Pfizer (PFE)
Market Price (9/20/2026): $27.605 | Market Cap: $157.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Pfizer (PFE)
Market Price (9/20/2026): $27.605Market Cap: $157.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 6.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 7.0% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include mRNA Technology, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 36x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.2% Key risksPFE key risks include [1] a significant "patent cliff" threatening blockbuster drugs like Eliquis and Ibrance, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 6.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 7.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include mRNA Technology, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 36x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.2% |
| Key risksPFE key risks include [1] a significant "patent cliff" threatening blockbuster drugs like Eliquis and Ibrance, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Pfizer (PFE) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Pfizer reported stronger-than-expected financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 and raised its full-year revenue outlook. The company announced adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.77, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.68 by 13.24%. Quarterly revenue reached $15.03 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $14.40 billion. Following these results, reported on August 4, 2026, Pfizer increased the midpoint of its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance by $500 million, projecting a new range of $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion. This upward revision was primarily driven by the better-than-anticipated performance of its non-COVID product portfolio, contributing approximately $1.5 billion to the revised guidance.
2. The company announced an expansion of its existing multi-year cost-cutting and productivity enhancement programs. On August 4, 2026, alongside its Q2 2026 earnings report, Pfizer detailed plans to further extend its cost reduction initiatives. These new additions are expected to generate an additional $1 billion in net savings through fiscal 2029, increasing the total projected savings from the program to $6.7 billion. This expansion also includes an additional $1.5 billion in manufacturing-related cost efficiencies and broader productivity improvements across commercial, research and development (R&D), and enabling functions.
Show more
Pfizer (PFE) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Pfizer reported stronger-than-expected financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 and raised its full-year revenue outlook. The company announced adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.77, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.68 by 13.24%. Quarterly revenue reached $15.03 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $14.40 billion. Following these results, reported on August 4, 2026, Pfizer increased the midpoint of its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance by $500 million, projecting a new range of $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion. This upward revision was primarily driven by the better-than-anticipated performance of its non-COVID product portfolio, contributing approximately $1.5 billion to the revised guidance.
2. The company announced an expansion of its existing multi-year cost-cutting and productivity enhancement programs. On August 4, 2026, alongside its Q2 2026 earnings report, Pfizer detailed plans to further extend its cost reduction initiatives. These new additions are expected to generate an additional $1 billion in net savings through fiscal 2029, increasing the total projected savings from the program to $6.7 billion. This expansion also includes an additional $1.5 billion in manufacturing-related cost efficiencies and broader productivity improvements across commercial, research and development (R&D), and enabling functions.
3. Several key regulatory approvals and positive pipeline developments bolstered confidence in Pfizer's product portfolio. During the specified period, Pfizer secured significant regulatory milestones. On August 27, 2026, the U.S. FDA approved the 2026-2027 XFG-adapted COVID-19 vaccine developed in collaboration with BioNTech. In oncology, the U.S. FDA approved PADCEV® plus Keytruda® as neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer on July 10, 2026, marking the first platinum-free regimen for this indication. Additionally, on June 24, 2026, the FDA approved Pfizer's IBRANCE regimen for HR+, HER2+ metastatic breast cancer frontline maintenance. Further positive news included the announcement of positive topline Phase 3 results for LITFULO in nonsegmental vitiligo on July 30, 2026.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.5% change in PFE stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 86.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.73 | 27.66 | 7.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63,314 | 63,695 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.8% | 6.8% | -42.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.5 | 36.4 | 86.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,691 | 5,699 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFE | 7.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | 4.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 12.7% | 61.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.5% change in PFE stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 86.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.73 | 27.66 | 3.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 62,579 | 63,695 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.4% | 6.8% | -45.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.6 | 36.4 | 86.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,686 | 5,699 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFE | 3.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.5% | 53.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.5% change in PFE stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 197.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.14 | 27.66 | 19.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63,833 | 63,695 | -0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.8% | 6.8% | -59.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.2 | 36.4 | 197.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,685 | 5,699 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFE | 19.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 18.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 24.1% | 60.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.2% change in PFE stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -74.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.17 | 27.66 | -5.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 79,264 | 63,695 | -19.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.1% | 6.8% | -74.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.7 | 36.4 | 374.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5,646 | 5,699 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFE | -5.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 23.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 32.3% | 54.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PFE Return | 67% | -10% | -41% | -2% | 1% | 17% | 1% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 27% | 5% | 11% | 26% | 24% | 186% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PFE Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 17% | 33% | 42% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 68% | 45% | 53% | 63% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PFE Max Drawdown | -18% | -28% | -47% | -20% | -20% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -15% | -20% | -22% | -25% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JNJ, MRK, ABBV, LLY, BMY. See PFE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PFE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -12.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Pfizer's stock fell -16.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | PFE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 731 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Pfizer's stock fell -16.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Pfizer (PFE)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is a global biopharmaceutical company primarily engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of a wide range of medicines and vaccines. The company focuses on creating innovative healthcare solutions across various therapeutic areas to address diverse medical needs worldwide.
Pfizer’s extensive product portfolio encompasses treatments for cardiovascular, metabolic, and women's health (e.g., Eliquis), oncology (e.g., Ibrance, Xtandi), and infectious diseases, including a notable oral COVID-19 treatment (Paxlovid). It is a major developer and provider of vaccines, with offerings for diseases such as pneumococcal disease (Prevnar family), meningococcal disease, and COVID-19 (Comirnaty). The company also develops biosimilars for chronic immune and inflammatory diseases (e.g., Xeljanz) and specialized medicines for rare conditions like amyloidosis and hemophilia (e.g., Vyndaqel/Vyndamax). Additionally, Pfizer operates a contract manufacturing business.
Pfizer serves a broad customer base that includes wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, clinics, government agencies, pharmacies, and individual healthcare provider offices. This comprehensive distribution network ensures its biopharmaceutical products are accessible through various channels to patients globally, often reaching disease control and prevention centers as well.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Johnson & Johnson for prescription drugs and vaccines.
- The Procter & Gamble of medical treatments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Premarin family: A group of hormone therapies primarily for menopausal symptoms and other related conditions.
- Eliquis: An anticoagulant medication used to prevent and treat blood clots.
- Ibrance: A prescription medicine primarily used to treat certain types of breast cancer.
- Xtandi: A medication specifically used to treat prostate cancer.
- Paxlovid: An oral antiviral treatment developed for COVID-19.
- Comirnaty/BNT162b2: Pfizer's mRNA vaccine providing protection against COVID-19, developed with BioNTech.
- Prevnar family: A series of vaccines designed to protect against pneumococcal disease.
- Xeljanz: An oral medication used for various chronic immune and inflammatory diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and ulcerative colitis.
- Vyndaqel/Vyndamax: A treatment indicated for transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy.
- BeneFIX: A coagulation factor IX treatment used for hemophilia B.
- Genotropin: A recombinant human growth hormone prescribed for growth hormone deficiency.
- Inflectra: A biosimilar medication used to treat several inflammatory conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease.
- Contract Manufacturing: Pfizer provides manufacturing services to other pharmaceutical companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Pfizer (PFE) primarily sells its biopharmaceutical products to other companies and organizations. Based on the provided description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Wholesalers
- Retailers
- Hospitals
- Clinics
- Government agencies
- Pharmacies
- Individual provider offices
- Disease control and prevention centers
The provided background information describes categories of customers rather than specific named companies, therefore no public company symbols can be provided for individual customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
BioNTech SE (BNTX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Albert Bourla, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Albert Bourla joined Pfizer in 1993 and has held several executive roles across the company's divisions, including Chief Operating Officer, before becoming Chief Executive Officer in January 2019. He is credited with leading Pfizer's transformation to become a more science-driven and innovative business. Dr. Bourla earned a doctorate in the biotechnology of reproduction from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki's Veterinary School in Greece. His career at Pfizer has included leadership positions in the animal health unit, established products, and global vaccines, oncology, and consumer healthcare. He was instrumental in the development and global distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
David M. Denton, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
David M. Denton was appointed as Pfizer's Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President effective May 2, 2022. Before joining Pfizer, he served as CFO and Executive Vice President at Lowe's Companies, Inc. from 2018 to 2022. Prior to Lowe's, he had an extensive career at CVS Health, serving as CFO and Executive Vice President, and holding various leadership roles in finance and accounting for nearly two decades. At CVS, Mr. Denton played a key role in the company's transformation and was instrumental in structuring and negotiating the financing for CVS's acquisition of Aetna, which was considered one of the largest healthcare deals in history. He also led the integration of Caremark into CVS.
Chris Boshoff, MD, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer and President, Research and Development
Dr. Chris Boshoff serves as Pfizer's Chief Scientific Officer and President, Research and Development, and is also the Chief Oncology Officer.
Mike McDermott, Chief Global Supply Officer, Executive Vice President
Mike McDermott leads all of Pfizer's internal and external manufacturing and supply chain activities, ensuring the uninterrupted supply of hundreds of Pfizer's medicines and vaccines, which includes more than 38 billion doses annually. The Pfizer Global Supply (PGS) network, under his leadership, comprises approximately 30,000 colleagues and contractors and 39 Pfizer global manufacturing sites. He played a crucial role in the manufacturing and global distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
Aamir Malik, Chief U.S. Commercial Officer, Executive Vice President
Aamir Malik is Pfizer's Chief U.S. Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President, overseeing strategy, business development, portfolio management, new commercial initiatives, and innovative access relationships with payers and governments worldwide. Before joining Pfizer, Mr. Malik spent 25 years at McKinsey, where he led the firm's Global Pharmaceutical and Medical Products Practice.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Pfizer's business:
- Patent Cliff / Loss of Exclusivity (LOE): Pfizer faces a significant "patent cliff" from 2026 to 2028, with key blockbuster drugs like Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xtandi losing patent protection. This is projected to result in a substantial decline in annual revenues, with estimates indicating a risk of $17-18 billion annually or approximately $29 billion through 2030. The loss of exclusivity could lead to rapid erosion of market share as generic and biosimilar competitors enter the market.
- Declining COVID-19 Product Sales: Revenue generated from Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and antiviral treatment, Paxlovid, is experiencing a steep decline. This decline is due to waning demand, lower vaccination rates, and the transition from government contracts to commercial market sales. This has already led to significant revenue drops and is expected to continue impacting Pfizer's top-line performance.
- Pipeline Execution and Competition: To offset the anticipated revenue declines from patent expirations and reduced COVID-19 product sales, Pfizer is heavily reliant on the successful development and commercialization of new products from its pipeline and recent acquisitions, particularly in areas like oncology and the competitive obesity market. There is a risk that these new drugs may not achieve the projected blockbuster status or may face intense competition, which could hinder the company's ability to replace lost revenues.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) operates in several significant addressable markets across its diverse product portfolio. The market sizes for its main products and services vary by therapeutic area and geographic region.
Vaccines
- Pneumococcal Vaccines (Prevnar family): The global pneumococcal vaccine market was estimated at approximately USD 8.07 billion in 2023. This market is projected to reach USD 12.19 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the largest revenue share in 2023.
- Meningococcal Vaccines (Nimenrix, Trumenba): The global meningococcal vaccines market was estimated at USD 4.05 billion in 2025. It is projected to reach USD 5.96 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.5% from 2026 to 2033. North America held the largest market share in 2025.
Oncology
- Global Oncology Market: The global oncology market size was estimated at USD 320.3 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to USD 866.1 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 10.8% from 2025 to 2034. North America held approximately a 43% share in the global oncology market in 2024.
- Breast Cancer (Ibrance): The global breast cancer market size was estimated at USD 26.23 billion in 2025. The global breast cancer drugs market size was estimated at USD 36.62 billion in 2024. North America dominated the global breast cancer market with a 42% share in 2025.
- Prostate Cancer (Xtandi, Sutent): The global prostate cancer market size was estimated at USD 12.88 billion in 2025. It is predicted to reach approximately USD 28.83 billion by 2035. North America leads the prostate cancer drug market, holding a 40.1% share in 2024.
- Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (Lorbrena, Sutent, Inlyta): The global non-small cell lung cancer market was estimated at USD 20.2 billion in 2024. The non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) therapeutics market size was valued at USD 38.49 billion in 2025. North America dominated the non-small cell lung cancer therapeutics market with a market share of 44.55% in 2025.
Sterile Injectable and Anti-infective Medicines
- Sterile Injectables: The global sterile injectable market size was valued at USD 36.44 billion in 2025. North America dominated this market with approximately 42.5% revenue share in 2025.
- Oral COVID-19 Treatment (Paxlovid): The global oral COVID-19 antiviral medicine market is projected to reach USD 14.07 billion by 2025. The global COVID-19 therapeutics market size will be USD 32.54 billion in 2025.
Rare Diseases
- Amyloidosis (Vyndaqel/Vyndamax): The global amyloidosis treatment market size was estimated at USD 5.80 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 11.13 billion by 2033. North America held the largest share of 39.36% of the global market in 2024.
- Hemophilia (BeneFIX): The global hemophilia market size was valued at USD 14.33 billion in 2024. It is estimated to reach USD 33.42 billion by 2033. North America dominates the market, holding over 49.7% of the total market share in 2024.
- Endocrine Diseases (Genotropin - Human Growth Hormone): The global human growth hormone market size was valued at USD 5.4 billion in 2023. This market is projected to grow to USD 9.5 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.7% from 2024 to 2032. North America dominated the market with a share of over 42% in 2023.
Cardiovascular Metabolic and Women's Health
- Cardiovascular Metabolic and Women's Health (Eliquis, Premarin family):
- Global Cardiovascular Drugs Market: The global cardiovascular drugs market size was valued at USD 54.43 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 75.90 billion by 2032. North America accounted for the largest market share in 2022.
- Global Women's Health Market: The global women's health market size was valued at USD 37.8 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 64.6 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 5.5% from 2023 to 2032. North America held the largest share in this market in 2022.
- Eliquis (Apixaban): The global apixaban market size was valued at USD 18.0 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 31.9 billion by 2032. North America dominated the apixaban market in 2022.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Pfizer (PFE) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily stemming from its robust pipeline of newly launched products and strategic acquisitions, aiming to offset declines in COVID-19 product sales and upcoming patent expirations.
- Growth of Recently Launched Non-COVID Products: Pfizer is focused on a wave of new product launches and indications (excluding COVID-19 related offerings). The company expects these launches, many with blockbuster potential, to generate substantial sales by 2030. Specific examples contributing to this growth include the RSV vaccine Abrysvo, Velsipity for ulcerative colitis, the pentavalent meningococcal vaccine Penbraya, and the migraine nasal spray Zavzpret.
- Expansion of Oncology Portfolio through Seagen Acquisition: The acquisition of Seagen, which closed in late 2023 or early 2024, significantly bolstered Pfizer's oncology capabilities. This strategic move added four antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs)—Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa, and Tivdak—which are expected to contribute meaningfully to Pfizer's revenues. Pfizer aims to introduce at least eight new oncology medicines to the market by 2030, effectively doubling the number of cancer patients it treats.
- Entry into Metabolic Therapies with Metsera Acquisition: Pfizer's strategic investment in metabolic therapies, exemplified by its acquisition of obesity specialist Metsera in 2025, positions the company for growth in the expanding market for next-generation weight management treatments. This acquisition signifies a new therapeutic area focus designed to drive future revenue.
- Continued Performance of Key In-line Non-COVID Products: Several of Pfizer's established non-COVID products continue to provide significant revenue support. Strong performers include the Vyndaqel/Vyndamax family and the Prevnar family of vaccines. Additionally, products acquired in 2022, such as Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta, are also contributing to the top line.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Pfizer had a remaining share repurchase authorization of $3.3 billion as of August 5, 2025.
- The company did not complete any share repurchases in 2025 and does not anticipate any in 2025 or 2026, as per current financial guidance.
- In the first quarter of 2022, Pfizer purchased $2 billion of common stock under an existing $10 billion share repurchase authorization program established in 2018.
Share Issuance
- Pfizer issued $31 billion in senior unsecured notes in May 2023, primarily to fund the acquisition of Seagen.
- The acquisition of Seagen in March 2023 did not involve the issuance of new Pfizer shares.
- Diluted weighted-average shares outstanding were approximately 5.69 billion in Q3 2025, with guidance assuming about 5.71 billion in 2025 and 5.74 billion in 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Acquired Seagen for $43 billion in March 2023, significantly bolstering its oncology segment with antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology.
- Acquired Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holdings for $11.6 billion in May 2022, focusing on migraine therapies, including the drug Nurtec ODT.
- Acquired Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) for approximately $5.4 billion in August 2022, expanding its capabilities in hematology, particularly for treatments addressing rare blood disorders like sickle cell disease.
Capital Expenditures
- Pfizer's capital expenditures were $2.91 billion in 2024, a decrease from a peak of $3.907 billion in December 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for the upcoming fiscal year (2026) are $2.724 billion, with an average forecast of $2.566 billion over the next five fiscal years.
- These investments primarily focus on research and development, new equipment, and technology to enhance manufacturing processes and R&D capabilities in therapeutic areas such as oncology, vaccines, and rare diseases.
Peer Outperformance in Pharmaceuticals
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | Pfizer | -5.2% | 36.4x | 23.2% | -0.2% | -18.5% | — |
| VTRS | Viatris | -1.8% | -48.0x | 77.3% | 94.6% | 56.9% | +75pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 16.2% | 43.6% | 89.3% | CAH 387% · MCK 344% · COR 167% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 21.1% | 38.6% | 1.2% | HIMS 248% · RDNT 176% · DGX 76% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 40.4% | -3.7% | 0.8% | OSCR 87% · HQY 54% · ELV 17% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 6.0% | 4.6% | -9.2% | NHC 272% · THC 265% · ENSG 129% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -2.7% | -3.3% | -20.5% | POCI 11050% · UFPT 344% · GKOS 216% |
| Pharmaceuticals ← | 62 | -10.5% | 14.7% | -38.8% | LQDA 2512% · INDV 1092% · ETON 1040% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 14.1% | -11.1% | -40.0% | LNTH 290% · HAE 57% · MMSI 19% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 109 | 4.3% | -12.6% | -67.5% | SNWV 1757% · MEDP 235% · NTRA 209% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -25.8% | -52.4% | -79.1% | SPOK 69% · HSTM 3% · VEEV -12% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | 0.6% | -21.4% | -79.3% | CELZ 1280% · DNTH 1217% · ELVN 1080% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Pfizer Stock's Next Chapter Might Be Hiding in Plain Sight | 08/20/2026 | |
| Pfizer Stock Pays Out $49 Bil - Investors Take Note | 08/11/2026 | |
| Pfizer Earnings Notes | 05/02/2026 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Pfizer Stock | 04/29/2026 | |
| Where Could The Next Breakout for Pfizer Stock Come From | 03/03/2026 | |
| How Does Pfizer Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 02/26/2026 | |
| Can Pfizer Stock Withstand These Pressures? | 02/11/2026 | |
| What Could Rocket Pfizer Stock to New Heights | 01/09/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is Pfizer’s New Business Big Enough To Carry The Old One? | 09/16/2026 | |
| Why Is Pfizer Stock Paying You So Much To Wait? | 09/14/2026 | |
| Pfizer Stock Or Zoetis: Is The Comeback Worth Paying Up For? | 09/10/2026 | |
| 14 Large Cap Stocks Just Made New 52-Week Highs | 09/03/2026 | |
| Can AI Save Pfizer Stock Before Its Patent Cliff Hits? | 09/02/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 205.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 414.9 |
| Rev LTM | 65,478 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,434 |
| FCF LTM | 14,812 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,816 |
| CFO LTM | 19,737 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,454 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 30.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 29.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 414.9 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.1 |
| P/EBIT | 24.9 |
| P/E | 37.5 |
| P/CFO | 20.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 50.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 65.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 32.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| BLA761369 | HYMPAVZI | marstacimab-hncq | injectable | 10112024 | -6.9% | -22.4% | -9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| NDA217439 | TALZENNA | talazoparib tosylate | capsule | 3072024 | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 21.7% |
| NDA216956 | VELSIPITY | etrasimod arginine | tablet | 10122023 | -12.6% | -17.7% | -6.2% | -14.7% | 1.9% |
| BLA761345 | ELREXFIO | elranatamab | solution | 8142023 | -18.6% | -21.1% | -15.3% | -20.9% | -7.0% |
| NDA215830 | LITFULO | ritlecitinib tosylate | capsule | 6232023 | -13.7% | -24.0% | -23.5% | -29.5% | -11.4% |
| NDA217188 | PAXLOVID (COPACKAGED) | nirmatrelvir | tablet | 5252023 | -3.3% | -17.9% | -19.4% | -30.6% | -10.3% |
| NDA216386 | ZAVZPRET | zavegepant hydrochloride | spray, metered | 3092023 | 0.1% | -11.2% | -27.5% | -24.3% | -13.1% |
| NDA213871 | CIBINQO | abrocitinib | tablet | 1142022 | -2.6% | -4.3% | -10.1% | -43.6% | -35.0% |
| NDA213082 | XELJANZ | tofacitinib citrate | solution | 9252020 | 4.4% | 2.7% | 26.8% | 31.4% | 4.0% |
| NDA212728 | NURTEC ODT | rimegepant sulfate | tablet, orally disintegrating | 2272020 | 13.1% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 51.0% | 12.2% |
| ... | |||||||||
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA BLA # | Brand Name | Generic Name | License Type | First Approval | Latest Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| 125770 | PENBRAYA | meningococcal groups a, b, c, w, and y vaccine | 351(a) | 10/20/2023 | 10/20/2023 | -6.5% | -12.7% | 1.0% | -9.4% | 9.4% |
| 125769 | Abrysvo | respiratory syncytial virus vaccine | 351(a) | 5/31/2023 | 5/31/2023 | -4.5% | -18.9% | -21.7% | -30.4% | -10.8% |
| 125740 | Ticovac | tick-borne encephalitis vaccine | 351(a) | 8/13/2021 | 8/13/2021 | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | -20.1% | -25.7% |
| 125731 | Prevnar 20 | pneumococcal 20-valent conjugate vaccine | 351(a) | 6/8/2021 | 6/8/2021 | 21.4% | 35.5% | 42.3% | 7.9% | -6.4% |
| 125549 | Trumenba | meningococcal group b vaccine | 351(a) | 10/29/2014 | 10/29/2014 | 9.3% | 18.3% | 21.9% | 16.0% | 58.2% |
| 125264 | Xyntha | antihemophilic factor (recombinant), plasma/albumin free | 351(a) | 2/21/2008 | 8/6/2010 | -10.3% | -10.7% | -34.3% | -10.2% | 176.0% |
| 103677 | Benefix | coagulation factor ix (recombinant) | 351(a) | 2/11/1997 | 11/23/2011 | 10.6% | 17.6% | 85.7% | 196.1% | 409.3% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| BLA761369 | HYMPAVZI | marstacimab-hncq | injectable | 10112024 | -6.9% | -22.4% | -9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| NDA217439 | TALZENNA | talazoparib tosylate | capsule | 3072024 | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 21.7% |
| NDA216956 | VELSIPITY | etrasimod arginine | tablet | 10122023 | -12.6% | -17.7% | -6.2% | -14.7% | 1.9% |
| BLA761345 | ELREXFIO | elranatamab | solution | 8142023 | -18.6% | -21.1% | -15.3% | -20.9% | -7.0% |
| NDA215830 | LITFULO | ritlecitinib tosylate | capsule | 6232023 | -13.7% | -24.0% | -23.5% | -29.5% | -11.4% |
| NDA217188 | PAXLOVID (COPACKAGED) | nirmatrelvir | tablet | 5252023 | -3.3% | -17.9% | -19.4% | -30.6% | -10.3% |
| NDA216386 | ZAVZPRET | zavegepant hydrochloride | spray, metered | 3092023 | 0.1% | -11.2% | -27.5% | -24.3% | -13.1% |
| NDA213871 | CIBINQO | abrocitinib | tablet | 1142022 | -2.6% | -4.3% | -10.1% | -43.6% | -35.0% |
| NDA213082 | XELJANZ | tofacitinib citrate | solution | 9252020 | 4.4% | 2.7% | 26.8% | 31.4% | 4.0% |
| NDA212728 | NURTEC ODT | rimegepant sulfate | tablet, orally disintegrating | 2272020 | 13.1% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 51.0% | 12.2% |
| BLA761118 | ABRILADA | adalimumab-afzb | injectable | 11152019 | -1.1% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 44.3% | 3.6% |
| NDA212436 | IBRANCE | palbociclib | tablet | 11012019 | -1.1% | 0.0% | -3.9% | 23.3% | 1.6% |
| BLA761103 | RUXIENCE | rituximab-pvvr | injectable | 7232019 | -14.7% | -4.6% | -7.0% | 4.2% | -8.6% |
| BLA761099 | ZIRABEV | bevacizumab-bvzr | injectable | 6272019 | -16.8% | -7.6% | -23.3% | -2.8% | -9.3% |
| BLA761081 | TRAZIMERA | trastuzumab-qyyp | injectable | 3112019 | 4.7% | -9.6% | -13.4% | -8.9% | -4.3% |
| NDA210656 | DAURISMO | glasdegib maleate | tablet | 11212018 | -1.2% | -0.9% | -9.2% | -8.1% | -7.0% |
| NDA210868 | LORBRENA | lorlatinib | tablet | 11022018 | 1.5% | -2.0% | -7.4% | -11.0% | -5.9% |
| NDA211651 | TALZENNA | talazoparib tosylate | capsule | 10162018 | -2.0% | -5.3% | -14.4% | -10.4% | -8.1% |
| NDA211288 | VIZIMPRO | dacomitinib | tablet | 9272018 | -1.6% | -2.1% | -14.6% | -11.6% | -8.0% |
| BLA761072 | IXIFI | infliximab-qbtx | injectable | 12132017 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 26.0% | 12.4% | 13.3% |
| NDA207621 | TROXYCA ER | naltrexone hydrochloride | capsule, extended release | 8192016 | -9.1% | -1.9% | -2.8% | 29.8% | 24.6% |
| NDA208246 | XELJANZ XR | tofacitinib citrate | tablet, extended release | 2232016 | 14.8% | 19.2% | 16.4% | 28.6% | 47.9% |
| NDA207103 | IBRANCE | palbociclib | capsule | 2032015 | 7.5% | 14.7% | -3.3% | 7.4% | 44.5% |
| BLA022458 | ELELYSO | taliglucerase alfa | powder | 5012012 | 6.6% | 13.8% | 31.6% | 46.5% | 123.4% |
| NDA201370 | HEPARIN SODIUM | heparin sodium | injectable | 7212011 | -5.8% | 11.0% | 22.9% | 56.2% | 161.3% |
| NDA022030 | TOVIAZ | fesoterodine fumarate | tablet, extended release | 10312008 | -16.2% | -20.3% | 2.1% | 8.7% | 238.1% |
| NDA021483 | GEODON | ziprasidone hydrochloride | suspension | 3292006 | -8.4% | 14.7% | 4.6% | -11.4% | 167.3% |
| NDA021948 | ERAXIS | anidulafungin | injectable | 2172006 | -6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | -5.6% | 161.3% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA BLA # | Brand Name | Generic Name | License Type | First Approval | Latest Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| 125770 | PENBRAYA | meningococcal groups a, b, c, w, and y vaccine | 351(a) | 10/20/2023 | 10/20/2023 | -6.5% | -12.7% | 1.0% | -9.4% | 9.4% |
| 125769 | Abrysvo | respiratory syncytial virus vaccine | 351(a) | 5/31/2023 | 5/31/2023 | -4.5% | -18.9% | -21.7% | -30.4% | -10.8% |
| 125740 | Ticovac | tick-borne encephalitis vaccine | 351(a) | 8/13/2021 | 8/13/2021 | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | -20.1% | -25.7% |
| 125731 | Prevnar 20 | pneumococcal 20-valent conjugate vaccine | 351(a) | 6/8/2021 | 6/8/2021 | 21.4% | 35.5% | 42.3% | 7.9% | -6.4% |
| 125549 | Trumenba | meningococcal group b vaccine | 351(a) | 10/29/2014 | 10/29/2014 | 9.3% | 18.3% | 21.9% | 16.0% | 58.2% |
| 125264 | Xyntha | antihemophilic factor (recombinant), plasma/albumin free | 351(a) | 2/21/2008 | 8/6/2010 | -10.3% | -10.7% | -34.3% | -10.2% | 176.0% |
| 103677 | Benefix | coagulation factor ix (recombinant) | 351(a) | 2/11/1997 | 11/23/2011 | 10.6% | 17.6% | 85.7% | 196.1% | 409.3% |
Clinical Pipeline
| Drug Candidate | Indication | Phase 3 Trials | Est. Primary Completion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elranatamab | Multiple myeloma | 4 | Aug 2026 |
| RSV Vaccine (RSVpreF) | Prevention of respiratory syncytial virus infection | 4 | Aug 2026 |
| Rimegepant (PF-07899801) | Treatment and prevention of migraine | 5 | Nov 2026 |
| Ritlecitinib | Alopecia areata and vitiligo | 6 | Dec 2026 |
| Mevrometostat (PF-06821497) | Prostate cancer | 3 | Dec 2026 |
| Lyme Disease Vaccine (VLA15) | Prevention of Lyme disease | 2 | Dec 2026 |
| Vepdegestrant (ARV-471 / PF-07850327) | Advanced breast cancer | 2 | Dec 2026 |
| Avelumab | Advanced malignancies | 1 | Dec 2026 |
| Tofacitinib | Ulcerative colitis | 1 | Mar 2027 |
| Abrocitinib | Atopic dermatitis and eczema | 2 | May 2027 |
| ... |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biopharma | 61,199 | 62,400 | 58,237 | 99,826 | 79,557 |
| Other business activities | 1,380 | 1,228 | 1,316 | 1,349 | 1,731 |
| Total | 62,579 | 63,628 | 59,553 | 101,175 | 81,288 |
| $ Mil | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharmaceuticals | 21,510 | 6,837 | 12,920 | 10,936 | 8,859 |
| Consumer Healthcare | 667 | 571 | |||
| Animal Health | 353 | 100 | |||
| Other | -8,523 | -4,245 | |||
| Consumer Products | 546 | 787 | 813 | ||
| Total | 14,007 | 3,263 | 13,466 | 11,723 | 9,672 |
| $ Mil | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biopharmaceutical | 123,560 | 120,789 | |||
| Corporate/Other | 52,638 | 74,980 | |||
| Diversified | 18,255 | 16,684 | |||
| Discontinued operations/Held for sale | 561 | 496 | |||
| Animal Health | 2,075 | 2,043 | 1,951 | ||
| Corporate/other | 148 | ||||
| Pharmaceutical | 60,591 | 67,431 | 72,497 | ||
| Total | 195,014 | 212,949 | 62,814 | 69,474 | 74,448 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 157.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $26.54 | $25.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.2% | 8.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.4% | 23.3% |
| Downside Capture | -1.28 | 30.07 |
| Upside Capture | 57.18 | 49.27 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 4.3% | 18.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.53 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| Up Beta | 0.14 | -0.38 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Down Beta | 1.94 | 0.40 | -0.06 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.53 |
| Up Capture | 145% | 88% | 22% | 10% | 35% | 9% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 24 | 32 | 62 | 127 | 368 |
| Down Capture | -106% | -86% | -29% | -1% | 33% | 64% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 32 | 64 | 120 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PFE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | 23.2% | 23.2% | 0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 24.4% | 16.1% | 1.16 | 60.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 18.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | 8.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.3% | 20.6% | 1.73 | -6.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 35.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.6% | 44.3% | -0.70 | 10.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PFE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | -4.6% | 25.3% | -0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.4% | 15.2% | 0.24 | 54.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 26.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.5% | 0.45 | -2.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 32.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.5% | 0.42 | 8.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PFE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | 2.3% | 24.0% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.6% | 16.7% | 0.51 | 63.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 42.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 38.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.6% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 6.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 1.5% | 8.1% | 14.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | 0.6% | -0.2% | -2.1% |
| 2/3/2026 | -3.3% | 1.5% | -0.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.5% | 0.6% | 6.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.4% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 3.6% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 11.7% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -3.3% | -6.4% | -9.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 1.5% | 8.1% | 14.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | 0.6% | -0.2% | -2.1% |
| 2/3/2026 | -3.3% | 1.5% | -0.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.5% | 0.6% | 6.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.4% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 2.2% | -3.2% | -6.2% |
| 5/1/2024 | 6.1% | 8.4% | 11.7% |
| 1/30/2024 | -1.7% | -3.3% | -1.6% |
| 12/14/2023 | -2.0% | 3.6% | 6.2% |
| 10/13/2023 | 3.6% | -4.5% | -8.5% |
| 8/1/2023 | -1.2% | -1.1% | 0.2% |
| 5/2/2023 | -0.4% | -1.4% | -2.0% |
| 1/31/2023 | 1.4% | 0.5% | -7.7% |
| 11/1/2022 | 3.1% | 2.0% | 8.6% |
| 7/28/2022 | -1.6% | -3.3% | -7.1% |
| 5/3/2022 | 2.0% | 0.6% | 9.2% |
| 2/8/2022 | -2.8% | -6.4% | -8.4% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 11.7% | 26.4% |
| 7/28/2021 | 3.2% | 9.5% | 13.9% |
| 5/4/2021 | 0.3% | 1.1% | -1.7% |
| 2/2/2021 | -2.3% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10/27/2020 | -1.3% | -4.5% | -2.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 3.6% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 11.7% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -3.3% | -6.4% | -9.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/6/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted SI&A Expenses | Reported | 12.50 Bil | 13.00 Bil | 13.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted R&D Expenses | Reported | 10.50 Bil | 11.00 Bil | 11.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 60.50 Bil | 61.50 Bil | 62.50 Bil | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 61.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate on Adjusted Income | Reported | 15.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.9 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted SI&A Expenses | Reported | 12.50 Bil | 13.00 Bil | 13.50 Bil | -4.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 13.60 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted R&D Expenses | Reported | 10.50 Bil | 11.00 Bil | 11.50 Bil | 4.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 59.50 Bil | 61.00 Bil | 62.50 Bil | -2.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 62.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate on Adjusted Income | Reported | 15.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 11.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3 | -5.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.08 for 2025 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted SI&A Expenses | Reported | 12.50 Bil | 13.00 Bil | 13.50 Bil | -4.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 13.60 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted R&D Expenses | Reported | 10.50 Bil | 11.00 Bil | 11.50 Bil | 4.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 59.50 Bil | 61.00 Bil | 62.50 Bil | -2.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 62.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate on Adjusted Income | Reported | 15.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 11.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3 | -5.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.08 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted SI&A Expenses | Reported | 13.10 Bil | 13.60 Bil | 14.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.60 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted R&D Expenses | Reported | 10.00 Bil | 10.50 Bil | 11.00 Bil | -3.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 10.90 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 61.00 Bil | 62.50 Bil | 64.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 62.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Effective Tax Rate on Adjusted Income | Reported | 11.0% | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 3 | 3.08 | 3.15 | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bourla, Albert | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Buy | 8122026 | 26.34 | 38,000 | 1,000,920 | 11,304,417 | Form |
| 2 | Blaylock, Ronald E | Direct | Buy | 8052026 | 25.46 | 39,231 | 998,821 | 1,704,241 | Form | |
| 3 | Buckley, Mortimer J | Direct | Buy | 8052026 | 25.52 | 37,632 | 960,369 | 960,369 | Form | |
| 4 | Damico, Jennifer B | SVP & Controller | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 25.70 | 2,000 | 51,400 | 806,903 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bourla, Albert | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Buy | 8122026 | 26.34 | 38,000 | 1,000,920 | 11,304,417 | Form |
| 2 | Blaylock, Ronald E | Direct | Buy | 8052026 | 25.46 | 39,231 | 998,821 | 1,704,241 | Form | |
| 3 | Buckley, Mortimer J | Direct | Buy | 8052026 | 25.52 | 37,632 | 960,369 | 960,369 | Form | |
| 4 | Damico, Jennifer B | SVP & Controller | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 25.70 | 2,000 | 51,400 | 806,903 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 20, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $44.8 Mil | 12.3% | 17 | TRIM -22.0% | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $50.0 Mil | 10.1% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $30.6 Mil | 7.2% | 42 | ADD +27.0% | 13F |
| Allen Holding Inc /Ny | $56.2 Mil | 5.6% | 9 | ADD +31.6% | 13F |
| Wilsey Asset Management Inc | $33.3 Mil | 5.2% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| America First Investment Advisors, LLC | $25.2 Mil | 4.7% | 41 | ADD +7.6% | 13F |
| Coerente Capital Management | $19.7 Mil | 3.7% | 47 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $33.9 Mil | 3.6% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Unisphere Establishment | $411.4 Mil | 3.5% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Boothe Investment Group, Inc. | $9.9 Mil | 3.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Defilade Capital Management, L.P. | $19.4 Mil | 2.7% | 31 | TRIM -33.6% | 13F |
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $80.6 Mil | 2.7% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Kahn Brothers Group Inc | $13.6 Mil | 2.4% | 48 | TRIM -12.5% | 13F |
| Bruce & Co., Inc. | $7.6 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $15.3 Mil | 1.9% | 47 | TRIM -7.0% | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $6.9 Mil | 1.8% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $7.9 Mil | 1.6% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings LTD/ Can | $27.8 Mil | 1.4% | 29 | ADD +11.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $80.6 Mil | 2.7% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $33.9 Mil | 3.6% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Allen Holding Inc /Ny | $56.2 Mil | 5.6% | 9 | ADD +31.6% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $30.6 Mil | 7.2% | 42 | ADD +27.0% | 13F |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings LTD/ Can | $27.8 Mil | 1.4% | 29 | ADD +11.2% | 13F |
| America First Investment Advisors, LLC | $25.2 Mil | 4.7% | 41 | ADD +7.6% | 13F |
| Coerente Capital Management | $19.7 Mil | 3.7% | 47 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avidity Partners Management LP | $5.1 Mil | 1.5% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Defilade Capital Management, L.P. | $19.4 Mil | 2.7% | 31 | TRIM -33.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $44.8 Mil | 12.3% | 17 | TRIM -22.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Kahn Brothers Group Inc | $13.6 Mil | 2.4% | 48 | TRIM -12.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $15.3 Mil | 1.9% | 47 | TRIM -7.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unisphere Establishment | $411.4 Mil | 3.5% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $80.6 Mil | 2.7% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Allen Holding Inc /Ny | $56.2 Mil | 5.6% | 9 | ADD +31.6% | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $50.0 Mil | 10.1% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $44.8 Mil | 12.3% | 17 | TRIM -22.0% | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $33.9 Mil | 3.6% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Wilsey Asset Management Inc | $33.3 Mil | 5.2% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $30.6 Mil | 7.2% | 42 | ADD +27.0% | 13F |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings LTD/ Can | $27.8 Mil | 1.4% | 29 | ADD +11.2% | 13F |
| America First Investment Advisors, LLC | $25.2 Mil | 4.7% | 41 | ADD +7.6% | 13F |
| Coerente Capital Management | $19.7 Mil | 3.7% | 47 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Defilade Capital Management, L.P. | $19.4 Mil | 2.7% | 31 | TRIM -33.6% | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $15.3 Mil | 1.9% | 47 | TRIM -7.0% | 13F |
| Kahn Brothers Group Inc | $13.6 Mil | 2.4% | 48 | TRIM -12.5% | 13F |
| Boothe Investment Group, Inc. | $9.9 Mil | 3.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $7.9 Mil | 1.6% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Bruce & Co., Inc. | $7.6 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $6.9 Mil | 1.8% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
PFE Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Pfizer is executing a difficult transition, with new and acquired products growing 18% operationally in the latest quarter. This strength led management to raise 2026 revenue guidance. The core challenge remains navigating a significant, multi-year loss of exclusivity for key drugs, but current performance suggests the strategy to outgrow this headwind is on track.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Patented Product Lifecycle∑ (Volume of each drug sold) x (Net Realized Price per unit after rebates) The mix of sales from high-margin, on-patent drugs versus products facing generic competition. Successful R&D and commercial launches of new, protected drugs are the primary drivers of margin expansion.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the transition is succeeding, with new growth drivers outperforming expectations and funding the pipeline.
- Launched and acquired products grew 18% operationally in Q2 2026.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $60.5B-$62.5B.
- Pipeline includes 8 key readouts over the next 12 months.
- Non-COVID business grew 5% operationally in Q2 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The company faces a 'significant reduction of revenue' from 2026-2030 as multiple blockbusters lose exclusivity. The scale of this loss, starting with a $1.5 billion impact in 2026, may prove too large for the new portfolio to replace in time, leading to revenue contraction.
- Anticipates significant revenue reduction from expiries from 2026-2030.
- Rate of revenue reduction is expected to significantly accelerate.
- Eliquis, 13% of 2025 revenue, faces new government-set pricing.
- Net debt stands at $51.5 billion after funding acquisitions.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Launched and Acquired Products Revenue Growth | 18% operational growth in Q2 2026 - Accelerating | While the reported year-over-year growth rate slowed, management stated the Q2 2026 figure was 'tempered by onetime items recorded in the second quarter of 2025'. Excluding this impact, the growth rate was 27%, which would represent a significant acceleration from the prior quarter's 22% growth. |
| Non-COVID Products Revenue Growth | 5% operational growth in Q2 2026 - Decelerating | The consistent slowdown in the growth of the core business, excluding the volatile COVID franchise, indicates increasing pressure on mature products, even as new launches perform well. |
| Non-COVID Operational Revenue Growth | 5% (Q2 2026) | This measures the health of the underlying core business, excluding the volatile COVID-19 franchise. Positive growth demonstrates the resilience of the base portfolio. |
New Product Momentum vs. Accelerating Patent Cliff
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the 18% operational growth in new products and raised 2026 revenue guidance as proof that management's acquisition and R&D strategy is working, creating a new, more durable growth profile post-2028.
CORE TENSION
Can 18% growth in new products offset an accelerating patent cliff, which the market rewarded with a 3% post-earnings stock gain?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The Q2 2026 guidance increase demonstrates that new product momentum is currently more than offsetting headwinds from both COVID franchise decline and patent expiries.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the $1.5 billion revenue impact from patent expiries in 2026 as just the start of an accelerating decline that new products, despite current strength, cannot realistically offset, creating a value trap.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 11:50 a.m. BST | JP Morgan Conference Presentation Watch: Pfizer executive to speak at the J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars 2026 Conference. |
10/13/2026 | Peer JNJ Earnings Report Watch: Peer Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/29/2026 | Peer Competitive Data Reset Watch: LLY's results and guidance for its GLP-1 franchise, which could reset investor expectations for the obesity market. |
in the fourth quarter | a company initiative Trial Readout Watch: Expected data readout for the a company initiative study of mevrometostat in post-abiraterone metastatic hormone-resistant prostate cancer. |
this year | Amylin Combination Data Watch: Expected data from Phase I/IIa studies of amylin analog 3945 monotherapy and in combination with berobenatide. |
11/2/2026 | COVID Franchise Underperformance Watch: Q3 sales for Comirnaty and Paxlovid versus the lowered guidance; any further revision to the full-year outlook. |
11/2/2026 | IRA Pricing Impact Materialization Watch: Management commentary on the financial impact of the Eliquis price change and any effect on gross margin trends. |
Q4 2026 | Pipeline Readout Disappointment Watch: Top-line data release for the a company initiative study. A negative result would be a setback for a key late-stage asset. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-04 | Q2 Earnings Beat, Guidance Raised Details: Pfizer reported Q2 results, raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance by $500 million at the midpoint while reaffirming adjusted diluted EPS guidance. | +3.1% $25.03 -> $25.81 |
2026-07-30 | LITFULO Vitiligo Data Positive Details: Pfizer announced positive topline results from two Phase 3 trials (TRANQUILLO and TRANQUILLO 2) for LITFULO in patients with nonsegmental vitiligo. | -0.6% $25.15 -> $25.01 |
2026-06-18 | CFO Departure Announced Details: CFO David Denton's departure to become CFO at Nike was announced, with Cecile Guegan named as interim CFO. News reports noted the stock fell on the news. | -3.2% $25.47 -> $24.65 |
2026-05-28 | Innovent Oncology Collaboration Details: Pfizer and Innovent Biologics entered a strategic global licensing and collaboration agreement to develop 12 new early-stage and de novo cancer medicines. | -0.1% $25.76 -> $25.73 |
2026-04-20 | Padcev Gains Priority Review Details: The FDA granted Priority Review to the supplemental Biologics License Application for Padcev in combination with Keytruda as a perioperative treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer. | -0.9% $26.65 -> $26.40 |
2026-03-23 | Lyme Vaccine Shows Efficacy Details: Pfizer and partner Valneva announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 VALOR clinical trial for their investigational Lyme disease vaccine candidate. | -0.0% $26.08 -> $26.07 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: PFE trades at roughly 23% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.7x the market), around the 48th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson
Diversified Pharma ScaleJohnson & Johnson offers greater revenue scale, with sales 1.5 times that of Pfizer, and a more diversified business model that includes medical devices, potentially providing more stability.
LLY - Eli Lilly
High-Growth PharmaPfizer is a pharma supertanker navigating a predictable iceberg field of patent cliffs by aggressively acquiring and developing a new fleet of growth-driver speedboats.
Pfizer is in a multi-year transition to replace an anticipated significant reduction in revenue from patent expiries between 2026 and 2030. The strategy hinges on executing large acquisitions (Seagen, Metsera) and advancing a broad internal pipeline, particularly in oncology and obesity. Success is measured by the growth of new and acquired products outpacing the decline of legacy blockbusters, all while managing costs through large-scale productivity programs.
Positive late-stage clinical trial readouts for key pipeline assets (e.g., mevrometostat, berobenatide), stronger-than-expected uptake of new products like Padcev and Nurtec, and successful execution of cost-saving initiatives.
Major clinical trial failures, faster-than-expected generic erosion of key products like Eliquis or Ibrance, or an inability to realize synergies and growth from recent large acquisitions.
Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in COVID-19 product sales, which are now a small and volatile part of the business and are largely de-risked from management's guidance.
Repricing Catalyst
The steady cadence of key clinical data readouts over the next 12 months, including 8 key readouts and 19 pivotal study starts, as highlighted by management in August 2026. A key readout for the EZH2 inhibitor mevrometostat is expected in Q4 2026.
Biopharma
$61.9B TTM (98% of Total)What It Is
The Biopharma segment discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. Its portfolio is organized into commercial divisions for Primary Care (internal medicine, vaccines, COVID-19), Specialty Care (inflammation & immunology, rare disease, anti-infectives), and Oncology. Products are sold to wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies.
Who Pays & How
Wholesalers and government agencies are the primary direct customers. The ultimate payers are governments, private insurers (MCOs, PBMs), and patients, who fund treatments for critical and chronic diseases. They choose Pfizer's products based on clinical efficacy, safety, and formulary access, which is often secured through negotiated rebates.
Competition
Other Business Activities
$1.4B TTM (2% of Total)What It Is
This includes Pfizer CentreOne (PC1), a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) and supplier of specialty active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). It also included Pfizer Ignite, an R&D service for biotech companies, which is being wound down as of 2025.
Who Pays & How
Other pharmaceutical and biotech companies pay for contract manufacturing and development services to support their own product pipelines and supply chains.
Competition
Pfizer — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Pharmaceuticals Resources |
| Fierce Pharma |
| Pharm Exec |
| Endpoints News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.