Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $194.03 | Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $194.03Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.2% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 21% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.2% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NXST Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
NXST Return | -4% | 39% | 20% | -8% | 5% | 27% | 96% |
Peers Return | 19% | 9% | -22% | -3% | 7% | -12% | -7% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
NXST Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 53% | 50% | 40% | 52% | 43% | 50% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
NXST Max Drawdown | -60% | -1% | 0% | -22% | -2% | -7% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -12% | -34% | -21% | -20% | -27% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, AC. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -37.2% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -64.7% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 183.4% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -96.7% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 2896.0% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1563 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Nexstar Media's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
Nexstar Media Earnings Notes | |||
NXST's 11% One Week Pop Begs The Question: Is IBKR Better Instead? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
How Does NXST Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
Better Bet Than NXST Stock: Pay Less Than Nexstar Media To Get More From CALM, PTCT | |||
NXST Dip Buy Analysis | |||
Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Nexstar Media (NXST) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Nexstar Media (NXST) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Nexstar Media vs. StoneCo: NXST stock's significantly lower valuation vs. STNE appears counterintuitive | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
ARTICLES | |||
Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | August 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NXST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.6% | -9.6% | -10.6% |
05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.1% | 7.1% | -2.3% | |
04302025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.2% | -19.2% | -27.4% |
04302025 | IAS | Integral Ad Science | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 44.1% | 44.1% | 0.0% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.6% | -9.6% | -10.6% |
05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.1% | 7.1% | -2.3% | |
04302025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.2% | -19.2% | -27.4% |
04302025 | IAS | Integral Ad Science | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 44.1% | 44.1% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nexstar Media
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 54.86 |
Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
Rev LTM | 2,963 |
Op Inc LTM | 421 |
FCF LTM | 455 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 568 |
CFO LTM | 619 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 658 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
Rev Chg Q | -3.2% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
Op Mgn LTM | 22.7% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 26.0% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
P/S | 1.1 |
P/EBIT | 4.3 |
P/E | 7.0 |
P/CFO | 4.2 |
Total Yield | 4.6% |
Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
D/E | 1.1 |
Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -5.7% |
3M Rtn | 12.3% |
6M Rtn | 13.1% |
12M Rtn | 2.7% |
3Y Rtn | 26.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
3M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
6M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
12M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -58.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Broadcast | 4,611 | 5,033 | 4,534 | 4,411 | 2,929 |
Other | 339 | 173 | 91 | 110 | |
Corporate (unallocated) | 10 | 9 | |||
Eliminations | -27 | -4 | |||
Corporate (unallocated) and Other | 114 | ||||
The CW Network, LLC (CW) | 0 | ||||
Total | 4,933 | 5,211 | 4,648 | 4,501 | 3,039 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Broadcast | 708 | 1,312 | 1,742 | 1,824 | 948 |
Corporate (unallocated) and Other | -153 | ||||
Depreciation and amortization expense | -589 | -427 | |||
Goodwill and other long-lived asset impairments | -23 | ||||
Miscellaneous, net | 11 | 0 | |||
Payments for broadcast rights | 167 | 56 | |||
Reimbursement from the Federal Communications Commission’s (“FCC”) related to station repack | 20 | 57 | |||
Corporate (unallocated) | -142 | ||||
Gain on disposal of stations and business units, net | 7 | ||||
Other | -293 | ||||
Total | 708 | 1,312 | 1,175 | 1,375 | 655 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
11/7/2024 | 2.9% | -9.4% | -6.2% |
8/8/2024 | -4.9% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
5/9/2024 | 6.9% | 4.5% | -6.0% |
2/28/2024 | 1.5% | -3.1% | 5.8% |
11/8/2023 | -2.7% | -0.7% | -5.1% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 15 | 15 | 17 |
# Negative | 9 | 9 | 7 |
Median Positive | 5.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% |
Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.2% | -6.2% |
Max Positive | 32.1% | 34.6% | 45.2% |
Max Negative | -6.0% | -11.3% | -44.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11032021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | McMillen Charles Thomas | 3282025 | Sell | 151.73 | 1,000 | 151,735 | 839,852 | Form | |
1 | ALFORD ANDREW | President, Broadcasting | 3272025 | Sell | 181.98 | 3,768 | 685,716 | 983,624 | Form |
2 | Jenkins Brett | See Remarks | 3192025 | Sell | 176.75 | 3,785 | 668,987 | 3,845,131 | Form |
3 | ZIMMER DANA | See Remarks | 3112025 | Sell | 177.68 | 4,846 | 861,021 | 318,397 | Form |
4 | WEITMAN GARY | See Remarks | 3072025 | Sell | 177.21 | 1,241 | 219,918 | 704,410 | Form |
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