Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (11/22/2025): $189.38 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (11/22/2025): $189.38Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 107% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 107% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NXST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Nexstar Media (NXST) stock moved by approximately 3% from July 31, 2025, to November 22, 2025:
1. Nexstar Media Group reported a significant miss on earnings per share (EPS) expectations for its third quarter of 2025 on November 6, 2025, posting an EPS of $2.14 against a forecasted $2.54. This 15.75% negative surprise contributed to a negative market reaction, with the stock dropping by 5.87% in pre-market trading.
2. The company's third-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.2 billion, while meeting expectations, marked a 12.3% year-over-year decline, primarily due to a significant decrease in political advertising revenue. Total advertising revenue fell by 23.5% year-over-year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXST Return | -4% | 39% | 20% | -8% | 5% | 23% | 91% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 5% | -21% | -0% | 7% | -11% | -5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXST Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 38% | 30% | 42% | 35% | 34% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXST Max Drawdown | -60% | -1% | 0% | -22% | -2% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -10% | -31% | -16% | -17% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, CAST. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 183.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2896.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1563 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, CAST
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Nexstar Media Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Nexstar Media Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| NXST's 11% One Week Pop Begs The Question: Is IBKR Better Instead? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Nexstar Media Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Better Bet Than NXST Stock: Pay Less Than Nexstar Media To Get More From CALM, PTCT | |||
| NXST Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | August 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NXST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -23.1% | -23.1% | -25.6% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -38.9% | -38.9% | -43.7% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.4% | -20.4% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.8% | -16.8% | -19.0% |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -19.8% | -19.8% | -20.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -23.1% | -23.1% | -25.6% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -38.9% | -38.9% | -43.7% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.4% | -20.4% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.8% | -16.8% | -19.0% |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -19.8% | -19.8% | -20.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nexstar Media
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 64.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,856 |
| Op Inc LTM | 417 |
| FCF LTM | 449 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 568 |
| CFO LTM | 602 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 638 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 4.3 |
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/CFO | 5.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.6% | -3.3% | |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.9% | -9.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.9% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | 6.9% | 4.5% | -6.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.5% | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -3.7% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 32.1% | 34.6% | 45.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.0% | -11.3% | -44.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | McMillen Charles Thomas | 3282025 | Sell | 151.73 | 1,000 | 151,735 | 839,852 | Form | |
| 1 | ALFORD ANDREW | President, Broadcasting | 3272025 | Sell | 181.98 | 3,768 | 685,716 | 983,624 | Form |
| 2 | Jenkins Brett | See Remarks | 3192025 | Sell | 176.75 | 3,785 | 668,987 | 3,845,131 | Form |
| 3 | ZIMMER DANA | See Remarks | 3112025 | Sell | 177.68 | 4,846 | 861,021 | 318,397 | Form |
| 4 | WEITMAN GARY | See Remarks | 3072025 | Sell | 177.21 | 1,241 | 219,918 | 704,410 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |