Cassava Sciences (SAVA)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $3.28 | Market Cap: $158.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Cassava Sciences (SAVA)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $3.28Market Cap: $158.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -71% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -149%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -167% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -131 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 102% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -82% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 131% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -71% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -149%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -167% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -131 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 102% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -82% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 131% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SAVA Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAVA Return | 31% | 541% | -32% | -24% | -90% | 39% | -27% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 22% | 10% | -18% | 39% | 19% | 73% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAVA Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 42% | 78% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 33% | 43% | 30% | 28% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAVA Max Drawdown | -61% | 0% | -63% | -57% | -90% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -25% | -39% | -37% | -38% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BIIB, TRVI, AVXL, APM, BBOT. See SAVA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SAVA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 970.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -78.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 373.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -92.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1288.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 641 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112800.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 851 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BIIB, TRVI, AVXL, APM, BBOT
In The Past
Cassava Sciences's stock fell -90.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/28/2021. A -90.7% loss requires a 970.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SAVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ADMA | ADMA Biologics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | -4.6% |
| 09302025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -0.8% |
| 09262025 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.8% | 3.8% | -0.1% |
| 09192025 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.0% | 14.0% | -4.3% |
| 09052025 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.5% | 13.5% | -8.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ADMA | ADMA Biologics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | -4.6% |
| 09302025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -0.8% |
| 09262025 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.8% | 3.8% | -0.1% |
| 09192025 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.0% | 14.0% | -4.3% |
| 09052025 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.5% | 13.5% | -8.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cassava Sciences
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -56 |
| FCF LTM | -43 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -34 |
| CFO LTM | -43 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -34 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | -8.0 |
| P/E | -7.8 |
| P/CFO | -10.1 |
| Total Yield | -5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 59.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -47.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 38.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -122.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.7% | -6.1% | -7.5% |
| 3/3/2025 | 3.3% | 17.1% | -37.5% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.6% | -5.2% | -87.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | -13.8% | -21.5% | -10.9% |
| 5/10/2024 | 1.9% | 14.3% | -7.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | -0.3% | -6.9% | -11.2% |
| 11/7/2023 | 4.3% | -8.8% | 1.5% |
| 8/3/2023 | -0.7% | -11.1% | -0.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 6.6% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -14.5% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.1% | 31.3% | 71.6% |
| Max Negative | -13.8% | -21.8% | -87.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Kupiec James William | Chief Medical Officer | 12032024 | Sell | 3.87 | 4,000 | 15,480 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |