Tearsheet

Starbucks (SBUX)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $85.37 | Market Cap: $97.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Starbucks (SBUX)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $85.37
Market Cap: $97.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SBUX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the approximate -2.9% movement in Starbucks (SBUX) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Earnings per Share and Margin Contraction: Starbucks reported its Q4 2025 earnings on October 29, 2025, where GAAP earnings per share decreased 85% and adjusted EPS fell 35% year-over-year, missing analysts' consensus estimates. While consolidated net revenues increased, operating income significantly decreased, and the operating margin contracted. This was primarily attributed to restructuring costs, substantial investments in the "Back to Starbucks" initiatives (particularly labor hours), and ongoing inflationary pressures.

2. Expanding Labor Disputes and Significant Legal Settlement: Starbucks faced escalating labor challenges during this period. The company was hit with a $35 million settlement to over 15,000 New York City workers due to issues with unstable schedules and arbitrary hour cutting. Concurrently, labor strikes expanded from 65 to 120 locations around the Black Friday period, with workers demanding improved hours and wages. These ongoing disputes and the large settlement likely contributed to negative investor sentiment regarding operational stability and potential future cost increases.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SBUX Return24%11%-13%-1%-2%-4%11%
Peers Return25%20%-2%29%15%-3%111%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SBUX Win Rate67%50%42%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate65%53%43%60%55%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SBUX Max Drawdown-36%-10%-40%-8%-24%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-6%-23%-4%-8%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See SBUX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSBUXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven236 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven131 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven406.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven840 days1480 days

Compare to MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH


In The Past

Starbucks's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/26/2021. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Starbucks (SBUX)

Better Bets than Starbucks (SBUX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SBUX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
SBUX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022SBUXStarbucksDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.2%57.7%-6.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
SBUX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022SBUXStarbucksDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.2%57.7%-6.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Starbucks

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Price85.00308.5434.15145.8671.93167.13115.43
Mkt Cap96.6220.045.640.523.611.143.1
Rev LTM36,68926,26311,7878,0619,1065,83410,447
Op Inc LTM3,83612,1131,9962,4852,3485172,416
FCF LTM2,2547,3721,5731,5641,3543411,569
FCF 3Y Avg3,0217,0491,4041,4131,2402911,408
CFO LTM4,90110,4852,2151,9061,5887472,060
CFO 3Y Avg5,5239,7041,9931,7121,4056481,853

Growth & Margins

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Rev Chg LTM0.6%1.2%7.3%11.6%21.8%14.4%9.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.7%4.2%11.9%6.4%14.2%14.4%9.2%
Rev Chg Q3.8%3.0%7.5%8.4%15.9%12.8%8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%0.8%1.8%1.9%3.8%2.9%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM10.5%46.1%16.9%30.8%25.8%8.9%21.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.3%45.9%17.0%31.7%28.8%8.6%22.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-0.0%-0.3%-0.0%-0.6%-0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM13.4%39.9%18.8%23.6%17.4%12.8%18.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.3%37.7%18.6%23.0%18.1%12.6%18.3%
FCF/Rev LTM6.1%28.1%13.3%19.4%14.9%5.8%14.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%27.4%13.1%18.9%16.0%5.6%14.6%

Valuation

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Cap96.6220.045.640.523.611.143.1
P/S2.88.24.45.22.31.93.6
P/EBIT25.617.726.216.99.821.319.5
P/E39.625.734.029.224.525.227.5
P/CFO21.220.723.622.213.214.821.0
Total Yield5.1%6.2%2.9%5.3%9.2%4.8%5.2%
Dividend Yield2.6%2.3%0.0%1.8%5.1%0.8%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%3.4%2.4%3.6%5.8%3.0%3.2%
D/E0.30.30.10.30.80.10.3
Net D/E0.20.20.10.20.70.10.2

Returns

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
1M Rtn7.6%3.7%7.6%-2.0%8.6%3.5%5.6%
3M Rtn-1.6%-2.1%-17.5%2.0%17.0%-0.9%-1.3%
6M Rtn-0.9%1.0%-35.1%3.1%2.7%-12.1%0.0%
12M Rtn-13.3%7.0%-46.5%7.6%5.0%-14.8%-4.2%
3Y Rtn-11.7%21.8%8.7%18.0%19.5%82.8%18.8%
1M Excs Rtn6.3%2.5%6.3%-3.3%7.3%2.2%4.4%
3M Excs Rtn-5.6%-7.1%-22.6%-4.4%9.3%-6.4%-6.0%
6M Excs Rtn-16.4%-14.4%-50.5%-12.4%-12.8%-27.6%-15.4%
12M Excs Rtn-27.4%-5.4%-57.0%-6.5%-6.3%-27.5%-16.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-80.6%-50.7%-63.3%-50.7%-50.9%7.5%-50.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity44,794,976
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202517.4%
Average Daily Volume12,543,488
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.57
Basic Shares Quantity1,136,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025729202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024128202510-Q 12/29/2024
93020241120202410-K 9/29/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023130202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231117202310-K 10/1/2023
6302023801202310-Q 7/2/2023
3312023502202310-Q 4/2/2023
12312022202202310-Q 1/1/2023
93020221118202210-K 10/2/2022
6302022802202210-Q 7/3/2022
3312022503202210-Q 4/3/2022
12312021201202210-Q 1/2/2022
93020211119202110-K 10/3/2021