Shopify (SHOP)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $127.66 | Market Cap: $166.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Shopify (SHOP)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $127.66Market Cap: $166.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 88x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 82x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 135x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% Short seller report Key risksSHOP key risks include [1] its large merchant base of small businesses, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 88x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 82x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 135x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Short seller report |
| Key risksSHOP key risks include [1] its large merchant base of small businesses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Shopify (SHOP) stock has lost about 5% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent High Valuation Led to a "Breather" for the Stock.
Despite strong business fundamentals, Shopify's stock has traded at a premium, with a P/E ratio around 133.58 as of April 28, 2026, and approximately 80x forward earnings as of February 2026. This elevated valuation, following a significant recovery in 2024 and 2025, prompted a "valuation breather" in the first two months of 2026, causing the stock to stumble as its price had gotten ahead of its fundamentals.
2. Macroeconomic Concerns, Particularly Tariffs, Created Uncertainty.
Heading into 2026, concerns surrounding tariffs introduced uncertainty, as Shopify's merchant base is substantially exposed to cross-border commerce. The removal of de minimis exemptions specifically contributed to this uncertainty regarding consumer demand and merchant sourcing, impacting investor sentiment.
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1. Persistent High Valuation Led to a "Breather" for the Stock.
Despite strong business fundamentals, Shopify's stock has traded at a premium, with a P/E ratio around 133.58 as of April 28, 2026, and approximately 80x forward earnings as of February 2026. This elevated valuation, following a significant recovery in 2024 and 2025, prompted a "valuation breather" in the first two months of 2026, causing the stock to stumble as its price had gotten ahead of its fundamentals.
2. Macroeconomic Concerns, Particularly Tariffs, Created Uncertainty.
Heading into 2026, concerns surrounding tariffs introduced uncertainty, as Shopify's merchant base is substantially exposed to cross-border commerce. The removal of de minimis exemptions specifically contributed to this uncertainty regarding consumer demand and merchant sourcing, impacting investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.7% change in SHOP stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 131.23 | 127.67 | -2.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,696 | 11,556 | 8.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.7% | 10.7% | -36.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 95.8 | 135.1 | 41.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,300 | 1,303 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOP | -2.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 56.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 12.6% | 60.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.6% change in SHOP stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 173.86 | 127.67 | -26.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,014 | 11,556 | 15.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.4% | 10.7% | -54.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 96.2 | 135.1 | 40.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,298 | 1,303 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOP | -26.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 58.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 8.0% | 59.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.4% change in SHOP stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 122.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 95.00 | 127.67 | 34.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,880 | 11,556 | 30.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.7% | 10.7% | -53.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 60.8 | 135.1 | 122.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,292 | 1,303 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 34.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 60.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 55.1% | 58.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 163.5% change in SHOP stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 106.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.45 | 127.67 | 163.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,600 | 11,556 | 106.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 11.0 | 14.4 | 30.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,273 | 1,303 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 163.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 163.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 58.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 119.1% | 55.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHOP Return | 22% | -75% | 124% | 36% | 51% | -25% | 7% |
| Peers Return | -18% | -53% | 38% | 26% | -14% | -14% | -51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHOP Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 67% | 50% | 67% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 28% | 62% | 53% | 43% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHOP Max Drawdown | -8% | -81% | 0% | -33% | -28% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -60% | -14% | -19% | -30% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LSPD, ADBE, TOST, PYPL, AMZN. See SHOP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHOP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 431.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1030 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Shopify's stock fell -39.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 66.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | SHOP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 431.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1030 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 173 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Shopify's stock fell -39.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 66.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Shopify (SHOP)
Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company's platform enables merchants to displays, manages, markets, and sells its products through various sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, pop-up shops, social media storefronts, native mobile apps, buy buttons, and marketplaces; and enables to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, new buyers and build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics and reporting, manage cash, payments and transactions, and access financing. It also sells custom themes and apps, and registration of domain names; and merchant solutions, which include accepting payments, shipping and fulfillment, and securing working capital. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.
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Shopify Major Products & Services
- Shopify E-commerce Platform: A comprehensive platform that enables merchants to build, manage, and scale their online stores and sell products across various sales channels, including web, mobile, social media, and physical locations.
- Custom Themes and Apps: A marketplace offering customizable storefront themes and a wide range of applications to extend the functionality of merchant stores.
- Domain Name Registration: A service that allows merchants to register and manage custom domain names for their online businesses.
- Payment Processing (Shopify Payments): Integrated services for merchants to accept payments from customers through various methods, process transactions, and manage cash flow.
- Shipping and Fulfillment Services: Tools and partnerships designed to help merchants manage their shipping logistics, fulfill orders, and track shipments efficiently.
- Working Capital (Shopify Capital): Financing solutions and cash advances offered to eligible merchants to help them fund their business operations and growth.
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Shopify (SHOP) primarily sells its commerce platform and services to other companies, specifically to merchants of various sizes who use the platform to manage and sell their products. Shopify's customer base is highly diversified, consisting of millions of businesses globally, ranging from small startups to large enterprises. While Shopify does not have a small number of "major customers" that account for a significant portion of its overall revenue in the traditional sense, it does serve many prominent and publicly recognized brands, particularly through its Shopify Plus enterprise offering. These customers are major in terms of their own scale and brand recognition.
Examples of such customer companies that have publicly utilized Shopify for their direct-to-consumer (D2C) operations or specific brands include:
- Allbirds (NASDAQ: BIRD)
- Brands under The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC)
- Brands under Hasbro, Inc. (NASDAQ: HAS)
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- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- Stripe Inc. (null)
- United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
- FedEx Corporation (FDX)
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Tobias Lütke, Chief Executive OfficerTobias Lütke is the co-founder and CEO of Shopify Inc., serving in this role since April 2008. He initially co-founded an online snowboard shop called Snowdevil in 2004, but due to the lack of efficient e-commerce tools, he decided to build his own platform, which launched as Shopify in 2006. Lütke's background as a programmer led him to build foundational technologies for Shopify, including contributions to the Ruby on Rails framework and the creation of Liquid and Active Merchant open-source libraries. Prior to becoming CEO, he served as the company's Chief Technology Officer.
Jeff Hoffmeister, Chief Financial Officer
Jeff Hoffmeister assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer at Shopify in October 2022. He has an extensive background in tech banking and finance, having spent over two decades in Morgan Stanley's Technology Investment Banking group, where he co-headed Americas Tech Banking. During his tenure at Morgan Stanley, Hoffmeister was involved in numerous high-profile transactions, including initial public offerings, and notably helped lead Shopify's 2015 IPO.
Harley Finkelstein, President
Harley Finkelstein is the President of Shopify Inc., having joined the company in 2010. He oversees Shopify's commercial teams, growth initiatives, and external affairs. Finkelstein is an entrepreneur who founded his first company at the age of 17 while attending McGill University. He previously held the position of Chief Operating Officer at Shopify and co-founded Firebelly Tea, a modern high-end tea brand.
Mikhail Parakhin, Chief Technology Officer
Mikhail Parakhin joined Shopify Inc. as Chief Technology Officer in 2025. In this role, he is responsible for the company's technology strategy, fostering innovation, and scaling Shopify's infrastructure and platform capabilities for merchants globally. He brings significant experience in software engineering and technology leadership, particularly in scaling complex digital platforms.
Tia Silas, Chief Human Resources Officer
Tia Silas serves as the Chief Human Resources Officer at Shopify. She is responsible for fostering a positive workplace culture within the company.
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Here are the key risks to Shopify's business:
-
Intense Competition and Market Saturation: Shopify operates in a highly competitive e-commerce landscape, facing significant rivalry from established giants like Amazon, as well as other platforms such as BigCommerce, Wix, Squarespace, and Adobe Commerce. The e-commerce market is maturing, making it challenging for Shopify to maintain its rapid growth trajectory and differentiate its offerings. Aggressive pricing strategies from competitors and shifts in merchant platform preferences pose ongoing threats to Shopify's market share and profitability.
-
Macroeconomic Headwinds: Economic downturns, persistent inflation, and global trade issues like tariffs can significantly impact consumer spending patterns and, consequently, the performance and margins of Shopify's merchants. A shift towards more cautious consumer spending, for instance, can directly challenge the revenue streams for small and medium-sized businesses utilizing the Shopify platform. Such external economic pressures can lead to reduced sales volumes for merchants and affect Shopify's overall gross merchandise volume (GMV) and subscription revenue growth.
-
Evolving Regulatory and Compliance Landscape: Operating across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America exposes Shopify to a complex and ever-changing web of international and local regulations. Key areas of concern include data privacy laws (e.g., CCPA, GDPR), consumer protection standards, product safety, intellectual property rights, and advertising regulations. Non-compliance by Shopify or its merchants can result in substantial fines, legal challenges, reputational damage, and even the suspension of merchant accounts due to violations of Shopify's own acceptable use policies and terms of service.
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The increasing integration of comprehensive, end-to-end e-commerce functionalities by major advertising and social media platforms (such as Meta and Google) directly into their ecosystems. These platforms could potentially evolve to allow merchants to operate primarily within their "walled gardens" for selling, payments, and customer management, thereby reducing the necessity for a dedicated independent storefront platform like Shopify.AI Analysis | Feedback
Shopify (symbol: SHOP) operates within several large addressable markets for its main products and services:
- E-commerce Platform: The global e-commerce platform market size was valued at approximately USD 11.55 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 61.83 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.49% during the forecast period. Shopify holds approximately 10.32% of the global e-commerce platform market share (2025) and commands about 30% of the U.S. e-commerce platform market share (2025). The broader global e-commerce market, which encompasses all online sales, was valued at USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 83.19 trillion by 2035.
- Payment Processing Solutions: The global payment processing solutions market size was estimated at USD 173.38 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach around USD 1051.93 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 19.76% from 2026 to 2035. North America is projected to dominate this global market with the largest market share of 47% in 2025. Shopify's Merchant Solutions revenue, which primarily consists of payment processing fees, generated $6.53 billion in 2024.
- Shipping and Fulfillment Services: The global e-commerce fulfillment services market size is accounted for at USD 141.35 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase from USD 161.48 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 468.44 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 14.24% from 2025 to 2034. Asia Pacific dominated the global market with the largest market share of 29% in 2024, while North America is projected to show the fastest growth during the forecast period.
- Working Capital for Merchants: The global working capital loan market was valued at USD 1.5 trillion in 2024 and is forecast to reach USD 2.8 trillion by 2033. Shopify provides access to financing through initiatives like Shopify Capital.
- Custom Themes, Apps, and Domain Name Registration: Null. While Shopify offers custom themes, apps, and domain name registration as part of its subscription solutions, a specific addressable market size for these individual components, separate from the broader e-commerce platform market, was not identified in the search results.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Shopify (SHOP) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Merchant Base and Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), including International Expansion: Shopify anticipates continued revenue growth from expanding its global merchant base and increasing the total value of merchandise sold through its platform (GMV). This strategy involves attracting new merchants, scaling existing businesses (particularly those utilizing Shopify Plus for high-volume sales), and robust international expansion, which has already shown strong growth in international GMV and merchant acquisition outside North America.
- Increased Penetration and Adoption of Merchant Solutions, especially Shopify Payments: A significant driver of Shopify's revenue comes from its Merchant Solutions segment, with a strong emphasis on Shopify Payments. Future growth is expected from further increasing the penetration of Shopify Payments within the overall GMV, alongside the broader adoption of other integrated merchant services such as shipping and fulfillment.
- Advancements in AI-Powered Commerce and Platform Enhancements: Shopify is strategically investing in artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance its platform, with initiatives like "agentic commerce," AI-powered personalization, and new tools such as Shopify Sidekick. Continuous innovation in the core platform, including support for headless commerce, improved omnichannel capabilities, and advanced enterprise-grade solutions (e.g., Commerce Components, Shopify Plus), are expected to attract and retain merchants by providing more flexible, powerful, and scalable commerce tools, thereby driving revenue growth.
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<h3>Share Repurchases</h3>
<ul>
<li>Shopify's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2 billion for its Class A subordinate voting shares, capped at 5% of issued and outstanding shares.</li>
<li>This share repurchase program was announced in February 2026 and is slated to go into effect on February 17, 2026, with no fixed expiration date.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Share Issuance</h3>
<ul>
<li>In the first quarter of 2021, Shopify completed an offering of Class A subordinate voting shares, generating $1.5 billion in net proceeds.</li>
<li>In September 2020, Shopify raised approximately $1.91 billion through a public offering, which included the issuance of 1.1 million Class A subordinate voting shares at $900 per share (totaling $990 million) and $800 million in convertible senior notes due 2025.</li>
<li>Shopify's annual net common equity issued/repurchased showed positive figures, with $0.232 billion in 2025, $0.061 billion in 2024, and $0.06 billion in 2023, indicating net issuance or minimal repurchases during these years.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Outbound Investments</h3>
<ul>
<li>Shopify acquired Deliverr, an e-commerce fulfillment startup, for $2.1 billion in cash and stock in May 2022.</li>
<li>The company made several strategic acquisitions to enhance its platform and offerings, including Primer (June 2021), Donde ($50.7 million in October 2021), Dovetale (April 2022), Remix (October 2022), Checkout Blocks (June 2024), Threads (June 2024), ChannelApe (July 2024), Vantage Discovery (March 2025), and Molly Studio (August 2025).</li>
<li>In May 2023, Shopify divested its logistics business, including Deliverr and 6 River Systems, to Flexport, receiving a 13% stake in Flexport as part of the transaction.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Capital Expenditures</h3>
<ul>
<li>Shopify's capital expenditures have been a relatively small percentage of its revenue, with CapEx as a percentage of revenue ranging from 0.16% in June 2025 to a high of 1.32% in June 2022.</li>
<li>In 2025, Shopify invested in products such as Catalog, Sidekick, Universal Commerce Protocol, and its broader commerce platform, particularly focusing on AI-driven commerce initiatives.</li>
<li>The company's CapEx to Depreciation ratio was 0.84 in 2025, indicating ongoing investment in fixed assets relative to their depreciation.</li>
</ul>Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to SHOP.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 74.9 |
| Rev LTM | 18,004 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,140 |
| FCF LTM | 1,308 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,510 |
| CFO LTM | 4,224 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,884 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 65.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 74.9 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.6 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 23.0 |
| P/CFO | 21.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -24.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -41.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $127.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 166.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/21/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $122.68 | $142.00 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.1% | -10.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 61.6% | 55.2% |
| Downside Capture | 1.82 | 1.60 |
| Upside Capture | 233.50 | 243.80 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 55.8% | 60.1% |
SHOP Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.37 | 2.05 | 2.33 | 2.42 | 2.65 | 2.21 |
| Up Beta | 2.26 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 1.85 | 2.74 | 2.12 |
| Down Beta | 6.89 | 1.42 | 2.08 | 2.44 | 2.50 | 2.31 |
| Up Capture | 135% | 210% | 275% | 259% | 481% | 2465% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 31 | 59 | 125 | 388 |
| Down Capture | 553% | 214% | 258% | 226% | 185% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 33 | 66 | 126 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 32.4% | 55.2% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 55.3% | 20.5% | 2.04 | 59.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 60.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | -7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 19.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.2% | 42.1% | -0.36 | 31.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 1.5% | 65.1% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.6% | 24.8% | 0.67 | 60.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 60.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 38.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.4% | 56.1% | 0.35 | 29.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 44.4% | 58.7% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.6% | 24.4% | 0.88 | 59.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 54.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 19.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | -6.7% | -4.4% | -0.8% |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.9% | -8.1% | -6.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | 22.0% | 17.6% | 14.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.5% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 3.1% | 7.8% | -19.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # Negative | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 12.5% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -6.3% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 22.0% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -8.1% | -19.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 6-K |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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