Oshkosh (OSK)
Market Price (11/19/2025): $122.38 | Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Oshkosh (OSK)
Market Price (11/19/2025): $122.38Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 9.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 9.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
OSK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
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Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OSK Return | -8% | 33% | -20% | 25% | -11% | 31% | 42% |
| Peers Return | 167% | 17% | 1% | 40% | 23% | 6% | 471% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OSK Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 40% | 55% | 55% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OSK Max Drawdown | -48% | -1% | -37% | -17% | -12% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -11% | -30% | -10% | -18% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, PCAR, WNC, CAT, CMI. See OSK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/18/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OSK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1040 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 832 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1577.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2916 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TSLA, PCAR, WNC, CAT, CMI
In The Past
Oshkosh's stock fell -48.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -48.7% loss requires a 94.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Oshkosh Earnings Notes | |||
| Is Oshkosh Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| Oshkosh vs Verizon Communications: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Oshkosh vs United Airlines: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| null | |||
| Better Bet Than OSK Stock: Pay Less Than Oshkosh To Get More From CCL, IBKR | |||
| OSK Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Oshkosh Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -9.3% in 2024 and 1.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Oshkosh (OSK) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Oshkosh (OSK) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Better Bet Than Alamo Stock: Pay Less To Get More From GATX, OSK | August 15th, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than Caterpillar Stock: Pay Less To Get More From OSK | August 6th, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | August 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than Caterpillar Stock: Pay Less To Get More From OSK | July 25th, 2025 | ||
| Why Oshkosh Stock Is Up 18% Over The Last Month | November 19th, 2019 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OSK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.0% | -14.0% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.5% | -10.5% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -9.7% | -9.7% | -9.7% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.7% | -5.7% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -5.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.0% | -14.0% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.5% | -10.5% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -9.7% | -9.7% | -9.7% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.7% | -5.7% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -5.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Oshkosh
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 261.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 57.6 |
| Rev LTM | 31,556 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,560 |
| FCF LTM | 2,736 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,299 |
| CFO LTM | 4,113 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,618 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 57.6 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 21.5 |
| P/CFO | 14.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 78.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 15.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -9.2% | -12.4% | |
| 8/1/2025 | 3.2% | 6.9% | 10.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.1% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | 18.4% | 15.7% | 7.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.3% | -2.5% | 5.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.0% | -13.6% | -6.8% |
| 4/25/2024 | -2.1% | -7.0% | -4.2% |
| 1/30/2024 | 1.0% | -0.6% | -2.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 2.4% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -5.5% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 18.4% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.2% | -13.6% | -16.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1262022 | 10-QT 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |