Tearsheet

Nexstar Media (NXST)


Market Price (3/15/2026): $233.59 | Market Cap: $7.1 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting

Nexstar Media (NXST)


Market Price (3/15/2026): $233.59
Market Cap: $7.1 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Broadcasting

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -17%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 86%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 10%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 65x
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming.
  Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 10%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -17%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 86%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 65x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%
8 Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Nexstar Media (NXST) stock has gained about 25% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Nexstar Media Group reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) for Q4 2025 was $5.63, a 52.16% surprise over the forecast of $3.70. Revenue also surpassed expectations at $1.29 billion, exceeding the forecast of $1.25 billion. This positive performance was driven partly by robust non-political advertising growth of 4.5%, offsetting some of the year-over-year revenue decline caused by reduced political advertising.

2. The company provided optimistic guidance for 2026, projecting increased profitability and strategic growth in key areas. Nexstar anticipates standalone adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. Management expects digital revenue to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026 and projects a 30% reduction in losses for The CW network, with profitability expected by the fourth quarter of 2026. Furthermore, renewed distribution agreements covering over 60% of Nexstar's subscriber base are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2026.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 22.6% change in NXST stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 481.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020253132026Change
Stock Price ($)190.62233.6122.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,1484,950-3.8%
Net Income Margin (%)10.0%2.2%-78.1%
P/E Multiple11.265.0481.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)30300.0%
Cumulative Contribution22.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXST22.6% 
Market (SPY)-3.1%21.4%
Sector (XLC)-0.8%25.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 16.2% change in NXST stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 578.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120253132026Change
Stock Price ($)200.98233.6116.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,3164,950-6.9%
Net Income Margin (%)11.9%2.2%-81.5%
P/E Multiple9.665.0578.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3030-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution16.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXST16.2% 
Market (SPY)3.0%20.5%
Sector (XLC)3.1%31.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 43.3% change in NXST stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 829.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820253132026Change
Stock Price ($)163.01233.6143.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,4064,950-8.4%
Net Income Margin (%)13.4%2.2%-83.5%
P/E Multiple7.065.0829.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)31302.1%
Cumulative Contribution43.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXST43.3% 
Market (SPY)12.4%49.5%
Sector (XLC)13.2%53.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 41.1% change in NXST stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 916.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820233132026Change
Stock Price ($)165.55233.6141.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,2114,950-5.0%
Net Income Margin (%)18.6%2.2%-88.2%
P/E Multiple6.465.0916.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)383023.7%
Cumulative Contribution41.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXST41.1% 
Market (SPY)73.4%40.7%
Sector (XLC)120.2%41.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NXST Return39%20%-8%5%34%22%166%
Peers Return8%-21%-14%11%60%-4%24%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-1%80%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NXST Win Rate58%25%50%50%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate47%33%38%53%57%33% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NXST Max Drawdown-1%0%-22%-2%-7%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-10%-28%-29%-27%-14%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-2% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FOXA, WBD, SBGI, TGNA, GTN. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNXSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven861 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-64.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven183.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven337 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven70 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-96.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2896.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,563 days1,480 days

Compare to FOXA, WBD, SBGI, TGNA, GTN

In The Past

Nexstar Media's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Nexstar Media (NXST)

Nexstar Media Group, Inc., a television broadcasting and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States. The company offers free programming to television viewing audiences. As of December 31, 2020, it provided sales, programming, and other services through various local service agreements to 37 power television stations owned by independent third parties; and owned, operated, programmed, or provided sales and other services to 198 television stations. The company also offers video and display advertising platforms that are delivered locally or nationally through its own and various third party websites and mobile applications, as well as owns WGN America, a national general entertainment cable network. Its stations are affiliates of ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, MyNetworkTV, and other broadcast television networks. The company was formerly known as Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nexstar Media Group, Inc. in January 2017. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

AI Analysis | Feedback

It's like the Marriott or Hilton of local broadcast TV stations, operating hundreds of network affiliates across the U.S.

Think of it as the McDonald's of local TV stations, managing hundreds of local broadcast affiliates for major networks like ABC, NBC, and CBS.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Local Television Broadcasting: Operates and programs a large portfolio of local television stations, delivering free programming to viewing audiences.
  • Digital Media Services: Provides interactive community websites and various digital media services that complement its broadcast operations.
  • Advertising Services: Offers video and display advertising platforms delivered through its own and third-party websites and mobile applications.
  • National Cable Network: Owns and operates a national general entertainment cable network, WGN America (now NewsNation).
  • Broadcast Station Services: Provides sales, programming, and other operational services to independent third-party owned television stations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) primarily sells its services and advertising inventory to other companies rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers fall into the following categories:

  • Advertisers: Businesses and organizations that purchase video and display advertising platforms to reach local and national audiences through Nexstar's television stations, websites, and mobile applications.
  • Cable, Satellite, and Streaming TV Providers: Companies that carry Nexstar's national general entertainment cable network (WGN America/NewsNation) and its affiliated local television stations, paying carriage fees and retransmission consent fees.
  • Independent Third-Party Television Stations: Other television stations that contract with Nexstar for various services, including sales, programming, and other operational support, as mentioned for the 37 power television stations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
  • Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
  • Fox Corporation (FOX)
  • Paramount Global (PARA)
  • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The clear emerging threats for Nexstar Media are the accelerating trends of cord-cutting and the comprehensive shift in viewership and advertising spend towards Over-The-Top (OTT) streaming services and digital platforms. As consumers increasingly abandon traditional cable and satellite subscriptions and opt for a multitude of on-demand streaming options (both subscription-based and ad-supported), Nexstar's core revenue streams—retransmission fees from cable/satellite providers and advertising dollars for its broadcast stations and national cable network (WGN America)—are directly undermined. Concurrently, the proliferation of digital advertising platforms (e.g., Google, Meta, Amazon) offering highly targeted and measurable ad solutions draws significant advertising expenditure away from traditional linear television, further pressuring Nexstar's financial performance.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Better Bets vs. Nexstar Media (NXST)

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to NXST.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
YELP_2132026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02132026YELPYelpDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.2%6.2%-5.7%
TRIP_2132026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02132026TRIPTripadvisorDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.2%5.2%0.0%
OMC_2062026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02062026OMCOmnicomDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.1%22.1%-3.7%
MGNI_2062026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02062026MGNIMagniteDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
20.6%20.6%-0.8%
RBLX_1302026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01302026RBLXRobloxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.4%4.4%-7.9%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NXSTFOXAWBDSBGITGNAGTNMedian
NameNexstar .Fox Warner B.Sinclair Tegna Gray Med. 
Mkt Price233.6157.3927.1414.0920.304.6323.72
Mkt Cap7.124.867.31.03.30.55.2
Rev LTM4,95016,57837,2963,1692,7123,0954,060
Op Inc LTM8643,1551,309154443411653
FCF LTM7432,3103,088115283181513
FCF 3Y Avg8991,7734,55991483363691
CFO LTM8912,7294,319189326289608
CFO 3Y Avg1,0472,1425,724174533563805

Growth & Margins

NXSTFOXAWBDSBGITGNAGTNMedian
NameNexstar .Fox Warner B.Sinclair Tegna Gray Med. 
Rev Chg LTM-8.4%9.2%-5.1%-10.7%-12.6%-15.1%-9.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.4%5.1%4.1%-5.9%-5.7%-4.9%-3.2%
Rev Chg Q-13.3%2.0%-5.7%-16.7%-18.9%-24.2%-15.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.8%0.6%-1.5%-5.0%-5.7%-7.6%-4.4%
Op Mgn LTM17.5%19.0%3.5%4.9%16.3%13.3%14.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.8%18.6%0.5%3.2%20.8%16.9%17.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.9%-0.7%-0.2%-5.1%-4.5%-5.4%-3.7%
CFO/Rev LTM18.0%16.5%11.6%6.0%12.0%9.3%11.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.5%13.7%14.4%5.4%18.1%16.6%15.5%
FCF/Rev LTM15.0%13.9%8.3%3.6%10.4%5.8%9.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.6%11.4%11.5%2.9%16.4%10.6%11.4%

Valuation

NXSTFOXAWBDSBGITGNAGTNMedian
NameNexstar .Fox Warner B.Sinclair Tegna Gray Med. 
Mkt Cap7.124.867.31.03.30.55.2
P/S1.41.51.80.31.20.11.3
P/EBIT13.48.418.14.17.31.37.9
P/E65.013.192.6-8.814.9-5.414.0
P/CFO8.09.115.65.210.11.68.5
Total Yield4.7%8.8%1.1%-4.4%9.1%-11.2%2.9%
Dividend Yield3.2%1.2%0.0%7.0%2.5%7.1%2.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg16.9%7.9%14.5%9.8%16.3%92.3%15.4%
D/E0.90.30.54.60.812.60.8
Net D/E0.90.20.43.70.711.80.8

Returns

NXSTFOXAWBDSBGITGNAGTNMedian
NameNexstar .Fox Warner B.Sinclair Tegna Gray Med. 
1M Rtn-2.1%-5.6%-3.0%-5.0%-1.8%-1.9%-2.6%
3M Rtn15.6%-18.9%-9.5%-12.9%3.8%-10.3%-9.9%
6M Rtn14.9%-1.0%43.8%4.4%-2.3%-17.3%1.7%
12M Rtn43.8%13.5%174.4%4.8%19.9%19.8%19.8%
3Y Rtn58.5%81.2%93.2%-34.7%41.7%-40.5%50.1%
1M Excs Rtn0.3%-3.2%-0.7%-2.6%0.6%0.5%-0.2%
3M Excs Rtn16.3%-18.0%-6.5%-11.7%5.8%-7.5%-7.0%
6M Excs Rtn12.4%-4.7%65.0%1.6%-5.0%-20.3%-1.5%
12M Excs Rtn22.3%-10.3%139.4%-15.7%-3.3%1.7%-0.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-17.0%3.0%7.2%-104.4%-39.1%-116.2%-28.1%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Broadcast Segment5,134    
Other Segment317    
Corporate (unallocated)10    
Eliminations-54    
Total5,407    


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Broadcast Segment1,268    
Total1,268    


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$233.61 
Market Cap ($ Bil)7.1 
First Trading Date11/25/2003 
Distance from 52W High-7.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$224.13$197.02
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA4.2%18.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility33.2%33.2%
Downside Capture-6.4656.00
Upside Capture86.2182.05
Correlation (SPY)19.1%51.2%
NXST Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.290.440.510.470.860.93
Up Beta0.150.310.370.670.800.96
Down Beta0.590.540.700.891.191.03
Up Capture174%144%139%49%83%62%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days11213163133389
Down Capture-149%-65%-48%-8%60%95%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days10203061118362

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXST
NXST43.5%33.2%1.12-
Sector ETF (XLC)19.3%18.4%0.8254.4%
Equity (SPY)19.6%18.9%0.8151.2%
Gold (GLD)71.9%26.3%2.05-3.8%
Commodities (DBC)19.3%17.3%0.8917.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%16.3%0.1947.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-15.3%44.2%-0.2514.5%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXST
NXST6.5%33.5%0.28-
Sector ETF (XLC)10.6%20.7%0.4243.6%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.0%0.6143.7%
Gold (GLD)24.1%17.3%1.144.9%
Commodities (DBC)11.2%19.0%0.4716.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1640.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.3%56.7%0.3312.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXST
NXST17.1%39.9%0.56-
Sector ETF (XLC)9.4%22.4%0.5152.6%
Equity (SPY)14.5%17.9%0.7055.5%
Gold (GLD)14.4%15.6%0.77-1.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.4025.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2349.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.4%66.8%1.0710.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2272026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 2152026-17.8%
Average Daily Volume0.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity30.3 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares6.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/26/20265.9%5.6% 
11/6/2025-3.6%-3.3%0.8%
8/7/2025-1.3%12.3%12.4%
5/8/20255.4%12.0%9.6%
2/27/202511.1%15.9%22.7%
11/7/20242.9%-9.4%-6.2%
8/8/2024-4.9%-6.6%-5.1%
5/9/20246.9%4.5%-6.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151517
# Negative996
Median Positive5.4%9.8%9.2%
Median Negative-3.3%-3.3%-6.1%
Max Positive32.1%34.6%45.2%
Max Negative-4.9%-11.3%-22.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/08/202310-Q
03/31/202305/09/202310-Q
12/31/202202/28/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/05/202210-Q
03/31/202205/10/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Weitman, GarySee RemarksDirectSell6172025165.2551084,2771,359,839Form
2Russell, BlakeEVP, OperationsDirectSell6172025165.2550783,7824,102,487Form
3Jenkins, BrettSee RemarksDirectSell6172025165.25610100,8024,233,034Form
4Morgan, RachelEVP General CounselDirectSell6172025165.2532954,367350,660Form
5Zimmer, DanaSee RemarksDirectSell6172025165.25889146,9071,024,713Form