Tearsheet

PayPal (PYPL)


Market Price (11/4/2025): $67.48 | Market Cap: $64.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

PayPal (PYPL)


Market Price (11/4/2025): $67.48
Market Cap: $64.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 8.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.6 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 8.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.6 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PYPL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PYPL Return117%-19%-62%-14%39%-20%-36%
Peers Return71%32%-41%70%28%29%273%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PYPL Win Rate67%50%25%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate62%62%28%70%58%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PYPL Max Drawdown-21%-23%-64%-29%-9%-33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-7%-47%-1%-11%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, SHOP, INTU, V. See PYPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPYPLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-83.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven512.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven114 days120 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, SHOP, INTU, V


In The Past

PayPal's stock fell -83.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -83.7% loss requires a 512.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PayPal (PYPL)

Better Bets than PayPal (PYPL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PYPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%0.0%
PYPL_6302024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302024PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
49.7%28.1%-1.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%0.0%
PYPL_6302024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302024PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
49.7%28.1%-1.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PayPal

Financials

PYPLGOOGLAMZNSHOPINTUVMedian
NamePayPal Alphabet Amazon.c.Shopify Intuit Visa  
Mkt Price68.34283.72254.00172.94676.19336.90268.86
Mkt Cap64.93,429.02,701.8224.4189.3620.9422.7
Rev LTM32,862385,477670,03810,01418,83138,89335,878
Op Inc LTM6,296124,07776,1901,5314,94225,86416,080
FCF LTM5,56573,55213,4811,8176,08322,0839,782
FCF 3Y Avg5,26568,99821,6771,0765,16819,89912,582
CFO LTM6,426151,424121,1371,8336,20723,48514,956
CFO 3Y Avg5,972120,99096,9771,1065,37921,13413,553

Growth & Margins

PYPLGOOGLAMZNSHOPINTUVMedian
NamePayPal Alphabet Amazon.c.Shopify Intuit Visa  
Rev Chg LTM4.5%13.4%10.9%29.0%15.6%11.4%12.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.7%11.0%11.3%26.0%14.0%11.5%11.4%
Rev Chg Q7.3%15.9%13.3%31.1%20.3%14.3%15.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%3.8%3.0%6.8%3.6%3.4%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM19.2%32.2%11.4%15.3%26.2%66.5%22.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg17.9%29.9%7.9%4.4%23.9%66.8%20.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.5%0.3%-0.1%0.5%-0.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM19.6%39.3%18.1%18.3%33.0%60.4%26.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.0%35.3%15.8%12.7%32.7%60.1%25.9%
FCF/Rev LTM16.9%19.1%2.0%18.1%32.3%56.8%18.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.8%20.5%3.5%12.2%31.4%56.6%18.6%

Valuation

PYPLGOOGLAMZNSHOPINTUVMedian
NamePayPal Alphabet Amazon.c.Shopify Intuit Visa  
Mkt Cap64.93,429.02,701.8224.4189.3620.9422.7
P/S2.08.94.022.410.116.09.5
P/EBIT10.022.531.7146.637.324.928.3
P/E13.227.638.395.748.930.634.4
P/CFO10.122.622.3122.430.526.424.5
Total Yield7.6%3.9%2.6%1.0%2.7%3.8%3.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.6%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.5%3.3%1.1%1.0%3.0%4.1%3.2%
D/E0.20.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net D/E0.0-0.00.0-0.00.00.00.0

Returns

PYPLGOOGLAMZNSHOPINTUVMedian
NamePayPal Alphabet Amazon.c.Shopify Intuit Visa  
1M Rtn-1.3%15.6%15.7%7.3%-0.4%-3.7%3.5%
3M Rtn0.5%45.6%20.0%38.1%-13.7%-1.4%10.2%
6M Rtn-0.3%73.1%36.3%75.8%7.3%-3.0%21.8%
12M Rtn-11.5%66.4%28.3%118.9%9.5%16.7%22.5%
3Y Rtn-9.1%230.0%179.2%437.9%91.0%75.4%135.1%
1M Excs Rtn-3.3%13.6%13.7%5.3%-2.4%-5.7%1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-8.0%37.1%10.1%27.4%-20.7%-8.9%1.0%
6M Excs Rtn-21.6%51.9%15.0%54.5%-14.0%-24.3%0.5%
12M Excs Rtn-30.5%45.5%13.9%98.3%-8.3%-0.9%6.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-101.7%129.8%48.9%327.2%-16.5%-10.9%19.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment29,771    
Revenues from other value added services 2,3121,9691,5361,673
Transaction revenues 25,20623,40219,91816,099
Total29,77127,51825,37121,45417,772


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity38,620,039
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202511.5%
Average Daily Volume17,287,552
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.23
Basic Shares Quantity950,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021203202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Kereere SuzanPresident, Global Markets8202025Sell69.313,832265,5963,383,234Form
1Kereere SuzanPresident, Global Markets6092025Sell73.244,162304,8273,550,924Form
2Scotti DiegoEVP, GM, Consumer Group6092025Sell73.243,839281,1581,244,230Form
3MCGOVERN GAIL J 2282025Sell72.152,446176,4792,145,308Form