Rio Tinto (RIO)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $71.99 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Rio Tinto (RIO)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $71.99Market Cap: $-Sector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5%, Dist 3Y High is -0.5% | |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5%, Dist 3Y High is -0.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
RIO Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RIO Return | 36% | -1% | 18% | 11% | -15% | 30% | 92% |
| Peers Return | 77% | 55% | -12% | -12% | -16% | 39% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RIO Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 33% | 78% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 47% | 47% | 38% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RIO Max Drawdown | -36% | -11% | -15% | -14% | -16% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -53% | -9% | -28% | -32% | -38% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VALE, CLF, MDU, LAC, IPI. See RIO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RIO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 813.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to VALE, CLF, MDU, LAC, IPI
In The Past
Rio Tinto's stock fell -45.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/11/2021. A -45.9% loss requires a 84.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock Has 55% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
| Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock Has 51% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
| Rio Tinto (RIO) worth $76 Bil (up $6.9 Bil), more valuable than SLB | Notification | ||
| Rio Tinto (RIO) worth $69 Bil (down $0), more valuable than Estee Lauder | Notification | ||
| [11/4/2022] Rio Tinto (RIO) Shares Moved 10% Today (Extremely rare event) | |||
| Dates Cached For RIO | |||
| Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock Has 50% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | Return | ||
| Rio Tinto Stock Return Comparison | Return | ||
| Rio Tinto To S&P 500 Ratio | Ratios | ||
| Rio Tinto Trading Activity | Technicals | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Buy Rio Tinto Stock? | September 16th, 2025 | ||
| Rio Tinto: Should You Invest Now? | May 22nd, 2025 | ||
| Rio Stock To $10? | April 8th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Next For Rio Stock After A Mixed Q4? | March 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Rio Tinto Joins The Lithium Race | February 6th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RIO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.8% |
| 09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.9% | -17.9% | -17.9% |
| 09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | -0.9% |
| 07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -23.9% | -23.9% | -23.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.8% |
| 09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.9% | -17.9% | -17.9% |
| 09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | -0.9% |
| 07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -23.9% | -23.9% | -23.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rio Tinto
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.0 |
| Rev LTM | 523 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5 |
| FCF LTM | 26 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 95 |
| CFO LTM | 54 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 662 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.0 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | -3.9 |
| P/E | -1.7 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | -4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore | 32,249 | 30,906 | 39,582 | 27,508 | 24,075 |
| Aluminium | 12,285 | 14,109 | 12,695 | 9,314 | 10,340 |
| Copper | 6,678 | 6,699 | 7,827 | 4,969 | 5,196 |
| Minerals | 5,934 | 6,754 | 6,481 | 5,170 | 5,394 |
| Other Operations | 142 | 192 | 251 | 321 | 393 |
| Inter-segment transactions | -231 | -256 | -268 | -264 | -31 |
| Share of equity accounted units | -3,016 | -2,850 | -3,073 | -2,407 | -2,202 |
| Total | 54,041 | 55,554 | 63,495 | 44,611 | 43,165 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12312024 | 2202025 | Annual 12/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | Annual 12/31/2023 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 6302021 | 7282021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
| 12312020 | 3022021 | 20-F 12/31/2020 |
| 12312019 | 2282020 | 20-F 12/31/2019 |
| 6302019 | 8012019 | 6-K 6/30/2019 |
| 12312018 | 3042019 | 20-F 12/31/2018 |
| 6302018 | 8012018 | 6-K 6/30/2018 |
| 12312017 | 3012018 | 20-F 12/31/2017 |
| 12312016 | 3022017 | 20-F 12/31/2016 |
| 12312014 | 3062015 | 20-F 12/31/2014 |
| 6302014 | 8082014 | 6-K 6/30/2014 |
| 6302013 | 8162013 | 6-K 6/30/2013 |
| 6302012 | 8092012 | 6-K 6/30/2012 |
| 12312011 | 3162012 | 20-F 12/31/2011 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
