Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (12/28/2025): $114.2 | Market Cap: $41.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (12/28/2025): $114.2Market Cap: $41.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Key risksPAYX key risks include [1] its substantial reliance on the U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Key risksPAYX key risks include [1] its substantial reliance on the U.S. Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Paychex (PAYX) experienced a decline of approximately 17.3% between August 31, 2025, and December 28, 2025, driven by several key factors.
<b>1. Disappointing Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue and Market Reaction.</b><br><br>
Despite strong overall revenue growth of 17% year-over-year to $1.54 billion, Paychex's fiscal Q1 2026 revenue, reported on September 30, 2025, fell short of analyst consensus estimates of approximately $1.57 billion. While adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) beat forecasts, the market reacted negatively to the revenue miss, leading to a significant stock sell-off, with shares dropping as much as 7.4% on the day of the announcement. Investors often penalize companies that miss sales expectations, even when profitability is solid.
<b>2. Rising Expenses and GAAP Operating Margin Contraction.</b><br><br>
Total expenses for Paychex increased by 29% in Q1 fiscal year 2026, largely due to costs associated with the integration of the Paycor acquisition, which was completed in April 2025. This led to a contraction in the GAAP operating margin, which fell from 41.5% in the prior year period to 35.2%. Even though adjusted operating income grew, the substantial increase in expenses, particularly $84.1 million in Paycor acquisition-related costs, raised concerns among investors about the quality of the earnings beat and put pressure on overall profitability.
<b>3. Cautious Outlook and Analyst Downgrades.</b><br><br>
Following the Q1 FY2026 earnings, Paychex provided an updated business outlook for fiscal 2026, anticipating adjusted diluted EPS growth in the range of 9% to 11%. While this guidance was an increase from previous forecasts, some analysts viewed it with caution, particularly concerning the sustainability of revenue per client in a changing economic landscape. Several Wall Street firms subsequently lowered their price targets for Paychex, with BMO Capital reducing its target to $143 on labor concerns and Jefferies lowering its target to $118 from $130 due to concerns about the growth trajectory implied by the company's fiscal year 2026 guidance. This reflected a reinforcing downtrend in analyst sentiment throughout late 2025.
<b>4. Weakened Labor Market and Economic Headwinds.</b><br><br>
The broader economic environment, characterized by a softening labor market and concerns about a potential recession in 2025, impacted companies like Paychex. Reports indicated an ongoing hiring slowdown, an uptick in unemployment, and businesses delaying hiring plans to cut costs. While Paychex showed resilience and continued growth in some areas, the overall cautious sentiment in the labor market, with customers being more cost-conscious and seeking smaller deal sizes, contributed to investor anxiety.
<b>5. Mixed Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Results and Lingering Integration Concerns.</b><br><br>
Paychex reported its Q2 fiscal year 2026 results on December 19, 2025, which presented a mixed picture. While adjusted earnings per share beat expectations and revenue grew 18% year-over-year, the stock still saw a decline of 1.72% on the day of the announcement. Concerns persisted regarding the underlying organic growth being "muted" and the ongoing integration expenses from the Paycor acquisition compressing GAAP margins. Wells Fargo, for example, maintained an "Underweight" rating, citing weaker-than-anticipated growth in Paycor and decreased forecasts for fiscal 2026 in certain segments, further highlighting investor wariness about the acquisition's long-term impact and potential structural challenges related to AI.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.1% change in PAYX stock from 9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a -11.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 9272025 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 126.98 | 114.19 | -10.07% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5571.70 | 6033.90 | 8.30% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.74% | 26.45% | -11.09% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.62 | 25.72 | -6.89% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360.50 | 359.40 | 0.31% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.08% |
Market Drivers
9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAYX | -10.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 7.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.0% | 18.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.3% change in PAYX stock from 6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a -17.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 6282025 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 141.49 | 114.19 | -19.29% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5439.50 | 6033.90 | 10.93% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.99% | 26.45% | -17.33% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.28 | 25.72 | -12.17% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360.10 | 359.40 | 0.19% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.29% |
Market Drivers
6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAYX | -19.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 21.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.5% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.6% change in PAYX stock from 12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a -17.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12272024 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 136.97 | 114.19 | -16.63% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5369.80 | 6033.90 | 12.37% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.02% | 26.45% | -17.40% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.68 | 25.72 | -10.33% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360.00 | 359.40 | 0.17% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.63% |
Market Drivers
12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAYX | -16.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 44.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.2% | 52.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.3% change in PAYX stock from 12/28/2022 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 25.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12282022 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.49 | 114.19 | 9.28% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4816.80 | 6033.90 | 25.27% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.45% | 26.45% | -13.14% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.68 | 25.72 | 0.13% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360.50 | 359.40 | 0.31% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.28% |
Market Drivers
12/28/2023 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAYX | 1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.0% | 42.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 41.2% | 52.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAYX Return | 13% | 50% | -13% | 6% | 21% | -16% | 60% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAYX Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAYX Max Drawdown | -40% | -7% | -19% | -8% | -2% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL. See PAYX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAYX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 537 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,062 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
Paychex's stock fell -25.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -25.4% loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Paychex:
- QuickBooks for small business HR and payroll.
- Stripe for small business payroll and HR.
- H&R Block for business payroll and HR compliance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Payroll Processing: Automates the calculation, payment, and tax filing for employee wages and salaries.
- Human Resources (HR) Administration: Provides a suite of services for managing employee lifecycles, from onboarding to performance management and compliance.
- Employee Benefits Administration: Manages the enrollment, administration, and compliance of various employee benefits, including health insurance and flexible spending accounts.
- Time and Attendance Tracking: Offers solutions for recording employee work hours, managing schedules, and ensuring accurate payroll input.
- Retirement Plan Services: Administers 401(k) and other retirement plans, including recordkeeping, compliance, and investment options.
- Business Insurance Services: Provides brokerage and administration for workers' compensation, general liability, and other business insurance policies.
- Professional Employer Organization (PEO) Services: A co-employment model where Paychex assumes comprehensive responsibility for payroll, HR, benefits, and compliance for client employees.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Paychex (symbol: PAYX) primarily sells its services to other companies, making it a business-to-business (B2B) provider.
Paychex's business model focuses on serving a vast number of small to mid-sized businesses rather than a few large enterprise clients. As such, the company does not publicly disclose specific "major customer companies" with names and stock symbols. Instead, its customer base can be broadly categorized by the size and complexity of the businesses it serves:
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Small Businesses: These represent a significant portion of Paychex's customer base. Typically, these are businesses with a smaller number of employees (e.g., 1-49) that require essential services such as payroll processing, basic human resources support, tax administration, and simple benefits management. Paychex provides solutions tailored to help these businesses manage their workforce efficiently and comply with employment regulations without needing extensive in-house HR departments.
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Mid-Market Businesses: This category includes businesses that have grown beyond the small business stage, often ranging from 50 to several hundred employees. These companies typically require more comprehensive and integrated Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, encompassing advanced HR functionalities, robust payroll services, time and attendance tracking, employee benefits administration (including retirement plans and health insurance), and compliance support for more complex regulatory environments. Paychex offers scalable solutions to meet the evolving needs of these growing enterprises.
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John B. Gibson, Jr., President and Chief Executive Officer
John B. Gibson, Jr. assumed the role of president and chief executive officer of Paychex in October 2022. He initially joined Paychex in 2013 as senior vice president of service, overseeing the operations of various business divisions including human resource services, payroll, retirement, and insurance services. In 2021, he was promoted to president and chief operating officer. Before his tenure at Paychex, Gibson held senior executive positions at other HR outsourcing and technology companies, such as Ameritech (now AT&T) and Convergys.
Robert L. Schrader, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Robert L. Schrader was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Paychex in October 2023. Prior to this role, he served as Paychex's Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Schrader joined Paychex in December 2014 as the director of Internal Audit. His experience before Paychex includes serving as Chief Financial Officer for Unither Manufacturing, LLC. Before Unither, he spent 10 years at Bausch & Lomb, Inc., where his roles included vice president of Finance and controller of Global Quality and Operations. He is a certified public accountant and holds an MBA from the University of Rochester's Simon Business School.
Prabha Sipi Bhandari, Chief Legal Officer, Chief Ethics Officer, and Secretary
Prabha Sipi Bhandari has served as the Chief Legal Officer, Chief Ethics Officer, and Secretary of Paychex since May 2024. Before joining Paychex, she held the position of Senior Vice President, Deputy General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary at AIG.
Mason Argiropoulos, Chief Human Resources Officer
Mason Argiropoulos holds the title of Chief Human Resources Officer at Paychex.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Paychex (symbol: PAYX) faces several key risks to its business operations and future growth:- Competitive Pressure: The Human Capital Management (HCM) industry is highly competitive, with numerous companies offering similar payroll and HR services. Paychex must continuously innovate and differentiate its offerings to maintain its market position and prevent client attrition. This intense competition requires ongoing investment in technology and customer service to retain existing clients and attract new ones.
- Regulatory Changes and Compliance Costs: Paychex operates within a complex and ever-evolving regulatory landscape. The company, as a provider of payroll and HR services, must navigate continuous changes in laws and regulations at federal, state, and local levels, including those related to AI, data privacy, cybersecurity, wage and hour laws, and retirement. Compliance with these evolving regulations incurs significant costs and necessitates continuous monitoring and adaptation, which can impact profit margins.
- Macroeconomic Factors and Dependence on the U.S. Market: Economic trends, such as inflation, interest rate changes, and broader market uncertainties, can impact Paychex's business operations and its clients' investment decisions. Furthermore, Paychex's substantial reliance on the U.S. market could expose the company to domestic economic fluctuations, potentially affecting its growth and profitability.
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```htmlThe rapid emergence and adoption of highly integrated, all-in-one Human Capital Management (HCM) platforms presents a clear emerging threat. Companies like Rippling, Gusto, and others are building comprehensive systems that consolidate payroll, HR, benefits, IT (e.g., device management, app provisioning), and other employee-related functions into a single, seamless platform from a unified data model. This approach often provides a superior user experience, streamlines workflows, and reduces administrative overhead compared to traditional models where these services might be provided through separate modules or integrations.
These newer platforms appeal particularly to tech-savvy small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and startups by offering a modern, intuitive interface and a "single source of truth" for all employee data. This directly challenges Paychex's market position, especially as these new entrants gain scale and expand their offerings, by demonstrating a fundamentally different, and often more efficient, way for businesses to manage their human capital, thereby eroding Paychex's potential for new customer acquisition and retention in key growth segments.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlPaychex (symbol: PAYX) offers a range of human capital management (HCM) solutions, including payroll, human resources (HR), and employee benefits outsourcing services, primarily for small to medium-sized businesses. The addressable markets for their main products and services are sized as follows:
-
Payroll Services:
- The United States payroll services market is estimated at USD 8.44 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 11.06 billion by 2030.
- The broader Payroll & Bookkeeping Services industry in the United States is valued at USD 82.1 billion in 2025.
- For North America, the overall payroll service market was valued at USD 12.0 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 20.0 billion by 2032.
- In Europe, the payroll service market was valued at USD 10.0 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 17.0 billion by 2032.
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Human Resources (HR) Software and Management:
- The United States HR & Payroll Software market was USD 16.0 billion in 2025. Another estimate for the U.S. HR & Payroll Software market was USD 20.9 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 29.2 billion by 2032.
- The United States Human Resources Management Software market was valued at USD 7.37 billion in 2024.
- Globally, the Human Resources Management Software market was valued at USD 18.43 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 56.23 billion by 2034.
- The North America HR software market was valued at USD 14.08 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 22.52 billion by 2032.
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Employee Benefits Administration:
- The Human Resources & Benefits Administration market in the U.S. is estimated at USD 88.9 billion in 2025.
- The global Benefits Administration Service market is estimated to be valued at US$ 934.7 million in 2025, with North America leading with a 41.2% share.
- The global Employee Benefits Administration Software market was valued at USD 914.31 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1575.67 million by 2031.
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Professional Employer Organization (PEO) Services:
- The Professional Employer Organizations industry in the United States is projected to be USD 196.7 billion in 2025.
- The global PEO market was valued at USD 73.58 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 170.8 billion by 2033.
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Overall Small and Mid-Sized Business (SMB) Human Capital Management (HCM) Market:
- The estimated addressable market for the U.S. small and mid-sized business (SMB) segment, which includes payroll, insurance, and HR services, is valued at over USD 90 billion.
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Paychex (PAYX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market dynamics:
- Paycor Acquisition and Integration: The recent acquisition of Paycor is a significant driver, contributing substantially to overall revenue growth and expanding the client base, particularly in the mid-market and enterprise segments. The integration is expected to generate revenue synergies through cross-selling opportunities across the combined client base. Specifically, the Paycor acquisition is projected to contribute 12-13 percentage points to the fiscal year 2026 total revenue growth of 16.5%-18.5%.
- Growth in Management Solutions: The Management Solutions segment continues to be a robust performer, with strong demand across core business lines. This segment is anticipated to sustain high growth rates. For fiscal year 2026, Management Solutions revenue is expected to grow between 20% and 22%.
- Growth in PEO and Insurance Solutions: This segment is a steady contributor to revenue, primarily driven by an increase in average worksite employees and insurance revenues. The PEO and Insurance Solutions segment is forecasted to grow by 6% to 8% in fiscal year 2026.
- Product Innovation and AI-driven Human Capital Management (HCM) Solutions: Paychex's ongoing investments in technology, product innovation, data, and AI are crucial for enhancing its comprehensive suite of HCM solutions and improving the client experience. These investments are vital for maintaining competitiveness and driving the adoption of new offerings in a digitally and AI-driven market.
- Interest on Funds Held for Clients: Revenue from interest on funds held for clients is expected to continue growing, benefiting from higher average interest rates and increased invested balances. This revenue stream is projected to be between $190 million and $200 million for fiscal year 2026, partly due to the inclusion of client fund balances from the Paycor acquisition.
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Share Repurchases
- Paychex authorized a new stock repurchase program of up to $400 million of its common stock, effective February 1, 2024, with an expiration date of May 31, 2027.
- An earlier authorization for $400 million, set to expire on January 31, 2024, had an unused repurchase authorization of $157.9 million which expired.
- During fiscal year 2025, Paychex repurchased 0.8 million shares of its common stock at a weighted-average price of $125.50.
Share Issuance
- Activity related to equity-based plans resulted in a net effect of 5.2 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2024.
- For the fiscal year ended May 31, 2023, activity related to equity-based plans totaled 48.2 million.
- Restricted stock awards (RSAs) have been granted to executives and outside directors, with recipients earning dividends that are paid upon vesting.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2025, Paychex announced a definitive agreement to acquire Paycor HCM, Inc. for approximately $4.1 billion in an all-cash transaction, aiming to enhance its upmarket capabilities and AI-driven HR technology.
- Effective July 31, 2023, Paychex acquired substantially all the net assets of Alterna Capital Solutions LLC, diversifying its portfolio of solutions.
- The acquisition of Paycor in fiscal year 2025 significantly increased Paychex's borrowings, though the company expects its cash flow to cover this and other capital allocation decisions.
Capital Expenditures
- Paychex's capital expenditures have shown an upward trend, reaching $148.8 million in fiscal year 2024, following $133.8 million in fiscal year 2023, and $124.7 million in fiscal year 2022.
- The average capital expenditures for fiscal years 2020 to 2024 were $123.7 million, with the latest twelve months seeing capital expenditures of $166.4 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on continuous investment in technology and digital capabilities to enhance its Paychex Flex platform, improve customer and employee experiences, and leverage artificial intelligence and advanced analytics.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to PAYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.3% | 18.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.5% | 5.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.7% | 5.7% | -0.4% |
| 11072025 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -3.1% |
| 12312022 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.7% | 6.2% | -8.2% |
| 03312020 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.2% | 61.0% | -5.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Paychex
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 96.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 163.0 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,697 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $114.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 41.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -27.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $114.96 | $134.57 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.7% | -15.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.2% | 24.2% |
| Downside Capture | 11.87 | 55.95 |
| Upside Capture | -41.47 | 29.09 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 8.4% | 44.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.42 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| Up Beta | 0.24 | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.26 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | 0.14 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| Up Capture | 14% | -53% | -48% | -16% | 20% | 26% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 23 | 55 | 118 | 388 |
| Down Capture | 72% | 24% | 63% | 94% | 71% | 90% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 24 | 39 | 70 | 130 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of PAYX With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -15.6% | 19.3% | 17.8% | 72.1% | 8.6% | 4.4% | -8.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 24.1% | 18.8% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.75 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 52.9% | 44.6% | 2.8% | 9.1% | 63.8% | 7.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of PAYX With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 6.6% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 30.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 22.8% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.6% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.25 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 62.5% | 61.1% | 7.2% | 13.5% | 59.3% | 22.7% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of PAYX With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 11.2% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 24.7% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.45 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 70.2% | 71.2% | 3.9% | 21.2% | 64.4% | 16.1% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/19/2025 | -1.7% | -0.0% | |
| 9/30/2025 | -1.4% | -3.2% | -3.5% |
| 6/25/2025 | -9.4% | -3.2% | -2.1% |
| 3/26/2025 | 4.2% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| 12/19/2024 | 1.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% |
| 10/1/2024 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -6.1% | -5.3% | -0.8% |
| 4/2/2024 | 0.4% | 1.8% | -2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.5% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.4% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -7.9% | -10.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | 12222025 | 10-Q 11/30/2025 |
| 8312025 | 9302025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7112025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3262025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12192024 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10012024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7112024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4022024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12212023 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9282023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7142023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3302023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12222022 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9292022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7152022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3312022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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