Seagate Technology (STX)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $273.06 | Market Cap: $58.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Seagate Technology (STX)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $273.06Market Cap: $58.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 56x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 172%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 191% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Autonomous Technologies, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 149% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Autonomous Technologies, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 56x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 172%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 191% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 149% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
STX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Seagate Technology (STX) stock moved by 81% from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025:
1. Exceptional Financial Performance and Strong Guidance.
Seagate reported robust financial results for both its fiscal fourth quarter 2025 and first quarter 2026. For Q4 FY2025, revenue increased by 29.5% year-over-year to $2.44 billion, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) reaching $2.59, exceeding expectations. The positive momentum continued into Q1 FY2026, where the company reported $2.63 billion in revenue, marking a 21% year-over-year growth, and achieved a record non-GAAP gross margin of 40.1%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS for Q1 FY2026 was $2.61, surpassing the high end of their guided range. The company also provided strong Q2 FY2026 guidance, projecting revenue of about $2.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS of roughly $2.75, indicating continued profitability and growth.
2. Surging Demand for Mass-Capacity Storage, Driven by AI and Cloud.
A significant driver for Seagate's performance was the escalating demand for high-capacity storage solutions, particularly from global cloud providers and for artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. Nearline cloud sales constituted 91% of mass capacity exabytes shipped in the June quarter of 2025, representing a 52% year-over-year increase. This strong demand underscores Seagate's critical role in building out AI-ready data center infrastructure and hyperscale cloud environments.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STX Return | 234% | 234% | |||||
| Peers Return | 72% | 42% | -45% | 112% | 31% | 135% | 772% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STX Win Rate | |||||||
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 48% | 40% | 63% | 57% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STX Max Drawdown | |||||||
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -15% | -54% | -5% | -11% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NVDA, AMD, MU, WDC, LOGI. See STX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 936 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 395 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 819.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1181 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NVDA, AMD, MU, WDC, LOGI
In The Past
Seagate Technology's stock fell -58.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -58.2% loss requires a 139.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to STX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | STX | Seagate Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.4% | 29.8% | -8.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | STX | Seagate Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.4% | 29.8% | -8.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Seagate Technology
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 219.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 167.8 |
| Rev LTM | 22,653 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,902 |
| FCF LTM | 1,474 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 792 |
| CFO LTM | 4,050 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,221 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 39.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 32.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 167.8 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| P/EBIT | 30.2 |
| P/E | 36.8 |
| P/CFO | 45.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 23.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 60.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 138.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 108.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 373.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 21.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 56.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 122.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 83.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 338.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | 19.1% | 12.3% | |
| 7/29/2025 | -3.4% | -0.6% | 9.5% |
| 4/29/2025 | 11.6% | 15.1% | 44.8% |
| 1/21/2025 | 6.8% | -1.0% | 1.4% |
| 10/22/2024 | -8.1% | -10.0% | -13.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | 4.0% | -5.9% | -0.8% |
| 4/23/2024 | 0.7% | -0.7% | 9.4% |
| 1/24/2024 | 2.0% | -3.9% | -1.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.5% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 15.2% | 44.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.2% | -12.0% | -14.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 10/3/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-K 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1242025 | 10-Q 12/27/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-K 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1262024 | 10-Q 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/29/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1252023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-K 7/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 4/1/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1272022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |