SAP (SAP)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $271.69 | Market Cap: $316.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
SAP (SAP)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $271.69Market Cap: $316.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 7.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.4 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 7.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.4 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SAP Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
SAP Return | -1% | 9% | -24% | 52% | 61% | 11% | 118% |
Peers Return | 31% | 27% | -22% | 57% | 23% | 16% | 191% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
SAP Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 92% | 44% | |
Peers Win Rate | 63% | 63% | 35% | 62% | 58% | 44% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
SAP Max Drawdown | -30% | -7% | -42% | 0% | -4% | -4% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -8% | -35% | -5% | -10% | -20% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, IBM, CRM, ADBE. See SAP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | SAP | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -47.3% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 89.8% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 419 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -37.4% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 59.7% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1178 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -25.0% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -50.4% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 101.5% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 813 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
SAP's stock fell -47.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/14/2021. A -47.3% loss requires a 89.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SAP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.3% | -6.3% | -6.3% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 22.0% | 22.0% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.3% | -6.3% | -6.3% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 22.0% | 22.0% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SAP
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 292.19 |
Mkt Cap | 289.0 |
Rev LTM | 49,260 |
Op Inc LTM | 10,119 |
FCF LTM | 10,622 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 9,216 |
CFO LTM | 13,226 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 12,159 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
Op Mgn LTM | 28.8% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 34.9% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.1% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 21.8% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 289.0 |
P/S | 7.4 |
P/EBIT | 30.3 |
P/E | 41.1 |
P/CFO | 23.8 |
Total Yield | 3.4% |
Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
D/E | 0.0 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 0.1% |
3M Rtn | -3.9% |
6M Rtn | 12.2% |
12M Rtn | 21.5% |
3Y Rtn | 146.4% |
1M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
3M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
12M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 64.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Single segment | 31,207 | 29,520 | 26,170 | ||
Adjustment for currency impact | 0 | ||||
Other revenue | 783 | 319 | 405 | ||
Adjustment of revenue under fair value accounting | -5 | -81 | |||
Applications, Technology & Support (ATS) | 22,965 | 21,664 | |||
Qualtrics | 681 | 508 | |||
Services | 3,379 | 3,447 | |||
Concur | 1,609 | ||||
Total | 31,207 | 29,520 | 26,953 | 27,339 | 27,552 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7252025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4252025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2272025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10232024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7242024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4242024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2292024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10202023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7252023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 4242023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 3022023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10262022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7262022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4252022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 3032022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10262021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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