Penske Automotive (PAG)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $145.9 | Market Cap: $9.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Penske Automotive (PAG)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $145.9Market Cap: $9.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 6.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 90% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.1% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Key risksPAG key risks include [1] increased vehicle inventory borrowing costs due to higher interest rates and [2] operational disruptions from cybersecurity incidents impacting its profits and dealer management systems. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 6.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 90% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.1% |
| Key risksPAG key risks include [1] increased vehicle inventory borrowing costs due to higher interest rates and [2] operational disruptions from cybersecurity incidents impacting its profits and dealer management systems. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Penske Automotive Group reported weaker-than-expected adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly missing analyst consensus estimates. The company announced its Q4 2025 results on February 11, 2026, with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.91, falling short of the consensus estimate of $3.19 by $0.28, an 8.49% miss. This represented a 17.8% decrease in adjusted earnings year-over-year. Although quarterly revenue of $7.77 billion exceeded analyst expectations, the gross profit declined by 5.3% year-over-year to $1.24 billion, and operating income saw a 20.8% decrease to $275 million.
2. The company experienced weakening profitability and margin pressures due to rising costs, tariffs, and a low gross margin environment. Penske's EPS declined by 10.5% annually over the last three years, even as revenue grew by 3.4%, indicating a reduction in per-share profitability. The company's overall profitability metrics, including net income and EBITDA, were negatively impacted by increasing costs and margin compression, with management citing tariffs as a contributing factor. Penske Automotive Group's average gross margin of 16.5% over the last two years suggests a highly competitive market and limited pricing power. Furthermore, a 25% tariff exposure on German OEMs and truck-related Section 232 impacts were identified as potential pressures on volumes, pricing, and affordability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.0% change in PAG stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 160.32 | 145.93 | -9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,092 | 31,808 | -0.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.1% | 2.9% | -5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.7 | 10.3 | -3.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 66 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAG | -9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 29.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.2% | 30.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.5% change in PAG stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 181.24 | 145.93 | -19.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,987 | 31,808 | -0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.1% | 2.9% | -6.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.9 | 10.3 | -13.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 66 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAG | -19.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 28.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.2% | 32.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.7% change in PAG stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 163.35 | 145.93 | -10.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,865 | 31,808 | -0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.0% | 2.9% | -3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.3 | 10.3 | -8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 66 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAG | -10.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 48.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.4% | 55.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.7% change in PAG stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 50.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.08 | 145.93 | 9.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,815 | 31,808 | 14.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.0% | 2.9% | -40.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.8 | 10.3 | 50.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 66 | 7.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAG | 9.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 56.0% | 50.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAG Return | 84% | 9% | 42% | -3% | 7% | -4% | 187% |
| Peers Return | 101% | -26% | 26% | -13% | -11% | -14% | 26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAG Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 40% | 52% | 45% | 40% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAG Max Drawdown | -3% | -14% | -1% | -9% | -7% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -38% | -7% | -32% | -39% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LAD, KMX, ABG, CAR, CRMT. See PAG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,148 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 404.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,072 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LAD, KMX, ABG, CAR, CRMT
In The Past
Penske Automotive's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Penske Automotive (PAG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Penske Automotive:
- It's like a Best Buy for cars and trucks, selling and servicing vehicles from numerous different manufacturers.
- Think of it like a Marriott or Hilton hotel chain, but instead of operating hotels, they operate a vast global network of franchised car and commercial truck dealerships.
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- New and Used Motor Vehicles: Sells a wide range of new and used cars, heavy and medium-duty trucks, and buses through its dealership networks.
- Vehicle and Collision Repair Services: Provides maintenance, repair, and collision services for automotive and commercial vehicles.
- Finance and Lease Contract Placement: Facilitates finance and lease agreements for vehicle purchases through third-party providers.
- Third-Party Insurance Products: Offers placement services for various third-party insurance products related to vehicles.
- Aftermarket Products: Sells a variety of aftermarket products for vehicles.
- Wholesale Vehicle Parts: Engages in the wholesale distribution of parts for vehicles.
- Truck and Bus Distribution: Imports and distributes specific brands of heavy and medium-duty trucks and buses, primarily in Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific.
- Engine and Power System Distribution: Distributes diesel and gas engines, as well as integrated power systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) primarily serves individual consumers and a wide range of commercial businesses rather than a small number of major named corporate customers. Based on its diversified transportation services, its customer base can be broadly categorized as follows:
- Individual Consumers: This segment includes individuals purchasing new and used motor vehicles (cars) from Penske's extensive network of retail automotive franchises and CarShop used vehicle dealerships. These customers also utilize related services such as vehicle financing, lease contracts, third-party insurance products, aftermarket products, and vehicle and collision repair services.
- Commercial Businesses and Fleets: This category encompasses businesses and organizations that purchase heavy and medium-duty trucks (e.g., Freightliner, Western Star, MAN), buses, and Dennis Eagle refuse collection vehicles. These customers typically include trucking companies, logistics firms, construction companies, municipal governments, and other enterprises requiring commercial transportation and specialized vehicle solutions. They also rely on Penske for parts, maintenance, and repair services for their commercial vehicle fleets.
- Industrial and Power System Customers: This group consists of businesses and entities that purchase diesel and gas engines and power systems distributed by Penske. These customers typically operate in sectors requiring specialized power solutions, which can include marine applications, industrial equipment, and power generation.
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- Daimler Truck (DTG.DE)
- Traton Group (8TRA.DE)
- Dennis Eagle
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Roger S. Penske, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Roger S. Penske, born in 1937 in Shaker Heights, Ohio, is the founder, chairman, and namesake of the Penske Corporation, a diversified transportation services company that includes Penske Automotive Group and Penske Truck Leasing. He studied business at Lehigh University and began his career as a race-car driver, earning the title of Sports Illustrated's 1961 Sports Car Club of America Driver of the Year. In 1963, he purchased a Chevrolet dealership, which became the cornerstone of his business enterprises. Penske retired from driving in 1965 to focus on building his automotive empire and also founded Team Penske, a highly successful auto racing team. He also served as Chief Executive Officer of Detroit Diesel Corporation.
Shelley Hulgrave, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Shelley Hulgrave was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Penske Automotive Group in June 2021. Prior to this role, she served as Senior Vice President from February 2020 to June 2021 and as Vice President and Corporate Controller from June 2015 to June 2021. Ms. Hulgrave joined Penske Automotive Group in October 2006 as Corporate Accounting Manager, coordinating accounting teams across the United States, Europe, and Australia. Before her tenure at Penske, she held various positions at DaimlerChrysler Financial and Ernst & Young.
Robert H. Kurnick Jr., President and Director
Robert H. Kurnick Jr. has served as the President of Penske Automotive Group since April 2008. He is also the Vice Chairman of Penske Corporation, a position he assumed in September 2017, and previously served as President of Penske Corporation from 2003. Mr. Kurnick has held various roles within the Penske organization since joining the company in 1995. Before his time at Penske, he was a partner at the law firm of Honigman, Miller, Schwartz & Cohn. He also serves on the board of directors for Penske Corporation and Penske Automotive Group.
Greg Penske, Vice Chair of the Board, Penske Automotive Group; Chair and CEO of Penske Motor Group
Greg Penske is the Vice Chair of the Board for Penske Automotive Group and the Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Penske Motor Group, a division of Penske Automotive Group that includes Toyota and Lexus dealerships. He is the son of Roger Penske and graduated from Cornell University with a degree in business management. Mr. Penske is the former president and CEO of Penske Motorsports, Inc., which operated racetracks across the country, including the development of Auto Club Speedway. He also serves on the board of directors for Penske Corporation and Penske Entertainment.
Claude H. Denker, Executive Vice President, Human Resources
Claude H. Denker has served as Executive Vice President, Human Resources for Penske Automotive Group since July 2015.
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Key Risks to Penske Automotive (PAG)
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) faces several significant risks that could impact its financial performance and operations. These risks stem from broader economic trends, evolving regulatory landscapes, and the company's financial structure.
The most significant risk to Penske Automotive is its exposure to macroeconomic conditions and fluctuations in consumer demand. The company's business, which includes retail automotive and commercial truck dealerships, is highly sensitive to economic downturns, inflation, and changing consumer incentives. Ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including inflation, product availability, and shifts in consumer purchasing behavior, are noted as factors that could affect future sales and margins, particularly in markets like the U.K.. Furthermore, weakness in the freight market can directly impact the profitability of its commercial truck sales and rental revenue, leading to lower gains on used truck sales and increased bad debt expense. Evidence of this sensitivity can be seen in the company's same-store sales falling behind peers and a downward trend in earnings per share.
Another key risk involves regulatory changes, particularly regarding electric vehicle (EV) mandates and international trade policies. Penske Automotive operates in a highly regulated industry and must adapt to significant shifts. For instance, new government mandates in the U.K. require 33% of new cars sold in 2026 to be electric vehicles, which could materially impact PAG's sales mix, margin structure, and compliance costs. The company also continuously monitors and adapts to the evolving landscape of tariffs and potential changes in international trade policy, which may increase operating costs and affect profitability. Compliance costs associated with a myriad of regulations, including those related to emissions standards and electrification, also represent a notable weakness.
Finally, Penske Automotive carries a substantial amount of debt on its balance sheet, which presents a financial risk. The company's total liabilities significantly outweigh its cash and short-term receivables. Specifically, its total liabilities amount to approximately $10.3 billion more than its cash and short-term receivables combined. This level of leverage could make the company risky, and if lenders were to demand a stronger balance sheet, shareholders might face severe dilution.
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- The accelerating shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) across both passenger and commercial segments poses a threat to Penske Automotive's long-standing revenue streams from vehicle maintenance, collision repair services, and wholesale parts. EVs have fewer moving parts, require less frequent and different types of maintenance, and the company's distribution of diesel and gas engines is directly threatened by this transition.
- The emergence and expansion of direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales models by vehicle manufacturers (e.g., Tesla) and online-only automotive retailers (e.g., Carvana, Cazoo) threaten Penske Automotive's traditional franchised dealership model. These new models bypass the physical dealership network, directly impacting new and used vehicle sales volume and profitability.
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Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) operates across diverse transportation services, encompassing retail automotive, retail commercial truck, and import and distribution of various vehicles and power systems. The addressable markets for their main products and services vary significantly by region.Retail Automotive
- United States (New and Used Car Sales): While a combined market size for new and used car sales in the US was not explicitly found, the US automotive after-sales services market, which includes repair and maintenance, was valued at USD 183.4 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 473.9 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% between 2024 and 2032. Another estimate for the US automotive repair and maintenance service market in 2023 was USD 184 million, though this figure seems exceptionally low and might be a typo for billions. The US automotive after-sales services market is valued at USD 211.14 billion in 2026. The Auto Mechanics industry in the United States alone is estimated at USD 89.6 billion in 2026.
- United Kingdom (New and Used Car Sales): The total UK car market, encompassing both new and used vehicles, is anticipated to reach 9.8 million transactions in 2025 and is projected to hit 10 million transactions in 2026, returning to its pre-pandemic scale. Specifically, used car sales in the UK were 7,807,872 units in 2025 and are expected to generate approximately USD 109.98 billion in revenue by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2030. New car registrations are forecast to be 2.035 million in 2026.
- United Kingdom (Automotive Repair and Maintenance): The market size for motor vehicle maintenance and repair in the UK was valued at £34.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach £34.9 billion in 2025. The UK Automotive Service Market is expected to reach USD 55.0 billion (approximately £43.4 billion) by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 5.67% from 2025 to 2035.
Retail Commercial Truck
- North America (Commercial Truck Sales): The North America commercial vehicle market, which includes both the US and Canada, was valued at USD 557.33 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to USD 859.43 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.93% from 2025 to 2033. Another source indicates the North America commercial vehicles market generated USD 898.08 billion in revenue in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 1.19 trillion by 2033, with a CAGR of 3.6% from 2026 to 2033. The United States held the majority of the regional market share at 82.5% in 2024.
- United States (Heavy and Medium Duty Truck Sales): The US heavy-duty truck market alone was valued at USD 51.56 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 71.81 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.85%. The US heavy-duty trucks market is projected to reach USD 66.48 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 5.52% from 2025. Approximately 1.6 million commercial vehicles (Classes 1–8) were registered in the US in 2023.
- Canada (Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Sales): The Canadian medium and heavy trucks market had total revenues of USD 9.8 billion in 2022. The market is anticipated to add more than USD 1.90 billion between 2025 and 2030. In 2023, the sales volume for heavy trucks in Canada was 37.94 thousand units.
Import and Distribution (Australia, New Zealand, and Pacific)
- Australia (Commercial Vehicle Market): The Australia commercial vehicle market size reached USD 24.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 39.0 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.61% during 2026-2034. Another valuation states the market reached AUD 23.02 billion (approximately USD 15.1 billion) in 2025 and is expected to grow to AUD 36.44 billion (approximately USD 23.9 billion) by 2035. The market was also reported at USD 23.33 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 37.29 billion by 2033. The Australia light commercial vehicle market is expected to reach USD 1,000.2 million by 2030.
- New Zealand (Commercial Vehicle Sales): New commercial vehicle sales in New Zealand totaled 41,416 units in 2024. Total registrations for new commercials reached 39,866 in 2025.
Distribution of Diesel and Gas Engines, and Power Systems
Specific addressable market sizes for the distribution of diesel and gas engines, and power systems were not found with regional breakdowns in the provided search results; therefore, this information is null.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of strategic acquisitions, sustained expansion of its high-margin service and parts operations, and the development of new business ventures.
One primary driver of future revenue growth for Penske Automotive is its strategy of **strategic acquisitions and dealership portfolio expansion**. The company has actively pursued and completed significant acquisitions, particularly in the luxury automotive segment and commercial truck operations. For instance, recent acquisitions in 2025, including Longo Toyota and Lexus dealerships in California and Texas, and Ferrari dealerships in Italy, are collectively expected to add approximately $2 billion in estimated annualized revenues. Further acquisitions, such as Lexus of Orlando and Lexus of Winter Park, are projected to contribute an additional $450 million in annual revenues, demonstrating a clear growth path through inorganic expansion.
A second key driver is the consistent **growth in Penske's high-margin service and parts business**. This segment has shown robust performance, with U.S. same-store service and parts revenues increasing by 6% and related gross profit climbing 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This growth is supported by an aging vehicle fleet and the increasing complexity of vehicle technologies, leading to higher demand for maintenance and repair services. Management has highlighted the strategic importance of this segment, noting a 9% increase in same-store retail automotive service and parts gross profit in Q2 2025. The company also increased its automotive technician headcount by 2% year-over-year in Q4 2025 to support this growing demand.
Third, the company's expansion into **new business areas, specifically the Energy Solutions segment**, is expected to contribute to future revenue. Penske is diversifying beyond traditional retail by developing this segment, with a stated target of generating approximately $1 billion in revenue from Energy Solutions by 2030. This initiative represents a strategic move into a growing market and provides a new stream of potential revenue for the company.
Finally, Penske's ongoing strategy of **optimizing and realigning its retail automotive portfolio** is a driver of growth. This includes the strategic transition of U.K.-based CarShop locations to Sytner Select dealerships in 2024, aiming to better align with existing franchised dealerships and focus on retailing premium branded vehicles to enhance gross margins. The company's emphasis on premium brands, which account for 72% of its franchised dealership revenue, along with the adoption of the agency model for certain new vehicle sales, suggests a focus on higher-value transactions and improved profitability within its existing operations.
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Share Repurchases
- Penske Automotive Group repurchased 1,178,411 shares of common stock, or approximately 1.8% of its outstanding shares, during the twelve months ended December 31, 2025. As of that date, $247.5 million remained available under its securities repurchase program.
- During 2024, the company repurchased 0.4 million shares for approximately $58.7 million under its securities repurchase program and acquired an additional 0.1 million shares for $18.8 million from employees. As of December 31, 2024, $156.8 million remained available under the repurchase authority.
- In 2023, the company repurchased 2.6 million shares for approximately $358.7 million under its securities repurchase program. At the end of 2023, $215.5 million remained available under the existing repurchase authority.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2025, Penske Automotive Group acquired Penske Motor Group, LLC, which included four franchised automotive dealerships (Longo Toyota, Longo Lexus, Lexus Stevens Creek, and Longo Toyota of Prosper) for $519.4 million. This acquisition is expected to add $1.5 billion in annualized revenue.
- In January 2026, the company announced an agreement to acquire Lexus of Orlando and Lexus of Winter Park in Central Florida, with the transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 and add an estimated $450 million in annualized revenue.
- In January 2024, Penske Automotive Group completed the acquisition of Rybrook Group Limited, consisting of 16 retail automotive franchises in the United Kingdom, which was expected to add approximately $1 billion in annualized revenues.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $324.6 million in 2025, $377.8 million in 2024, and $386.0 million in 2023.
- These expenditures primarily focus on improvements to existing dealership facilities, the construction of new facilities, and the acquisition of property or buildings associated with existing leased facilities and land for future development.
- In the first quarter of 2025, $77 million was invested in digital expenditures aimed at improving or expanding facilities.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 123.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 21,969 |
| Op Inc LTM | 593 |
| FCF LTM | 288 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 154 |
| CFO LTM | 875 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 800 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/EBIT | 3.7 |
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/CFO | 3.7 |
| Total Yield | 9.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 2.7 |
| Net D/E | 2.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -26.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -31.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -98.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $145.93 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 9.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/23/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $160.43 | $166.01 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -9.0% | -12.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.4% | 27.3% |
| Downside Capture | 62.58 | 66.26 |
| Upside Capture | -9.78 | 54.26 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.0% | 49.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| Up Beta | 2.88 | 2.76 | 2.21 | 1.32 | 0.96 | 1.02 |
| Down Beta | 0.82 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| Up Capture | -39% | -7% | 18% | 4% | 43% | 61% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 17 | 28 | 54 | 117 | 361 |
| Down Capture | -30% | 24% | 33% | 55% | 77% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 33 | 70 | 134 | 391 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAG | -4.2% | 27.7% | -0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 23.7% | 0.46 | 56.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | -0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 10.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 47.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 24.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAG | 15.5% | 32.4% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 23.7% | 0.30 | 52.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 50.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 47.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 16.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAG | 17.0% | 36.1% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 21.9% | 0.52 | 56.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 56.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | -2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 24.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 51.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | 2.3% | -3.5% | -15.0% |
| 10/29/2025 | 0.1% | -1.9% | 1.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | 0.4% | 6.8% | 12.9% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.0% | -0.4% | 6.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | -0.8% | -7.0% | -14.3% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.7% | -2.5% | 8.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | -1.6% | -8.5% | -2.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.6% | 0.2% | -1.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 17 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 5.4% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -3.3% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.1% | 15.8% | 31.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -8.5% | -15.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hulgrave, Michelle | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 160.17 | 2,100 | 336,350 | 2,694,328 | Form |
| 2 | Pierce, Sandra E | Trust | Sell | 8292025 | 187.05 | 1,604 | 300,028 | 285,999 | Form | |
| 3 | Hulgrave, Michelle | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 182.55 | 1,100 | 200,806 | 3,454,221 | Form |
| 4 | Davis, Lisa Ann | Trust | Sell | 8202025 | 180.74 | 1,604 | 289,907 | 276,351 | Form | |
| 5 | Spradlin, Shane M | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Sec. | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 184.30 | 3,000 | 552,904 | 6,109,960 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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