Tearsheet

PACCAR (PCAR)


Market Price (11/3/2025): $98.4 | Market Cap: $51.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

PACCAR (PCAR)


Market Price (11/3/2025): $98.4
Market Cap: $51.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -37%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.2 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.2 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -37%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PCAR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Performance

PACCAR's third-quarter 2025 financial results presented a mixed picture, which could have contributed to a neutral stock movement. The company reported consolidated net sales and revenues of $6.67 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $6.23 billion. However, its consolidated net income of $590.0 million, or $1.12 per diluted share, slightly missed analysts' consensus estimates of $1.14 per share. This combination of beating revenue expectations while missing on earnings per share could have led to a balanced reaction from investors, preventing significant upward or downward stock price shifts.

2. Offsetting Tariff Impacts

The period saw conflicting signals regarding tariffs that could have balanced each other out. While new Section 232 truck tariffs scheduled to begin in November 2025 were anticipated to bring clarity to the market and potentially reduce costs for PACCAR, existing August steel and aluminum tariff increases negatively impacted the company's third-quarter margins. Additionally, tariffs were cited as a reason for layoffs at PACCAR's Quebec plant, as production moved south of the border, introducing a negative factor that might have been offset by the potential benefits of the upcoming tariffs for U.S.-based manufacturing.

3. Stable yet Challenging Market Conditions

The overall commercial truck market faced headwinds from soft demand and elevated inventory levels, a continuation of a "freight recession" into the third quarter of 2025. Despite this challenging market, PACCAR's parts and financial services divisions demonstrated strong performance, with PACCAR Parts achieving record revenues of $1.72 billion. This resilience in key segments helped balance the broader market weaknesses, contributing to a period of stability in the stock price.

4. Consistent Dividend Payouts

PACCAR's continued declaration of regular quarterly cash dividends signaled financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns. For instance, a dividend of $0.33 per share was payable in September 2025, and another was declared in September for distribution in December 2025. Such consistent payouts often provide a degree of confidence for investors, potentially acting as a stabilizing force on the stock price by reducing selling pressure and attracting income-focused buyers.

5. Strategic Investments Counterbalanced by Litigation Uncertainty

PACCAR continued to invest significantly in long-term strategic initiatives, including next-generation clean diesel and alternative powertrains, advanced manufacturing capabilities, and a battery joint venture. These forward-looking investments, while positive for future growth, were potentially counteracted by ongoing legal challenges. PACCAR, along with other truck manufacturers, was involved in a lawsuit against California in August 2025 regarding heavy-duty emissions requirements, which California subsequently counter-sued. The uncertainty introduced by this litigation could have dampened enthusiasm from strategic investments, contributing to a flat stock performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PCAR Return12%6%17%55%11%-4%127%
Peers Return1%98%-54%7%-9%13%2%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PCAR Win Rate58%50%42%67%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate42%52%37%45%50%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PCAR Max Drawdown-37%-8%-10%-1%-6%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-1%-59%-25%-30%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GM, F, RIVN, OSK, LCID. See PCAR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPCARS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven400 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven376 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-67.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven211.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1817 days1480 days

Compare to GM, F, RIVN, OSK, LCID


In The Past

PACCAR's stock fell -20.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -20.9% loss requires a 26.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PACCAR (PCAR)

Better Bets than PACCAR (PCAR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PCAR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.0%0.0%0.0%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.8%-5.8%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.0%0.0%0.0%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.8%-5.8%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PACCAR

Financials

PCARGMFRIVNOSKLCIDMedian
NamePACCAR General .Ford Mot.Rivian A.Oshkosh Lucid  
Mkt Price98.4069.0913.1313.57123.2917.7543.42
Mkt Cap51.765.252.315.77.95.433.7
Rev LTM29,532187,435189,5885,15110,33292919,932
Op Inc LTM3,3658,0783,619-3,599957-2,9982,161
FCF LTM3,194-1,74911,897-4,493755-3,050-497
FCF 3Y Avg3,005-2,9497,967-4,905316-3,235-1,317
CFO LTM4,71724,21220,426-3,615974-2,2552,846
CFO 3Y Avg4,45022,25216,306-3,806599-2,3292,525

Growth & Margins

PCARGMFRIVNOSKLCIDMedian
NamePACCAR General .Ford Mot.Rivian A.Oshkosh Lucid  
Rev Chg LTM-15.2%2.6%3.7%2.7%-2.5%39.0%2.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.8%8.6%7.8%183.6%9.9%114.2%9.2%
Rev Chg Q-19.0%-0.3%9.4%12.5%-1.9%29.3%4.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.0%-0.1%2.3%2.9%-0.5%6.8%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM11.4%4.3%1.9%-69.9%9.3%-322.8%3.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.4%5.8%2.7%-132.7%9.2%-390.3%4.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%-1.4%0.3%7.2%-0.0%17.7%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM16.0%12.9%10.8%-70.2%9.4%-242.7%10.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.7%12.3%8.9%-101.1%6.0%-301.6%7.4%
FCF/Rev LTM10.8%-0.9%6.3%-87.2%7.3%-328.3%2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%-1.6%4.3%-128.0%3.1%-420.2%0.8%

Valuation

PCARGMFRIVNOSKLCIDMedian
NamePACCAR General .Ford Mot.Rivian A.Oshkosh Lucid  
Mkt Cap51.765.252.315.77.95.433.7
P/S1.80.30.33.00.85.81.3
P/EBIT15.411.78.0-4.98.1-2.48.1
P/E19.221.411.1-4.511.9-2.411.5
P/CFO11.02.72.6-4.38.1-2.42.6
Total Yield9.6%5.7%12.4%-22.4%10.0%-42.3%7.6%
Dividend Yield4.4%1.0%3.4%0.0%1.6%0.0%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.1%-5.8%17.2%-32.4%4.1%-41.3%-0.9%
D/E0.32.03.10.40.20.50.5
Net D/E0.11.62.3-0.10.1-0.00.1

Returns

PCARGMFRIVNOSKLCIDMedian
NamePACCAR General .Ford Mot.Rivian A.Oshkosh Lucid  
1M Rtn0.3%14.9%3.6%-0.6%-6.2%-28.3%-0.1%
3M Rtn2.3%31.9%23.0%9.6%-5.2%-26.7%6.0%
6M Rtn10.2%53.4%31.3%-1.9%39.1%-29.8%20.8%
12M Rtn-0.8%37.0%38.2%33.3%21.6%-19.3%27.4%
3Y Rtn72.8%85.2%25.5%-57.9%50.1%-87.0%37.8%
1M Excs Rtn-2.5%14.5%5.6%-1.6%-6.7%-28.2%-2.1%
3M Excs Rtn-5.6%23.2%11.8%1.3%-17.6%-34.4%-2.2%
6M Excs Rtn-10.1%33.1%11.0%-22.2%18.9%-50.1%0.5%
12M Excs Rtn-21.2%18.2%18.4%12.3%-0.9%-44.5%5.7%
3Y Excs Rtn2.0%9.8%-48.8%-139.2%-25.7%-165.8%-37.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Truck27,25722,00617,37913,16519,990
Parts6,4865,8295,0053,9134,025
Financial Services1,8121,5051,6881,5741,480
Other55649077105
Intersegment-483-584-640  
Total35,12728,82023,52218,72825,600


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Financial Services20,96417,18015,41915,80016,071
Cash and marketable securities8,6596,1594,8134,8345,169
Truck8,0387,2186,9125,9725,609
Parts1,9121,7421,5051,2561,172
Other1,250977860399339
Total40,82333,27629,50928,26028,361


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,406,661
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020252.2%
Average Daily Volume2,247,524
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.08
Basic Shares Quantity525,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/21/20252.4%3.7% 
7/22/20256.1%8.3%7.4%
4/29/2025-1.9%-2.8%2.5%
1/28/2025-2.4%-0.7%-3.2%
10/22/2024-4.4%-2.3%1.0%
7/23/2024-11.0%-9.8%-12.0%
4/30/2024-6.6%-7.5%-7.1%
1/23/20244.0%4.4%12.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101212
# Negative141212
Median Positive3.6%4.4%6.6%
Median Negative-2.3%-2.8%-3.9%
Max Positive8.6%8.3%15.6%
Max Negative-11.0%-9.8%-12.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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