Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (11/8/2025): $190.77 | Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (11/8/2025): $190.77Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.5%, FCF Yield is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 107% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.5%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 107% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NXST Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXST Return | -4% | 39% | 20% | -8% | 5% | 24% | 93% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 5% | -21% | -7% | 3% | -24% | -27% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXST Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 38% | 34% | 50% | 40% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXST Max Drawdown | -60% | -1% | 0% | -22% | -2% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -10% | -31% | -28% | -24% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, ANGH. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 183.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2896.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1563 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, ANGH
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Nexstar Media Earnings Notes | |||
| Nexstar Media Stock Fell 8.0% in a Month, What Now? | Return | ||
| NXST's 11% One Week Pop Begs The Question: Is IBKR Better Instead? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does NXST Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than NXST Stock: Pay Less Than Nexstar Media To Get More From CALM, PTCT | |||
| NXST Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | August 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NXST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -16.6% | -16.6% | -16.6% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -26.3% | -26.3% | -26.3% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.9% | -27.9% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.8% | -16.8% | -17.9% |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.9% | -12.9% | -17.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -16.6% | -16.6% | -16.6% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -26.3% | -26.3% | -26.3% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.9% | -27.9% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.8% | -16.8% | -17.9% |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.9% | -12.9% | -17.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nexstar Media
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,963 |
| Op Inc LTM | 432 |
| FCF LTM | 537 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 568 |
| CFO LTM | 619 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 638 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 4.3 |
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/CFO | 5.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.6% | ||
| 8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.9% | -9.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.9% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | 6.9% | 4.5% | -6.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.5% | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -4.2% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 32.1% | 34.6% | 45.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.0% | -11.3% | -44.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | McMillen Charles Thomas | 3282025 | Sell | 151.73 | 1,000 | 151,735 | 839,852 | Form | |
| 1 | ALFORD ANDREW | President, Broadcasting | 3272025 | Sell | 181.98 | 3,768 | 685,716 | 983,624 | Form |
| 2 | Jenkins Brett | See Remarks | 3192025 | Sell | 176.75 | 3,785 | 668,987 | 3,845,131 | Form |
| 3 | ZIMMER DANA | See Remarks | 3112025 | Sell | 177.68 | 4,846 | 861,021 | 318,397 | Form |
| 4 | WEITMAN GARY | See Remarks | 3072025 | Sell | 177.21 | 1,241 | 219,918 | 704,410 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |