Philip Morris International (PM)
Market Price (10/21/2025): $158.09 | Market Cap: $246.1 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco
Philip Morris International (PM)
Market Price (10/21/2025): $158.09Market Cap: $246.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Tobacco
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.4% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.3x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x | |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.4% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.3x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
PM Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
PM Return | 4% | 21% | 12% | -2% | 34% | 35% | 150% |
Peers Return | 28% | 18% | -19% | -9% | 19% | 3% | 37% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
PM Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 78% | |
Peers Win Rate | 52% | 50% | 43% | 43% | 52% | 53% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
PM Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -9% | -10% | -5% | -3% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -31% | -27% | -30% | -24% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MO, TPB, UVV, XXII, PM. See PM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/20/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | PM | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -25.8% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 664 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -33.1% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -46.3% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 2076 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -42.2% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 73.0% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 566 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Philip Morris International's stock fell -25.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2022. A -25.8% loss requires a 34.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.0% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.5% | -15.5% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.8% | -11.8% | -22.4% |
05312019 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 1.3% | -17.2% |
08312018 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.7% | -2.0% | -12.8% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.0% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.5% | -15.5% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.8% | -11.8% | -22.4% |
05312019 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 1.3% | -17.2% |
08312018 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.7% | -2.0% | -12.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Philip Morris International
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 64.40 |
Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
Rev LTM | 2,944 |
Op Inc LTM | 261 |
FCF LTM | 132 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 56 |
CFO LTM | 184 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 87 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
Rev Chg Q | 0.2% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
Op Mgn LTM | 23.4% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
P/S | 4.2 |
P/EBIT | 9.2 |
P/E | 12.9 |
P/CFO | 12.2 |
Total Yield | 6.7% |
Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
D/E | 0.2 |
Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -2.1% |
3M Rtn | -1.4% |
6M Rtn | 6.1% |
12M Rtn | 36.4% |
3Y Rtn | 84.3% |
1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
6M Excs Rtn | -24.4% |
12M Excs Rtn | 20.4% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/22/2025 | -8.4% | -12.6% | -6.5% |
4/23/2025 | 2.4% | 3.7% | 6.4% |
2/6/2025 | 10.9% | 14.4% | 15.2% |
10/22/2024 | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% |
7/23/2024 | 2.2% | 6.7% | 11.0% |
4/23/2024 | 3.8% | 1.6% | 6.6% |
2/8/2024 | -2.7% | -2.4% | 1.4% |
10/19/2023 | -2.7% | -3.4% | -2.1% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 14 | 14 | 15 |
# Negative | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% |
Median Negative | -2.9% | -2.5% | -5.4% |
Max Positive | 10.9% | 14.4% | 15.2% |
Max Negative | -8.4% | -12.6% | -14.6% |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Dahlgren Lars | Pres. Smoke-Free Oral Products | 3072025 | Sell | 152.96 | 3,679 | 562,740 | 4,103,611 | Form |
1 | Andolina Massimo | President, Europe Region | 2252025 | Sell | 156.05 | 17,500 | 2,730,875 | 13,535,309 | Form |
2 | Dobrowolski Reginaldo | Vice President and Controller | 2132025 | Sell | 149.88 | 5,000 | 749,400 | 3,117,354 | Form |
3 | Volpetti Stefano | Pr.SmokeFree&ChiefCons.Officer | 11012024 | Sell | 132.48 | 10,000 | 1,324,800 | 12,159,014 | Form |
4 | Calantzopoulos Andre | 10252024 | Sell | 129.85 | 101,918 | 13,234,052 | 124,624,966 | Form |
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