Starbucks (SBUX)
Market Price (11/19/2025): $83.44 | Market Cap: $94.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Starbucks (SBUX)
Market Price (11/19/2025): $83.44Market Cap: $94.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -74% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -74% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SBUX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Starbucks (SBUX) stock moved by -5.2% for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 19, 2025:
1. Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Miss and Margin Contraction: Starbucks reported mixed financial results for its Q3 fiscal year 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) missing analyst expectations at $0.50 against a forecast of $0.65, representing a 47% year-over-year decline. Operating income and margins also contracted significantly, with the operating margin falling to 13.3% from 21.0% in the prior year, primarily due to investments in the "Back to Starbucks" plan, including additional labor, and inflationary pressures. A significant non-recurring investment in "Leadership Experience 2025" and a discrete tax item collectively impacted Q3 EPS by $0.11. The company also refrained from providing specific guidance for Q4 due to an uncertain consumer environment.
2. Extensive Store Closures and Layoffs as Part of Restructuring: Starbucks announced a major restructuring effort in late September 2025, which included closing hundreds of underperforming stores across North America and laying off approximately 900 non-retail employees. The company anticipates its North American company-operated store count to decline by about 1% in fiscal year 2025. This restructuring is projected to incur a cost of $1 billion, covering employee separation benefits and expenses related to store closures and lease exits. While viewed as necessary by some analysts, the magnitude of these actions contributed to market caution.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SBUX Return | 24% | 11% | -13% | -1% | -2% | -6% | 9% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 20% | -2% | 29% | 15% | -6% | 106% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SBUX Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 53% | 43% | 60% | 55% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SBUX Max Drawdown | -36% | -10% | -40% | -8% | -24% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -6% | -23% | -4% | -8% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See SBUX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/18/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SBUX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 406.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 840 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH
In The Past
Starbucks's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/26/2021. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SBUX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.3% | -4.3% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 04302022 | SBUX | Starbucks | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.2% | 57.7% | -6.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.3% | -4.3% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 04302022 | SBUX | Starbucks | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.2% | 57.7% | -6.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Starbucks
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 116.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.2 |
| Rev LTM | 10,447 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,416 |
| FCF LTM | 1,569 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,408 |
| CFO LTM | 2,060 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,853 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.2 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 19.2 |
| P/E | 26.4 |
| P/CFO | 18.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.2% | -1.5% | |
| 7/29/2025 | -0.2% | -3.0% | -5.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | -5.7% | -2.4% | -0.2% |
| 1/28/2025 | 8.1% | 10.1% | 14.6% |
| 10/22/2024 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 2.6% | -0.8% | 26.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | -15.9% | -18.1% | -10.3% |
| 1/30/2024 | -1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 2.6% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.4% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 15.0% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -18.1% | -14.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1282025 | 10-Q 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11202024 | 10-K 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1302024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11172023 | 10-K 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11182022 | 10-K 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2012022 | 10-Q 1/2/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11192021 | 10-K 10/3/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
