Shopify (SHOP)
Market Price (11/9/2025): $152.98 | Market Cap: $198.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Shopify (SHOP)
Market Price (11/9/2025): $152.98Market Cap: $198.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 118x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 103x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 111x | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% | |
| Short seller report |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 118x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 103x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 111x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
| Short seller report |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SHOP Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHOP Return | 185% | 22% | -75% | 124% | 36% | 43% | 283% |
| Peers Return | 93% | 19% | -46% | 32% | 5% | 23% | 114% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHOP Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 67% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 32% | 60% | 48% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHOP Max Drawdown | -19% | -8% | -81% | 0% | -33% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -13% | -56% | -15% | -25% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY. See SHOP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHOP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 558.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1109 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY
In The Past
Shopify's stock fell -84.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -84.8% loss requires a 558.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SHOP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -4.1% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.7% | -1.7% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.6% | -0.6% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.1% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -4.1% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.7% | -1.7% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.6% | -0.6% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.1% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Shopify
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 188.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 74.1 |
| Rev LTM | 9,714 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,230 |
| FCF LTM | 1,656 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,528 |
| CFO LTM | 1,918 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,783 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 74.1 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 22.4 |
| P/E | 34.5 |
| P/CFO | 22.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 113.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 26.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.9% | ||
| 8/6/2025 | 22.0% | 17.6% | 14.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.5% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 3.1% | 7.8% | -19.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # Negative | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 12.5% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -19.5% | |
| Max Positive | 22.0% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -19.5% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |