Tearsheet

Paychex (PAYX)


Market Price (10/17/2025): $126.515 | Market Cap: $45.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Paychex (PAYX)


Market Price (10/17/2025): $126.515
Market Cap: $45.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Investment Highlights


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PAYX Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PAYX Return13%50%-13%6%21%-8%74%
Peers Return40%-13%-24%44%-7%24%54%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PAYX Win Rate75%67%42%42%75%44% 
Peers Win Rate67%54%48%60%48%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PAYX Max Drawdown-40%-7%-19%-8%-2%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-36%-34%-7%-23%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG. See PAYX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/16/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventPAYXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven537 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven231 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven51 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-55.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2062 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Paychex's stock fell -25.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -25.4% loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than Paychex (PAYX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PAYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FCN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025FCNFTI ConsultingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-6.2%
ODFL_9122025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09122025ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.7%-4.7%-7.3%
EFX_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025EFXEquifaxMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.8%-7.8%-8.5%
UHAL_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025UHALU-HaulMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-2.8%-2.8%-5.6%
BWXT_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025BWXTBWX TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.0%29.0%-1.2%
PAYX_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.7%6.2%-8.2%
PAYX_3312020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312020PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.2%61.0%-5.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FCN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025FCNFTI ConsultingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-6.2%
ODFL_9122025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09122025ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.7%-4.7%-7.3%
EFX_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025EFXEquifaxMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.8%-7.8%-8.5%
UHAL_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025UHALU-HaulMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-2.8%-2.8%-5.6%
BWXT_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025BWXTBWX TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.0%29.0%-1.2%
PAYX_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.7%6.2%-8.2%
PAYX_3312020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312020PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.2%61.0%-5.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Paychex

Financials

PAYXADPBRGPNSTNEELCGMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Broadrid.Global P.StoneCo ELC  
Mkt Price126.49280.16226.3883.6617.66-126.49
Mkt Cap45.6113.726.520.44.8-26.5
Rev LTM5,57220,5616,8899,48613,471-9,486
Op Inc LTM2,2085,4121,1891,9296,653-2,208
FCF LTM1,7094,3931,0562,937-647-1,709
FCF 3Y Avg1,6703,8749162,099-1,380-1,670
CFO LTM1,9014,9401,1713,567580-1,901
CFO 3Y Avg1,8354,4351,0172,733-263-1,835

Growth & Margins

PAYXADPBRGPNSTNEELCGMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Broadrid.Global P.StoneCo ELC  
Rev Chg LTM5.6%7.1%5.9%2.0%14.2%-5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.5%7.6%6.5%2.4%23.3%-6.5%
Rev Chg Q10.2%7.5%6.2%-0.7%17.5%-7.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%1.8%1.8%-0.2%3.8%-1.8%
Op Mgn LTM39.6%26.3%17.3%20.3%49.4%-26.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg40.5%25.7%16.1%19.8%48.0%-25.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.9%0.1%0.5%-0.5%-0.0%--0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM34.1%24.0%17.0%37.6%4.3%-24.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg34.7%23.0%15.6%29.2%-1.5%-23.0%
FCF/Rev LTM30.7%21.4%15.3%31.0%-4.8%-21.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg31.6%20.1%14.1%22.4%-11.0%-20.1%

Valuation

PAYXADPBRGPNSTNEELCGMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Broadrid.Global P.StoneCo ELC  
Mkt Cap45.6113.726.520.44.8-26.5
P/S8.25.53.82.10.4-3.8
P/EBIT20.019.722.28.67.7-19.7
P/E27.527.931.614.2-3.8-27.5
P/CFO24.023.022.65.78.2-22.6
Total Yield6.8%5.7%4.7%8.2%-26.6%-5.7%
Dividend Yield3.2%2.1%1.5%1.2%0.0%-1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.7%3.7%3.9%9.5%-37.3%-3.7%
D/E0.10.10.10.82.9-0.1
Net D/E0.10.00.10.71.5-0.1

Returns

PAYXADPBRGPNSTNEELCGMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Broadrid.Global P.StoneCo ELC  
1M Rtn-3.9%-3.0%-7.8%-0.7%-6.2%--3.9%
3M Rtn-11.7%-6.8%-4.2%1.0%18.4%--4.2%
6M Rtn-11.4%-3.5%-3.3%21.2%44.0%--3.3%
12M Rtn-8.6%-1.6%4.8%-16.9%61.7%--1.6%
3Y Rtn23.4%28.2%66.8%-23.7%65.2%-28.2%
1M Excs Rtn-4.9%-3.4%-8.1%-2.4%-7.6%--4.9%
3M Excs Rtn-17.1%-12.0%-10.2%-2.9%23.9%--10.2%
6M Excs Rtn-37.5%-29.4%-28.7%-25.6%23.6%--28.7%
12M Excs Rtn-21.8%-14.8%-9.4%-30.7%44.1%--14.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-57.2%-52.6%-17.5%-104.8%-18.3%--52.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment5,2785,0074,6124,0574,040
Total5,2785,0074,6124,0574,040


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment1,690    
Total1,690    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,593,071
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-4.3%
Average Daily Volume4,346,068
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.90
Basic Shares Quantity360,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/30/2025-1.4%-3.2% 
6/25/2025-9.4%-3.2%-2.1%
3/26/20254.2%7.3%0.1%
12/19/20241.4%5.0%6.6%
10/1/20244.9%2.4%5.7%
6/26/2024-6.1%-5.3%-0.8%
4/2/20240.4%1.8%-2.3%
12/21/2023-7.0%-6.5%-3.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121513
# Negative12911
Median Positive3.5%2.7%6.6%
Median Negative-3.3%-4.5%-2.2%
Max Positive6.5%9.4%14.4%
Max Negative-9.4%-7.9%-10.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025930202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025711202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025326202510-Q 2/28/2025
113020241219202410-Q 11/30/2024
83120241001202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024711202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024402202410-Q 2/29/2024
113020231221202310-Q 11/30/2023
8312023928202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023714202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023330202310-Q 2/28/2023
113020221222202210-Q 11/30/2022
8312022929202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022715202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022331202210-Q 2/28/2022
113020211222202110-Q 11/30/2021

Insider Activity

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