Pfizer (PFE)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $26.52 | Market Cap: $150.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Pfizer (PFE)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $26.52Market Cap: $150.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 6.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4%, FCF Yield is 6.4% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include mRNA Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -98% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.2% Key risksPFE key risks include [1] a significant "patent cliff" threatening blockbuster drugs like Eliquis and Ibrance, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 6.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4%, FCF Yield is 6.4% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include mRNA Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -98% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.2% |
| Key risksPFE key risks include [1] a significant "patent cliff" threatening blockbuster drugs like Eliquis and Ibrance, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Balanced Earnings Performance and Reaffirmed Guidance.
Pfizer reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66 for Q4 2025 and $0.75 for Q1 2026, both surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $0.58 and $0.71-$0.72, respectively. Similarly, revenues beat expectations in both quarters, reaching $17.56 billion in Q4 2025 and $14.45 billion in Q1 2026. Despite these beats, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 financial guidance, projecting revenues between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $2.80 to $3.00. This reaffirmed guidance, while demonstrating stability, also incorporated anticipated declines from COVID-19 product revenues and upcoming patent expirations, leading to a neutral investor outlook that contributed to the stock's steady performance.
2. Decline in COVID-19 Product Revenue Offset by Growth in New and Acquired Products.
Pfizer continued to experience a significant operational decrease in revenues from its COVID-19 products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, during this period. However, this decline was largely mitigated by robust operational revenue growth of 22% from newly launched and acquired products in Q1 2026. Key contributors to this growth included oncology products like Padcev, and other products such as Eliquis and Nurtec. Furthermore, settlement agreements extending the effective U.S. patent expiry for VYNDAMAX to June 1, 2031, helped to prevent an anticipated significant revenue decline from 2029, supporting revenue stability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.5% change in PFE stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.44 | 26.05 | -1.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 62,786 | 63,314 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.7% | 11.8% | -24.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 19.8 | 29.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,685 | 5,691 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFE | -1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 23.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -6.1% | 48.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.3% change in PFE stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 57.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.82 | 26.05 | 9.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63,833 | 63,314 | -0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.8% | 11.8% | -29.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.6 | 19.8 | 57.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,685 | 5,691 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFE | 9.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 27.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.2% | 55.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.5% change in PFE stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.76 | 26.05 | 14.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63,626 | 63,314 | -0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 11.8% | -6.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 19.8 | 23.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,667 | 5,691 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFE | 14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 25.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 4.9% | 63.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.7% change in PFE stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.45 | 26.05 | -19.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 101,176 | 63,314 | -37.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.0% | 11.8% | -61.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.8 | 19.8 | 240.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,614 | 5,691 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFE | -19.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 24.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.9% | 53.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PFE Return | 67% | -10% | -41% | -2% | 1% | 8% | -6% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 27% | 5% | 11% | 26% | 2% | 134% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PFE Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 17% | 33% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 68% | 45% | 53% | 63% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PFE Max Drawdown | -8% | -28% | -47% | -11% | -17% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -6% | -17% | -7% | -14% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JNJ, MRK, ABBV, LLY, BMY. See PFE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PFE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -12.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Pfizer's stock fell -16.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | PFE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 731 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Pfizer's stock fell -16.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Pfizer (PFE)
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- Johnson & Johnson for prescription drugs and vaccines.
- The Procter & Gamble of medical treatments.
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- Premarin family: A group of hormone therapies primarily for menopausal symptoms and other related conditions.
- Eliquis: An anticoagulant medication used to prevent and treat blood clots.
- Ibrance: A prescription medicine primarily used to treat certain types of breast cancer.
- Xtandi: A medication specifically used to treat prostate cancer.
- Paxlovid: An oral antiviral treatment developed for COVID-19.
- Comirnaty/BNT162b2: Pfizer's mRNA vaccine providing protection against COVID-19, developed with BioNTech.
- Prevnar family: A series of vaccines designed to protect against pneumococcal disease.
- Xeljanz: An oral medication used for various chronic immune and inflammatory diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and ulcerative colitis.
- Vyndaqel/Vyndamax: A treatment indicated for transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy.
- BeneFIX: A coagulation factor IX treatment used for hemophilia B.
- Genotropin: A recombinant human growth hormone prescribed for growth hormone deficiency.
- Inflectra: A biosimilar medication used to treat several inflammatory conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease.
- Contract Manufacturing: Pfizer provides manufacturing services to other pharmaceutical companies.
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Pfizer (PFE) primarily sells its biopharmaceutical products to other companies and organizations. Based on the provided description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Wholesalers
- Retailers
- Hospitals
- Clinics
- Government agencies
- Pharmacies
- Individual provider offices
- Disease control and prevention centers
The provided background information describes categories of customers rather than specific named companies, therefore no public company symbols can be provided for individual customers.
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BioNTech SE (BNTX)
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Albert Bourla, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Albert Bourla joined Pfizer in 1993 and has held several executive roles across the company's divisions, including Chief Operating Officer, before becoming Chief Executive Officer in January 2019. He is credited with leading Pfizer's transformation to become a more science-driven and innovative business. Dr. Bourla earned a doctorate in the biotechnology of reproduction from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki's Veterinary School in Greece. His career at Pfizer has included leadership positions in the animal health unit, established products, and global vaccines, oncology, and consumer healthcare. He was instrumental in the development and global distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
David M. Denton, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
David M. Denton was appointed as Pfizer's Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President effective May 2, 2022. Before joining Pfizer, he served as CFO and Executive Vice President at Lowe's Companies, Inc. from 2018 to 2022. Prior to Lowe's, he had an extensive career at CVS Health, serving as CFO and Executive Vice President, and holding various leadership roles in finance and accounting for nearly two decades. At CVS, Mr. Denton played a key role in the company's transformation and was instrumental in structuring and negotiating the financing for CVS's acquisition of Aetna, which was considered one of the largest healthcare deals in history. He also led the integration of Caremark into CVS.
Chris Boshoff, MD, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer and President, Research and Development
Dr. Chris Boshoff serves as Pfizer's Chief Scientific Officer and President, Research and Development, and is also the Chief Oncology Officer.
Mike McDermott, Chief Global Supply Officer, Executive Vice President
Mike McDermott leads all of Pfizer's internal and external manufacturing and supply chain activities, ensuring the uninterrupted supply of hundreds of Pfizer's medicines and vaccines, which includes more than 38 billion doses annually. The Pfizer Global Supply (PGS) network, under his leadership, comprises approximately 30,000 colleagues and contractors and 39 Pfizer global manufacturing sites. He played a crucial role in the manufacturing and global distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
Aamir Malik, Chief U.S. Commercial Officer, Executive Vice President
Aamir Malik is Pfizer's Chief U.S. Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President, overseeing strategy, business development, portfolio management, new commercial initiatives, and innovative access relationships with payers and governments worldwide. Before joining Pfizer, Mr. Malik spent 25 years at McKinsey, where he led the firm's Global Pharmaceutical and Medical Products Practice.
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Here are the key risks to Pfizer's business:
- Patent Cliff / Loss of Exclusivity (LOE): Pfizer faces a significant "patent cliff" from 2026 to 2028, with key blockbuster drugs like Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xtandi losing patent protection. This is projected to result in a substantial decline in annual revenues, with estimates indicating a risk of $17-18 billion annually or approximately $29 billion through 2030. The loss of exclusivity could lead to rapid erosion of market share as generic and biosimilar competitors enter the market.
- Declining COVID-19 Product Sales: Revenue generated from Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and antiviral treatment, Paxlovid, is experiencing a steep decline. This decline is due to waning demand, lower vaccination rates, and the transition from government contracts to commercial market sales. This has already led to significant revenue drops and is expected to continue impacting Pfizer's top-line performance.
- Pipeline Execution and Competition: To offset the anticipated revenue declines from patent expirations and reduced COVID-19 product sales, Pfizer is heavily reliant on the successful development and commercialization of new products from its pipeline and recent acquisitions, particularly in areas like oncology and the competitive obesity market. There is a risk that these new drugs may not achieve the projected blockbuster status or may face intense competition, which could hinder the company's ability to replace lost revenues.
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Pfizer Inc. (PFE) operates in several significant addressable markets across its diverse product portfolio. The market sizes for its main products and services vary by therapeutic area and geographic region.
Vaccines
- Pneumococcal Vaccines (Prevnar family): The global pneumococcal vaccine market was estimated at approximately USD 8.07 billion in 2023. This market is projected to reach USD 12.19 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the largest revenue share in 2023.
- Meningococcal Vaccines (Nimenrix, Trumenba): The global meningococcal vaccines market was estimated at USD 4.05 billion in 2025. It is projected to reach USD 5.96 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.5% from 2026 to 2033. North America held the largest market share in 2025.
Oncology
- Global Oncology Market: The global oncology market size was estimated at USD 320.3 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to USD 866.1 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 10.8% from 2025 to 2034. North America held approximately a 43% share in the global oncology market in 2024.
- Breast Cancer (Ibrance): The global breast cancer market size was estimated at USD 26.23 billion in 2025. The global breast cancer drugs market size was estimated at USD 36.62 billion in 2024. North America dominated the global breast cancer market with a 42% share in 2025.
- Prostate Cancer (Xtandi, Sutent): The global prostate cancer market size was estimated at USD 12.88 billion in 2025. It is predicted to reach approximately USD 28.83 billion by 2035. North America leads the prostate cancer drug market, holding a 40.1% share in 2024.
- Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (Lorbrena, Sutent, Inlyta): The global non-small cell lung cancer market was estimated at USD 20.2 billion in 2024. The non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) therapeutics market size was valued at USD 38.49 billion in 2025. North America dominated the non-small cell lung cancer therapeutics market with a market share of 44.55% in 2025.
Sterile Injectable and Anti-infective Medicines
- Sterile Injectables: The global sterile injectable market size was valued at USD 36.44 billion in 2025. North America dominated this market with approximately 42.5% revenue share in 2025.
- Oral COVID-19 Treatment (Paxlovid): The global oral COVID-19 antiviral medicine market is projected to reach USD 14.07 billion by 2025. The global COVID-19 therapeutics market size will be USD 32.54 billion in 2025.
Rare Diseases
- Amyloidosis (Vyndaqel/Vyndamax): The global amyloidosis treatment market size was estimated at USD 5.80 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 11.13 billion by 2033. North America held the largest share of 39.36% of the global market in 2024.
- Hemophilia (BeneFIX): The global hemophilia market size was valued at USD 14.33 billion in 2024. It is estimated to reach USD 33.42 billion by 2033. North America dominates the market, holding over 49.7% of the total market share in 2024.
- Endocrine Diseases (Genotropin - Human Growth Hormone): The global human growth hormone market size was valued at USD 5.4 billion in 2023. This market is projected to grow to USD 9.5 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.7% from 2024 to 2032. North America dominated the market with a share of over 42% in 2023.
Cardiovascular Metabolic and Women's Health
- Cardiovascular Metabolic and Women's Health (Eliquis, Premarin family):
- Global Cardiovascular Drugs Market: The global cardiovascular drugs market size was valued at USD 54.43 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 75.90 billion by 2032. North America accounted for the largest market share in 2022.
- Global Women's Health Market: The global women's health market size was valued at USD 37.8 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 64.6 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 5.5% from 2023 to 2032. North America held the largest share in this market in 2022.
- Eliquis (Apixaban): The global apixaban market size was valued at USD 18.0 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 31.9 billion by 2032. North America dominated the apixaban market in 2022.
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Pfizer (PFE) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily stemming from its robust pipeline of newly launched products and strategic acquisitions, aiming to offset declines in COVID-19 product sales and upcoming patent expirations.
- Growth of Recently Launched Non-COVID Products: Pfizer is focused on a wave of new product launches and indications (excluding COVID-19 related offerings). The company expects these launches, many with blockbuster potential, to generate substantial sales by 2030. Specific examples contributing to this growth include the RSV vaccine Abrysvo, Velsipity for ulcerative colitis, the pentavalent meningococcal vaccine Penbraya, and the migraine nasal spray Zavzpret.
- Expansion of Oncology Portfolio through Seagen Acquisition: The acquisition of Seagen, which closed in late 2023 or early 2024, significantly bolstered Pfizer's oncology capabilities. This strategic move added four antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs)—Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa, and Tivdak—which are expected to contribute meaningfully to Pfizer's revenues. Pfizer aims to introduce at least eight new oncology medicines to the market by 2030, effectively doubling the number of cancer patients it treats.
- Entry into Metabolic Therapies with Metsera Acquisition: Pfizer's strategic investment in metabolic therapies, exemplified by its acquisition of obesity specialist Metsera in 2025, positions the company for growth in the expanding market for next-generation weight management treatments. This acquisition signifies a new therapeutic area focus designed to drive future revenue.
- Continued Performance of Key In-line Non-COVID Products: Several of Pfizer's established non-COVID products continue to provide significant revenue support. Strong performers include the Vyndaqel/Vyndamax family and the Prevnar family of vaccines. Additionally, products acquired in 2022, such as Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta, are also contributing to the top line.
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Share Repurchases
- Pfizer had a remaining share repurchase authorization of $3.3 billion as of August 5, 2025.
- The company did not complete any share repurchases in 2025 and does not anticipate any in 2025 or 2026, as per current financial guidance.
- In the first quarter of 2022, Pfizer purchased $2 billion of common stock under an existing $10 billion share repurchase authorization program established in 2018.
Share Issuance
- Pfizer issued $31 billion in senior unsecured notes in May 2023, primarily to fund the acquisition of Seagen.
- The acquisition of Seagen in March 2023 did not involve the issuance of new Pfizer shares.
- Diluted weighted-average shares outstanding were approximately 5.69 billion in Q3 2025, with guidance assuming about 5.71 billion in 2025 and 5.74 billion in 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Acquired Seagen for $43 billion in March 2023, significantly bolstering its oncology segment with antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology.
- Acquired Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holdings for $11.6 billion in May 2022, focusing on migraine therapies, including the drug Nurtec ODT.
- Acquired Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) for approximately $5.4 billion in August 2022, expanding its capabilities in hematology, particularly for treatments addressing rare blood disorders like sickle cell disease.
Capital Expenditures
- Pfizer's capital expenditures were $2.91 billion in 2024, a decrease from a peak of $3.907 billion in December 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for the upcoming fiscal year (2026) are $2.724 billion, with an average forecast of $2.566 billion over the next five fiscal years.
- These investments primarily focus on research and development, new equipment, and technology to enhance manufacturing processes and R&D capabilities in therapeutic areas such as oncology, vaccines, and rare diseases.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Pfizer Earnings Notes | 05/02/2026 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Pfizer Stock | 04/29/2026 | |
| Where Could The Next Breakout for Pfizer Stock Come From | 03/03/2026 | |
| How Does Pfizer Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 02/26/2026 | |
| Can Pfizer Stock Withstand These Pressures? | 02/11/2026 | |
| What Could Rocket Pfizer Stock to New Heights | 01/09/2026 | |
| Pfizer Stock on the Edge: 3 Threats You Need to Know | 12/17/2025 | |
| Could This Fuel The Next Surge in Pfizer Stock | 12/04/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Can Pfizer Stock Outrun A $17B Revenue Void? | 05/06/2026 | |
| How Will Pfizer Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 05/02/2026 | |
| Years of Rewards: $57 Bil From Pfizer Stock | 03/28/2026 | |
| Pfizer Stock To $20? | 03/26/2026 | |
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 02/11/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to PFE.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | PFE | Pfizer | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.4% | 19.6% | -1.6% |
| 02282023 | PFE | Pfizer | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.9% | -29.9% | -33.3% |
| 08312022 | PFE | Pfizer | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.6% | -18.6% | -19.5% |
| 02282022 | PFE | Pfizer | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.1% | -10.6% | -10.6% |
| 03312020 | PFE | Pfizer | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.0% | 15.6% | -2.7% |
| 09302019 | PFE | Pfizer | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.3% | 4.7% | -19.1% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 157.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 318.1 |
| Rev LTM | 64,541 |
| Op Inc LTM | 17,800 |
| FCF LTM | 13,012 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,283 |
| CFO LTM | 18,460 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,811 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 44.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 44.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 318.1 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.3 |
| P/EBIT | 20.9 |
| P/E | 28.3 |
| P/CFO | 17.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.2% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| BLA761369 | HYMPAVZI | marstacimab-hncq | injectable | 10112024 | -6.9% | -22.4% | -9.1% | -1.1% | -1.1% |
| NDA217439 | TALZENNA | talazoparib tosylate | capsule | 3072024 | 9.1% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 10.8% |
| NDA216956 | VELSIPITY | etrasimod arginine | tablet | 10122023 | -12.6% | -17.7% | -6.2% | -14.7% | -7.2% |
| BLA761345 | ELREXFIO | elranatamab | solution | 8142023 | -18.6% | -21.1% | -15.3% | -20.9% | -15.3% |
| NDA215830 | LITFULO | ritlecitinib tosylate | capsule | 6232023 | -13.7% | -24.0% | -23.5% | -29.5% | -19.4% |
| NDA217188 | PAXLOVID (COPACKAGED) | nirmatrelvir | tablet | 5252023 | -3.3% | -17.9% | -19.4% | -30.6% | -18.4% |
| NDA216386 | ZAVZPRET | zavegepant hydrochloride | spray, metered | 3092023 | 0.1% | -11.2% | -27.5% | -24.3% | -20.9% |
| NDA213871 | CIBINQO | abrocitinib | tablet | 1142022 | -2.6% | -4.3% | -10.1% | -43.6% | -40.8% |
| NDA213082 | XELJANZ | tofacitinib citrate | solution | 9252020 | 4.4% | 2.7% | 26.8% | 31.4% | -5.3% |
| NDA212728 | NURTEC ODT | rimegepant sulfate | tablet, orally disintegrating | 2272020 | 13.1% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 51.0% | 2.1% |
| ... | |||||||||
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $26.05 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 148.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $27.08 | $25.29 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.8% | 3.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.1% | 24.8% |
| Downside Capture | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Upside Capture | 6.17 | 57.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 25.0% | 24.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.67 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| Up Beta | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| Down Beta | -0.14 | 0.68 | 0.97 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| Up Capture | -7% | 2% | 9% | 61% | 47% | 9% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 32 | 66 | 128 | 362 |
| Down Capture | 190% | 27% | -7% | 42% | 59% | 72% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 31 | 56 | 118 | 380 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PFE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | 22.2% | 24.7% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.7% | 15.4% | 0.40 | 62.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.6% | 12.5% | 1.86 | 24.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.0% | 27.1% | 1.14 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.7% | 18.0% | 2.12 | -5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 41.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.3% | 42.1% | -0.31 | 11.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PFE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | -2.9% | 25.5% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.3% | 14.6% | 0.18 | 54.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 27.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.1% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | -0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 31.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 7.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PFE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | 2.1% | 23.9% | 0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.3% | 16.5% | 0.45 | 63.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 43.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 16.0% | 0.70 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 38.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 6.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | -3.3% | 1.5% | -0.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.5% | 0.6% | 6.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.4% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 2.2% | -3.2% | -6.2% |
| 5/1/2024 | 6.1% | 8.4% | 11.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 2.6% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 11.7% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -3.3% | -6.4% | -9.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 59.50 Bil | 61.00 Bil | 62.50 Bil | -2.4% | Lowered | Actual: 62.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted SI&A Expenses | 12.50 Bil | 13.00 Bil | 13.50 Bil | -4.4% | Lowered | Actual: 13.60 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted R&D Expenses | 10.50 Bil | 11.00 Bil | 11.50 Bil | 4.8% | Higher New | Actual: 10.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate on Adjusted Income | 15.0% | 36.4% | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 11.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3 | -5.7% | Lowered | Actual: 3.08 for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 61.00 Bil | 62.50 Bil | 64.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 62.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted SI&A Expenses | 13.10 Bil | 13.60 Bil | 14.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.60 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted R&D Expenses | 10.00 Bil | 10.50 Bil | 11.00 Bil | -3.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 10.90 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Effective Tax Rate on Adjusted Income | 11.0% | -15.4% | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 3 | 3.08 | 3.15 | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3 for 2025 | |
PFE Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock has a deeply negative risk/reward skew. While the turnaround strategy is logical, the company's competitive moat is structurally eroding due to a definite, multi-billion dollar patent cliff. This structural decay in the core business, combined with a low-growth profile, results in a 'Value Trap' classification. The potential upside from execution is dwarfed by the downside risk of failure, making it an unattractive investment.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Turnaround / Deep ValuePfizer fits the 'Turnaround' archetype as its primary challenge is executing a strategic pivot. The company is using the cash flow from its legacy (and declining COVID) portfolio to fund M&A (Seagen) and R&D in high-growth areas to navigate a massive, well-defined patent cliff. The investment thesis hinges entirely on management's execution in this race against time.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The long thesis posits that the market is overly focused on the post-COVID revenue decline and the impending patent cliff, while underappreciating the successful pivot to higher-growth therapeutic areas. The rapid growth of the newly acquired Seagen oncology portfolio and the advancement of the late-stage pipeline, particularly in obesity, are expected to offset legacy revenue losses and lead to a re-rating of the stock post-2028.
- Non-COVID portfolio revenue grew 7% operationally in Q1 2026, indicating the core business is healthy.
- Revenue from launched and acquired products grew 22% operationally in Q1 2026, showing the new growth engine is gaining traction.
- The $43B acquisition of Seagen significantly bolsters the oncology portfolio with key assets like Padcev and Adcetris.
- Management is planning ~20 pivotal trial starts in 2026, signaling heavy investment in the late-stage pipeline to fuel future growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the risk that the new product pipeline and acquisitions fail to scale quickly enough to fill the massive revenue gap created by the loss of exclusivity for multiple blockbuster drugs, including Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xeljanz. This well-defined 'patent cliff' poses a significant and mathematically certain headwind.
- The company faces a loss of exclusivity on major drugs Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xeljanz between 2026-2028.
- The expected revenue headwind from these expirations is over $3 billion in 2027 and over $6 billion in 2028.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Non-COVID Operational Revenue Growth YoY | >7% | This is the primary indicator of the health of the core, ongoing business. Sustained growth above this level is required to prove the business can absorb the COVID revenue decline. |
| Launched & Acquired Products Operational Revenue Growth YoY | >20% | This measures the success of the strategic pivot. This portfolio must grow rapidly to have any chance of offsetting the multi-billion dollar patent cliff. Any deceleration here is a major red flag. |
| Late-Stage (Phase 3) Pipeline Readouts | Positive Data | Given the revenue cliff, the company's future value is heavily dependent on its pipeline. Positive data from key trials in oncology or obesity is required to support a long-term growth narrative. |
New Portfolio Growth vs. The Patent Cliff
BULL VIEW
Strong execution on new launches, with 'Launched & Acquired Products' growing 22% operationally, proves the turnaround is working and can bridge the revenue gap over time.
CORE TENSION
Can the new product portfolio, led by the Seagen acquisition, grow fast enough to offset the massive, confirmed $15-18B revenue erosion from the 2026-2028 patent cliff?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The 'CONTESTED' moat and 'VALUE TRAP' valuation verdict show the market is pricing in the high probability that the patent cliff headwind will overwhelm current operational momentum.
BEAR VIEW
The scale of the patent cliff is too large to overcome. New product growth, while strong, is insufficient to prevent a significant medium-term decline in revenue and earnings.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
May 29 - June 2, 2026 | Oncology Pipeline Data at ASCO Annual Meeting Watch: Pivotal trial data for Seagen assets (e.g., TALAPRO-3). Watch for superior efficacy or safety headlines vs. standard of care to validate the acquisition thesis. |
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Launched & Acquired Products revenue growth. Watch for acceleration or deceleration from the +22% baseline established in Q1 2026. |
Late October / Early November 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Non-COVID Product Revenue Growth. Needs to remain above the 7% Q1 baseline to show the core business remains stable ahead of the 2027 patent cliff impact. |
Q2-Q3 2026 | IRA Price Negotiation Newsflow for Eliquis Watch: CMS announcement of the 'maximum fair price' for Eliquis. Watch for the magnitude of the price reduction versus analyst expectations (typically 25-50%). |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 17, 2025 | FDA Approval for Padcev Regimen Details: The FDA approved Padcev with Keytruda for certain bladder cancer patients, a key milestone for the recently acquired Seagen portfolio and a critical part of the oncology growth story. | Flat (+0.1%) $24.64 -> $24.66 |
Nov 4, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q3 results that exceeded analyst expectations, demonstrating initial strength in the non-COVID portfolio as the company began its strategic pivot. | Slight -1.5% pullback $23.83 -> $23.48 |
Dec 16, 2025 | Provided Full-Year 2026 Guidance Details: Pfizer provided its initial full-year 2026 guidance, forecasting revenues of $59.5 to $62.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $3.00, incorporating expected COVID declines. | Fell notably by -3.4% $25.99 -> $25.10 |
Jan 8, 2026 | J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Presentation Details: Management outlined post-pandemic strategy, focusing on Seagen integration and the pipeline to offset the 2026-2028 patent cliff and targeting a return to growth post-2028. | Flat (+0.04%) $24.86 -> $24.87 |
Feb 3, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Reported Q4 earnings beat but provided initial FY2026 guidance that included a significant ~$1.5B revenue headwind from loss of exclusivity, concerning investors about future growth. | Fell notably by -3.3% $26.66 -> $25.77 |
May 5, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Beat estimates, driven by 7% Non-COVID operational growth and 22% growth in Launched/Acquired products. Reaffirmed FY26 guidance. Stock reaction was muted despite the positive results. | Muted (+0.6%) $26.30 -> $26.45 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock volatility is moderate. However, the Bearish sentiment, Low visibility, and 'Value Trap' valuation make this a high-risk turnaround story. We cap exposure until execution against the patent cliff is proven.
Diversification Alternatives
HRMY
SECTORUnlike PFE, HRMY's core thesis rests on a single, growing product with a durable patent runway, avoiding the massive, imminent, multi-drug patent cliff creating PFE's uncertainty.
AMPH
INDUSTRYAmphastar's diversified portfolio of difficult-to-manufacture generics provides a more stable revenue base, avoiding the binary 'blockbuster-or-bust' risk profile of Pfizer.
Pfizer is executing a strategic pivot from its temporary, pandemic-driven COVID-19 franchise to its core non-COVID drug portfolio and a rebuilt R&D pipeline, with a focus on oncology and obesity, to navigate a major upcoming patent cliff.
Filter all news through the lens of offsetting the 2026-2028 patent cliff. Focus entirely on non-COVID product growth and late-stage pipeline execution, particularly in oncology and obesity.
Non-COVID portfolio revenue growth >7% YoY; revenue from launched/acquired products (especially Seagen's) >20% YoY; positive Phase 3 data from key oncology (sigtolimod vedotin, mevrometostat) or obesity (berobenatide) trials; any upward revision to full-year 2026 guidance (ex-COVID revenue).
Failure of key Phase 3 pipeline assets; faster-than-expected revenue erosion from products facing loss of exclusivity (Eliquis, Ibrance, Xeljanz); downward revisions to ex-COVID revenue or EPS guidance; significant delays in the ~20 planned pivotal study starts for 2026.
Quarterly fluctuations in Comirnaty/Paxlovid revenue (decline is expected); early-stage (Phase 1/2) pipeline announcements without clear timelines to market; general commentary on drug pricing legislation without specific, near-term revenue impact.
Repricing Catalyst
The market re-rating depends on the successful execution of two major initiatives: 1) The growth of the recently acquired Seagen oncology portfolio (Padcev, Adcetris), and 2) The advancement of the late-stage pipeline, particularly the obesity program (acquired via Metsera) and other key assets, evidenced by the ~20 pivotal trials planned to start in 2026. Key near-term readouts expected in mid-to-late 2026 for sigtolimod vedotin (NSCLC) and mevrometostat (prostate cancer) are critical validation points.
Primary Care
$22.2B TTM (38% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
Eliquis (oral anticoagulant), Prevnar family (pneumococcal vaccine), Comirnaty (COVID-19 vaccine), Paxlovid (COVID-19 oral treatment), Nurtec ODT/Vydura (migraine).
Who Pays & How
Governments and large healthcare distributors/insurers (e.g., McKesson, Cigna) pay for market-leading drugs that are standard-of-care for stroke prevention (Eliquis) and pneumonia prevention (Prevnar). The COVID products are paid for by governments for public health preparedness.
Competition
Oncology
$15.3B TTM (27% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
Ibrance (breast cancer), Xtandi (prostate cancer), Padcev (urothelial cancer), Adcetris (lymphoma), Inlyta (renal cell carcinoma).
Who Pays & How
Insurers and healthcare systems pay for therapies that extend survival in various cancers. Padcev and Adcetris, from the Seagen acquisition, are key Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) for hard-to-treat cancers.
Competition
Specialty Care
$11.8B TTM (20% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
Vyndaqel family (rare cardiovascular disease), Xeljanz (rheumatoid arthritis), Litfulo (alopecia), Velsipity (ulcerative colitis).
Who Pays & How
Insurers pay for high-cost therapies for chronic inflammatory diseases and rare diseases with limited treatment options. Patient outcomes and lack of alternatives are key drivers.
Competition
Hospital and Biosimilars
$7.4B TTM (13% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
Portfolio of generic sterile injectable medicines and biosimilars (e.g., Inflectra, a biosimilar to Remicade).
Who Pays & How
Hospitals and healthcare systems pay for lower-cost alternatives to branded biologic drugs and for essential sterile injectable medicines used in inpatient settings.
Competition
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