PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $44.73 | Market Cap: $41.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $44.73Market Cap: $41.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% | Key risksPYPL key risks include [1] intense competition eroding market share in its core branded checkout business and [2] navigating the specific regulatory landscape for its PYUSD stablecoin. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.6 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.6 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% |
| Key risksPYPL key risks include [1] intense competition eroding market share in its core branded checkout business and [2] navigating the specific regulatory landscape for its PYUSD stablecoin. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Weak 2026 Guidance. PayPal reported Q4 2025 non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.23, missing the consensus estimate of $1.29, and revenue of $8.68 billion, falling short of the $8.80 billion Wall Street expected. More critically, the company's 2026 guidance projected full-year non-GAAP EPS to decline in the low single digits or remain slightly positive, significantly below the average analyst estimate of $5.73, which had anticipated approximately 8% growth. This outlook led to a substantial stock price decline of 16-20% on February 3, 2026.
2. Deceleration in Branded Checkout Growth and Intensifying Competition. PayPal experienced a significant slowdown in its online branded checkout growth, which decelerated to just 1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 6% a year earlier. Management attributed this weakness to softening U.S. retail spending, international headwinds, and heightened competition from other digital payment platforms, including Stripe, Block's Square, and Apple Pay.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.2% change in PYPL stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.50 | 44.90 | -28.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,862 | 33,172 | 0.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.0% | 15.8% | 5.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.1 | 8.0 | -33.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 950 | 932 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -28.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | -8.3% | 16.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.7% change in PYPL stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 69.82 | 44.90 | -35.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,292 | 33,172 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.5 | 8.0 | -44.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 969 | 932 | 4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -35.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 40.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | -9.1% | 30.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.5% change in PYPL stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.67 | 44.90 | -36.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,797 | 33,172 | 4.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.0% | 15.8% | 21.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 8.0 | -52.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 996 | 932 | 6.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -36.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 59.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.3% | 54.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -38.7% change in PYPL stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -76.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.21 | 44.90 | -38.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,518 | 33,172 | 20.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 15.8% | 79.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.5 | 8.0 | -76.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,139 | 932 | 22.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -38.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -38.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 52.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 43.1% | 49.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PYPL Return | -19% | -62% | -14% | 39% | -31% | -22% | -80% |
| Peers Return | 11% | -48% | 140% | 32% | 33% | -21% | 91% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PYPL Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 32% | 65% | 53% | 60% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PYPL Max Drawdown | -23% | -64% | -29% | -9% | -33% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -57% | -2% | -25% | -24% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: V, MA, SHOP, AFRM, SOFI. See PYPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PYPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 512.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 120 days |
Compare to V, MA, SHOP, AFRM, SOFI
In The Past
PayPal's stock fell -83.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -83.7% loss requires a 512.3% gain to breakeven.
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About PayPal (PYPL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for PayPal (PYPL):
- Think of it as the Visa or Mastercard for online payments, but also a digital wallet to hold and send money.
- It's like a global Venmo that also acts as a universal checkout button for online stores.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- PayPal: The core digital payments platform enabling consumers and merchants to send and receive payments globally.
- PayPal Credit: A revolving credit line offered to consumers for online purchases, managed through their PayPal account.
- Braintree: A payment gateway that provides companies with the ability to accept payments online and in-app.
- Venmo: A popular mobile app for peer-to-peer payments, allowing users to send and receive money easily among friends and family.
- Xoom: An international digital money transfer service that allows users to send money, pay bills, and reload phones abroad.
- Zettle: Provides point-of-sale (POS) solutions, including card readers and payment software, primarily for small businesses to accept in-person payments.
- Hyperwallet: A global payout platform designed to help businesses send payments to their workers, sellers, and service providers worldwide.
- Honey: A browser extension that automatically finds and applies coupon codes and deals for online shoppers.
- Paidy: A buy now, pay later (BNPL) service primarily for the Japanese market, allowing customers to make purchases and pay later.
AI Analysis | Feedback
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) operates a two-sided network, serving both merchants and consumers. However, given the extensive range of consumer-facing products and services mentioned in its description (PayPal, PayPal Credit, Venmo, Xoom, Honey, Paidy) and the emphasis on allowing consumers to send, receive, withdraw, and hold funds, PayPal primarily serves a vast base of individual customers.
The major categories of individual customers that PayPal serves include:
- Digital Transactors and Online Shoppers: These are individuals who use PayPal, Venmo, and Paidy to make secure online purchases from e-commerce merchants, pay bills, and manage subscriptions. They value the convenience, speed, and security of digital payments, often leveraging features like buyer protection.
- Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Senders and Receivers: This category includes individuals who utilize platforms like PayPal and Venmo to send and receive money directly from friends, family, or other individuals. This covers transactions such as splitting expenses, sending gifts, or casual payments.
- International Money Transfer Users: Individuals, particularly those with family or business ties across borders, who use services like Xoom (a PayPal service) to send money internationally. They rely on PayPal's platform for reliable and convenient cross-border remittances.
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- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
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Enrique Lores, President and CEO
Enrique Lores assumed the role of President and CEO of PayPal on March 1, 2026. He has been a member of PayPal's Board for nearly five years and served as Board Chair since July 2024. Prior to joining PayPal, Mr. Lores spent over six years as President and CEO of HP Inc., where he successfully guided the company through a period of strategic transition and innovation. During his tenure at HP, he expanded the business beyond its traditional PC and printing segments into services, subscriptions, and emerging AI-enabled solutions. He was also the lead architect of HP's separation into two companies.
Jamie Miller, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Operating Officer
Jamie Miller serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Operating Officer at PayPal, a role she assumed in February 2025, having initially joined as CFO in November 2023. She possesses over 30 years of experience in finance and corporate strategy, working with both public and private companies through dynamic and transformative periods. Before PayPal, Ms. Miller was the Global CFO of EY, where she was instrumental in leading the separation and initial public offering of its strategy, tax, and consulting business. From June 2021 to January 2023, she served as CFO of Cargill, overseeing all financial activities, corporate strategy, and business development. Ms. Miller spent 12 years at General Electric (GE), most notably as Senior Vice President and CFO, where she played a critical role in the company's financial turnaround, including stabilizing and deleveraging GE and executing a significant corporate transformation that involved efforts to shrink and recapitalize GE Capital. Her experience at GE also included leadership roles as CEO of GE Transportation, Chief Information Officer of GE, and Chief Accounting Officer. Earlier in her career, she was a Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Ms. Miller is currently a board member of Qualcomm.
John Kim, Executive Vice President, Chief Product Officer
John Kim joined PayPal as Executive Vice President, Chief Product Officer, effective September 26, 2022. In this role, he is responsible for PayPal's product strategy and development, spearheading customer-centric innovation and new product launches. Mr. Kim brings over two decades of experience in product management and technology leadership within the financial technology landscape. Prior to PayPal, he held significant positions at Expedia Group, including President of Expedia Marketplace and Chief Product Officer. His diverse background also includes experience with venture-backed startups, mid-sized companies, and globally recognized brands such as Yahoo!, Overture, Accenture, Bank of America, and Pelago.
Bimal Patel, Senior Vice President, General Counsel
Bimal Patel serves as Senior Vice President and General Counsel at PayPal, overseeing the company's global legal affairs and compliance programs to ensure business integrity and regulatory alignment. He joined PayPal in January 2021 and assumed the role of General Counsel on January 1, 2022. Mr. Patel's expertise spans corporate law and compliance, and he previously held significant roles at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. As Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Institutions and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for the Financial Stability Oversight Council, he was recognized as one of the "architects" of the emergency $660 billion Paycheck Protection Program in 2020. His career also includes experience at O'Melveny & Myers LLP.
Suzan Kereere, President, Global Markets
Suzan Kereere is the President of Global Markets at PayPal, where she leads the company's international payments and technology platforms, promoting equity and innovation at scale. Ms. Kereere has a distinguished career, having held executive leadership positions at prominent companies such as 3M, Fiserv, Visa, and American Express. At Fiserv, she served as EVP of Global Business Solutions, where she was responsible for a global team of over 7,000 employees and oversaw a merchant business generating more than $6 billion in revenue. Her experience at Visa included leadership in merchant sales and acquiring, and at American Express, she managed extensive teams and substantial billing volumes in various senior roles. She holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and a BA in Economics from Tufts University.
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Key Risks to PayPal (PYPL)
The key risks to PayPal Holdings, Inc. include intense competition and challenges to market share, macroeconomic headwinds impacting consumer spending, and regulatory scrutiny alongside operational and legal risks.
The most significant risk stems from intense competition and market share challenges within the highly competitive digital payments sector. PayPal faces robust competition from both established financial institutions and innovative fintech companies, such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, Stripe, Square, Adyen, and Affirm. This competition is particularly acute in key areas like branded checkout services and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) offerings, leading to slower growth in its core branded checkout business, declining customer engagement, and pressure on transaction margins.
Secondly, PayPal is significantly exposed to macroeconomic headwinds and shifts in consumer spending patterns. The company's performance is highly correlated with overall economic health. Factors such as inflationary pressures, softer consumer spending, and potential reductions in retail media spending act as headwinds, negatively impacting PayPal's revenue growth, especially in its branded transactions.
Finally, regulatory scrutiny and associated operational and legal risks pose a substantial threat. Operating in a heavily regulated industry, PayPal encounters continuous challenges related to data privacy, cybersecurity, anti-money laundering (AML), and consumer protection. The company was fined $2 million in 2022 for cybersecurity lapses, and it has faced securities class action lawsuits alleging misleading statements regarding growth projections and inadequate disclosure of risks. Additionally, its credit products, like BNPL, carry inherent risks of loan losses, and maintaining compliance with diverse international regulatory standards presents ongoing operational challenges.
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Increasing Dominance of Mobile Wallets (Apple Pay, Google Pay): These platforms offer highly integrated, seamless payment experiences directly from the operating system or device. As they gain wider acceptance for both in-store and online transactions, they can bypass third-party payment options like PayPal during checkout. This threatens PayPal's "top-of-wallet" position and its ability to act as the primary intermediary for digital transactions, potentially relegating it to a backend processor for merchants rather than a direct consumer choice. The emerging threat lies in their expanding ubiquity and user preference, which could erode PayPal's brand visibility and transaction volume at the point of sale.
Proliferation of Account-to-Account (A2A) Payments and Open Banking Initiatives: Driven by regulatory frameworks (e.g., PSD2 in Europe, FedNow in the US) and fintech innovation, A2A payments enable direct transfers between bank accounts, often bypassing traditional card networks and their associated fees. For merchants, these direct payment rails can offer lower transaction costs and faster settlement. As A2A payment solutions become more mature and widely adopted, they present a clear emerging threat by offering a more cost-effective alternative to PayPal's existing payment processing services, potentially disintermediating PayPal from a significant portion of digital transactions.
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Here are the addressable markets for PayPal's main products and services:PayPal (Overall Digital Payments Platform)
The global digital payment market size was valued at USD 95.5 trillion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 457.8 trillion by 2032. This market encompasses the total transaction value facilitated by digital payment methods worldwide.Venmo (Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Payments)
The global P2P payment market was valued at USD 3.21 trillion in 2023 and is projected to be worth USD 13 trillion by the end of 2032. This represents the total value of money transferred directly between individuals through digital platforms.Xoom (International Money Transfer/Remittance)
The global remittance market was valued at USD 738.62 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to project robust growth to USD 1031.45 billion by 2029. This market includes the total value of money transferred by individuals, primarily across borders, to their home countries.Braintree (Payment Processing Solutions)
The global payment processing solutions market size was valued at USD 66.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 198.9 billion by 2034. This market represents the revenue generated by companies providing services for authorizing, clearing, and settling payment transactions.Zettle (Point of Sale (POS) Solutions)
The global POS terminal solution market size was valued at USD 72.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 128.4 billion by 2034. This market includes integrated hardware and software systems that facilitate secure and efficient payment processing for businesses at the point of sale.Honey and Paidy (Online Shopping/E-commerce Related Services, including Buy Now Pay Later)
The global E-commerce market size was accounted at USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 83.19 trillion by 2035. This market covers the total value of goods and services purchased through internet-enabled transactions. Specific addressable market sizes for Honey (shopping tools/deals) and Paidy (BNPL in Japan) were not separately identified as distinct global market segments with comprehensive figures in the provided search results. PayPal Credit also falls under the broader category of credit or Buy Now Pay Later services, for which a distinct global addressable market size was not available.AI Analysis | Feedback
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives focused on enhancing its core offerings, expanding its market reach, and leveraging its vast ecosystem. Key drivers include:
- Revitalizing Branded Checkout and Enhancing Consumer Experience: PayPal is concentrating on improving its core "branded checkout" experience to increase transaction volumes and combat competition. A significant part of this strategy involves the introduction of "Fastlane," designed to provide a quicker, one-click checkout experience for consumers, thereby boosting conversion rates for merchants.
- Expanding International Presence and Cross-Border Payment Capabilities: The company is strategically focused on international expansion, particularly in regions such as Europe, Brazil, the Middle East, and Africa, where e-commerce growth is robust. Initiatives like "PayPal World," expected to launch in Fall 2025, aim to create a unified infrastructure that connects various digital wallets and payment systems globally, simplifying international transactions and capturing new revenue streams from cross-border spending.
- Growth and Monetization of Venmo and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Services: Venmo continues to be a strong growth engine, with plans to expand its monetization through services like Venmo Debit and "Pay with Venmo." The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) segment is also a significant contributor, with PayPal targeting a compound annual growth rate of over 20% for this business, increasing its total payment volume and overall utility of the PayPal wallet.
- Scaling Merchant Services and Value-Added Offerings: PayPal is enhancing its offerings for businesses by improving and scaling "PayPal Complete Payments" for small and medium-sized businesses globally. The company is also unifying its merchant offerings into a single platform called "PayPal Open," which streamlines operations and offers value-added services such as fraud prevention, risk management, and data analytics to help businesses grow.
- Leveraging Data and Artificial Intelligence for Personalized Commerce and Advertising: PayPal is investing heavily in artificial intelligence to personalize commerce experiences for both consumers and merchants. This includes offering tailored recommendations, targeted discounts, and streamlining transactions. Furthermore, the recently launched "PayPal Ads" platform is a capital-light, high-margin business line that is expected to become a meaningful contributor by leveraging PayPal's extensive first-party purchase data for digital advertising.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2024, PayPal repurchased approximately $6 billion worth of shares, amounting to 92 million shares.
- PayPal's Board of Directors authorized a new $15 billion stock repurchase program in 2024, with no expiration date.
- For the fiscal year 2025, the company deployed $6 billion in share buybacks, reducing outstanding shares by over 7%.
Share Issuance
- PayPal Holdings' shares outstanding declined by 6.83% in 2025 to 0.968 billion, down from 1.039 billion in 2024.
- Shares outstanding also decreased by 6.14% in 2024 from 1.107 billion in 2023.
Outbound Investments
- PayPal acquired Honey Science Corp. for $4 billion in 2020.
- In 2021, PayPal acquired Paidy, a Japanese Buy Now Pay Later lender, for approximately $2.7 billion.
- PayPal entered an agreement to acquire Cymbio, a multi-channel orchestration and commerce enablement platform, in January 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- PayPal's capital expenditures for fiscal years 2021 to 2025 averaged $754.4 million.
- Annual capital expenditures were $908 million in 2021, $706 million in 2022, $623 million in 2023, $683 million in 2024, and $852 million in 2025.
- Capital expenditure requirements are considered minimal, contributing to the company's significant free cash flow generation.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to PYPL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | NDAQ | Nasdaq | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | JEF | Jefferies Financial | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PAYO | Payoneer Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.6% | 2.6% | -6.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -26.4% | -26.4% | -37.8% |
| 06302024 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.7% | 28.1% | -1.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 101.0 |
| Rev LTM | 22,174 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,396 |
| FCF LTM | 3,786 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,510 |
| CFO LTM | 4,224 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,884 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 101.0 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| P/EBIT | 23.1 |
| P/E | 37.5 |
| P/CFO | 21.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -26.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -23.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 114.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -25.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 38.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $44.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 41.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/20/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -42.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $49.19 | $63.40 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.7% | -29.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.2% | 41.3% |
| Downside Capture | 241.15 | 193.85 |
| Upside Capture | 84.16 | 115.49 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 31.9% | 58.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.42 | 1.96 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 1.30 | 1.32 |
| Up Beta | -0.31 | 1.02 | 0.84 | 0.59 | 1.04 | 1.19 |
| Down Beta | 2.28 | 1.69 | 1.55 | 2.19 | 1.26 | 1.31 |
| Up Capture | 271% | 140% | 103% | 96% | 142% | 151% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 17 | 26 | 55 | 123 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 380% | 311% | 265% | 203% | 143% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 35 | 69 | 128 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PYPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -34.3% | 41.3% | -0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 3.6% | 19.3% | 0.06 | 54.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 58.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | -10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 36.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 34.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PYPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -27.6% | 42.1% | -0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.3% | 18.7% | 0.38 | 48.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 58.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 42.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 31.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PYPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | 1.5% | 38.6% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 46.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 61.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 14.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 42.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 23.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | -20.3% | -21.4% | -10.4% |
| 10/28/2025 | 3.9% | -2.7% | -12.7% |
| 7/29/2025 | -8.7% | -13.1% | -10.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.1% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| 2/4/2025 | -13.2% | -12.6% | -22.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.0% | -6.5% | 4.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | 8.6% | 2.6% | 21.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -8.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 9.9% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -10.9% | -7.4% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 14.0% | 13.4% | 21.6% |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -31.6% | -42.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 59.84 | 4,162 | 249,057 | 1,854,045 | Form |
| 2 | Webster, Aaron | EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 66.29 | 9,282 | 615,310 | 2,366,509 | Form |
| 3 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 68.87 | 12,500 | 860,935 | 2,133,948 | Form |
| 4 | Scotti, Diego | EVP, GM Consumer Group | Direct | Sell | 10312025 | 68.97 | 3,838 | 264,702 | 1,171,710 | Form |
| 5 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 10312025 | 69.52 | 5,000 | 347,622 | 3,023,129 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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