Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Market Price (10/23/2025): $141.55 | Market Cap: $29.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Market Price (10/23/2025): $141.55Market Cap: $29.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.1% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ODFL Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ODFL Return | 55% | 84% | -20% | 43% | -13% | -20% | 124% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 46% | -20% | 66% | 5% | -10% | 163% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ODFL Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 53% | 30% | 53% | 42% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ODFL Max Drawdown | -15% | -2% | -35% | -1% | -17% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -3% | -31% | -3% | -12% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ETS, ODFL, XPO, JBHT, SAIA. See ODFL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ODFL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 229 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 227 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 615 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ETS, ODFL, XPO, JBHT, SAIA
In The Past
Old Dominion Freight Line's stock fell -36.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/7/2021. A -36.2% loss requires a 56.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ODFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -6.2% |
| 09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -7.3% |
| 08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.6% | -6.6% | -8.5% |
| 08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.3% | -2.3% | -5.6% |
| 08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 26.7% | 26.7% | -1.2% |
| 02282025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.0% | -17.8% | -23.5% |
| 11302022 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 29.1% | -6.9% |
| 05312022 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.2% | 20.6% | -10.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -6.2% |
| 09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -7.3% |
| 08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.6% | -6.6% | -8.5% |
| 08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.3% | -2.3% | -5.6% |
| 08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 26.7% | 26.7% | -1.2% |
| 02282025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.0% | -17.8% | -23.5% |
| 11302022 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 29.1% | -6.9% |
| 05312022 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.2% | 20.6% | -10.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Old Dominion Freight Line
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 141.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| Rev LTM | 5,639 |
| Op Inc LTM | 695 |
| FCF LTM | 123 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 100 |
| CFO LTM | 805 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,165 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 20.8 |
| P/E | 28.5 |
| P/CFO | 13.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.7% | -9.2% | -4.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.8% | -1.6% | 8.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | -3.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | -5.5% | 0.9% | 7.4% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% |
| 4/24/2024 | -11.0% | -17.1% | -21.3% |
| 1/31/2024 | -1.2% | 7.5% | 11.8% |
| 10/25/2023 | -3.9% | -2.4% | 4.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 17 | 18 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -2.4% | -6.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 15.9% | 21.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -17.1% | -21.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11032021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Satterfield Adam N | EVP and CFO | 3042025 | Buy | 175.93 | 2,457 | 432,260 | 4,150,892 | Form |
| 1 | Gantt Greg C | 2142025 | Sell | 205.87 | 6,414 | 1,320,450 | 21,465,241 | Form | |
| 2 | SUGGS LEO H | 11122024 | Sell | 225.44 | 3,000 | 676,320 | 1,664,424 | Form | |
| 3 | CONGDON DAVID S | Executive Chairman | 11082024 | Sell | 226.30 | 60,000 | 13,578,000 | 299,077,175 | Form |
| 4 | Gantt Greg C | 10292024 | Sell | 200.07 | 7,000 | 1,400,490 | 19,584,852 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |