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(1) Revenues expected to be in line with consensus estimates
Trefis estimates PAYX's FQ1 2022 revenues to be $1.04 Bil, in line with the consensus estimate of $1.04 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2022Q1(E)
Trefis Estimates for Paychex Inc. Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): 11.5%
The chart to the right highlights trends in Paychex Inc.'s Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ1 2022.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to marginally miss consensus estimates
PAYX's FQ1 2022 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $0.78 per Trefis analysis, marginally missing the consensus estimate of $0.8 by 2.5%
Estimated EPS- 2022Q1(E)
Trefis Estimates for Paychex Inc. EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): 32.2%
The chart to the right highlights trends in PAYX's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ1 2022.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate 13% lower than current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $96 for PAYX's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $110.
PAYX Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for Paychex Inc. stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in PAYX stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in PAYX's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating Paychex Inc.'s Total Revenues:
Paychex Inc.'s Revenues have seen a moderate increase of 7.6% from around $3.8 Bil in FY2019 to $4.1 Bil in FY2021 and we expect it to increase to $4.4 Bil in FY2022
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Paychex Inc.'s Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
Comparing Paychex Inc.'s Total Revenues with that of its Peers
Paychex Inc. - Total Revenue
Automatic Data Processing - Total Revenue
#2. Deriving Paychex Inc.'s Net Income:
Paychex Inc.'s Net Income has increased from around $930 Mil in FY2019 to $1.1 Bil in FY2021 and we expect it to increase to $1.2 Bil in FY2022
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Paychex Inc.'s Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Net Income [AxB]
Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining Paychex Inc.'s EPS:
Paychex Inc.'s EPS has increased from $2.58 in FY2019 to $3.05 in FY2021 and we expect it to increase to $3.56 in FY2022
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating Paychex Inc.'s Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $96 For Paychex Inc.'s Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 26.8x P/E Multiple on expected FY2022 EPS of $3.56
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
P/E Multiple [B]
Comparing Paychex Inc.'s Historical P/E Multiple with that of its Peers
Paychex Inc. P/E Multiple
Automatic Data Processing P/E Multiple