Sunrun (RUN)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $12.33 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Sunrun (RUN)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $12.33Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 491% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -99% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 118% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% | ||
| Short seller report | ||
| Key risksRUN key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on government tax credits for its business model and [2] a substantial debt load coupled with significant profitability challenges. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.3% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 491% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -99% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 118% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% |
| Short seller report |
| Key risksRUN key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on government tax credits for its business model and [2] a substantial debt load coupled with significant profitability challenges. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sunrun (RUN) stock has lost about 40% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Declining Subscriber Additions and Cautious 2026 Outlook Following Q4 2025 Earnings.
Despite exceeding Q4 2025 EPS estimates by $0.46 (reporting $0.38 against an expected -$0.08) and surpassing revenue expectations by $538.28 million (reaching $1.16 billion), Sunrun's stock experienced a significant drop following its February 26, 2026 earnings release. The company reported a 17% decrease in subscriber additions, an 11% decline in solar capacity installed, and a 5% reduction in storage capacity installed in Q4 2025 compared to the prior year. Additionally, its guidance for positive Cash Generation in 2026, projected between $250 million and $450 million, was perceived as cautious, contributing to a stock price decline of over 35% on February 27, 2026.
2. Expiration of the Federal Solar Tax Credit for Purchased Systems.
A significant macroeconomic factor impacting the residential solar market, including Sunrun, was the expiration of the 30% Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D federal solar tax credit) for purchased solar systems after December 31, 2025. This led to anticipated pull-forward demand into 2025, with projections indicating a 25% decrease in residential solar installations in 2026 compared to 2025. While Sunrun's lease-based model is covered by a separate tax credit (Section 48E) until the end of 2027, the overall industry sentiment and expected slowdown in demand for purchased systems contributed to market headwinds.
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1. Declining Subscriber Additions and Cautious 2026 Outlook Following Q4 2025 Earnings.
Despite exceeding Q4 2025 EPS estimates by $0.46 (reporting $0.38 against an expected -$0.08) and surpassing revenue expectations by $538.28 million (reaching $1.16 billion), Sunrun's stock experienced a significant drop following its February 26, 2026 earnings release. The company reported a 17% decrease in subscriber additions, an 11% decline in solar capacity installed, and a 5% reduction in storage capacity installed in Q4 2025 compared to the prior year. Additionally, its guidance for positive Cash Generation in 2026, projected between $250 million and $450 million, was perceived as cautious, contributing to a stock price decline of over 35% on February 27, 2026.
2. Expiration of the Federal Solar Tax Credit for Purchased Systems.
A significant macroeconomic factor impacting the residential solar market, including Sunrun, was the expiration of the 30% Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D federal solar tax credit) for purchased solar systems after December 31, 2025. This led to anticipated pull-forward demand into 2025, with projections indicating a 25% decrease in residential solar installations in 2026 compared to 2025. While Sunrun's lease-based model is covered by a separate tax credit (Section 48E) until the end of 2027, the overall industry sentiment and expected slowdown in demand for purchased systems contributed to market headwinds.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.7% change in RUN stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.25 | 12.22 | -39.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,317 | 2,957 | 27.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 1.0 | -52.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 231 | 233 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RUN | -39.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.8% | 41.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.2% | 29.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.5% change in RUN stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.97 | 12.22 | -23.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,129 | 2,957 | 38.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.7 | 1.0 | -44.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 229 | 233 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RUN | -23.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 42.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.8% | 30.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 68.6% change in RUN stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.25 | 12.22 | 68.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,038 | 2,957 | 45.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 1.0 | 21.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 223 | 233 | -4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 68.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RUN | 68.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 28.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.8% | 25.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.2% change in RUN stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.04 | 12.22 | -49.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,321 | 2,957 | 27.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.5% | 15.2% | 103.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.6 | 6.3 | -78.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 214 | 233 | -8.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RUN | -49.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.3% | 29.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 67.1% | 30.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RUN Return | -51% | -30% | -18% | -53% | 99% | -29% | -81% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 13% | -0% | -17% | 23% | 7% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RUN Win Rate | 17% | 50% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 46% | 42% | 44% | 49% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RUN Max Drawdown | -55% | -48% | -63% | -53% | -39% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -41% | -43% | -51% | -35% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TSLA, SPWR, FSLR, ENPH, SEDG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RUN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 991.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 120 days |
Compare to TSLA, SPWR, FSLR, ENPH, SEDG
In The Past
Sunrun's stock fell -90.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/8/2021. A -90.8% loss requires a 991.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Sunrun (RUN)
Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. In addition, the company offers battery storage along with solar energy systems. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Sunrun:
- Netflix for home solar energy: Sunrun provides homeowners with solar power, often through subscription-like leases and power purchase agreements, similar to how Netflix offers content through a subscription.
- ADT for residential solar systems: Sunrun installs and maintains critical solar energy systems for homes, offering ongoing service much like ADT provides home security systems and monitoring.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Residential Solar Energy Systems: Sunrun designs, develops, installs, owns, and maintains complete solar energy systems for residential homeowners.
- Solar Energy System Products: The company sells individual solar energy system components and products, including panels and racking.
- Battery Storage Systems: Sunrun offers battery storage solutions, typically integrated with its solar energy systems.
- Solar Leads: Sunrun generates and sells qualified solar leads to other customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sunrun (RUN) primarily serves residential homeowners. Its customer categories include:
- Residential homeowners seeking to install new solar energy systems for their homes.
- Residential homeowners interested in integrating battery storage solutions with their solar energy systems.
- Residential homeowners who opt for long-term service agreements, including system ownership and maintenance, provided by Sunrun.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Suppliers for Sunrun (RUN):
- Hanwha Q CELLS (Parent company: Hanwha Solutions, 009830.KS)
- Enphase Energy (ENPH)
- Tesla (TSLA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mary Powell, Chief Executive Officer
Mary Powell has served as Sunrun's Chief Executive Officer since August 2021 and as a member of its Board since 2018. Prior to joining Sunrun, she was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Green Mountain Power Corporation (GMP) for over a decade, from 2008 to 2019. At GMP, she led strategies that increased customer satisfaction and growth, and positioned the company as a leader in energy transformation. She also held executive roles in the banking industry and state government before joining GMP in 1998. Ms. Powell currently serves on the board of directors of CGI Inc. and previously served on the boards of Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc. and Énergir.
Danny Abajian, Chief Financial Officer
Danny Abajian has served as Sunrun's Chief Financial Officer since May 2022. He has held various leadership roles within Sunrun's Project Finance organization since July 2010, including Senior Vice President, Vice President, Senior Director, and Director. Before joining Sunrun, Mr. Abajian was an investment banker, serving as an associate at Barclays Capital and an analyst and associate at BNP Paribas from July 2005 to July 2010.
Lynn Jurich, Co-Executive Chair and Co-founder
Lynn Jurich co-founded Sunrun in 2007, pioneering the residential solar-as-a-service model. She served as Sunrun's Chief Executive Officer from 2014 until August 2021, and previously held roles as President and Co-CEO. She oversaw Sunrun's initial public offering in 2015. Before co-founding Sunrun, Jurich was an associate at Summit Partners, a growth equity firm, where she evaluated business models and executed investments in financial services and technology.
Edward Fenster, Co-Executive Chair and Co-founder
Edward Fenster co-founded Sunrun in 2007. He previously served as CEO from 2008 to 2012 and Co-CEO from 2012 to 2014, and was appointed Executive Chairman in March 2014, now serving as Co-Executive Chair. At Sunrun, he focuses on finance, fleet operations, legal, and regulatory affairs, and has been instrumental in securing project financing. Before Sunrun, Mr. Fenster was Director of Corporate Development at Asurion Corporation and worked at The Blackstone Group, a private equity firm, where he completed over $10 billion in private equity and mergers and acquisitions transactions.
Paul Dickson, President and Chief Revenue Officer
Paul Dickson has served as Sunrun's Chief Revenue Officer since January 2022 and President since April 2024. He joined Sunrun in October 2020 through the acquisition of Vivint Solar, Inc., where he was Chief Revenue Officer from September 2016. Prior to that, he served as Vivint Solar, Inc.'s Senior Vice President of Operations and Vice President of Finance and Capital Markets. Mr. Dickson was part of Vivint Solar Inc.'s founding team.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Sunrun's business are primarily driven by changes in the regulatory and policy landscape, its significant debt and cash burn, and intense competition within the residential solar market.
- Regulatory and Policy Changes: Sunrun faces substantial risk from shifts in government incentives and policies, notably the upcoming expiration of the 25D tax credit at the end of 2025. This expiration is anticipated to potentially contract the residential solar market in 2026, directly impacting demand for Sunrun's installations. Uncertainties surrounding the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and other policy changes can also significantly alter its business model and financial projections. Furthermore, legislative changes, such as those in California assigning responsibility for virtual power plants to utilities, could disadvantage Sunrun. Changes in utility rate designs and valuation of exported electricity also pose ongoing risks to the company's offerings.
- High Debt Levels and Cash Burn: Sunrun operates with a highly leveraged balance sheet, evidenced by a debt-to-equity ratio that has been reported around 4.84 to 4.93, and in some analyses, as high as 310%. The company has incurred significant cash burn, with reports indicating hundreds of millions in negative free cash flow over the last year, and its substantial debt load (over $14 billion) raises concerns about its ability to meet interest payments. Its reliance on tax equity financing, closely tied to tax credits, could become more challenging and potentially lead to higher capital costs. Analyst concerns have also been raised regarding Sunrun's ability to continuously offload its Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) assets, with a potential "liquidity event" if access to such financing mechanisms diminishes or deteriorates. The company's Altman Z-Score suggests a potential bankruptcy risk.
- Intense Competition and Customer Acquisition Costs: The residential solar market is characterized by fierce competition from a variety of players, including other large installers, smaller local companies, and traditional utility providers. This competitive environment can lead to pricing pressures, potential market share erosion, and reduced profitability for Sunrun. Additionally, as the market matures and becomes more crowded, customer acquisition costs are rising, which places further pressure on Sunrun's margins and necessitates increased investment in marketing and sales efforts to maintain its leading position. Rapid technological advancements in solar panel efficiency and energy storage solutions also mean Sunrun must continually innovate to remain competitive.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for Sunrun is the increasing proliferation and competitiveness of community solar programs. These programs allow homeowners and renters to subscribe to a share of an off-site solar farm and receive credits on their utility bills, effectively accessing solar energy benefits without needing to install panels or battery storage on their own property. This model directly threatens Sunrun's core business of designing, developing, installing, and maintaining rooftop residential solar energy systems and battery storage.
Community solar offers several advantages that could disrupt the market for rooftop installations:
- It removes the need for significant upfront investment and complex installation processes on individual homes, including permitting, structural considerations, and roof suitability.
- It expands access to solar energy to a broader demographic, including renters, apartment dwellers, and homeowners with shaded roofs, older roofs, or HOA restrictions, who might not be viable customers for rooftop solar.
- As these programs scale, they could potentially offer lower costs due to economies of scale for larger installations, making them more financially attractive than individual rooftop systems in certain markets.
This shift represents a different model for homeowners to obtain solar energy benefits, similar to how streaming services offered a different, often more convenient and accessible, model for consuming entertainment compared to physical media rentals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sunrun Inc. (RUN) operates within the United States residential solar and energy storage markets. The addressable markets for its main products and services, residential solar energy systems and battery storage, are significant within this region.Residential Solar Energy Systems Market (U.S.)
The U.S. residential solar PV market was estimated at USD 7.45 billion in 2023. This market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% from 2024 to 2030. Another estimate indicates the U.S. residential solar PV market was worth over USD 6.3 billion in 2024. The market size is forecast to increase by USD 10.93 billion, at a CAGR of 12.3% between 2024 and 2029. In terms of installations, the residential segment installed 4,647 MWdc of solar capacity in 2025.Residential Battery Storage Market (U.S.)
Estimates for the U.S. residential energy storage market show varying figures, reflecting different analyses of this growing sector:- One analysis valued the U.S. residential energy storage market at approximately USD 137.2 million in 2024, with projections to reach USD 603.6 million by 2030, advancing at a CAGR of 28.0% from 2024 to 2030.
- Another report indicated the U.S. battery energy storage system market size was valued at USD 3.62 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 36.47 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 25.99% from 2026 to 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sunrun (RUN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Increased Adoption of Solar-Plus-Storage Solutions: Sunrun is focusing on integrated solar-plus-storage systems, which are attracting new, higher-value customers and boosting revenue. The company achieved a record storage attachment rate of 69% in the first quarter of 2025, increasing to 71% by year-end 2025. This emphasis on a "storage-first" approach is a significant factor in the company's growth.
- Growth in Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) and Grid Services: Sunrun is actively scaling its grid services business through Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). Customer participation in Sunrun's distributed power plant programs grew more than fivefold in 2025, reaching over 106,000 customers across 17 programs. This initiative generates revenue as utilities compensate Sunrun for managing and operating these distributed power plants, with customers earning over $17 million in 2025 for participation.
- Expansion in Key Markets and Geographic Penetration: A core component of Sunrun's growth strategy involves expanding its reach in key markets and increasing its penetration in both existing and new U.S. states. This strategy leverages its established infrastructure and brand recognition.
- New Product Innovation: The introduction of innovative customer products, such as Sunrun Flex, a solar-plus-storage subscription, demonstrates Sunrun's commitment to adapting to evolving household energy needs. The company also mentions exploring vehicle-to-home grid support technology.
- Focus on Direct Business Growth and Higher-Margin Offerings: Sunrun anticipates growing its direct business by high single- to low double-digits in 2026. The company is strategically prioritizing its direct sales channels and proactively reducing affiliate partner volumes by over 40% for 2026 to achieve higher margins within its direct business. This margin-focused strategy aims for strong upfront unit margins.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions for Sunrun (RUN) over the Last 3-5 Years
Share Repurchases
- Sunrun Inc. has not made any significant share repurchases over the last 3-5 years.
- The company indicated that it would consider additional capital allocation options, including potential share buybacks, once its debt targets are met.
Share Issuance
- Sunrun's shares outstanding increased by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 234 million shares.
- The company has shares reserved for future issuance under its equity compensation plans, including those assumed from the Vivint Solar acquisition.
- Net proceeds from employee stock award activities have been relatively small, reflecting minor issuances related to compensation.
Inbound Investments
- In 2025, Sunrun secured $2.7 billion in tax equity and $2.8 billion in nonrecourse debt.
- The company entered into new joint venture partnerships, notably with Hannon Armstrong, which committed up to $500 million over an 18-month period to finance residential solar and storage assets.
- Sunrun raised over $1.5 billion in senior and subordinated non-recourse debt financings in the third quarter of 2025 through securitizations.
Capital Expenditures
- Sunrun's capital expenditures were $8.58 million in 2021, $18 million in 2022, and $21 million in 2023.
- Capital expenditures decreased significantly to $1.57 million in 2024 and $1.78 million in 2025.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on the origination and installation of solar energy systems, battery storage, and expanding its distributed power plant network.
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Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
| 02132026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -3.0% |
| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -36.2% | -36.2% | -36.2% |
| 04302025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 192.0% | 92.3% | -16.1% |
| 09302024 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -67.6% | -4.3% | -68.6% |
| 09302023 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 4.9% | 47.3% | -29.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,215 |
| Op Inc LTM | 69 |
| FCF LTM | 88 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -8 |
| CFO LTM | 120 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 201 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 27.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 41.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 6.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -10.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.4 |
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/CFO | 19.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -25.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 47.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -29.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 37.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -99.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/05/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -42.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $17.06 | $15.75 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -28.4% | -22.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 102.4% | 119.0% |
| Downside Capture | 458.37 | 196.78 |
| Upside Capture | 349.85 | 232.78 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 38.8% | 26.9% |
RUN Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.92 | 3.30 | 3.56 | 3.07 | 1.63 | 1.83 |
| Up Beta | 0.90 | -0.06 | 1.23 | 3.27 | 1.76 | 1.68 |
| Down Beta | -0.18 | 2.90 | 3.07 | 2.72 | 1.37 | 1.49 |
| Up Capture | 211% | 358% | 394% | 386% | 350% | 858% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 62 | 127 | 353 |
| Down Capture | 644% | 492% | 432% | 263% | 135% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 31 | 62 | 123 | 395 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RUN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN | 48.7% | 116.3% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 22.3% | 19.1% | 0.93 | 25.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 18.9% | 0.64 | 28.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.0% | 1.45 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.4% | 0.83 | 7.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 20.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.9% | 44.2% | -0.35 | 23.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RUN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN | -30.8% | 90.9% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.3% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 34.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 36.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.5% | 0.97 | 11.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 10.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 40.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.8% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 19.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RUN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN | 4.5% | 77.9% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.5% | 19.8% | 0.60 | 36.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 39.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.7% | 0.70 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 36.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 14.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -35.1% | -42.3% | |
| 11/6/2025 | -16.1% | -7.6% | -12.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | 32.3% | 20.5% | 100.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -8.3% | -13.1% | -24.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -11.8% | -5.9% | -3.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 11.0% | 16.9% | 16.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 7.8% | 5.0% | 16.9% |
| 2/21/2024 | -18.0% | -24.3% | -24.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 10.1% | 7.6% | 16.8% |
| Median Negative | -9.9% | -13.1% | -19.7% |
| Max Positive | 32.3% | 20.5% | 100.4% |
| Max Negative | -35.1% | -42.3% | -30.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dickson, Paul S | Pres. & Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 1072026 | 17.80 | 6,119 | 108,905 | 11,374,816 | Form |
| 2 | Abajian, Danny | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1072026 | 17.80 | 7,190 | 128,002 | 7,219,356 | Form |
| 3 | Powell, Mary | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1072026 | 17.80 | 8,754 | 155,784 | 15,392,406 | Form |
| 4 | Steele, Jeanna | Chief Legal & People Officer | Direct | Sell | 1072026 | 17.80 | 4,430 | 78,842 | 6,326,744 | Form |
| 5 | Barak, Maria | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 1072026 | 17.80 | 1,201 | 21,373 | 1,553,119 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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