Sirius XM (SIRI)
Market Price (11/10/2025): $21.78 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Sirius XM (SIRI)
Market Price (11/10/2025): $21.78Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 137% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 137% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SIRI Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SIRI Return | -10% | 1% | -3% | -4% | -59% | -0% | -66% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 248% | -8% | -28% | -11% | -7% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SIRI Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 47% | 35% | 40% | 47% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SIRI Max Drawdown | -38% | -9% | -6% | -41% | -63% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -6% | -20% | -39% | -28% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OMC, NXST, AMC, SBGI, UONE. See SIRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SIRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1217 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1508 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7445.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2457 days | 1480 days |
Compare to OMC, NXST, AMC, SBGI, UONE
In The Past
Sirius XM's stock fell -50.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/20/2023. A -50.3% loss requires a 101.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Sirius XM Earnings Notes | |||
| null | |||
| Sirius XM vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does SIRI Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than SIRI Stock: Pay Less Than Sirius XM To Get More From CHTR, JEF | |||
| Better Bet Than SIRI Stock: Pay Less Than Sirius XM To Get More From CHTR | |||
| SIRI Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Sirius XM During 2008 Recession vs. 2022 Inflation Shock: SIRI Stock Has 195% Upside If It Recovers To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels | Better Bets | ||
| Sirius XM (SIRI) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sirius XM (SIRI) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Sirius XM Stock | May 6th, 2025 | ||
| Down 50%, What’s Happening With Sirius Stock? | February 20th, 2025 | ||
| How Sirius XM Stock Can Fall 50% | January 10th, 2025 | ||
| Sirius Stock Down 50% This Year, What’s Happening? | December 16th, 2024 | ||
| Where Is Sirius Stock Headed Post Reverse Stock Split? | September 13th, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SIRI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -16.6% | -16.6% | -16.6% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -26.3% | -26.3% | -26.3% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.9% | -27.9% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.8% | -17.9% | |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.9% | -12.9% | -17.2% | |
| 08312024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.2% | -29.0% | -43.4% |
| 02292024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.0% | -46.4% | -54.9% |
| 08312023 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.5% | -23.1% | -41.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -16.6% | -16.6% | -16.6% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -26.3% | -26.3% | -26.3% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.9% | -27.9% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.8% | -17.9% | |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.9% | -12.9% | -17.2% | |
| 08312024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.2% | -29.0% | -43.4% |
| 02292024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.0% | -46.4% | -54.9% |
| 08312023 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.5% | -23.1% | -41.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sirius XM
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 5,008 |
| Op Inc LTM | 690 |
| FCF LTM | 597 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 538 |
| CFO LTM | 700 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 656 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 3.8 |
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/CFO | 3.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| D/E | 2.5 |
| Net D/E | 2.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -45.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -102.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 10.1% | 5.1% | |
| 7/31/2025 | -7.9% | -8.5% | 3.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -9.0% | -1.3% | 2.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 5.8% | 18.1% | 11.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | -3.3% | -0.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | -6.4% | -9.9% | -4.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | -7.3% | 0.3% | -12.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | 2.8% | -0.4% | -15.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -3.3% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 18.1% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -14.3% | -27.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | 8042025 | Buy | 21.04 | 1,977,837 | 41,620,811 | 2,562,153,606 | Form | |
| 1 | Salen Kristina | 6042025 | Sell | 21.28 | 1,651 | 35,133 | 462,244 | Form | |
| 2 | Salen Kristina | 5292025 | Sell | 22.27 | 1,651 | 36,768 | 344,539 | Form | |
| 3 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | 2032025 | Buy | 22.79 | 751,141 | 17,118,729 | 2,694,262,748 | Form | |
| 4 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | 12192024 | Buy | 22.13 | 1,440,000 | 31,862,448 | 2,521,220,835 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |