Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $88.36 | Market Cap: $15.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $88.36Market Cap: $15.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 79x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 92x |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% | |
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.4% | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.4% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 79x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 92x |
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
OKTA Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
OKTA Return | 120% | -12% | -70% | 32% | -13% | 12% | -23% |
Peers Return | 41% | 13% | -2% | 30% | 21% | 7% | 164% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
OKTA Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 33% | |
Peers Win Rate | 53% | 45% | 32% | 42% | 40% | 49% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
OKTA Max Drawdown | -17% | -22% | -80% | -5% | -22% | 0% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -12% | -22% | -6% | -2% | -20% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, IBM, CYBR, SAIL, BIYA. See OKTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | OKTA | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -84.6% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 548.1% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -31.1% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Okta's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 548.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OKTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.3% | -6.3% | -6.3% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 22.0% | 22.0% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.3% | -6.3% | -6.3% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 22.0% | 22.0% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Okta
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 184.55 |
Mkt Cap | 24.5 |
Rev LTM | 2,763 |
Op Inc LTM | 83 |
FCF LTM | 838 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 5,956 |
CFO LTM | 853 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 6,845 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 13.8% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 20.7% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 24.5 |
P/S | 13.1 |
P/EBIT | 30.3 |
P/E | 37.5 |
P/CFO | 19.7 |
Total Yield | 1.1% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
D/E | 0.0 |
Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 1.2% |
3M Rtn | 1.0% |
6M Rtn | 27.3% |
12M Rtn | 23.5% |
3Y Rtn | 130.2% |
1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
3M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
6M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
12M Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 44.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/26/2025 | 1.6% | -1.9% | -0.4% |
5/27/2025 | -16.2% | -17.5% | -21.8% |
3/3/2025 | 24.3% | 20.7% | 20.1% |
12/3/2024 | 5.4% | 1.3% | -1.2% |
8/28/2024 | -17.6% | -22.6% | -23.4% |
5/29/2024 | -7.8% | -8.1% | -2.9% |
2/28/2024 | 22.9% | 24.7% | 19.8% |
11/29/2023 | -2.5% | 0.1% | 25.8% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 12 | 12 | 11 |
# Negative | 12 | 12 | 13 |
Median Positive | 9.0% | 8.5% | 13.2% |
Median Negative | -7.9% | -11.3% | -7.8% |
Max Positive | 26.5% | 24.7% | 28.2% |
Max Negative | -33.7% | -31.4% | -37.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
1312025 | 3052025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
1312024 | 3012024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
1312023 | 3032023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
10312022 | 12012022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
1312022 | 3072022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
10312021 | 12022021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
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