Tearsheet

Shopify (SHOP)


Market Price (10/26/2025): $173.5 | Market Cap: $225.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Shopify (SHOP)


Market Price (10/26/2025): $173.5
Market Cap: $225.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 147x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 122x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 96x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 119%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 147x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 122x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 96x
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 119%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

SHOP Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SHOP Return185%22%-75%124%36%63%335%
Peers Return93%19%-46%32%5%32%129%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SHOP Win Rate67%67%25%67%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%50%32%60%48%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SHOP Max Drawdown-19%-8%-81%0%-33%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-13%-56%-15%-25%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY. See SHOP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSHOPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-84.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven558.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1109 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven32 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven46 days120 days

Compare to AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY


In The Past

Shopify's stock fell -84.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -84.8% loss requires a 558.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Shopify (SHOP)

Better Bets than Shopify (SHOP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SHOP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADBE_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025ADBEAdobeMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%0.2%-6.7%
CRM_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025CRMSalesforceMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
7.5%7.5%-0.6%
MPWR_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
16.8%16.8%-1.8%
POWI_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09262025POWIPower IntegrationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
7.5%7.5%-13.4%
ROP_9262025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09262025ROPRoper TechnologiesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.9%-3.9%-3.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADBE_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025ADBEAdobeMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%0.2%-6.7%
CRM_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025CRMSalesforceMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
7.5%7.5%-0.6%
MPWR_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
16.8%16.8%-1.8%
POWI_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09262025POWIPower IntegrationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
7.5%7.5%-13.4%
ROP_9262025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09262025ROPRoper TechnologiesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.9%-3.9%-3.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Shopify

Financials

SHOPAMZNSNOWWDAYEBAYETSYMedian
NameShopify Amazon.c.SnowflakeWorkday eBay Etsy  
Mkt Price172.95224.21257.94242.7597.2073.90198.58
Mkt Cap224.42,384.986.564.845.47.675.6
Rev LTM10,014670,0384,1168,95910,3122,8389,486
Op Inc LTM1,53176,190-1,5407782,3033981,154
FCF LTM1,81713,4817342,3922,1286351,972
FCF 3Y Avg1,07621,6777152,0231,9486601,512
CFO LTM1,833121,1378382,5912,5866902,210
CFO 3Y Avg1,10696,9778032,2622,4237051,684

Growth & Margins

SHOPAMZNSNOWWDAYEBAYETSYMedian
NameShopify Amazon.c.SnowflakeWorkday eBay Etsy  
Rev Chg LTM29.0%10.9%28.4%13.9%1.5%2.4%12.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg26.0%11.3%36.3%16.5%0.2%5.6%13.9%
Rev Chg Q31.1%13.3%31.8%12.6%1.1%3.8%13.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.8%3.0%7.2%3.0%0.3%0.9%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM15.3%11.4%-37.4%8.7%22.3%14.0%12.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.4%7.9%-39.1%4.1%21.6%13.4%6.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.3%3.1%1.3%-0.2%0.1%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM18.3%18.1%20.4%28.9%25.1%24.3%22.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.7%15.8%25.3%28.7%24.0%25.5%24.7%
FCF/Rev LTM18.1%2.0%17.8%26.7%20.6%22.4%19.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.2%3.5%22.5%25.6%19.3%23.9%20.9%

Valuation

SHOPAMZNSNOWWDAYEBAYETSYMedian
NameShopify Amazon.c.SnowflakeWorkday eBay Etsy  
Mkt Cap224.42,384.986.564.845.47.675.6
P/S22.43.621.07.24.42.75.8
P/EBIT146.628.0-63.174.517.318.123.1
P/E95.733.8-62.7111.122.346.540.1
P/CFO122.419.7103.225.017.611.122.3
Total Yield1.0%3.0%-1.6%0.9%5.7%2.2%1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.0%1.1%1.3%3.3%6.9%9.5%2.3%
D/E0.00.10.00.10.20.40.1
Net D/E-0.00.0-0.0-0.10.10.20.0

Returns

SHOPAMZNSNOWWDAYEBAYETSYMedian
NameShopify Amazon.c.SnowflakeWorkday eBay Etsy  
1M Rtn20.6%2.8%16.4%0.0%4.4%16.2%10.3%
3M Rtn39.0%-3.1%17.5%0.4%19.7%18.3%17.9%
6M Rtn78.1%18.6%62.8%1.3%44.3%61.1%52.7%
12M Rtn118.8%19.4%122.3%2.1%56.5%51.9%54.2%
3Y Rtn495.1%93.9%52.2%56.9%160.6%-27.1%75.4%
1M Excs Rtn17.7%-0.1%13.6%-2.8%1.6%13.4%7.5%
3M Excs Rtn30.1%-10.0%11.7%-4.3%17.1%11.5%11.6%
6M Excs Rtn55.2%-4.3%39.9%-21.6%21.4%38.2%29.8%
12M Excs Rtn95.8%2.1%107.3%-17.7%39.9%33.7%36.8%
3Y Excs Rtn426.3%11.0%-33.0%-18.1%88.9%-105.5%-3.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment7,0605,6004,6122,9291,578
Total7,0605,6004,6122,9291,578


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,986,479
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-2.4%
Average Daily Volume8,767,958
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.39
Basic Shares Quantity1,297,746,050
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/202522.0%17.6%14.3%
5/8/2025-0.5%17.9%17.9%
2/11/20253.1%7.8%-19.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive232
# Negative101
Median Positive12.5%17.6%16.1%
Median Negative-0.5% -19.5%
Max Positive22.0%17.9%17.9%
Max Negative-0.5% -19.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
630202480720246-K 6/30/2024
331202450820246-K 3/31/2024
12312023213202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202350420236-K 3/31/2023
12312022216202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022102720226-K 9/30/2022
630202272720226-K 6/30/2022
331202250520226-K 3/31/2022
12312021216202240-F 12/31/2021
9302021102820216-K 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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