Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $233.59 | Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $233.59Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -17% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 86% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 10% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 65x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. | Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -17% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 86% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 65x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Nexstar Media Group reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) for Q4 2025 was $5.63, a 52.16% surprise over the forecast of $3.70. Revenue also surpassed expectations at $1.29 billion, exceeding the forecast of $1.25 billion. This positive performance was driven partly by robust non-political advertising growth of 4.5%, offsetting some of the year-over-year revenue decline caused by reduced political advertising.
2. The company provided optimistic guidance for 2026, projecting increased profitability and strategic growth in key areas. Nexstar anticipates standalone adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. Management expects digital revenue to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026 and projects a 30% reduction in losses for The CW network, with profitability expected by the fourth quarter of 2026. Furthermore, renewed distribution agreements covering over 60% of Nexstar's subscriber base are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.6% change in NXST stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 481.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 190.62 | 233.61 | 22.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,148 | 4,950 | -3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.0% | 2.2% | -78.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 65.0 | 481.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 30 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | 22.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | -0.8% | 25.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.2% change in NXST stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 578.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 200.98 | 233.61 | 16.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,316 | 4,950 | -6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.9% | 2.2% | -81.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.6 | 65.0 | 578.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 30 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | 16.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 20.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 3.1% | 31.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.3% change in NXST stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 829.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 163.01 | 233.61 | 43.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,406 | 4,950 | -8.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.4% | 2.2% | -83.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.0 | 65.0 | 829.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 30 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | 43.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 49.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 13.2% | 53.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.1% change in NXST stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 916.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 165.55 | 233.61 | 41.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,211 | 4,950 | -5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.6% | 2.2% | -88.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.4 | 65.0 | 916.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 38 | 30 | 23.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | 41.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 40.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | 120.2% | 41.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXST Return | 39% | 20% | -8% | 5% | 34% | 22% | 166% |
| Peers Return | 8% | -21% | -14% | 11% | 60% | -4% | 24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXST Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 33% | 38% | 53% | 57% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXST Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | -22% | -2% | -7% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -28% | -29% | -27% | -14% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FOXA, WBD, SBGI, TGNA, GTN. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 183.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2896.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,563 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to FOXA, WBD, SBGI, TGNA, GTN
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Nexstar Media (NXST)
AI Analysis | Feedback
It's like the Marriott or Hilton of local broadcast TV stations, operating hundreds of network affiliates across the U.S.
Think of it as the McDonald's of local TV stations, managing hundreds of local broadcast affiliates for major networks like ABC, NBC, and CBS.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Local Television Broadcasting: Operates and programs a large portfolio of local television stations, delivering free programming to viewing audiences.
- Digital Media Services: Provides interactive community websites and various digital media services that complement its broadcast operations.
- Advertising Services: Offers video and display advertising platforms delivered through its own and third-party websites and mobile applications.
- National Cable Network: Owns and operates a national general entertainment cable network, WGN America (now NewsNation).
- Broadcast Station Services: Provides sales, programming, and other operational services to independent third-party owned television stations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) primarily sells its services and advertising inventory to other companies rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Advertisers: Businesses and organizations that purchase video and display advertising platforms to reach local and national audiences through Nexstar's television stations, websites, and mobile applications.
- Cable, Satellite, and Streaming TV Providers: Companies that carry Nexstar's national general entertainment cable network (WGN America/NewsNation) and its affiliated local television stations, paying carriage fees and retransmission consent fees.
- Independent Third-Party Television Stations: Other television stations that contract with Nexstar for various services, including sales, programming, and other operational support, as mentioned for the 37 power television stations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
- Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
- Fox Corporation (FOX)
- Paramount Global (PARA)
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threats for Nexstar Media are the accelerating trends of cord-cutting and the comprehensive shift in viewership and advertising spend towards Over-The-Top (OTT) streaming services and digital platforms. As consumers increasingly abandon traditional cable and satellite subscriptions and opt for a multitude of on-demand streaming options (both subscription-based and ad-supported), Nexstar's core revenue streams—retransmission fees from cable/satellite providers and advertising dollars for its broadcast stations and national cable network (WGN America)—are directly undermined. Concurrently, the proliferation of digital advertising platforms (e.g., Google, Meta, Amazon) offering highly targeted and measurable ad solutions draws significant advertising expenditure away from traditional linear television, further pressuring Nexstar's financial performance.
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nullLatest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Nexstar Media Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| With Nexstar Media Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| NXST's 11% One Week Pop Begs The Question: Is IBKR Better Instead? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Nexstar Media Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than NXST Stock: Pay Less Than Nexstar Media To Get More From CALM, PTCT | 08/12/2025 | |
| NXST Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 08/12/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NXST.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.7% |
| 02132026 | TRIP | Tripadvisor | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 02062026 | OMC | Omnicom | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.1% | 22.1% | -3.7% |
| 02062026 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.6% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 01302026 | RBLX | Roblox | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -7.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,060 |
| Op Inc LTM | 653 |
| FCF LTM | 513 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 691 |
| CFO LTM | 608 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 805 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -9.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.9 |
| P/E | 14.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 50.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $233.61 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/25/2003 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $224.13 | $197.02 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.2% | 18.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.2% | 33.2% |
| Downside Capture | -6.46 | 56.00 |
| Upside Capture | 86.21 | 82.05 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.1% | 51.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.29 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Up Beta | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.96 |
| Down Beta | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.70 | 0.89 | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Up Capture | 174% | 144% | 139% | 49% | 83% | 62% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 31 | 63 | 133 | 389 |
| Down Capture | -149% | -65% | -48% | -8% | 60% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 30 | 61 | 118 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | 43.5% | 33.2% | 1.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 19.3% | 18.4% | 0.82 | 54.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 51.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | -3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 17.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 47.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 14.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | 6.5% | 33.5% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 10.6% | 20.7% | 0.42 | 43.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 43.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 16.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 40.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 12.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | 17.1% | 39.9% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.4% | 22.4% | 0.51 | 52.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 55.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | -1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 25.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 49.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 10.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.9% | 5.6% | |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.6% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.9% | -9.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.9% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | 6.9% | 4.5% | -6.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.3% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 32.1% | 34.6% | 45.2% |
| Max Negative | -4.9% | -11.3% | -22.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 165.25 | 510 | 84,277 | 1,359,839 | Form |
| 2 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 165.25 | 507 | 83,782 | 4,102,487 | Form |
| 3 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 165.25 | 610 | 100,802 | 4,233,034 | Form |
| 4 | Morgan, Rachel | EVP General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 165.25 | 329 | 54,367 | 350,660 | Form |
| 5 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 165.25 | 889 | 146,907 | 1,024,713 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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