Shopify (SHOP)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $146.1 | Market Cap: $189.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Shopify (SHOP)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $146.1Market Cap: $189.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 113x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 99x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. | Short seller report |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 113x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 99x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| Short seller report |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SHOP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company Shopify (SHOP) experienced a 19.5% stock movement between July 31, 2025, and November 15, 2025, influenced by several key factors.
1. Strong Revenue and Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) Growth in Q2 and Q3 2025.
Shopify reported robust financial results for both the second and third quarters of 2025. In Q2 2025, the company achieved 31% revenue growth and saw an acceleration in GMV and revenue growth rates across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Building on this, Q3 2025 results surpassed analyst expectations, with revenue increasing 32% year-over-year to $2.84 billion and GMV growing 32% to $92 billion.
2. Consistent Free Cash Flow Generation.
Shopify demonstrated strong financial discipline, recording double-digit free cash flow margins for nine consecutive quarters, including an 18% free cash flow margin in Q3 2025. This consistent ability to generate substantial free cash flow underscores the company's operational efficiency and financial health.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHOP Return | 185% | 22% | -75% | 124% | 36% | 37% | 267% |
| Peers Return | 93% | 19% | -46% | 32% | 5% | 22% | 110% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHOP Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 67% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 32% | 60% | 48% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHOP Max Drawdown | -19% | -8% | -81% | 0% | -33% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -13% | -56% | -15% | -25% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY. See SHOP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHOP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 558.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1109 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY
In The Past
Shopify's stock fell -84.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -84.8% loss requires a 558.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Better Bet Than Shopify Stock: APP, DAVE Deliver More | Actionable | ||
| Wait For A Dip To Buy Shopify Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Dave vs Shopify: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Can Shopify Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| SHOP Soars 6.2% In A Single Day: How Does It Compare With Others? | |||
| SHOP Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Shopify Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 36.5% in 2024 and -8.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Shopify (SHOP) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Shopify (SHOP) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Shopify (SHOP) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Between AppLovin and Shopify, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out? | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| Why APP Could Outperform Shopify Stock | November 6th, 2025 | ||
| Shopify Stock To $121? | October 25th, 2025 | ||
| SHOP Shares Rally 6.5% In A Day, Wait For A Dip To Buy The Stock | October 4th, 2025 | ||
| SHOP Soars 6.2% In A Single Day: How Does It Compare With Others? | September 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SHOP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Shopify
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 188.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 73.9 |
| Rev LTM | 9,714 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,230 |
| FCF LTM | 1,656 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,528 |
| CFO LTM | 1,918 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,783 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 73.9 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 21.6 |
| P/E | 33.2 |
| P/CFO | 22.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 81.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.9% | -8.1% | |
| 8/6/2025 | 22.0% | 17.6% | 14.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.5% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 3.1% | 7.8% | -19.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # Negative | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 12.5% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -8.1% | -19.5% |
| Max Positive | 22.0% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -8.1% | -19.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |