Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Market Price (11/24/2025): $134.325 | Market Cap: $28.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Market Price (11/24/2025): $134.325Market Cap: $28.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ODFL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -9.9% stock movement for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) from July 31, 2025, to November 24, 2025: **1. Weakening Domestic Economy and Ongoing Freight Recession.** The company's performance has been significantly impacted by persistent softness in the domestic economy, with multiple reports referencing an ongoing "freight recession" or "prolonged downturn" in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) trucking business during 2025. **2. Significant Decline in LTL Volumes.** Old Dominion Freight Line experienced considerable year-over-year decreases in key volume metrics, including a 9.0% decline in LTL tons per day and a 7.9% drop in LTL shipments per day during the third quarter of 2025. This trend continued into October 2025, with revenue per day down approximately 6.5% to 7% and LTL tons per day falling 11.6% compared to the prior year. **3. Reduced Profitability and Increased Operating Ratio.** In the third quarter of 2025, ODFL's profit fell 12.2%, and revenue decreased by 4.3% year-over-year. The company's operating ratio, a key measure of efficiency, increased by 160 basis points to 74.3% in Q3 2025, primarily due to the decline in revenue having a deleveraging effect on operating expenses. Management anticipated a further sequential increase of 200 to 250 basis points in the operating ratio for the fourth quarter. **4. Negative Revisions and Price Target Cuts by Analysts.** Several analysts revised their outlooks for ODFL during this period. Zacks Research cut its FY2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Old Dominion to $4.79 (from $4.87) in mid-November 2025. Additionally, in late October 2025, firms like Stephens and Wells Fargo & Company reduced their price targets for ODFL, with Wells Fargo also assigning an "underweight" (sell) rating. **5. Industry Overcapacity and Constrained Spot Rates.** The broader truckload market continued to grapple with overcapacity in 2025, impacting freight demand and pricing. This excess capacity kept spot rates under pressure, contributing to a challenging revenue environment for carriers like Old Dominion Freight Line.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ODFL Return | 55% | 84% | -20% | 43% | -13% | -23% | 118% |
| Peers Return | 47% | 56% | -23% | 68% | 4% | -16% | 160% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ODFL Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 35% | 62% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ODFL Max Drawdown | -15% | -2% | -35% | -1% | -17% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -4% | -36% | -6% | -16% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ODFL, JBHT, XPO, KNX, SAIA. See ODFL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ODFL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 229 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 227 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 615 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ODFL, JBHT, XPO, KNX, SAIA
In The Past
Old Dominion Freight Line's stock fell -36.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/7/2021. A -36.2% loss requires a 56.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ODFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.3% | -11.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -13.6% | -13.6% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -10.6% | -10.6% | -12.2% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.8% |
| 09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.3% | -7.3% | -12.8% |
| 02282025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.0% | -23.5% | -28.1% |
| 11302022 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 29.1% | -6.9% |
| 05312022 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.2% | 20.6% | -10.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.3% | -11.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -13.6% | -13.6% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -10.6% | -10.6% | -12.2% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.0% | -4.0% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.8% |
| 09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.3% | -7.3% | -12.8% |
| 02282025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.0% | -23.5% | -28.1% |
| 11302022 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 29.1% | -6.9% |
| 05312022 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.2% | 20.6% | -10.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Old Dominion Freight Line
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 134.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.6 |
| Rev LTM | 7,478 |
| Op Inc LTM | 706 |
| FCF LTM | 232 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2 |
| CFO LTM | 949 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 947 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.6 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 20.3 |
| P/E | 28.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 0.0% | 3.9% | |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.7% | -9.2% | -4.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.8% | -1.6% | 8.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | -3.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | -5.5% | 0.9% | 7.4% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% |
| 4/24/2024 | -11.0% | -17.1% | -21.3% |
| 1/31/2024 | -1.2% | 7.5% | 11.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -2.4% | -6.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 15.9% | 21.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -17.1% | -21.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Satterfield Adam N | EVP and CFO | 3042025 | Buy | 175.93 | 2,457 | 432,260 | 4,150,892 | Form |
| 1 | Gantt Greg C | 2142025 | Sell | 205.87 | 6,414 | 1,320,450 | 21,465,241 | Form | |
| 2 | SUGGS LEO H | 11122024 | Sell | 225.44 | 3,000 | 676,320 | 1,664,424 | Form | |
| 3 | CONGDON DAVID S | Executive Chairman | 11082024 | Sell | 226.30 | 60,000 | 13,578,000 | 299,077,175 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |