Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $42.14 | Market Cap: $41.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $42.14Market Cap: $41.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.8 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Geothermal Energy, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Geothermal Energy, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
OXY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stock moved by -3.9% from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025:
1. Continued Downward Pressure on Crude Oil Prices: During the specified period, crude oil prices faced sustained downward pressure. For instance, Brent crude was around $66 per barrel and WTI near $63 per barrel as of August 2025, with forecasts indicating accelerated downward pressure into the second half of 2025. Although there were minor fluctuations, the overall trend contributed to a bearish outlook for oil producers.
2. OPEC+ Decision to Unwind Production Cuts: OPEC+ began phasing out voluntary supply cuts in April 2025 and moved to fully unwind most of them by September 2025. This strategic shift raised concerns about potential inventory builds as global supply continued to outpace demand growth projections, adding to the downward pressure on oil prices.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OXY Return | -57% | 68% | 119% | -4% | -16% | -14% | 11% |
| Peers Return | -25% | 49% | 63% | -10% | 5% | 23% | 112% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OXY Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 56% | 60% | 46% | 46% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OXY Max Drawdown | -78% | 0% | 0% | -11% | -23% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -72% | -17% | -1% | -21% | -10% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, IMO, CVE, INDO. See OXY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OXY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -81.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 432.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 490 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 769 days | 1480 days |
Compare to XOM, CVX, IMO, CVE, INDO
In The Past
Occidental Petroleum's stock fell -33.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/25/2021. A -33.3% loss requires a 49.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OXY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.9% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.0% | 2.0% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 23.0% | 23.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.5% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 01312025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -8.5% | -22.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.9% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.0% | 2.0% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 23.0% | 23.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.5% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 01312025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -8.5% | -22.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Occidental Petroleum
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 69.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 48.4 |
| Rev LTM | 56,602 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,457 |
| FCF LTM | 4,783 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,745 |
| CFO LTM | 12,146 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,366 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 48.4 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 9.3 |
| P/E | 16.6 |
| P/CFO | 7.4 |
| Total Yield | 9.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -82.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil and gas | 21,284 | 27,165 | 18,941 | 13,066 | 13,941 |
| Chemical | 5,321 | 6,757 | 5,246 | 3,733 | 4,102 |
| Midstream and marketing | 2,551 | 4,136 | 2,863 | 1,768 | 4,132 |
| Corporate and eliminations | -899 | -1,424 | -1,094 | -758 | -1,264 |
| Total | 28,257 | 36,634 | 25,956 | 17,809 | 20,911 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil and gas | 53,786 | 56,132 | 62,931 | 80,093 | |
| Midstream and marketing | 13,327 | 11,132 | 9,856 | 14,915 | |
| Chemical | 4,682 | 4,671 | 4,326 | 4,361 | |
| Corporate and eliminations | 2,213 | 3,101 | 2,951 | 7,821 | |
| Total | 74,008 | 75,036 | 80,064 | 107,190 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 0.1% | ||
| 8/6/2025 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 8.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.2% | 12.3% | 9.0% |
| 2/18/2025 | 4.4% | 0.1% | -1.3% |
| 11/12/2024 | 1.7% | 0.4% | -3.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | 4.3% | 1.5% | -7.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | -2.1% | -3.1% | -7.7% |
| 2/14/2024 | 4.9% | 5.6% | 9.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 4.1% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -1.4% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 22.7% | 58.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.2% | -15.6% | -62.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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| FinViz |