Progressive (PGR)
Market Price (10/13/2025): $239.01 | Market Cap: $140.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Progressive (PGR)
Market Price (10/13/2025): $239.01Market Cap: $140.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 12% | ||
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 12% |
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
PGR Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
PGR Return | 41% | 11% | 27% | 23% | 51% | 2% | 279% |
Peers Return | -3% | 27% | 18% | 4% | 32% | 9% | 115% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
PGR Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 63% | 62% | 67% | 64% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
PGR Max Drawdown | -5% | -10% | -1% | -11% | 0% | -0% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -4% | -6% | -20% | -0% | -7% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CB, TRV, ALL, MET, HIG. See PGR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/10/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | PGR | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -23.0% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -20.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -60.0% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 149.7% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1446 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Progressive's stock fell -23.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/10/2023. A -23.0% loss requires a 29.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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About Progressive (PGR)
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to PGR and Property & Casualty Insurance.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.3% | -12.3% | -12.3% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.4% | 1.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 14.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.3% | -12.3% | -12.3% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.4% | 1.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 14.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Progressive
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 222.83 |
Mkt Cap | 57.7 |
Rev LTM | 61,937 |
Op Inc LTM | - |
FCF LTM | 11,816 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 10,225 |
CFO LTM | 11,816 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 10,368 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
Rev Chg Q | 7.2% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
Op Mgn LTM | - |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
CFO/Rev LTM | 20.8% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 57.7 |
P/S | 1.3 |
P/EBIT | 8.7 |
P/E | 12.0 |
P/CFO | 6.3 |
Total Yield | 9.9% |
Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -2.0% |
3M Rtn | 5.0% |
6M Rtn | 9.5% |
12M Rtn | 5.7% |
3Y Rtn | 68.3% |
1M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
3M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
6M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
12M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Lines | 49,505 | 40,744 | 35,373 | 32,620 | 30,210 |
Commercial Lines | 10,048 | 9,216 | 6,945 | 4,876 | 4,428 |
Investment income | 1,892 | 1,260 | 2,370 | 2,567 | 2,071 |
Net realized gains (losses) on securities | 353 | -1,912 | |||
Service revenues | 310 | 300 | 271 | 226 | 195 |
Other | 1 | 3 | 8 | ||
Fees and other revenues | 692 | 604 | 564 | ||
Property | 2,042 | 1,766 | 1,555 | ||
Total | 62,109 | 49,611 | 47,702 | 42,658 | 39,022 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/16/2025 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% |
4/16/2025 | -0.4% | -4.0% | 1.8% |
1/29/2025 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 14.4% |
10/15/2024 | -0.1% | -0.5% | 4.2% |
7/16/2024 | -3.3% | -0.4% | 2.4% |
4/12/2024 | 0.8% | 3.7% | 6.7% |
1/24/2024 | 4.7% | 5.5% | 12.5% |
10/13/2023 | 1.4% | -0.1% | 4.5% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 11 | 10 | 14 |
# Negative | 13 | 14 | 10 |
Median Positive | 1.6% | 3.9% | 6.1% |
Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.3% | -5.6% |
Max Positive | 4.9% | 5.5% | 14.4% |
Max Negative | -13.1% | -10.5% | -9.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Griffith Susan Patricia | President and CEO | 9032025 | Sell | 246.06 | 30,659 | 7,543,892 | 117,193,991 | Form |
1 | Murphy John Jo | Claims President | 8252025 | Sell | 250.78 | 2,218 | 556,230 | 11,466,617 | Form |
2 | Callahan Patrick K | Personal Lines President | 8252025 | Sell | 249.96 | 6,232 | 1,557,749 | 5,402,009 | Form |
3 | Broz Steven | Chief Information Officer | 8252025 | Sell | 250.78 | 1,345 | 337,299 | 7,957,950 | Form |
4 | Niederst Lori A | CRM President | 8152025 | Sell | 250.18 | 8,063 | 2,017,201 | 9,767,152 | Form |
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