Tearsheet

Progressive (PGR)


Market Price (10/13/2025): $239.01 | Market Cap: $140.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Progressive (PGR)


Market Price (10/13/2025): $239.01
Market Cap: $140.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 12%
  
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PGR Stock


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PGR Return41%11%27%23%51%2%279%
Peers Return-3%27%18%4%32%9%115%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%11%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PGR Win Rate67%42%50%58%75%56% 
Peers Win Rate57%55%63%62%67%64% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PGR Max Drawdown-5%-10%-1%-11%0%-0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-4%-6%-20%-0%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CB, TRV, ALL, MET, HIG. See PGR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/10/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventPGRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-23.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven92 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-20.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven113 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven149.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1446 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Progressive's stock fell -23.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/10/2023. A -23.0% loss requires a 29.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Progressive (PGR)

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

Better Bets than Progressive (PGR)

Trade Ideas

Select past trade ideas related to PGR and Property & Casualty Insurance.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
HLNE_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025HLNEHamilton LaneDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.3%-12.3%-12.3%
CNS_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CNSCohen & SteersDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.8%0.8%-1.6%
JKHY_9262025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09262025JKHYJack Henry & AssociatesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.4%1.4%-2.1%
FDS_9192025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09192025FDSFactSet Research SystemsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-2.1%-2.1%-4.9%
IBKR_9052025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09052025IBKRInteractive BrokersQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
14.7%14.7%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
HLNE_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025HLNEHamilton LaneDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.3%-12.3%-12.3%
CNS_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CNSCohen & SteersDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.8%0.8%-1.6%
JKHY_9262025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09262025JKHYJack Henry & AssociatesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.4%1.4%-2.1%
FDS_9192025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09192025FDSFactSet Research SystemsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-2.1%-2.1%-4.9%
IBKR_9052025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09052025IBKRInteractive BrokersQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
14.7%14.7%0.0%

See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

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Peer Comparisons for Progressive

Financials

PGRCBTRVALLMETHIGMedian
NameProgress.Chubb Traveler.Allstate MetLife Hartford. 
Mkt Price240.00283.01270.12205.6779.77129.02222.83
Mkt Cap140.7113.261.054.453.536.657.7
Rev LTM82,37657,66047,84366,21472,07827,25961,937
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM16,47214,0009,6338,53815,2295,69011,816
FCF 3Y Avg12,35013,3418,1016,41713,7934,81610,225
CFO LTM16,80014,0009,6338,74315,2295,82811,816
CFO 3Y Avg12,63413,3418,1016,67113,7935,00310,368

Growth & Margins

PGRCBTRVALLMETHIGMedian
NameProgress.Chubb Traveler.Allstate MetLife Hartford. 
Rev Chg LTM21.5%6.8%8.5%9.8%5.9%7.8%8.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.0%12.5%10.2%9.7%6.0%8.1%9.9%
Rev Chg Q21.3%6.9%7.4%5.7%-1.8%7.8%7.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.9%1.7%1.8%1.4%-0.4%1.9%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM20.4%24.3%20.1%13.2%21.1%21.4%20.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.0%25.2%18.5%10.9%19.7%19.6%19.0%
FCF/Rev LTM20.0%24.3%20.1%12.9%21.1%20.9%20.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.6%25.2%18.5%10.5%19.7%18.9%18.7%

Valuation

PGRCBTRVALLMETHIGMedian
NameProgress.Chubb Traveler.Allstate MetLife Hartford. 
Mkt Cap140.7113.261.054.453.536.657.7
P/S1.72.01.30.80.71.31.3
P/EBIT10.59.28.87.17.98.68.7
P/E13.512.311.69.312.511.312.0
P/CFO8.48.16.36.23.56.36.3
Total Yield9.5%9.4%9.4%12.5%10.8%10.4%9.9%
Dividend Yield2.0%1.3%0.8%1.8%2.8%1.6%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.3%13.5%16.6%15.5%28.1%16.3%15.9%
D/E0.00.10.10.10.40.10.1
Net D/E-0.0-0.2-1.4-0.0-1.7-0.5-0.3

Returns

PGRCBTRVALLMETHIGMedian
NameProgress.Chubb Traveler.Allstate MetLife Hartford. 
1M Rtn-3.3%1.8%-3.2%2.6%-1.3%-2.6%-2.0%
3M Rtn-2.0%2.1%6.6%6.9%3.4%7.1%5.0%
6M Rtn-12.9%0.6%11.1%7.9%13.4%12.1%9.5%
12M Rtn-3.6%-0.0%16.1%11.3%-4.0%11.8%5.7%
3Y Rtn101.9%52.6%72.9%63.7%34.1%105.8%68.3%
1M Excs Rtn-3.0%0.6%-2.8%2.1%-0.2%-2.6%-1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-7.5%-3.2%1.6%0.8%-1.3%0.9%-0.3%
6M Excs Rtn-36.5%-23.5%-13.3%-15.5%-10.5%-11.1%-14.4%
12M Excs Rtn-15.6%-11.5%5.3%0.7%-15.4%-0.5%-6.0%
3Y Excs Rtn29.0%-18.1%5.1%-7.0%-39.1%35.0%-1.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Personal Lines49,50540,74435,37332,62030,210
Commercial Lines10,0489,2166,9454,8764,428
Investment income1,8921,2602,3702,5672,071
Net realized gains (losses) on securities353-1,912   
Service revenues310300271226195
Other138  
Fees and other revenues  692604564
Property  2,0421,7661,555
Total62,10949,61147,70242,65839,022


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,206,552
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-9.0%
Average Daily Volume3,135,760
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.98
Basic Shares Quantity586,200,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/16/20251.8%2.1%2.9%
4/16/2025-0.4%-4.0%1.8%
1/29/20251.1%1.1%14.4%
10/15/2024-0.1%-0.5%4.2%
7/16/2024-3.3%-0.4%2.4%
4/12/20240.8%3.7%6.7%
1/24/20244.7%5.5%12.5%
10/13/20231.4%-0.1%4.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111014
# Negative131410
Median Positive1.6%3.9%6.1%
Median Negative-1.6%-2.3%-5.6%
Max Positive4.9%5.5%14.4%
Max Negative-13.1%-10.5%-9.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211102202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Griffith Susan PatriciaPresident and CEO9032025Sell246.0630,6597,543,892117,193,991Form
1Murphy John JoClaims President8252025Sell250.782,218556,23011,466,617Form
2Callahan Patrick KPersonal Lines President8252025Sell249.966,2321,557,7495,402,009Form
3Broz StevenChief Information Officer8252025Sell250.781,345337,2997,957,950Form
4Niederst Lori ACRM President8152025Sell250.188,0632,017,2019,767,152Form