Tearsheet

Starbucks (SBUX)


Market Price (10/18/2025): $85.3 | Market Cap: $96.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Starbucks (SBUX)


Market Price (10/18/2025): $85.3
Market Cap: $96.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

SBUX Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SBUX Return24%11%-13%-1%-2%-6%2%
Peers Return25%20%-2%29%15%-2%113%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SBUX Win Rate67%50%42%58%50%44% 
Peers Win Rate65%53%43%60%55%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SBUX Max Drawdown-36%-10%-40%-8%-24%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-6%-23%-4%-8%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See SBUX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventSBUXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven236 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven131 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven406.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven840 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Starbucks's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/26/2021. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than Starbucks (SBUX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SBUX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%
SBUX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022SBUXStarbucksDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.2%57.7%-6.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%
SBUX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022SBUXStarbucksDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.2%57.7%-6.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Starbucks

Financials

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Price85.36308.0941.86145.2567.38177.48115.31
Mkt Cap97.0220.156.340.522.111.848.4
Rev LTM36,68926,06011,5787,9079,1065,67110,342
Op Inc LTM3,83612,0231,9992,4392,3485232,394
FCF LTM2,2546,8971,4661,5341,3543731,500
FCF 3Y Avg3,0216,8771,3391,3941,2402961,367
CFO LTM4,9019,7932,0921,8341,5887421,963
CFO 3Y Avg5,5239,3731,9201,6821,4056331,801

Growth & Margins

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Rev Chg LTM0.6%1.2%8.6%11.3%21.8%14.6%9.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.7%3.4%12.5%5.9%14.2%14.5%9.2%
Rev Chg Q3.8%5.4%3.0%9.6%15.9%12.7%7.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%1.4%0.8%2.2%3.8%3.1%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM10.5%46.1%17.3%30.8%25.8%9.2%21.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.3%45.9%16.9%31.7%28.8%8.7%22.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%0.3%-0.4%-0.5%-0.6%-0.2%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM13.4%37.6%18.1%23.2%17.4%13.1%17.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.3%37.0%18.3%22.9%18.1%12.6%18.2%
FCF/Rev LTM6.1%26.5%12.7%19.4%14.9%6.6%13.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%27.2%12.8%19.0%16.0%5.9%14.4%

Valuation

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Cap97.0220.156.340.522.111.848.4
P/S2.68.44.95.12.42.13.8
P/EBIT23.818.228.216.510.322.520.4
P/E36.826.236.528.325.726.927.6
P/CFO19.822.526.922.113.915.920.9
Total Yield5.5%6.1%2.7%5.4%8.7%4.5%5.5%
Dividend Yield2.8%2.3%0.0%1.9%4.8%0.8%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%3.4%1.9%3.6%5.5%2.8%3.2%
D/E0.30.30.10.30.70.10.3
Net D/E0.20.20.10.30.70.10.2

Returns

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
1M Rtn2.6%1.0%5.5%-2.0%5.5%8.0%4.0%
3M Rtn-8.4%4.3%-22.4%-2.0%-1.6%-3.2%-2.6%
6M Rtn6.2%0.1%-13.1%2.3%8.6%10.4%4.3%
12M Rtn-8.1%0.2%-28.9%10.7%-1.6%-1.2%-1.4%
3Y Rtn3.6%32.5%35.6%38.0%34.2%94.1%34.9%
1M Excs Rtn1.8%1.8%4.7%-0.5%6.6%10.6%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-13.0%-0.9%-25.9%-5.4%-6.9%-8.3%-7.6%
6M Excs Rtn-20.0%-26.1%-39.2%-23.8%-17.5%-15.7%-21.9%
12M Excs Rtn-22.5%-14.0%-44.6%-3.4%-16.4%-15.4%-15.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-80.2%-47.1%-48.8%-40.5%-44.5%12.2%-45.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity44,046,184
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-1.7%
Average Daily Volume9,017,258
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.88
Basic Shares Quantity1,136,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/2025-0.2%-3.0%-5.1%
4/29/2025-5.7%-2.4%-0.2%
1/28/20258.1%10.1%14.6%
10/22/20240.9%0.6%2.1%
7/30/20242.6%-0.8%26.3%
4/30/2024-15.9%-18.1%-10.3%
1/30/2024-1.1%1.7%1.5%
11/2/20239.5%14.2%9.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11912
# Negative131512
Median Positive3.7%2.6%9.3%
Median Negative-3.2%-2.4%-4.2%
Max Positive9.8%15.0%26.3%
Max Negative-15.9%-18.1%-14.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025729202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024128202510-Q 12/29/2024
93020241120202410-K 9/29/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023130202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231117202310-K 10/1/2023
6302023801202310-Q 7/2/2023
3312023502202310-Q 4/2/2023
12312022202202310-Q 1/1/2023
93020221118202210-K 10/2/2022
6302022802202210-Q 7/3/2022
3312022503202210-Q 4/3/2022
12312021201202210-Q 1/2/2022
93020211119202110-K 10/3/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Ruggeri Rachelevp, cfo11222024Sell99.541,491148,4147,975,564Form