Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Market Price (10/26/2026): $183.65 | Market Cap: $38.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Market Price (10/26/2026): $183.65Market Cap: $38.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.0% Key risksODFL key risks include [1] lower shipment volumes and rates due to a challenging macroeconomic environment and [2] intense competition creating pressure to sacrifice its pricing discipline to maintain market share. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.0% |
| Key risksODFL key risks include [1] lower shipment volumes and rates due to a challenging macroeconomic environment and [2] intense competition creating pressure to sacrifice its pricing discipline to maintain market share. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Multiple analyst downgrades and price target reductions have created downward pressure on the stock.
In early fiscal Q4 2026, several financial institutions revised their outlooks for Old Dominion Freight Line. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its price target to $232.00 from $250.00 on October 5, 2026, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Similarly, Susquehanna lowered its price objective from $232.00 to $202.00 with a "neutral" rating on October 2, 2026. Raymond James Financial, Inc. also decreased its price target to $215 from $241 on October 15, 2026. These collective adjustments signaled a more cautious sentiment regarding the company's valuation.
2. Softening Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) volumes and moderate freight demand have impacted operational metrics.
Old Dominion's August 2026 operating metrics indicated a decrease in LTL tons per day by 0.9% compared to August 2025, primarily driven by a 2.4% decrease in LTL shipments per day. This trend reflects a broader industry environment characterized by stable but moderate demand in the road freight market during fiscal Q3 2026. While LTL revenue per hundredweight increased, the overall decline in shipment volumes suggests a challenging operating environment affecting network density and profitability.
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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Multiple analyst downgrades and price target reductions have created downward pressure on the stock.
In early fiscal Q4 2026, several financial institutions revised their outlooks for Old Dominion Freight Line. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its price target to $232.00 from $250.00 on October 5, 2026, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Similarly, Susquehanna lowered its price objective from $232.00 to $202.00 with a "neutral" rating on October 2, 2026. Raymond James Financial, Inc. also decreased its price target to $215 from $241 on October 15, 2026. These collective adjustments signaled a more cautious sentiment regarding the company's valuation.
2. Softening Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) volumes and moderate freight demand have impacted operational metrics.
Old Dominion's August 2026 operating metrics indicated a decrease in LTL tons per day by 0.9% compared to August 2025, primarily driven by a 2.4% decrease in LTL shipments per day. This trend reflects a broader industry environment characterized by stable but moderate demand in the road freight market during fiscal Q3 2026. While LTL revenue per hundredweight increased, the overall decline in shipment volumes suggests a challenging operating environment affecting network density and profitability.
3. Anticipated Q3 2026 earnings expectations, while showing year-over-year growth, suggest a slight sequential moderation.
Old Dominion Freight Line is scheduled to release its fiscal Q3 2026 results on October 28, 2026. Analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $1.61 on $1.57 billion in revenue for the quarter. Although this represents an expected 25.8% increase in EPS from Q3 2025 ($1.28), it is slightly lower than the $1.68 EPS reported in the preceding fiscal Q2 2026, which had beaten analyst estimates. This sequential moderation in expected EPS might have led investors to reassess near-term growth prospects.
4. Broader macroeconomic uncertainties have contributed to market volatility in the freight transportation sector.
Global freight transportation and logistics trends during fiscal Q3 2026 highlighted ongoing Middle East disruptions as a key driver of near-term economic and financial uncertainty. Additionally, the freight market is poised for continued volatility and sustained rate inflation through the end of 2026, with factors like volatile fuel prices and labor shortages adding to operational challenges for carriers. This macroeconomic backdrop can create headwinds and investor apprehension for companies in the logistics industry.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.5% change in ODFL stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 216.26 | 182.70 | -15.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,456 | 5,603 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.5% | 19.4% | 5.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.7 | 34.8 | -22.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 208 | 208 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ODFL | -15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 16.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | -11.1% | 25.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.2% change in ODFL stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 194.85 | 182.70 | -6.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,496 | 5,603 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.6% | 19.4% | 4.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.7 | 34.8 | -12.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 209 | 208 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ODFL | -6.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.2% | 29.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.0% | 40.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.6% change in ODFL stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 139.91 | 182.70 | 30.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,639 | 5,603 | -0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.4% | 19.4% | 0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.0 | 34.8 | 29.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 211 | 208 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 30.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 33.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.7% | 46.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.1% change in ODFL stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 201.01 | 182.70 | -9.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,951 | 5,603 | -5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.5% | 19.4% | -9.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.4 | 34.8 | 1.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 219 | 208 | 5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ODFL | -9.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.9% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.9% | 55.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ODFL Return | 84% | -20% | 43% | -13% | -10% | 22% | 100% |
| Peers Return | 48% | -19% | 58% | 4% | 2% | 15% | 131% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ODFL Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 35% | 60% | 46% | 52% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ODFL Max Drawdown | -9% | -35% | -20% | -25% | -39% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -35% | -25% | -25% | -36% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, JBHT, XPO, FDXF, KNX. See ODFL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ODFL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 285 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 229 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Old Dominion Freight Line's stock fell -28.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 39.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ODFL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 285 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 229 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Old Dominion Freight Line's stock fell -28.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 39.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) operates as a prominent Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) motor carrier across the United States and North America. In the LTL model, ODFL consolidates multiple smaller freight shipments from various customers into a single trailer, making it an efficient solution for businesses whose goods don't fill an entire truck. The company provides a range of LTL services, including regional, inter-regional, and national transportation, alongside expedited shipping options for time-sensitive deliveries.
Beyond its core LTL offerings, ODFL extends its services to include valuable logistics and supply chain support. These additional services encompass container drayage, which involves transporting shipping containers, and truckload brokerage, where the company arranges full truckload shipments for customers. Additionally, ODFL offers supply chain consulting to help businesses optimize their transportation and logistics strategies. Its operations are backed by a substantial fleet of tractors and trailers and a wide network of service centers.
The primary market for Old Dominion Freight Line consists of businesses throughout the United States and North America that require reliable and efficient transportation for their freight, particularly those with shipments that are too small to necessitate an entire truck. ODFL caters to a broad customer base seeking not only freight movement but also comprehensive logistics solutions to manage their supply chains effectively.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL):
- The UPS or FedEx for larger, palletized business shipments.
- Think of them as a business-to-business UPS or FedEx, specialized in moving freight that doesn't fill an entire truck.
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- Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Freight Shipping: Transporting smaller shipments from multiple customers in a single truck trailer across regional, inter-regional, and national distances, including expedited options.
- Container Drayage: Transporting shipping containers over short distances, typically between ports, rail yards, and warehouses.
- Truckload Brokerage: Arranging for the transportation of full truckload shipments for customers using third-party carriers.
- Supply Chain Consulting: Providing expert advice and solutions to optimize customers' supply chain operations.
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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier, providing transportation and logistics services primarily to other businesses rather than individual consumers.
Due to the highly diversified nature of its business and extensive customer base across various industries, Old Dominion Freight Line does not publicly disclose specific "major customer companies" by name. LTL carriers like ODFL typically serve tens of thousands of businesses of varying sizes. Therefore, there are no individually identifiable major customer companies whose names or symbols can be listed.
Instead, ODFL's customer base consists of a broad range of businesses that require the shipment of goods and supply chain services. These typically include, but are not limited to:
- Manufacturers across diverse sectors
- Retailers and wholesalers
- Distributors
- E-commerce companies
- Other businesses requiring expedited shipping, container drayage, truckload brokerage, or supply chain consulting services.
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Kevin "Marty" Freeman - President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Freeman has served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Old Dominion Freight Line since July 2023. He joined the company in February 1992 and has held various roles, including Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer (May 2018 - July 2023), Senior Vice President – Sales (January 2011 - May 2018), and Vice President of Field Sales (May 1997 - December 2010). He has 45 years of experience in the transportation industry.
Adam N. Satterfield - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Secretary
Mr. Satterfield was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Assistant Secretary in July 2023. He previously served as Senior Vice President - Finance, Chief Financial Officer, and Assistant Secretary since January 2016. Mr. Satterfield joined Old Dominion in October 2004 as Manager - SEC Reporting. Prior to joining Old Dominion, he was an Audit Manager with KPMG LLP, a global accounting firm. He is a Certified Public Accountant.
David S. Congdon - Executive Chairman of the Board
Mr. Congdon has served as the Executive Chairman of the Board since May 2018. He previously held the positions of Vice Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer from May 2015 to May 2018, and President and Chief Executive Officer from January 2008 to April 2015. Mr. Congdon is the grandson of the company's founders and was named president and COO in 1997.
Gregory B. Plemmons - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Plemmons was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer effective July 2023. His prior roles include Senior Vice President – Sales (since January 2019), Vice President – Field Sales (September 2013 - January 2019), and Vice President – OD Global (December 2002 - September 2013). He has 36 years of experience in the transportation industry, having joined Old Dominion in April 1997.
Christopher T. Brooks - Senior Vice President - Human Resources & Safety
Mr. Brooks serves as the Senior Vice President - Human Resources & Safety at Old Dominion Freight Line. Detailed background information regarding previous companies managed, companies sold, or private equity involvement is not available in the provided search results.
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Key Risks to Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
- Economic Downturns and Weak Freight Demand: Old Dominion Freight Line's business is highly susceptible to general economic conditions. A slowdown or recession in the domestic economy directly impacts Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) volumes and overall freight demand, leading to reduced revenue and potential margin pressure. Prolonged "freight recessions" and declining LTL tons per day pose a persistent risk to the company's profitability.
- Geopolitical Factors and Trade Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical friction, especially concerning US-China trade, creates volatility in LTL freight volumes. New import tariffs or changes in trade policy can significantly impact the volume of goods requiring LTL distribution from ports to inland destinations, directly affecting Old Dominion Freight Line's top line.
- Fuel Price Volatility and Availability: As a motor carrier, fuel represents a significant operating expense for Old Dominion Freight Line. Fluctuations in diesel fuel prices or interruptions in its supply can materially affect operating results, even with the use of fuel surcharge programs, as these may not fully offset increased costs.
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The clear emerging threat for Old Dominion Freight Line is the advancement and commercialization of **autonomous trucking technologies**. This technology has the potential to fundamentally disrupt the core operational model and cost structure of traditional motor carriers like ODFL by significantly reducing the need for human drivers, which constitutes a major portion of operating expenses. Autonomous trucks could also lead to more optimized routes, increased vehicle utilization, and round-the-clock operations, potentially creating a significant competitive advantage for early adopters or new entrants leveraging these capabilities. This mirrors how ride-sharing services disrupted traditional taxi businesses by leveraging technology to change the cost structure and operational efficiency of transportation.
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The addressable markets for Old Dominion Freight Line's (ODFL) main products and services in North America are substantial, as of 2024:
- The Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) market in North America generated an estimated revenue of approximately USD 84.63 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to approximately USD 120.55 billion by 2030.
- The North American freight brokerage market, which includes truckload brokerage, was valued at USD 18.6 billion in 2024. It is estimated to reach USD 22.77 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 32.79 billion by 2030.
- For supply chain consulting services, the North American market was valued at USD 22.0 billion in 2024. Another estimate places the North America Supply Chain Consulting Market size at USD 9.66 billion in 2024, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.8% from 2024 to 2031.
- The container drayage market in North America was valued at USD 8.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase to USD 13.5 billion by 2035.
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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of factors, including leveraging an eventual economic recovery, continuing to gain market share through superior service, maintaining disciplined pricing strategies, and ongoing strategic investments in its infrastructure and technology.
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth:
- Anticipated Economic Recovery and Increased Demand: The company is well-positioned to capitalize on an eventual improvement in the domestic economy and a rebound in overall demand for less-than-truckload (LTL) services. Despite recent periods of softness, ODFL has maintained significant excess service center capacity (approximately 35% in Q4 2025) that can readily absorb increased shipment volumes without requiring substantial new capital expenditures. This allows the company to benefit disproportionately as the freight cycle inflects positively and end-market demand recovers.
- Continued Market Share Gains through Superior Service: Old Dominion Freight Line consistently emphasizes its "best-in-class value proposition," characterized by a 99% on-time service performance and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%. This superior service quality and reliability enable the company to strengthen customer relationships and continuously win market share from competitors, even during challenging economic environments. Management has expressed confidence in gaining market share over the long term due to these service advantages and network capabilities.
- Disciplined Pricing and Yield Management: ODFL maintains a consistent, cost-based approach to pricing and actively implements yield management initiatives. This strategy focuses on improving the profitability of each customer account through yield increases designed to offset cost inflation. The company has demonstrated its ability to increase LTL revenue per hundredweight even when tonnage decreases, aiming for a "positive spread" where revenue per shipment outperforms cost per shipment. This disciplined approach to pricing is a fundamental component of its long-term strategic plan.
- Strategic Investments in Network Capacity and Technology: Old Dominion Freight Line continues to make substantial capital expenditures in its operational infrastructure, including real estate, service center expansion projects, tractors, trailers, and information technology. These ongoing investments are critical for enhancing network density, reducing transit times, improving operational efficiencies, and expanding competitive service offerings. Such strategic investments support the company's long-term growth objectives and its ability to meet evolving customer needs.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line utilized $730.3 million for its share repurchase program.
- The company used $967 million in cash for share repurchases in 2024, which included a $200 million accelerated share repurchase program.
- As of March 2026, a $1.54 billion share repurchase authorization was still active, and a new $200 million stock repurchase program was announced.
Capital Expenditures
- Old Dominion Freight Line's capital expenditures were $415.0 million in 2025, with projected expenditures of $265 million for 2026.
- In 2024, capital expenditures amounted to $771 million, with $373 million specifically allocated to real estate and service center expansion projects.
- Planned capital expenditures for 2026 are focused on $125 million for real estate and service center expansion, $95 million for tractors and trailers, and $45 million for information technology and other assets.
Peer Outperformance in Cargo Ground Transportation
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | -2.0% | 34.8x | 35.1% | 0.2% | 16.5% | — |
| R | Ryder System | 1.5% | 21.0x | 70.9% | 207.7% | 243.4% | +227pp |
| ARCB | ArcBest | -3.2% | 174.2x | 71.2% | 43.7% | 47.5% | +31pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 30 | -8.1% | 105.7% | 140.2% | STRL 1461% · FIX 1308% · AGX 714% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 53.3% | 54.7% | 134.3% | MATX 189% · KEX 134% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | -4.1% | 58.7% | 92.6% | CAT 271% · ALSN 231% · WAB 203% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 52 | -17.9% | 58.0% | 58.8% | ATI 882% · FTAI 704% · HWM 519% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 10.6% | 38.1% | 50.6% | DXPE 378% · AIT 230% · URI 210% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 8.3% | 39.5% | 37.5% | CXW 234% · OPLN 153% · CACI 122% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 3.1% | 53.7% | 36.9% | CRS 842% · MLI 371% · SYM 297% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 29.1% | 56.7% | 27.9% | CSX 53% · UNP 38% · NSC 28% |
| Building Products | 33 | -10.1% | 14.1% | 22.7% | GFF 344% · TT 162% · JCI 115% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation ← | 16 | 34.4% | 8.3% | 15.9% | XPO 252% · R 243% · ARCB 47% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 37 | -13.3% | 72.6% | 3.2% | POWL 1789% · BE 857% · VRT 711% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 9.6% | 7.8% | -6.8% | CSW 121% · DD 74% · CSL 60% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -0.4% | -13.4% | -8.2% | HURN 295% · FCN 10% · BAH 4% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 0.5% | -7.0% | -12.8% | DE 102% · TTC 15% · AGCO -6% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -22.7% | 1.3% | -16.2% | EXLS 70% · BR 9% · G -14% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -49.9% | 15.8% | -20.8% | BCO 99% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 18.6% | 18.6% | -23.9% | PBI 198% · TILE 147% · HNI 41% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -33.6% | 31.8% | -33.5% | GEO 237% · CLH 178% · RSG 92% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | -4.3% | 19.2% | -36.1% | LTM 3065% · UAL 110% · DAL 101% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -29.1% | 57.5% | -36.5% | UBER 47% · CAR -36% · LYFT -65% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -26.9% | -18.3% | -40.1% | FDX 77% · EXPD 69% · CHRW 59% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 19.4% | -3.5% | -41.0% | ADP 56% · PAYX 11% · FA 10% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -70.5% | -69.8% | -83.6% | JOBY -47% |
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|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 183.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| Rev LTM | 8,151 |
| Op Inc LTM | 899 |
| FCF LTM | 844 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 384 |
| CFO LTM | 1,393 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,248 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.9 |
| P/EBIT | 27.3 |
| P/E | 44.1 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $182.70 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 37.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/24/1991 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $186.53 | $201.17 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -2.1% | -9.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.7% | 37.7% |
| Downside Capture | 169.41 | 107.25 |
| Upside Capture | 17.56 | 122.35 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 20.4% | 31.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.67 | 1.14 | 0.50 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| Up Beta | 1.17 | 1.05 | 0.45 | 0.78 | 0.53 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 0.98 | -0.30 | -0.08 | 0.49 | 1.04 | 0.82 |
| Up Capture | -2% | 60% | 10% | 65% | 129% | 123% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 27 | 64 | 134 | 387 |
| Down Capture | 197% | 253% | 142% | 136% | 108% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 62 | 118 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ODFL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 30.5% | 37.7% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 8.7% | 17.2% | 0.31 | 45.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 12.7% | 0.80 | 31.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.8% | 28.5% | -0.11 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.1% | 20.7% | 1.91 | -20.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.3% | 13.9% | 0.06 | 35.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.8% | 43.5% | -0.54 | 6.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ODFL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 4.4% | 36.9% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 11.5% | 17.6% | 0.49 | 60.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 54.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 45.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.7% | 51.7% | 0.29 | 21.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ODFL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 23.4% | 33.3% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 20.1% | 0.57 | 61.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 58.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 42.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.4% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 12.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -1.5% | -3.1% | -11.9% |
| 4/29/2026 | -5.6% | -11.6% | -0.4% |
| 2/4/2026 | 9.9% | 2.5% | 11.2% |
| 10/29/2025 | 0.0% | 3.9% | -0.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.7% | -9.2% | -5.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.8% | -1.6% | 8.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | -3.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | -5.5% | 0.9% | 7.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 16 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -3.1% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.8% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -17.1% | -21.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -1.5% | -3.1% | -11.9% |
| 4/29/2026 | -5.6% | -11.6% | -0.4% |
| 2/4/2026 | 9.9% | 2.5% | 11.2% |
| 10/29/2025 | 0.0% | 3.9% | -0.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.7% | -9.2% | -5.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.8% | -1.6% | 8.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | -3.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | -5.5% | 0.9% | 7.4% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% |
| 4/24/2024 | -11.0% | -17.1% | -21.3% |
| 1/31/2024 | -1.2% | 7.5% | 11.8% |
| 10/25/2023 | -3.9% | -2.4% | 4.6% |
| 7/26/2023 | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 4/26/2023 | -10.0% | -7.0% | -11.5% |
| 2/1/2023 | 10.3% | 9.7% | 6.6% |
| 10/26/2022 | 0.2% | -0.4% | 8.4% |
| 7/27/2022 | 0.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | -0.0% | 3.5% | -7.6% |
| 2/2/2022 | 5.9% | 1.4% | 6.1% |
| 10/27/2021 | -0.6% | 6.5% | 10.2% |
| 7/28/2021 | -0.1% | 5.6% | 10.3% |
| 4/22/2021 | 1.6% | 4.3% | 7.3% |
| 2/4/2021 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 11.3% |
| 10/27/2020 | -4.4% | -2.3% | 2.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 16 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -3.1% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.8% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -17.1% | -21.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/30/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Real Estate and Service Center Expansion Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Tractors and Trailers Expenditures | Reported | 155.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Information Technology and Other Assets Expenditures | Reported | 45.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 380.00 Mil | 43.4% | Raised | Guidance: 265.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 265.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 265.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.29 | ||||||
| 2026 Real Estate and Service Center Expansion | Reported | 125.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Tractors and Trailers | Reported | 95.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Information Technology and Other Assets | Reported | 45.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 265.00 Mil | -41.1% | Lower New | Actual: 450.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 450.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 450.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Overbey, Cecil E JR | SVP - Strategic Development | Direct | Sell | 8262026 | 198.39 | 19,952 | 3,958,277 | 4,512,579 | Form |
| 2 | Gantt, Greg C | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 191.52 | 22,107 | 4,233,826 | 16,958,860 | Form | |
| 3 | Kelley, Christopher James | SVP - Operations | 401(k) plan | Sell | 3172026 | 200.43 | 80 | 16,034 | 840,403 | Form |
| 4 | Congdon, Earl E | Chair Emeritus & Sr. Advisor | Earl E. Congdon Trust - 1990 | Sell | 2272026 | 196.13 | 25,000 | 4,903,174 | 424,048,629 | Form |
| 5 | Congdon, David S | Executive Chairman | David S. Congdon Revocable Trust Dated 12/3/91 | Sell | 2232026 | 194.77 | 52,000 | 10,127,840 | 138,829,314 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Overbey, Cecil E JR | SVP - Strategic Development | Direct | Sell | 8262026 | 198.39 | 19,952 | 3,958,277 | 4,512,579 | Form |
| 2 | Gantt, Greg C | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 191.52 | 22,107 | 4,233,826 | 16,958,860 | Form | |
| 3 | Kelley, Christopher James | SVP - Operations | 401(k) plan | Sell | 3172026 | 200.43 | 80 | 16,034 | 840,403 | Form |
| 4 | Congdon, Earl E | Chair Emeritus & Sr. Advisor | Earl E. Congdon Trust - 1990 | Sell | 2272026 | 196.13 | 25,000 | 4,903,174 | 424,048,629 | Form |
| 5 | Congdon, David S | Executive Chairman | David S. Congdon Revocable Trust Dated 12/3/91 | Sell | 2232026 | 194.77 | 52,000 | 10,127,840 | 138,829,314 | Form |
| 6 | Gabosch, Bradley R | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 194.27 | 3,134 | 608,842 | 2,190,977 | Form | |
| 7 | Gantt, Greg C | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 196.43 | 12,024 | 2,361,874 | 21,736,551 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 26, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $73.5 Mil | 9.4% | 34 | TRIM -38.4% | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $22.3 Mil | 4.6% | 22 | TRIM -5.1% | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $36.0 Mil | 2.7% | 50 | TRIM -5.4% | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $25.8 Mil | 1.8% | 49 | TRIM -36.8% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $9.6 Mil | 1.5% | 41 | ADD +16.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $86.1 Mil | 5.0% | 33 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $73.5 Mil | 9.4% | 34 | TRIM -38.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $25.8 Mil | 1.8% | 49 | TRIM -36.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $36.0 Mil | 2.7% | 50 | TRIM -5.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $22.3 Mil | 4.6% | 22 | TRIM -5.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $73.5 Mil | 9.4% | 34 | TRIM -38.4% | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $36.0 Mil | 2.7% | 50 | TRIM -5.4% | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $25.8 Mil | 1.8% | 49 | TRIM -36.8% | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $22.3 Mil | 4.6% | 22 | TRIM -5.1% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $9.6 Mil | 1.5% | 41 | ADD +16.1% | 13F |
Old Dominion Freight Line — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Cargo Ground Transportation Resources |
| Transport Topics |
| Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ) |
| FreightWaves |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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