PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $68.09 | Market Cap: $66.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $68.09Market Cap: $66.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 8.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -104% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.3 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 8.0% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.3 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -104% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
PYPL Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
PYPL Return | 117% | -19% | -62% | -14% | 39% | -20% | -35% |
Peers Return | 71% | 32% | -41% | 70% | 28% | 19% | 243% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
PYPL Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 58% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 62% | 62% | 28% | 70% | 58% | 60% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
PYPL Max Drawdown | -21% | -23% | -64% | -29% | -9% | -33% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -7% | -47% | -1% | -11% | -18% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, INTU, SHOP, V. See PYPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | PYPL | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -83.7% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 512.3% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -31.2% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -20.3% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
PayPal's stock fell -83.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -83.7% loss requires a 512.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PYPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.8% | -10.8% | -12.3% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.4% | 3.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% |
06302024 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.7% | 28.1% | -1.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.8% | -10.8% | -12.3% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.4% | 3.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% |
06302024 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.7% | 28.1% | -1.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PayPal
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 233.30 |
Mkt Cap | 419.9 |
Rev LTM | 35,592 |
Op Inc LTM | 16,012 |
FCF LTM | 9,782 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 12,558 |
CFO LTM | 14,846 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 13,516 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Rev Chg Q | 14.0% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
Op Mgn LTM | 22.7% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 25.9% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 419.9 |
P/S | 8.9 |
P/EBIT | 26.3 |
P/E | 31.9 |
P/CFO | 24.9 |
Total Yield | 3.4% |
Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
D/E | 0.0 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 0.8% |
3M Rtn | -2.2% |
6M Rtn | 18.3% |
12M Rtn | 19.7% |
3Y Rtn | 97.9% |
1M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
3M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
6M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
12M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/29/2025 | -8.7% | -13.1% | -10.3% |
4/29/2025 | 2.1% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
2/4/2025 | -13.2% | -12.6% | -22.4% |
10/29/2024 | -4.0% | -6.5% | 4.0% |
7/30/2024 | 8.6% | 2.6% | 21.5% |
4/30/2024 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -8.9% |
2/7/2024 | -11.2% | -6.9% | -6.7% |
11/1/2023 | 6.6% | 6.6% | 15.5% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 13 | 11 | 10 |
# Negative | 11 | 13 | 14 |
Median Positive | 4.3% | 6.6% | 10.4% |
Median Negative | -10.5% | -7.4% | -9.1% |
Max Positive | 14.0% | 13.4% | 21.6% |
Max Negative | -24.6% | -31.6% | -42.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11092021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Kereere Suzan | President, Global Markets | 8202025 | Sell | 69.31 | 3,832 | 265,596 | 3,383,234 | Form |
1 | Kereere Suzan | President, Global Markets | 6092025 | Sell | 73.24 | 4,162 | 304,827 | 3,550,924 | Form |
2 | Scotti Diego | EVP, GM, Consumer Group | 6092025 | Sell | 73.24 | 3,839 | 281,158 | 1,244,230 | Form |
3 | MCGOVERN GAIL J | 2282025 | Sell | 72.15 | 2,446 | 176,479 | 2,145,308 | Form |
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