Molson Coors Beverage (TAP)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $45.36 | Market Cap: $9.0 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Brewers
Molson Coors Beverage (TAP)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $45.36Market Cap: $9.0 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Brewers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.3% | |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 12% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TAP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Results
Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, missing analyst estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company reported an adjusted EPS of $1.67, which was $0.04 worse than the analyst estimate of $1.71, and revenue came in at $2.97 billion, below the consensus estimate of $3.04 billion.
2. Downward Revision of Full-Year 2025 Guidance
Following the Q3 results, Molson Coors lowered its full-year 2025 guidance, anticipating to be at the low end of its previously provided ranges for key financial metrics. The company projected a 3% to 4% decline in net sales on a constant currency basis, a 12% to 15% decline in underlying pre-tax income, and a 7% to 10% decline in underlying diluted EPS.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TAP Return | -15% | 4% | 14% | 22% | -3% | -19% | -4% |
| Peers Return | 45% | -19% | -7% | 12% | -13% | -10% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TAP Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 44% | 61% | 47% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TAP Max Drawdown | -39% | -3% | 0% | -5% | -18% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -27% | -23% | -8% | -22% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SAM, BUD, TAP. See TAP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TAP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1843 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SAM, BUD, TAP
In The Past
Molson Coors Beverage's stock fell -28.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/9/2021. A -28.3% loss requires a 39.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TAP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -5.1% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.7% | 1.7% | -3.6% |
| 10312019 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.4% | -31.6% | -36.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -5.1% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.7% | 1.7% | -3.6% |
| 10312019 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.4% | -31.6% | -36.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Molson Coors Beverage
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 61.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.9 |
| Rev LTM | 11,214 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,661 |
| FCF LTM | 653 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 688 |
| CFO LTM | 1,005 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,056 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.9 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 19.4 |
| P/CFO | 6.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -23.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -5.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 1.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | 1.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -4.5% | -2.4% | -7.7% |
| 2/13/2025 | 9.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.4% | 13.0% | 8.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.4% | 1.7% | 9.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | -9.9% | -9.9% | -16.6% |
| 2/13/2024 | -1.3% | 1.0% | 7.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.2% | 8.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -6.8% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.5% | 13.3% | 42.2% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -18.4% | -33.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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