Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (10/17/2025): $126.515 | Market Cap: $45.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (10/17/2025): $126.515Market Cap: $45.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.2% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
PAYX Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
PAYX Return | 13% | 50% | -13% | 6% | 21% | -8% | 74% |
Peers Return | 40% | -13% | -24% | 44% | -7% | 24% | 54% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
PAYX Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 44% | |
Peers Win Rate | 67% | 54% | 48% | 60% | 48% | 58% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
PAYX Max Drawdown | -40% | -7% | -19% | -8% | -2% | -10% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -36% | -34% | -7% | -23% | -12% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG. See PAYX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/16/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | PAYX | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -25.4% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 537 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -18.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -55.9% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 126.7% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 2062 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Paychex's stock fell -25.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -25.4% loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PAYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.7% | -4.7% | -7.3% |
08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.8% | -7.8% | -8.5% |
08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.8% | -2.8% | -5.6% |
08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.0% | 29.0% | -1.2% |
12312022 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.7% | 6.2% | -8.2% |
03312020 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.2% | 61.0% | -5.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.7% | -4.7% | -7.3% |
08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.8% | -7.8% | -8.5% |
08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.8% | -2.8% | -5.6% |
08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.0% | 29.0% | -1.2% |
12312022 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.7% | 6.2% | -8.2% |
03312020 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.2% | 61.0% | -5.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Paychex
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 126.49 |
Mkt Cap | 26.5 |
Rev LTM | 9,486 |
Op Inc LTM | 2,208 |
FCF LTM | 1,709 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 1,670 |
CFO LTM | 1,901 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 1,835 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
Op Mgn LTM | 26.3% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.7% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 24.0% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.0% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 21.4% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 26.5 |
P/S | 3.8 |
P/EBIT | 19.7 |
P/E | 27.5 |
P/CFO | 22.6 |
Total Yield | 5.7% |
Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -3.9% |
3M Rtn | -4.2% |
6M Rtn | -3.3% |
12M Rtn | -1.6% |
3Y Rtn | 28.2% |
1M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
3M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | -28.7% |
12M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -52.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
9/30/2025 | -1.4% | -3.2% | |
6/25/2025 | -9.4% | -3.2% | -2.1% |
3/26/2025 | 4.2% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
12/19/2024 | 1.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% |
10/1/2024 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% |
6/26/2024 | -6.1% | -5.3% | -0.8% |
4/2/2024 | 0.4% | 1.8% | -2.3% |
12/21/2023 | -7.0% | -6.5% | -3.9% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 12 | 15 | 13 |
# Negative | 12 | 9 | 11 |
Median Positive | 3.5% | 2.7% | 6.6% |
Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.5% | -2.2% |
Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.4% | 14.4% |
Max Negative | -9.4% | -7.9% | -10.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
8312025 | 9302025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
5312025 | 7112025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
2282025 | 3262025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
11302024 | 12192024 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
8312024 | 10012024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
5312024 | 7112024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
2292024 | 4022024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
11302023 | 12212023 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
8312023 | 9282023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
5312023 | 7142023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
2282023 | 3302023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
11302022 | 12222022 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
8312022 | 9292022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
5312022 | 7152022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
2282022 | 3312022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
11302021 | 12222021 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
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