Progressive (PGR)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $198.8 | Market Cap: $116.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Progressive (PGR)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $198.8Market Cap: $116.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.6% | Key risksPGR key risks include [1] hindered policy growth from aggressive competitors, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 17 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 17 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.6% |
| Key risksPGR key risks include [1] hindered policy growth from aggressive competitors, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Analyst Price Target Reductions and Cautious Outlook.
Multiple analysts revised their price targets downward for Progressive during the specified period, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment. For instance, Citigroup significantly lowered its price target by 13.17%, from $300.60 to $261.00, in early February 2026 while maintaining a Buy rating. Similarly, BMO Capital reduced its price target to $208 from $232 in March 2026, citing expectations of flat pricing power being offset by low-single-digit claims inflation in 2026. These adjustments contributed to a consensus "Hold" rating for Progressive's stock.
2. Concerns over Sustainability of Elevated Profitability.
Despite reporting strong Q4 2025 financial results, including a 25% increase in net income to nearly $3 billion and a comprehensive return on equity of 40% for the full year 2025, the stock experienced a slight decline in premarket trading following the earnings announcement. This suggests investor apprehension regarding the long-term sustainability of such high profitability levels in an increasingly competitive auto insurance market. Analysts project more normalized profitability levels in the future, with 2026 earnings per share estimates remaining below consensus by roughly 10% for some firms.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.6% change in PGR stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 215.13 | 198.84 | -7.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 85,166 | 87,637 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 12.9% | 2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.8 | 10.3 | -12.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 586 | 586 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PGR | -7.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | -13.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | -10.0% | 13.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.4% change in PGR stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 232.22 | 198.84 | -14.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 82,376 | 87,637 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.7% | 12.9% | 1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 10.3 | -21.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 586 | 586 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PGR | -14.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | -14.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -10.8% | 17.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.9% change in PGR stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 264.86 | 198.84 | -24.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 71,960 | 87,637 | 21.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.3% | 12.9% | 14.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.1 | 10.3 | -46.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 586 | 586 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PGR | -24.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 18.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.1% | 36.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.6% change in PGR stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 786.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 131.13 | 198.84 | 51.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,587 | 87,637 | 76.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 12.9% | 786.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 106.1 | 10.3 | -90.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 584 | 586 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PGR | 51.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 14.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 40.5% | 37.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PGR Return | 11% | 27% | 23% | 51% | -3% | -5% | 141% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 14% | 8% | 32% | 17% | -0% | 137% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PGR Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 60% | 62% | 65% | 58% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PGR Max Drawdown | -10% | -1% | -11% | 0% | -13% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -7% | -14% | -0% | -4% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ALL, TRV, BRK-B, CB, HIG. See PGR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PGR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,446 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ALL, TRV, BRK-B, CB, HIG
In The Past
Progressive's stock fell -23.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/10/2023. A -23.0% loss requires a 29.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Progressive (PGR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- It's like an Amazon for insurance policies, offering a wide range of personal and commercial coverage conveniently.
- Think of it as the Carvana for auto insurance, a major player known for direct online and phone sales for cars and other vehicles.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Personal Auto Insurance: Provides insurance coverage for personal automobiles.
- Special Lines Insurance: Offers insurance for recreational vehicles, including motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, and snowmobiles.
- Commercial Auto Insurance: Supplies primary liability and physical damage insurance for various commercial vehicles used by businesses.
- Commercial Business Insurance: Delivers general liability and property insurance specifically tailored for businesses.
- Residential Property Insurance: Provides insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters.
- Personal Umbrella & Flood Insurance: Offers additional personal liability coverage and primary or excess flood insurance.
- Insurance Agency Services: Acts as an agent for other insurance products like homeowner general liability and workers' compensation insurance.
- Reinsurance Services: Provides insurance coverage to other insurance companies.
- Policy Issuance & Claims Adjusting Services: Handles the administrative tasks of issuing insurance policies and processing claims.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The company primarily sells to individuals and small businesses. Its major customer categories include:
- Individual Policyholders: This category includes customers seeking insurance for personal automobiles, recreational vehicles (such as motorcycles, RVs, ATVs, watercrafts, and snowmobiles), and personal residential properties (homeowners and renters insurance), as well as personal umbrella insurance.
- Small Businesses: This category encompasses various small business operations that require commercial auto insurance (for vehicles like vans, pick-up trucks, dump trucks, tractors, trailers, and tow trucks), business-related general liability insurance, and commercial property insurance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Tricia Griffith
President and Chief Executive Officer
Tricia Griffith was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer and elected to the Board of Directors of The Progressive Corporation in July 2016. She is the first woman to hold this position in the company's history. Ms. Griffith began her career at Progressive in 1988 as a Claims Representative. During her tenure, she has held numerous key leadership roles, including Chief Human Resources Officer (starting in 2002), President of Claims, President of Customer Operations, and Personal Lines Chief Operating Officer (since April 2015). She holds a bachelor's degree from Illinois State University and is a graduate of the Wharton School of Business' Advanced Management Program. Ms. Griffith also serves on the Board of Directors for FedEx.
John Sauerland
Chief Financial Officer
John Sauerland became Chief Financial Officer in April 2015. He joined Progressive in 1990 as a summer intern before starting full-time in 1991 as an Assistant Product Manager. Throughout his career at Progressive, he served as Product Manager for various states and as General Manager for regions including Mississippi, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. He was also the Claims General Manager responsible for claims service in eight Midwestern states. In 2006, he was named President of Progressive's Direct business, and subsequently served as President of Personal Lines for eight years. Mr. Sauerland holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics from UCLA and an MBA from the University of Chicago. He is expected to retire from Progressive on July 3, 2026.
Karen Bailo
Commercial Lines President
Karen Bailo was named Commercial Lines President in October 2020. She began her career at Progressive in 1990 as a management trainee in customer service. Her leadership roles at the company have included personal lines general manager and commercial lines controller. Ms. Bailo also led the Agency Distribution organization for nine years. Most recently, she served as the company's commercial lines acquisition and small business insurance general manager. She earned a bachelor's degree from the University of South Carolina and an MBA from the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University.
John Murphy
Claims President
John Murphy assumed the role of Claims President in December 2021, following nearly seven years as Progressive's Customer Relationship Management President. He joined Progressive as a claims representative in 1992. During his initial time in Claims, he held various strategy, process, and operations positions across the country, including regional claims manager, national implementation leader, claims business leader, and physical damage process business leader.
Andrew Quigg
Chief Strategy Officer
Andrew Quigg was named Chief Strategy Officer in July 2018. In this role, he is responsible for developing corporate strategies to achieve company objectives and identify opportunities for future profitable growth. He joined Progressive in 2007 as an agency auto product manager, managing several states in both the Direct and Agency channels. Mr. Quigg also served as a business leader for Direct Media, where he led the internal team responsible for media buying. Prior to joining Progressive, he worked at Merrill Lynch, General Mills, and McKinsey. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Yale University and an MBA from Harvard Business School. Andrew Quigg is also expected to succeed John Sauerland as CFO upon Mr. Sauerland's retirement in July 2026.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance. These risks are primarily inherent to the property and casualty insurance industry and include volatile claims costs, exposure to catastrophic weather events, and intense competition alongside regulatory pressures.- Underwriting Volatility from Rising Claims Costs: Progressive's profitability is significantly exposed to fluctuations in claims costs, driven by both economic and "social" inflation. Increased expenses for auto repairs, replacement parts, used vehicles, and medical treatments directly elevate payouts in its Personal Lines and Commercial Lines segments. For instance, motor vehicle repair costs have surged, impacting the severity of auto claims. The property segment also experiences higher rebuilding costs. These rising loss costs necessitate accurate underwriting and pricing to maintain profitability, a challenge that can lead to significant underwriting losses if premiums do not keep pace.
- Exposure to Catastrophic Weather Events and Climate Change: As a provider of personal residential and commercial property insurance, Progressive is vulnerable to the increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters, such as hurricanes, wildfires, and severe convective storms. These events can result in substantial claims payouts, particularly impacting its Property segment. The long-term implications of climate change further exacerbate this risk, leading to higher insured losses and potentially influencing the availability and affordability of property insurance in high-risk areas.
- Intense Competition and Regulatory/Legal Challenges: The insurance markets in which Progressive operates are highly competitive, characterized by numerous large national and smaller regional insurers vying for market share based on price, brand recognition, coverage, and customer service. This intense competition can exert significant pressure on pricing and underwriting margins, making it challenging for Progressive to maintain or grow its policy count profitably. Additionally, the company operates in a highly regulated environment, with complex state-level laws that can limit its flexibility in adjusting rates and product offerings. Progressive also faces ongoing litigation risks, including class-action lawsuits related to claims handling practices, which can result in substantial judgments, settlements, and increased compliance costs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The following are clear emerging threats for Progressive (PGR):
- Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): The ongoing development and eventual widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles represent a fundamental threat to the core auto insurance market, which constitutes a significant portion of Progressive's Personal Lines and Commercial Lines segments. As AV technology matures and accident rates are projected to decline significantly, the demand for traditional collision and liability insurance could diminish, and the locus of liability may shift from human drivers to vehicle manufacturers or software providers. This could fundamentally alter the business model and market size for auto insurance.
- Embedded Insurance Models: The emerging trend of product manufacturers (such as automotive companies) or other platform providers directly integrating and offering insurance solutions at the point of sale or within their service ecosystems poses a threat to traditional insurance distribution and customer acquisition. These models could bypass Progressive's independent agency and direct-to-consumer channels, allowing other entities to capture customers and insurance premiums directly, potentially eroding Progressive's market share and customer relationships across its various lines of business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Progressive (PGR) operates within several significant addressable markets in the United States.
Personal Lines
- Personal Auto Insurance: The personal auto insurance market in the U.S. recorded approximately $318 billion in premiums in 2023. This segment represented about 35.8% of the entire U.S. property and casualty insurance market in 2023. The broader United States motor insurance market, which includes personal auto, is projected to be $532.45 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach $826.30 billion by 2031. Personal motor insurance alone held 76.35% of the U.S. motor insurance market in 2025.
Commercial Lines
- Commercial Auto Insurance: The addressable market for commercial auto insurance in the U.S. was valued at $52.8 billion in 2023 and recorded approximately $61.6 billion in direct written premiums in 2024. This market is estimated to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 6% between 2024 and 2032, reaching $92.2 billion by 2032.
Property Segment
- Residential Property Insurance (Homeowners): The U.S. homeowners insurance market size was $175.1 billion in 2025. Direct written premiums in this market rose to nearly $173.1 billion in 2024. The market is projected to reach $184.59 billion in 2026 and $236.90 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.12% from 2026 to 2031.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Progressive (PGR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Continued Growth in Policyholders and Market Share: Progressive has consistently demonstrated robust growth in its customer base, adding millions of new policies, particularly within its Personal Lines segment. In 2025, the company added almost 3.7 million additional policies in force, with personal vehicles accounting for a 12% increase, or approximately 3.5 million more policies than at the end of 2024. This growth has also translated into an increased market share in the private passenger auto market, reaching around 18.5% in 2025. The company's focus on attracting and retaining a diverse customer base across its various product offerings is a significant driver.
- Expansion and Profitability in Commercial Lines: The Commercial Lines segment remains a strong area of growth and profitability for Progressive. The company has maintained excellent profitability in this segment, even when the broader commercial auto insurance industry has experienced underwriting losses. This growth is primarily driven by business auto and contractor risks, and management has indicated a "strong runway" for continued expansion in this sector.
- Strategic Use of Technology and Innovation: Progressive is leveraging technology and innovation to enhance its operations and attract customers. Initiatives such as usage-based insurance and AI-generated marketing campaigns have shown promising results. These strategic investments in AI and other technological advancements are part of management's proactive approach to improve customer acquisition, retention, and operational efficiency, thereby contributing to revenue growth.
- Broadening Product Offerings to Meet Comprehensive Customer Needs: A key strategic pillar for Progressive is to meet customers' broader insurance needs throughout their lifetimes. Beyond its core auto insurance, the company offers a range of products including personal residential, commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance. This strategy allows for effective cross-selling and deepens customer relationships, leading to increased revenue per customer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In May 2025, The Progressive Corporation's Board of Directors renewed authorization to repurchase up to 25 million common shares, with no expiration date.
- Between July and September 2025, Progressive repurchased 163,786 shares for US$40.78 million, completing a buyback tranche first announced in May 2025 totaling 193,948 shares for US$49.13 million.
- In 2023, share repurchase activity was primarily limited to offsetting dilution from employee equity grants.
Share Issuance
- In 2023, the company issued $500 million of corporate bonds to enhance its capital cushion during market volatility.
Outbound Investments
- Progressive's investment portfolio reached nearly $100 billion by year-end 2025, generating a 7.33% return in 2025.
- In 2024, the investment portfolio achieved a return of 4.6%.
- During 2023, the company's investment portfolio saw a return of 6.3%, maintaining a conservative allocation with an increased emphasis on U.S. Treasuries and reduced exposure to commercial real estate securities.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were approximately $285 million, with the latest twelve months ending September 2025 reaching $337 million.
- For fiscal year 2024, capital expenditures increased to $285 million, up 13.1% from the previous year.
- In fiscal year 2023, capital expenditures were $252 million.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 243.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 89.7 |
| Rev LTM | 63,564 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 11,711 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,504 |
| CFO LTM | 11,711 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,504 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 89.7 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 10.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 11.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 78.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Lines | 60,984 | 49,505 | 37,880 | 35,373 | 32,620 |
| Commercial Lines | 10,878 | 10,048 | 9,088 | 6,945 | 4,876 |
| Investment income | 2,832 | 1,892 | -652 | 2,370 | 2,567 |
| Service revenues | 413 | 310 | 299 | 271 | 226 |
| Net realized gains (losses) on securities | 264 | 353 | |||
| Other | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Fees and other revenues | 722 | 692 | 604 | ||
| Property | 2,270 | 2,042 | 1,766 | ||
| Total | 75,372 | 62,109 | 49,611 | 47,702 | 42,658 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $198.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 116.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/09/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $205.77 | $219.34 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.4% | -9.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.0% | 26.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Upside Capture | -55.78 | -0.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -14.7% | 18.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.55 | -0.21 | -0.19 | -0.24 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Up Beta | -1.28 | -0.90 | -0.96 | -0.63 | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Down Beta | 0.93 | -0.25 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| Up Capture | -78% | -26% | -19% | -31% | 3% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 59 | 124 | 396 |
| Down Capture | -78% | 33% | -19% | -27% | 41% | 18% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 65 | 127 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PGR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | -22.4% | 26.2% | -0.99 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | -4.0% | 19.2% | -0.33 | 37.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 18.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | -1.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 27.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 44.0% | -0.41 | -7.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PGR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | 19.8% | 24.7% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.1% | 18.7% | 0.37 | 42.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 27.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | -0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 25.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.7% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 3.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PGR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | 22.5% | 24.4% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.0% | 22.1% | 0.50 | 49.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 44.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 37.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 5.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/28/2026 | -2.1% | -3.4% | 0.4% |
| 10/15/2025 | -5.8% | -7.8% | -7.7% |
| 7/16/2025 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% |
| 4/16/2025 | -0.4% | -4.0% | 1.8% |
| 1/29/2025 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 14.4% |
| 10/15/2024 | -0.1% | -0.5% | 4.2% |
| 7/16/2024 | -3.3% | -0.4% | 2.4% |
| 4/12/2024 | 0.8% | 3.7% | 6.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 15 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -3.4% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 5.5% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.1% | -10.5% | -9.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broz, Steven | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 224.80 | 1,344 | 302,131 | 5,924,333 | Form |
| 2 | Sauerland, John P | VP and Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 228.48 | 5,000 | 1,142,400 | 50,956,621 | Form |
| 3 | Broz, Steven | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 228.29 | 1,345 | 307,050 | 6,323,129 | Form |
| 4 | Broz, Steven | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 220.00 | 1,345 | 295,900 | 6,389,414 | Form |
| 5 | Murphy, John Jo | Claims President | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 242.10 | 2,218 | 536,978 | 10,532,757 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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