PACCAR (PCAR)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $114.69 | Market Cap: $60.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
PACCAR (PCAR)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $114.69Market Cap: $60.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 5.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil | Key risksPCAR key risks include [1] navigating regulatory uncertainty and increased expenditures from new emissions mandates, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 5.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Key risksPCAR key risks include [1] navigating regulatory uncertainty and increased expenditures from new emissions mandates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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PACCAR (PCAR) stock has gained about 10% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. PACCAR reported strong overall financial results for 2025, with adjusted net income of $2.64 billion ($5.01 per diluted share), marking the fourth best in the company's 120-year history.
Additionally, its PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services segments achieved record annual revenues of $6.87 billion and $2.21 billion, respectively.
2. The company provided an optimistic outlook and guidance for 2026, projecting improved freight conditions and U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck sales to be between 230,000 and 270,000 units.
PACCAR also guided for approximately 33,000 unit deliveries in Q1 2026 and an anticipated 4% to 8% growth in full-year parts sales, indicating expected earnings durability.
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1. PACCAR reported strong overall financial results for 2025, with adjusted net income of $2.64 billion ($5.01 per diluted share), marking the fourth best in the company's 120-year history.
Additionally, its PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services segments achieved record annual revenues of $6.87 billion and $2.21 billion, respectively.
2. The company provided an optimistic outlook and guidance for 2026, projecting improved freight conditions and U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck sales to be between 230,000 and 270,000 units.
PACCAR also guided for approximately 33,000 unit deliveries in Q1 2026 and an anticipated 4% to 8% growth in full-year parts sales, indicating expected earnings durability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.5% change in PCAR stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 103.83 | 114.69 | 10.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,532 | 28,445 | -3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.1% | 8.4% | -8.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 25.4 | 25.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 526 | 526 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 10.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.2% | 49.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.5% | 64.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.9% change in PCAR stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 98.14 | 114.69 | 16.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,100 | 28,445 | -8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.9% | 8.4% | -15.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.8 | 25.4 | 51.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 526 | 526 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 16.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.8% | 39.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.1% | 56.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.7% change in PCAR stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.56 | 114.69 | 9.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,664 | 28,445 | -15.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.4% | 8.4% | -32.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.2 | 25.4 | 92.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 526 | 526 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 9.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.3% | 56.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 22.4% | 65.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 77.5% change in PCAR stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 126.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.63 | 114.69 | 77.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,820 | 28,445 | -1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.4% | 8.4% | -20.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 25.4 | 126.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 523 | 526 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 77.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 77.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.1% | 51.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 70.7% | 64.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PCAR Return | 6% | 17% | 55% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 142% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -7% | 39% | 43% | 29% | 11% | 208% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -2% | 79% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PCAR Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 42% | 55% | 67% | 55% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PCAR Max Drawdown | -8% | -10% | -1% | -6% | -17% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -30% | -11% | -14% | -27% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CAT, CMI, OSK, TSLA, ALSN. See PCAR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PCAR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 400 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 376 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 211.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,817 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CAT, CMI, OSK, TSLA, ALSN
In The Past
PACCAR's stock fell -20.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -20.9% loss requires a 26.4% gain to breakeven.
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About PACCAR (PCAR)
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment also offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment. The company also manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
AI Analysis | Feedback
PACCAR is like a Ford or General Motors, but exclusively focused on designing, manufacturing, and distributing heavy-duty commercial trucks (such as their Kenworth and Peterbilt brands), complete with their own parts and financing services.
Alternatively, think of PACCAR as similar to Caterpillar or John Deere, but instead of construction or agricultural equipment, they specialize in making and supporting the large commercial trucks that transport goods on highways.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Commercial Trucks: PACCAR designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks under brands such as Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF.
- Industrial Winches: The company manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates.
- Aftermarket Truck Parts: PACCAR distributes a comprehensive range of aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles.
- Truck Leasing (PacLease): This service provides full-service leasing operations for commercial trucks to customers.
- Equipment Financing and Loans: PACCAR offers finance and leasing products and services for trucks and related equipment to customers and dealers.
- Dealer Inventory Financing: The company provides financing services to independent dealers for their truck inventory.
AI Analysis | Feedback
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, operating in a Business-to-Business (B2B) model. The provided background information describes the types of customers PACCAR serves, but it does not list specific names of major customer companies.
Based on the description, PACCAR's major customers and channels include:
- Independent dealers: These dealers form the network through which Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF trucks are sold to end-users. PACCAR also provides truck inventory financing services to these independent dealers.
- Commercial trucking companies: This broad category includes small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators. These entities acquire trucks through purchase or lease and are direct recipients of PACCAR's financial and leasing products and services.
- Other businesses: Various other businesses that require commercial trucks and related equipment, and which also utilize PACCAR's financial and leasing services for acquisition.
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Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer
Preston Feight has served as the Chief Executive Officer of PACCAR Inc since July 2019. He was also elected as a member of the Board of Directors on the same date. Mr. Feight has been with PACCAR for over two decades, holding various leadership positions including President of DAF Trucks, Vice President and General Manager of Kenworth Truck Company, Assistant General Manager Sales and Marketing, and Chief Engineer at Kenworth. He holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Northern Arizona University, an M.S. in Engineering Management from the University of Colorado, and an M.B.A. from the University of Michigan.
Brice J. Poplawski, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brice J. Poplawski will assume the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective June 2, 2025, succeeding Harrie Schippers upon his retirement. Mr. Poplawski has been with PACCAR for 27 years, serving as the Company's Vice President and Controller since June 2023. He has held positions of increasing responsibility across various divisions within PACCAR's Controllers organization. He is a Certified Public Accountant and holds a B.S. in Accounting from Central Michigan University and an M.B.A. from the University of Washington.
Mark C. Pigott, Executive Chairman
Mark C. Pigott has been the Executive Chairman of PACCAR Inc since April 2014. Previously, he served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the company from 1997 to 2013. He continues to provide strategic counsel to PACCAR.
Kevin D. Baney, President
Kevin D. Baney will be promoted to President of PACCAR Inc, effective January 1, 2026. With 31 years at the company, Mr. Baney has served as Executive Vice President since January 2025 and held prior roles as Senior Vice President and Vice President and General Manager of Kenworth Truck Company. He is a Professional Engineer and holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and an M.B.A.
John N. Rich, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
John N. Rich will be promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, effective January 1, 2026. He has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer since January 2024. Prior to joining PACCAR, Mr. Rich had a distinguished career of over 30 years at Ford Motor Company, where he held various strategic roles, including Chief Operating Officer for their Autonomous Vehicle subsidiary. He holds a B.S. in Manufacturing Engineering from Boston University, an M.S. in Manufacturing Systems Engineering from the University of Michigan, and an M.B.A. from Harvard University.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to PACCAR's business are:- Exposure to Cyclical Industry and Economic Downturns: PACCAR's performance is highly dependent on the cyclical nature of the commercial trucking industry, which is directly influenced by global and national economic conditions and freight demand. Downturns in the economy can lead to reduced demand for trucks and related services, impacting the company's financial stability and operating cash flow. This cyclicality can result in volatility in truck sales and strain profitability due to high fixed manufacturing costs during periods of reduced demand.
- Technological Transformation (Zero-Emission and Autonomous Vehicles) and Associated Capital Expenditure: The significant industry shift towards zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and autonomous driving technology presents a substantial long-term challenge and requires enormous capital expenditure and research and development (R&D) investments from PACCAR. There is a risk that adoption rates for electric trucks may lag, or that traditional manufacturers like PACCAR may struggle to compete with tech-driven entrants in these new segments. Furthermore, the established, profitable aftermarket parts business could be impacted by electric vehicles having fewer, longer-lasting parts.
- Regulatory Compliance Costs and Trade Tariffs: PACCAR operates in a heavily regulated industry, facing stringent emissions and safety standards. Compliance with evolving regulations, such as the EPA 2027 standards, is expected to add significant costs to new trucks, potentially leading to market distortions like a "post-buy slump" after a period of pre-buying. Additionally, trade policies and tariffs, such as Section 232 tariffs on imported components, introduce layers of cost and supply chain ambiguity, which have already impacted the company's gross margins and manufacturing costs.
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The accelerated transition of the commercial trucking industry towards electric and hydrogen fuel cell powertrains represents a clear emerging threat. While PACCAR is developing its own alternative fuel vehicles, a failure to innovate at a competitive pace, or the emergence of competitors (both traditional and new entrants) with significantly superior and more cost-effective electric or hydrogen truck technology, charging/fueling infrastructure, or disruptive business models, could erode PACCAR's market share in the core truck manufacturing segment. This shift could redefine vehicle performance metrics, total cost of ownership, and regulatory compliance, potentially displacing PACCAR's established diesel truck offerings if the company cannot adapt quickly and effectively.
AI Analysis | Feedback
PACCAR Inc. (symbol: PCAR) operates in several significant addressable markets for its main products and services, including commercial trucks, aftermarket parts, financial services, and industrial winches.
Commercial Trucks
The global commercial truck market is estimated to be valued at USD 85.0 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 167.2 billion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0% over the forecast period. Another source indicates the global commercial vehicles market size was over USD 1.34 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 2.31 trillion by 2035, growing at around 5.6% CAGR during the forecast period of 2026-2035.
Heavy-Duty Trucks (16+ tonne / Class 8)
- Global: The global heavy-duty truck market size reached USD 209.9878 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 328.6789 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.9% from 2022 to 2030. Another estimate places the global heavy-duty trucks market size at USD 230.11 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 467.71 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 8.20% from 2025 to 2034.
- North America: The North American heavy-duty trucks market was valued at USD 75.68 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 117.36 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.80% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2033. North America held 28.69% of the global market share for heavy-duty trucks in 2025 (out of a USD 324.5 billion global market) and is projected to reach USD 121.972 billion by 2033.
- Europe: European truck industry registrations in the 16+ tonne market totaled approximately 343,000 units in 2023 and 316,000 units in 2024. It is estimated that European truck industry registrations in this segment will be in the range of 280,000 - 320,000 trucks in 2026. The heavy-duty truck industry in Europe grew to USD 60.325 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 79.574 billion by 2033.
Medium-Duty Trucks (6-16 tonne / Class 5-7)
- Global: The global medium-duty truck market size was valued at USD 52.23 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 80.16 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 5.5% during the forecast period. Another report estimates the market at USD 55.47 billion in 2024, anticipated to reach USD 95.01 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 5.53% over the next decade.
- North America: North America held the largest revenue share of 36.7% in the medium-duty truck market in 2024. The North America Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck market is projected to reach USD 91.45 billion by 2030.
- Europe: The total EU market for light trucks (6-16 tons) was 39,000 vehicles in 2022. The medium-duty segment market size in Europe was 50,900 units in 2024.
Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs - up to 3.5 metric tons)
- Europe: The European light commercial vehicle market size was valued at USD 114.03 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 227 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 7.95% from 2026 to 2034. Another estimate projects the European light commercial vehicles market size to grow from USD 51.35 billion in 2025 to USD 82.90 billion by 2031 at an 8.31% CAGR over 2026–2031. The European light commercial vehicle market generated a revenue of USD 8,703.5 million in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 145,907.8 million by 2030.
Aftermarket Parts
- Global Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Spare Parts: This market was valued at USD 121.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 165.3 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 2.9% during the forecast period (2025-2035).
- North America: The North American commercial vehicle aftermarket spare parts market is projected to be USD 40 billion in 2024 and rise to USD 52 billion by 2035.
Financial Services
- Global Commercial Vehicle Financing Market: The global commercial vehicle financing market size was valued at USD 109.3 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2024 to 2030. Other estimates for the market size in 2024/2025 include USD 136.97 billion, USD 139.87 billion, and USD 128.63 billion.
- North America: North America is the largest market for commercial vehicle financing, holding approximately 45% of the global market share. The U.S. commercial vehicle financing market size was USD 26.49 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 38.24 billion by 2033.
- Asia Pacific: This region contributed 38.71% of revenue in the commercial vehicle financing market in 2025.
Industrial Winches
- Global: The global winches market was valued at USD 3,446.02 million in 2025 and is projected to surge to nearly USD 5,331.2 million by 2035, driven by a consistent 4.46% expansion throughout the forecast period. Other sources estimate the global industrial winches market at USD 2.1 billion in 2023, projected to grow to USD 3.5 billion by 2032, and USD 1.6256 billion in 2025, expanding at a CAGR of 5.20% from 2025 to 2033.
- North America: North America held more than 40% of the global revenue for winches, with a market size of USD 471.42 million in 2025, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2025 to 2033.
AI Analysis | Feedback
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Regulatory-Driven "Pre-Buy" Demand for Trucks: The upcoming EPA 2027 NOx emissions standards are anticipated to create a significant "pre-buy" surge in demand for current-generation trucks in 2026, and potentially into 2027, as customers aim to acquire vehicles before the introduction of more technologically advanced and potentially more expensive 2027-compliant models. PACCAR is developing two new proprietary engine platforms to meet these stringent standards, which are expected to simultaneously improve emissions, fuel economy, and durability.
- Continued Growth in PACCAR Parts and Financial Services: Both the PACCAR Parts and Financial Services segments are consistent contributors to the company's profitability and revenue. The Parts segment achieved record annual revenues in 2025, with projected sales growth of 4% to 8% in 2026. Similarly, PACCAR Financial Services recorded record annual revenues in 2025 and is expected to maintain its strong performance and expanded market share. These segments are crucial for dampening cyclicality in the truck market.
- Increased Market Share in Key Truck Segments: PACCAR aims to increase its North American heavy-duty truck market share to 35% from 30.3% in 2025. This growth is expected to be supported by the impact of Section 232 tariffs, which favor domestic manufacturing, and the company's flexible production capabilities. The company has also been expanding its presence in the medium-duty truck segment in the U.S. and Canada, as well as in Europe.
- Expansion of Zero-Emission Vehicle Offerings: PACCAR is actively investing in and expanding its portfolio of zero-emission vehicles, including battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks. The company's DAF XD and XF Electric trucks have received industry accolades, and Kenworth and Peterbilt have introduced next-generation battery-electric trucks. With the global electric truck market projected for rapid growth, PACCAR's advancements in these sustainable technologies are expected to drive new product sales.
- Improving Freight Market Conditions and Economic Growth: PACCAR anticipates an acceleration of growth in 2026, fueled by improving freight fundamentals, clearer regulatory and tariff policies, and overall positive economic conditions. The North American Class 8 truck market is forecast to be strong in 2026, with an expectation of increasing demand throughout the year as freight rates improve and carrier profitability returns.
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## Capital Allocation Decisions for PACCAR (PCAR) ### Share Repurchases * PACCAR's Board of Directors authorized a $500 million stock repurchase program in December 2018, effective upon the completion of a then-current $300 million program. Approximately $390 million of this $500 million program remained authorized as of September 30, 2024. * The company aims to provide shareholder value through consistent dividends and stock buybacks, with a history of strategic repurchases to protect investors. ### Share Issuance * PACCAR's shares outstanding have shown slight increases over the last few years, with 0.525 billion in 2023, 0.527 billion in 2024, and 0.527 billion in 2025. * The number of outstanding shares as of March 2026 was reported as 526 million. ### Outbound Investments * In March 2023, PACCAR made a minority equity investment in Platform Science, its connected truck partner. This investment deepens their strategic relationship to integrate Platform Science's Virtual Vehicle technology with the PACCAR Connect telematics system. * PACCAR has a 30% stake in Amplify Cell Technologies, a joint venture for battery cell production. The total project investment for this facility is estimated at $2-3 billion, with operations expected to commence in 2027. ### Capital Expenditures * PACCAR invested $728 million in capital projects in 2025 and anticipates investing between $725 million and $775 million in capital projects in 2026. Capital expenditures rose significantly to $1.75 billion in 2024 from $1.26 billion in 2023. * The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes next-generation clean diesel and alternative powertrains, electric battery cells, integrated connected vehicle services, flexible manufacturing capabilities, and advanced driver assistance systems. * Significant capital projects include the construction of a 2.6 million square foot battery factory by Amplify Cell Technologies in Mississippi and a new $35 million, 50,000 square foot engine remanufacturing facility in Columbus, Mississippi, which is expected to open in the first half of 2026.Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 269.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 67.7 |
| Rev LTM | 31,057 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,416 |
| FCF LTM | 2,708 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,378 |
| CFO LTM | 4,018 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,720 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 67.7 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 18.9 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 17.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 64.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 138.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 42.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 63.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $114.69 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 60.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/09/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $122.35 | $104.05 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -6.3% | 10.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.1% | 28.2% |
| Downside Capture | 69.04 | 89.03 |
| Upside Capture | 100.43 | 89.58 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 48.2% | 59.1% |
PCAR Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.54 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.88 |
| Up Beta | -0.43 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.92 |
| Down Beta | 2.28 | 1.72 | 1.51 | 1.05 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| Up Capture | 53% | 125% | 164% | 98% | 86% | 89% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 28 | 57 | 115 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 6% | 10% | 34% | 41% | 90% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 33 | 67 | 135 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PCAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 16.3% | 28.2% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 25.6% | 19.1% | 1.07 | 66.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.7% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 59.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 62.0% | 26.4% | 1.81 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.3% | 17.3% | 0.85 | 19.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 16.1% | 0.08 | 54.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -12.1% | 44.3% | -0.16 | 28.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PCAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 16.2% | 25.4% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 67.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.0% | 0.57 | 55.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.3% | 1.07 | 3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 18.8% | 0.13 | 42.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 19.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PCAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 16.9% | 26.1% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.9% | 19.8% | 0.62 | 71.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 62.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.7% | 0.75 | -1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 24.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 44.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 12.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/27/2026 | -1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| 10/21/2025 | 2.4% | 3.7% | -0.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | -1.9% | -2.8% | 2.5% |
| 1/28/2025 | -2.4% | -0.7% | -3.2% |
| 10/22/2024 | -4.4% | -2.3% | 1.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | -11.0% | -9.8% | -12.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | -6.6% | -7.5% | -7.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -2.8% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 8.6% | 8.3% | 15.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -9.8% | -12.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poplawski, Brice J | Sr. Vice President & CFO | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 101.15 | 3,369 | 340,785 | 47,340 | Form |
| 2 | Feight, R Preston | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 7302025 | 99.52 | 39,965 | 3,977,333 | 22,211,958 | Form |
| 3 | Poplawski, Brice J | Sr. Vice President & CFO | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 100.94 | 5,000 | 504,689 | 47,239 | Form |
| 4 | Breber, Pierre R | Direct | Buy | 5072025 | 89.78 | 5,000 | 448,900 | 1,168,487 | Form | |
| 5 | Bolgar, Paulo Henrique | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 122.43 | 12,183 | 1,491,524 | 768,105 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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