Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $85.59 | Market Cap: $15.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $85.59Market Cap: $15.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -5.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 104x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -5.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 104x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OKTA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
It appears there might be a misunderstanding regarding the stock movement. Based on the available information for Okta (OKTA) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, the stock did not move down by 7.4%. Instead, it appears to have experienced some fluctuations and a recent decline, but the provided search results highlight generally positive financial performance and analyst ratings around early December 2025.
Here are some key points based on the search results for the period, which indicate a more mixed to positive outlook rather than a -7.4% decline:
1. Strong Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Beat Expectations. Okta reported its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on December 2, 2025, with adjusted earnings of $0.82 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.75 per share. The company also posted revenues of $742 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $730 million. This performance indicates financial strength and growth.
2. Raised Full-Year and Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance. Okta increased its full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $3.43 to $3.44 and projected revenue to be $2.91 billion, both exceeding prior outlooks and analyst estimates. The company also updated its Q4 2026 guidance with EPS ranging from $0.84 to $0.85 and revenue from $748 million to $750 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OKTA Return | 120% | -12% | -70% | 32% | -13% | 9% | -26% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 14% | -3% | 15% | 61% | 936% | 2180% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OKTA Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 27% | 19% | 43% | 45% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OKTA Max Drawdown | -17% | -22% | -80% | -5% | -22% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -2% | -9% | -19% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC. See OKTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OKTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 548.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 120 days |
Compare to MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
Okta's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 548.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OKTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Okta
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 151.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,763 |
| Op Inc LTM | 83 |
| FCF LTM | 6,346 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 7,168 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 151.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| P/EBIT | 26.4 |
| P/E | 35.0 |
| P/CFO | 20.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 114.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 46.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3052025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3012024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3032023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12012022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3072022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12022021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |