Tearsheet

Cassava Sciences (SAVA)


Market Price (11/14/2025): $2.86 | Market Cap: $138.2 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Cassava Sciences (SAVA)


Market Price (11/14/2025): $2.86
Market Cap: $138.2 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -79%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -168%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Alzheimer's Disease Treatment, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -131 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -91%
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 130%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -79%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Alzheimer's Disease Treatment, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -168%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
4 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -131 Mil
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -91%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 130%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

SAVA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Cassava Sciences (SAVA) stock movement from approximately July 31, 2025, to today, November 14, 2025: 1. Discontinuation of Alzheimer's Program and Strategic Pivot

Cassava Sciences announced in March 2025 that its Phase 3 REFOCUS-ALZ trial for simufilam in Alzheimer's disease did not meet its primary and secondary endpoints. This led the company to discontinue the Alzheimer's disease development program by the end of Q2 2025. Simultaneously, Cassava pivoted its focus to developing simufilam for Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)-related epilepsy. 2. Positive Preclinical Results for Simufilam in TSC-Related Epilepsy

On August 4, 2025, Cassava Sciences reported positive preclinical results from a study evaluating simufilam in a mouse model of TSC-related epilepsy, demonstrating that simufilam attenuated seizure activity in a dose-dependent manner. This was further supported by a presentation of promising preclinical data at the TSC Alliance Meeting on June 30, 2025, indicating simufilam reduced seizure frequency by 60% in a preclinical mouse model. The company plans to initiate its first clinical study for simufilam in TSC-related epilepsy in the first half of 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SAVA Return31%541%-32%-24%-90%25%-43%
Peers Return-6%22%10%-18%39%18%71%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SAVA Win Rate42%58%33%33%42%80% 
Peers Win Rate35%33%43%30%28%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SAVA Max Drawdown-61%0%-63%-57%-90%-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-25%-39%-37%-38%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BIIB, TRVI, AVXL, APM, BBOT. See SAVA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSAVAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven970.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-78.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven373.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-92.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1288.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven641 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-99.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven112800.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven851 days1480 days

Compare to BIIB, TRVI, AVXL, APM, BBOT


In The Past

Cassava Sciences's stock fell -90.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/28/2021. A -90.7% loss requires a 970.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Cassava Sciences (SAVA)

Better Bets than Cassava Sciences (SAVA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SAVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.9%-8.9%-10.1%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-5.8%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-31.2%-31.2%-31.2%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.8%15.8%-7.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.9%-8.9%-10.1%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-5.8%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-31.2%-31.2%-31.2%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.8%15.8%-7.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cassava Sciences

Financials

SAVABIIBTRVIAVXLAPMBBOTMedian
NameCassava .Biogen Trevi Th.Anavex L.Aptorum BridgeBi. 
Mkt Price2.94164.7311.465.691.4212.388.58
Mkt Cap0.124.11.50.5--1.0
Rev LTM010,06600-00
Op Inc LTM-1312,492-52-56--93-56
FCF LTM-962,262-43-37--60-43
FCF 3Y Avg-871,686-36-31---34
CFO LTM-962,454-43-37--60-43
CFO 3Y Avg-861,980-36-31---34

Growth & Margins

SAVABIIBTRVIAVXLAPMBBOTMedian
NameCassava .Biogen Trevi Th.Anavex L.Aptorum BridgeBi. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.8%----4.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--0.9%-----0.9%
Rev Chg Q-2.8%----2.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%----0.7%
Op Mgn LTM-24.8%----24.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-22.5%----22.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%----0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-24.4%----24.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-20.0%----20.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-22.5%----22.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17.0%----17.0%

Valuation

SAVABIIBTRVIAVXLAPMBBOTMedian
NameCassava .Biogen Trevi Th.Anavex L.Aptorum BridgeBi. 
Mkt Cap0.124.11.50.5--1.0
P/S-2.4----2.4
P/EBIT-1.111.2-31.6-10.5---5.8
P/E-1.215.0-31.6-10.1---5.6
P/CFO-1.59.8-35.0-13.1---7.3
Total Yield-86.7%6.7%-3.2%-9.9%---6.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-44.1%6.7%-10.3%-5.7%---8.0%
D/E0.00.30.00.0--0.0
Net D/E-0.80.1-0.1-0.2---0.2

Returns

SAVABIIBTRVIAVXLAPMBBOTMedian
NameCassava .Biogen Trevi Th.Anavex L.Aptorum BridgeBi. 
1M Rtn-33.6%13.4%12.5%-35.3%-10.7%12.8%0.9%
3M Rtn22.0%22.1%53.0%-43.7%-2.7%23.9%22.0%
6M Rtn43.4%33.2%85.1%-32.0%44.9%-43.4%
12M Rtn-88.3%-0.6%300.7%-36.0%18.3%--0.6%
3Y Rtn-92.9%-44.9%467.3%-59.7%-77.6%--59.7%
1M Excs Rtn-37.6%13.7%6.9%-38.0%-10.5%2.6%-4.0%
3M Excs Rtn21.2%14.4%47.9%-47.2%-2.3%11.8%13.1%
6M Excs Rtn29.5%19.3%71.3%-45.9%31.0%-29.5%
12M Excs Rtn-101.4%-16.5%261.0%-50.1%-2.2%--16.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-167.6%-118.4%417.8%-129.2%-154.2%--129.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development of novel drugs and diagnostics1522352679423
Total1522352679423


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,384,672
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520257.9%
Average Daily Volume1,999,073
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.69
Basic Shares Quantity48,308,000
Short % of Basic Shares15.3%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/20254.8%  
8/14/20255.7%-6.1%-7.5%
3/3/20253.3%17.1%-37.5%
11/7/2024-4.6%-5.2%-87.9%
8/8/2024-13.8%-21.5%-10.9%
5/10/20241.9%14.3%-7.0%
2/28/2024-0.3%-6.9%-11.2%
11/7/20234.3%-8.8%1.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive784
# Negative121115
Median Positive4.8%10.4%20.1%
Median Negative-4.6%-14.5%-11.1%
Max Positive15.1%31.3%71.6%
Max Negative-13.8%-21.8%-87.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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