Tearsheet

Penske Automotive (PAG)


Market Price (10/21/2025): $169.505 | Market Cap: $11.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Penske Automotive (PAG)


Market Price (10/21/2025): $169.505
Market Cap: $11.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 5.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.8%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 5.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.8%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PAG Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PAG Return20%84%9%42%-3%14%282%
Peers Return31%101%-26%26%-13%-4%106%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PAG Win Rate67%75%50%67%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate70%62%40%52%45%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PAG Max Drawdown-57%-3%-14%-1%-9%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-62%-5%-38%-7%-32%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LAD, KMX, CAR, ABG, CRMT. See PAG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/20/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventPAGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven25 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven197 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-28.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1148 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven404.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1072 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Penske Automotive's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than Penske Automotive (PAG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PAG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-22.1%-22.1%-22.1%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.2%-1.2%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-4.2%-4.2%-11.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-22.1%-22.1%-22.1%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.2%-1.2%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-4.2%-4.2%-11.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Penske Automotive

Financials

PAGLADKMXCARABGCRMTMedian
NamePenske A.Lithia M.CarMax Avis Bud.Asbury A.America'. 
Mkt Price169.45309.2243.03149.11245.8726.86159.28
Mkt Cap11.38.16.45.24.80.25.8
Rev LTM30,61236,80526,36811,20617,1361,38421,752
Op Inc LTM1,3051,547-234-22997186529
FCF LTM664114685-6,199483-43298
FCF 3Y Avg863-418517-8,596312-77118
CFO LTM1,0064551,2083,548719-40863
CFO 3Y Avg1,212-1219913,841499-68745

Growth & Margins

PAGLADKMXCARABGCRMTMedian
NamePenske A.Lithia M.CarMax Avis Bud.Asbury A.America'. 
Rev Chg LTM3.3%12.8%1.8%-9.4%11.1%0.9%2.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.6%13.5%-7.4%1.4%14.6%3.7%4.1%
Rev Chg Q2.1%7.2%-6.0%-16.6%-1.3%-1.9%-1.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.5%1.7%-1.6%-3.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.4%
Op Mgn LTM4.3%4.2%-0.9%-2.0%5.7%6.2%4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.7%5.1%-1.0%13.1%6.9%4.0%4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.1%-0.3%-4.4%-0.1%-0.5%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM3.3%1.2%4.6%31.7%4.2%-2.9%3.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.1%-0.5%3.8%31.4%3.1%-4.8%3.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.2%0.3%2.6%-55.3%2.8%-3.1%1.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.9%-1.4%2.0%-70.1%1.9%-5.4%0.2%

Valuation

PAGLADKMXCARABGCRMTMedian
NamePenske A.Lithia M.CarMax Avis Bud.Asbury A.America'. 
Mkt Cap11.38.16.45.24.80.25.8
P/S0.40.20.20.50.30.20.3
P/EBIT7.34.34.1-1.95.92.64.2
P/E11.99.612.3-2.411.616.911.8
P/CFO11.217.95.31.56.7-5.66.0
Total Yield10.3%11.1%8.1%-42.1%8.6%5.9%8.4%
Dividend Yield1.9%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.9%-5.4%4.7%-170.5%6.4%-14.5%-0.3%
D/E0.71.73.05.01.03.82.3
Net D/E0.71.72.94.91.03.82.3

Returns

PAGLADKMXCARABGCRMTMedian
NamePenske A.Lithia M.CarMax Avis Bud.Asbury A.America'. 
1M Rtn-3.8%-7.0%-26.4%-5.4%1.9%-18.0%-6.2%
3M Rtn2.6%-0.1%-30.0%-21.6%6.1%-50.4%-10.8%
6M Rtn14.0%9.4%-31.0%84.9%13.6%-42.1%11.5%
12M Rtn11.0%-0.8%-42.4%84.0%4.8%-37.2%2.0%
3Y Rtn86.9%70.6%-22.7%-17.1%71.8%-56.8%26.7%
1M Excs Rtn-4.8%-8.0%-27.4%-6.5%0.9%-19.1%-7.3%
3M Excs Rtn-6.9%-8.2%-39.0%-32.1%-1.6%-58.4%-20.2%
6M Excs Rtn-16.6%-21.2%-61.5%54.3%-17.0%-72.7%-19.1%
12M Excs Rtn-4.7%-15.8%-57.8%66.3%-10.6%-55.7%-13.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-6.8%-39.6%-114.6%-97.0%-28.8%-139.8%-68.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Retail Automotive25,20923,69522,51317,92920,616
Retail Commercial Truck3,6843,5412,4662,0612,050
Other634579576454513
Non-Automotive Investments000  
Total29,52727,81525,55520,44423,179


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,552,406
Short Interest: % Change Since 915202513.2%
Average Daily Volume249,714
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.22
Basic Shares Quantity66,772,412
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/20250.4%6.8%12.9%
4/30/2025-0.0%-0.4%6.3%
2/13/2025-0.8%-7.0%-14.3%
10/29/2024-1.7%-2.5%8.4%
7/31/2024-1.6%-8.5%-2.0%
4/30/2024-0.6%0.2%-1.0%
2/7/2024-0.2%2.1%3.3%
10/25/20232.2%3.8%8.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101417
# Negative14107
Median Positive2.0%5.4%8.4%
Median Negative-1.3%-3.3%-3.2%
Max Positive8.1%15.8%31.7%
Max Negative-6.6%-8.5%-14.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211028202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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