Tearsheet

Starbucks (SBUX)


Market Price (11/13/2025): $87.12 | Market Cap: $99.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Starbucks (SBUX)


Market Price (11/13/2025): $87.12
Market Cap: $99.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

SBUX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Poor Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results. Reported on July 29, 2025, Starbucks announced a 2% decline in global comparable store sales and North America comparable store sales. Operating income and margin significantly decreased, and net income fell sharply by 47%, with adjusted earnings per share missing analyst expectations.

2. Missed Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Per Share and Contracted Operating Margins. While Q4 results (reported October 29, 2025) showed a return to global comparable store sales growth, North America comparable sales remained flat. The company's non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.52 missed consensus estimates of $0.55, and the operating margin contracted significantly to 9.4% due to investments in labor and restructuring costs.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SBUX Return24%11%-13%-1%-2%-3%13%
Peers Return32%25%-5%30%22%-8%126%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SBUX Win Rate67%50%42%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%54%42%58%60%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SBUX Max Drawdown-36%-10%-40%-8%-24%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-41%-5%-23%-4%-7%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See SBUX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSBUXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven236 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven131 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven406.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven840 days1480 days

Compare to MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH


In The Past

Starbucks's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/26/2021. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Starbucks (SBUX)

Better Bets than Starbucks (SBUX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SBUX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-4.2%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.2%-1.2%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.4%-1.4%-2.5%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.2%13.2%-6.2%
SBUX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022SBUXStarbucksDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.2%57.7%-6.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-4.2%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.2%-1.2%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.4%-1.4%-2.5%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.2%13.2%-6.2%
SBUX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022SBUXStarbucksDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.2%57.7%-6.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Starbucks

Financials

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Price87.26306.9431.32149.3769.14167.59118.31
Mkt Cap99.2218.841.841.522.711.141.7
Rev LTM36,68926,26311,7878,0619,1065,83410,447
Op Inc LTM3,83612,1131,9962,4852,3485172,416
FCF LTM2,2547,3721,5731,5641,3543411,569
FCF 3Y Avg3,0217,0491,4041,4131,2402911,408
CFO LTM4,90110,4852,2151,9061,5887472,060
CFO 3Y Avg5,5239,7041,9931,7121,4056481,853

Growth & Margins

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Rev Chg LTM0.6%1.2%7.3%11.6%21.8%14.4%9.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.7%4.2%11.9%6.4%14.2%14.4%9.2%
Rev Chg Q3.8%3.0%7.5%8.4%15.9%12.8%8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%0.8%1.8%1.9%3.8%2.9%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM10.5%46.1%16.9%30.8%25.8%8.9%21.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.3%45.9%17.0%31.7%28.8%8.6%22.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-0.0%-0.3%-0.0%-0.6%-0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM13.4%39.9%18.8%23.6%17.4%12.8%18.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.3%37.7%18.6%23.0%18.1%12.6%18.3%
FCF/Rev LTM6.1%28.1%13.3%19.4%14.9%5.8%14.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%27.4%13.1%18.9%16.0%5.6%14.6%

Valuation

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Cap99.2218.841.841.522.711.141.7
P/S2.78.33.55.22.51.93.1
P/EBIT24.317.920.916.610.621.519.4
P/E37.726.027.228.726.425.526.8
P/CFO20.220.918.921.814.314.919.6
Total Yield5.4%6.2%3.7%5.4%8.5%4.7%5.4%
Dividend Yield2.7%2.3%0.0%1.9%4.7%0.8%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%3.4%2.4%3.6%5.8%3.0%3.2%
D/E0.30.30.10.30.70.10.3
Net D/E0.20.20.10.30.70.10.2

Returns

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
1M Rtn9.0%2.3%-23.4%6.3%3.5%-2.5%2.9%
3M Rtn-7.3%1.2%-28.0%3.7%6.5%-3.9%-1.4%
6M Rtn2.2%1.0%-40.0%3.9%3.6%-10.7%1.6%
12M Rtn-9.4%5.2%-48.2%13.1%6.5%-13.3%-2.1%
3Y Rtn-4.3%21.2%4.0%28.3%25.9%83.5%23.5%
1M Excs Rtn4.4%-2.3%-28.7%0.6%-2.4%-4.4%-2.4%
3M Excs Rtn-12.1%-6.0%-33.4%-3.6%1.2%-8.6%-7.3%
6M Excs Rtn-14.0%-15.3%-56.3%-12.4%-12.7%-27.0%-14.7%
12M Excs Rtn-22.5%-9.2%-61.0%-3.3%-8.7%-28.3%-15.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-75.8%-61.0%-67.8%-50.8%-53.3%3.7%-57.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity38,156,209
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-3.7%
Average Daily Volume9,576,442
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.98
Basic Shares Quantity1,136,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-1.2%-1.5% 
7/29/2025-0.2%-3.0%-5.1%
4/29/2025-5.7%-2.4%-0.2%
1/28/20258.1%10.1%14.6%
10/22/20240.9%0.6%2.1%
7/30/20242.6%-0.8%26.3%
4/30/2024-15.9%-18.1%-10.3%
1/30/2024-1.1%1.7%1.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10911
# Negative141513
Median Positive4.0%2.6%9.4%
Median Negative-3.1%-2.4%-4.2%
Max Positive9.8%15.0%26.3%
Max Negative-15.9%-18.1%-14.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025729202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024128202510-Q 12/29/2024
93020241120202410-K 9/29/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023130202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231117202310-K 10/1/2023
6302023801202310-Q 7/2/2023
3312023502202310-Q 4/2/2023
12312022202202310-Q 1/1/2023
93020221118202210-K 10/2/2022
6302022802202210-Q 7/3/2022
3312022503202210-Q 4/3/2022
12312021201202210-Q 1/2/2022
93020211119202110-K 10/3/2021

Insider Activity

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