Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (9/25/2026): $161.55 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (9/25/2026): $161.55Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 15% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 234% Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. Key risksNXST key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with significant interest expenses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 234% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
| Key risksNXST key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with significant interest expenses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Nexstar Media (NXST) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Nexstar Media Group reported a significant Adjusted EPS miss in fiscal Q2 2026, falling short of analyst expectations.
The company announced its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, reporting an Adjusted EPS of $3.61, which substantially missed the consensus estimate of $5.98 by $2.37, or approximately 36.3% below expectations. This earnings miss occurred despite record quarterly net revenue of $1.99 billion, which topped Wall Street estimates and was largely driven by the TEGNA acquisition and strong political advertising.
2. Increased costs and ongoing litigation related to the TEGNA acquisition weighed on profitability and created operational inefficiencies.
While the TEGNA acquisition, which closed in March 2026, significantly boosted Nexstar's revenue, the associated costs contributed to the fiscal Q2 2026 EPS miss. The company also faces a "long legal fight" over TEGNA, with oral arguments set for November 17, 2026, and a trial on the merits expected in early July 2027. This legal overhang is estimated to result in approximately $100 million in lost operating efficiency.
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Nexstar Media (NXST) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Nexstar Media Group reported a significant Adjusted EPS miss in fiscal Q2 2026, falling short of analyst expectations.
The company announced its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, reporting an Adjusted EPS of $3.61, which substantially missed the consensus estimate of $5.98 by $2.37, or approximately 36.3% below expectations. This earnings miss occurred despite record quarterly net revenue of $1.99 billion, which topped Wall Street estimates and was largely driven by the TEGNA acquisition and strong political advertising.
2. Increased costs and ongoing litigation related to the TEGNA acquisition weighed on profitability and created operational inefficiencies.
While the TEGNA acquisition, which closed in March 2026, significantly boosted Nexstar's revenue, the associated costs contributed to the fiscal Q2 2026 EPS miss. The company also faces a "long legal fight" over TEGNA, with oral arguments set for November 17, 2026, and a trial on the merits expected in early July 2027. This legal overhang is estimated to result in approximately $100 million in lost operating efficiency.
3. A decline in non-political advertising revenue impacted overall financial performance.
Management indicated that non-political advertising faced pressure, declining in the mid-single digits during fiscal Q1 2026 and showing similar trends in fiscal Q2 2026. This downturn is attributed to factors such as political crowd-out, increased inventory in connected TV, and broader macroeconomic weaknesses. Additionally, income from equity method investments decreased due to declining advertising revenue from its 31% ownership in TV Food Network, falling from $11 million in fiscal Q2 2025 to $3 million in fiscal Q2 2026.
4. Rising interest expenses associated with acquisition-related debt impacted net income and free cash flow.
Nexstar's net interest expense in fiscal Q2 2026 increased by $93 million compared to fiscal Q2 2025, primarily due to the debt incurred to facilitate the TEGNA acquisition. This higher interest burden directly reduced the company's net income and affected its adjusted free cash flow, contributing to investor concerns about profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.6% change in NXST stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 176.67 | 161.53 | -8.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,112 | 5,876 | 14.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 3.2% | -0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.5 | 26.3 | -19.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | -8.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.7% | 19.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | -1.2% | 52.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.4% change in NXST stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 246.20 | 161.53 | -34.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,950 | 5,876 | 18.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 3.2% | 45.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 68.5 | 26.3 | -61.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | -34.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 20.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -2.9% | 35.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.1% change in NXST stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -73.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 197.12 | 161.53 | -18.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,316 | 5,876 | 10.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.9% | 3.2% | -73.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.4 | 26.3 | 180.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | -18.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.3% | 18.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | 3.6% | 33.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.8% change in NXST stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 255.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 144.51 | 161.53 | 11.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,253 | 5,876 | 11.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 3.2% | -76.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.4 | 26.3 | 255.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 31 | 16.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | 11.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.8% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | 74.1% | 41.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXST Return | 41% | 18% | -8% | 5% | 34% | -16% | 82% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -30% | -11% | 7% | 73% | -13% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXST Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 31% | 40% | 52% | 60% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXST Max Drawdown | -16% | -23% | -36% | -16% | -21% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -42% | -45% | -39% | -29% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FOXA, PARA, WBD, SBGI, GTN. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -6.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 219 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1723.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 996 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.1% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1996 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -6.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Nexstar Media (NXST)
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is a prominent television broadcasting and digital media company primarily focused on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations across the United States. The company owns, operates, or provides services to a vast network of local TV stations, many of which are affiliates of major broadcast networks such as ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, and MyNetworkTV. This extensive reach allows Nexstar to deliver local news, sports, and entertainment programming to communities nationwide, and it also extends its operational expertise by providing sales, programming, and other services to independent third-party stations.
The company's main products and services revolve around content delivery and advertising. Nexstar offers free television programming to viewing audiences through its numerous local broadcast stations. A significant part of its business involves generating revenue through video and display advertising platforms, which are delivered both locally via its television stations and nationally through its proprietary and partner websites and mobile applications. Additionally, Nexstar Media Group owns and operates WGN America, a national general entertainment cable network, further diversifying its content offerings and advertising avenues.
Nexstar Media serves a dual primary market. On one hand, it caters to the general U.S. television viewing audience by providing free, accessible broadcast programming. On the other, its services are geared towards advertisers—from local businesses to national brands—who seek to reach these audiences effectively across its various television and digital platforms. The company also acts as a key service provider for other station owners, contributing to the broader broadcast ecosystem.
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It's like the Marriott or Hilton of local broadcast TV stations, operating hundreds of network affiliates across the U.S.
Think of it as the McDonald's of local TV stations, managing hundreds of local broadcast affiliates for major networks like ABC, NBC, and CBS.
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- Local Television Broadcasting: Operates and programs a large portfolio of local television stations, delivering free programming to viewing audiences.
- Digital Media Services: Provides interactive community websites and various digital media services that complement its broadcast operations.
- Advertising Services: Offers video and display advertising platforms delivered through its own and third-party websites and mobile applications.
- National Cable Network: Owns and operates a national general entertainment cable network, WGN America (now NewsNation).
- Broadcast Station Services: Provides sales, programming, and other operational services to independent third-party owned television stations.
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Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) primarily sells its services and advertising inventory to other companies rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Advertisers: Businesses and organizations that purchase video and display advertising platforms to reach local and national audiences through Nexstar's television stations, websites, and mobile applications.
- Cable, Satellite, and Streaming TV Providers: Companies that carry Nexstar's national general entertainment cable network (WGN America/NewsNation) and its affiliated local television stations, paying carriage fees and retransmission consent fees.
- Independent Third-Party Television Stations: Other television stations that contract with Nexstar for various services, including sales, programming, and other operational support, as mentioned for the 37 power television stations.
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- The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
- Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
- Fox Corporation (FOX)
- Paramount Global (PARA)
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
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Perry A. Sook, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Perry A. Sook founded Nexstar Media Group in 1996 with the acquisition of a single local television station, WYOU in Scranton, Pennsylvania. He has over 37 years of experience in the television and radio broadcasting industries, encompassing ownership, mergers and acquisitions, management, sales, on-air talent, and news. Before founding Nexstar, Mr. Sook was a principal of Superior Communication Group, Inc., which was sold to Sinclair Broadcast Group in 1995. Prior to Superior, he served as President/CEO of Seaway Communication, Inc. Nexstar was initially backed by ABRY Partners.
Lee Ann Gliha, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Lee Ann Gliha was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in August 2021. She oversees all financial aspects of the company, including financial reporting, internal audit, investor relations, treasury, and capital markets functions, and plays a prominent role in strategic planning, business development, and mergers and acquisitions. From April 2016 to July 2021, Ms. Gliha was a Managing Director at Jefferies LLC, where she oversaw transactions exceeding $90 billion, primarily in the technology, media, and telecommunications sector. Before Jefferies, she worked as an investment banker at Houlihan Lokey from 2008 to 2016, specializing in media and out-of-home entertainment. Ms. Gliha also held positions at UBS Investment Bank and Banc of America Securities and previously served as Executive Vice President of Corporate Finance at Live Nation, Inc. from 2006 to 2008, where she was responsible for M&A, financing, and investor relations.
Michael Biard, President and Chief Operating Officer
Michael Biard serves as President and Chief Operating Officer of Nexstar Media Group. He participates in discussions about Nexstar Media Group's strategy and operations.
Rachel Morgan, EVP/General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Rachel Morgan is the Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for Nexstar Media Group.
Brett Jenkins, EVP/Chief Technology & Digital Officer
Brett Jenkins is the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology & Digital Officer. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing Nexstar's digital technology and operations, including its local websites, mobile applications, and the BestReviews platform.
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The clear emerging threats for Nexstar Media are the accelerating trends of cord-cutting and the comprehensive shift in viewership and advertising spend towards Over-The-Top (OTT) streaming services and digital platforms. As consumers increasingly abandon traditional cable and satellite subscriptions and opt for a multitude of on-demand streaming options (both subscription-based and ad-supported), Nexstar's core revenue streams—retransmission fees from cable/satellite providers and advertising dollars for its broadcast stations and national cable network (WGN America)—are directly undermined. Concurrently, the proliferation of digital advertising platforms (e.g., Google, Meta, Amazon) offering highly targeted and measurable ad solutions draws significant advertising expenditure away from traditional linear television, further pressuring Nexstar's financial performance.
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Share Repurchases
- Nexstar's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program in July 2024, authorizing up to $1.5 billion in repurchases, building upon an existing program that had $496 million remaining as of May 8, 2024.
- In 2024, Nexstar returned $601 million to shareholders through share repurchases, contributing to a nearly 9% reduction in shares outstanding during that year.
- The company repurchased 441,164 shares for $75 million in the first quarter of 2025 and 311,998 shares for $50 million in the second quarter of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2022, Nexstar acquired a 75% controlling stake in The CW Network, subsequently increasing its ownership to 77.1% in December 2024.
- Nexstar announced the acquisition of WBNX-TV/TV55 in Cleveland, Ohio, in October 2024, which commenced operations as a CW affiliate on September 1, 2025, creating a duopoly in the market.
- In August 2025, Nexstar entered a definitive agreement to acquire TEGNA Inc. for $6.2 billion, an all-cash transaction inclusive of TEGNA's net debt and transaction expenses, with the closing anticipated by the second half of 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2024 were $35 million.
- In the second quarter of 2025, capital expenditures decreased to $29 million from $37 million in the comparable prior-year quarter, mainly due to the timing of projects and lower overall capital expenditures in non-election years.
- For the fourth quarter of 2025, capital expenditures increased to $54 million, up from $35 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Peer Outperformance in Broadcasting
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | Nexstar Media | 4.0% | 26.3x | -15.9% | 32.9% | 20.6% | — |
| FOXA | Fox | 5.1% | 15.9x | 7.1% | 111.7% | 73.1% | +52pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -8.3% | 24.2% | 34.4% | ECHO 248% · TMUS 34% · SHEN -59% |
| Publishing | 5 | 11.2% | 27.5% | 18.2% | NYT 29% · NWSA 22% · SCHL 18% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 23 | -5.9% | 6.7% | -23.4% | IQST 1508% · TIGO 283% · GSAT 227% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 25 | 5.5% | 62.2% | -37.3% | IMAX 209% · MSGS 119% · BATRA 117% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | 21.4% | 20.6% | -46.9% | IRDM 22% · UNIT -43% · LUMN -51% |
| Advertising | 20 | -18.7% | -5.8% | -65.4% | APP 293% · EVC 40% · OMC 20% |
| Broadcasting ← | 15 | -14.9% | -19.2% | -67.4% | FOXA 73% · WBD 22% · NXST 21% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 33 | -34.6% | -25.0% | -69.8% | GOOGL 143% · META 122% · SPOT 122% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -50.0% | -52.6% | -86.8% | TTWO 38% · RBLX -41% · PINS -65% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Nexstar Media Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| With Nexstar Media Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| NXST's 11% One Week Pop Begs The Question: Is IBKR Better Instead? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Nexstar Media Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than NXST Stock: Pay Less Than Nexstar Media To Get More From CALM, PTCT | 08/12/2025 | |
| NXST Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 08/12/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 4,566 |
| Op Inc LTM | 756 |
| FCF LTM | 444 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 591 |
| CFO LTM | 572 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 734 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -13.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcast Segment | 4,657 | 5,134 | 4,611 | 5,033 | 4,534 |
| Other Segment | 346 | 317 | 339 | 173 | |
| Corporate (unallocated) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | |
| Eliminations | -64 | -54 | -27 | -4 | |
| Corporate (unallocated) and Other | 114 | ||||
| The CW Network, LLC (CW) | 0 | ||||
| Total | 4,949 | 5,407 | 4,933 | 5,211 | 4,648 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcast Segment | 849 | 1,268 | 708 | 1,312 | 1,742 |
| Corporate (unallocated) and Other | -153 | ||||
| Depreciation and amortization expense | -589 | ||||
| Goodwill and other long-lived asset impairments | -23 | ||||
| Miscellaneous | 11 | ||||
| Payments for broadcast rights | 167 | ||||
| Reimbursement from the Federal Communications Commission’s (“FCC”) related to station repack | 20 | ||||
| Total | 849 | 1,268 | 708 | 1,312 | 1,175 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcast Segment | 11,203 | 11,635 | 12,039 | 12,353 | 12,919 |
| Corporate (unallocated) and Other | 577 | ||||
| The CW Network, LLC (CW) | 298 | ||||
| Corporate (unallocated) | 547 | 1,226 | 1,052 | ||
| Other Segment | 497 | 1,071 | |||
| Total | 12,078 | 12,679 | 13,264 | 13,404 | 13,990 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $161.53 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/25/2003 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -35.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $180.08 | $194.69 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -10.3% | -17.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.7% | 36.0% |
| Downside Capture | 134.47 | 87.61 |
| Upside Capture | 131.84 | 51.45 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 23.9% | 18.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.31 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 0.83 |
| Up Beta | 0.93 | -0.64 | 0.50 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 0.25 | -0.96 | -0.10 | 0.01 | 0.47 | 0.91 |
| Up Capture | 105% | 106% | 49% | 31% | 34% | 46% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 60 | 123 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 265% | 120% | 43% | 123% | 75% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 66 | 127 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | -17.1% | 35.9% | -0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -2.9% | 15.9% | -0.38 | 33.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.7% | 13.0% | 0.92 | 18.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.1% | 29.3% | 0.42 | 0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.1% | 20.7% | 1.71 | -12.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 13.7% | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.8% | 44.8% | -0.51 | 7.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | 4.9% | 35.0% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.4% | 21.1% | 0.26 | 44.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 43.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.0% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.6% | 0.42 | 10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.9% | -0.07 | 40.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.0% | 52.6% | 0.41 | 18.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | 14.8% | 39.9% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.5% | 22.1% | 0.47 | 51.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 53.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | -0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 20.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 48.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.7% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -1.1% | -2.6% | -5.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.4% | -0.6% | -6.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -5.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.6% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.9% | -9.4% | -6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -3.1% | -5.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.1% | 17.6% | 36.3% |
| Max Negative | -4.9% | -11.3% | -22.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -1.1% | -2.6% | -5.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.4% | -0.6% | -6.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -5.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.6% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.9% | -9.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.9% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | 6.9% | 4.5% | -6.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.5% | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| 11/8/2023 | -2.7% | -0.7% | -5.1% |
| 8/8/2023 | -4.0% | -11.3% | -22.9% |
| 5/9/2023 | -1.1% | -1.9% | 1.2% |
| 2/28/2023 | -3.3% | -6.7% | -13.7% |
| 11/8/2022 | 8.0% | 9.2% | 18.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | 2.5% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| 5/10/2022 | 5.1% | 13.3% | 13.9% |
| 2/22/2022 | 0.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 9.7% | -5.0% |
| 8/4/2021 | -0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| 5/4/2021 | 0.5% | -0.2% | 2.0% |
| 2/23/2021 | 9.2% | 12.2% | 16.2% |
| 11/5/2020 | 5.4% | 17.6% | 36.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -3.1% | -5.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.1% | 17.6% | 36.3% |
| Max Negative | -4.9% | -11.3% | -22.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/02/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/12/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/23/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 165.69 | 2,823 | 467,743 | 1,942,881 | Form |
| 2 | Aulestia, Bernadette S | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 186.80 | 300 | 56,040 | 818,744 | Form | |
| 3 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 185.82 | 2,465 | 458,047 | 3,881,786 | Form |
| 4 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 187.46 | 4,008 | 751,352 | 335,934 | Form |
| 5 | Sook, Perry A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 6292026 | 162.26 | 12,235 | 1,985,309 | 145,883,105 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 165.69 | 2,823 | 467,743 | 1,942,881 | Form |
| 2 | Aulestia, Bernadette S | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 186.80 | 300 | 56,040 | 818,744 | Form | |
| 3 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 185.82 | 2,465 | 458,047 | 3,881,786 | Form |
| 4 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 187.46 | 4,008 | 751,352 | 335,934 | Form |
| 5 | Sook, Perry A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 6292026 | 162.26 | 12,235 | 1,985,309 | 145,883,105 | Form |
| 6 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 261 | 44,581 | 1,189,350 | Form |
| 7 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 261 | 44,581 | 4,833,240 | Form |
| 8 | Knapp, Lindsey | EVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 93 | 15,885 | 196,773 | Form |
| 9 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 301 | 51,414 | 4,918,986 | Form |
| 10 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 876 | 149,630 | 990,698 | Form |
| 11 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 840 | 143,480 | 2,464,788 | Form |
| 12 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 746 | 127,424 | 2,485,115 | Form |
| 13 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 373 | 63,712 | 3,429,011 | Form |
| 14 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 174.21 | 194 | 33,796 | 1,144,182 | Form |
| 15 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 174.21 | 1,227 | 213,750 | 2,979,785 | Form |
| 16 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 239 | 42,164 | 4,922,211 | Form |
| 17 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 284 | 50,102 | 5,017,829 | Form |
| 18 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 752 | 132,666 | 3,441,896 | Form |
| 19 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 915 | 161,422 | 1,012,281 | Form |
| 20 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 875 | 154,365 | 2,528,408 | Form |
| 21 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 778 | 137,252 | 2,532,819 | Form |
| 22 | McMillen, Charles Thomas | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 180.00 | 1,000 | 180,000 | 1,018,440 | Form | |
| 23 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 319 | 58,190 | 1,096,681 | Form |
| 24 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 319 | 58,190 | 4,996,355 | Form |
| 25 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 397 | 72,419 | 5,103,433 | Form |
| 26 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 433 | 78,986 | 688,983 | Form |
| 27 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 414 | 75,520 | 2,249,363 | Form |
| 28 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 368 | 67,129 | 2,236,229 | Form |
| 29 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 258 | 47,063 | 3,354,070 | Form |
| 30 | Knapp, Lindsey | EVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 184.27 | 290 | 53,438 | 160,315 | Form |
| 31 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 185.33 | 605 | 112,125 | 2,166,322 | Form |
| 32 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 184 | 34,467 | 939,979 | Form |
| 33 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 185 | 34,654 | 4,944,536 | Form |
| 34 | Morgan, Rachel | EVP General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 185 | 34,654 | 105,837 | Form |
| 35 | Lanzano, Dan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 247 | 46,268 | 80,736 | Form |
| 36 | Knapp, Lindsey | EVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 92 | 17,234 | 217,293 | Form |
| 37 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 229 | 42,897 | 5,069,104 | Form |
| 38 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 465 | 87,104 | 612,916 | Form |
| 39 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 445 | 83,358 | 2,211,704 | Form |
| 40 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 395 | 73,992 | 2,302,929 | Form |
| 41 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 742 | 138,992 | 3,369,537 | Form |
| 42 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 989 | 185,261 | 2,851,781 | Form |
| 43 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 196.00 | 5,000 | 980,000 | 2,205,392 | Form |
| 44 | Lanzano, Dan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 196.37 | 237 | Form | ||
| 45 | Weaver, Robert S | EVP, Government Relations | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 1,101 | 240,604 | 409,092 | Form |
| 46 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 333 | 72,771 | 1,247,161 | Form |
| 47 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 333 | 72,771 | 5,644,895 | Form |
| 48 | Morgan, Rachel | EVP General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 333 | 72,771 | 683,349 | Form |
| 49 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 414 | 90,472 | 5,799,834 | Form |
| 50 | Lanzano, Dan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 138 | 30,157 | 51,792 | Form |
| 51 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 839 | 183,348 | 598,122 | Form |
| 52 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 804 | 175,700 | 3,551,579 | Form |
| 53 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 623 | 136,145 | 2,554,418 | Form |
| 54 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 1,337 | 292,177 | 3,683,353 | Form |
| 55 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 1,802 | 393,794 | 2,996,727 | Form |
| 56 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 226.00 | 3,527 | 797,102 | 1,365,040 | Form |
| 57 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 225.50 | 4,409 | 994,230 | 806,388 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 25, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Financial Group Inc | $41.1 Mil | 15.3% | 87 | Hold | 13F |
| Engine Capital Management, LP | $36.0 Mil | 4.3% | 26 | Hold | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $38.6 Mil | 3.4% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $31.9 Mil | 3.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $45.2 Mil | 1.8% | 25 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $45.2 Mil | 1.8% | 25 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| American Financial Group Inc | $41.1 Mil | 15.3% | 87 | Hold | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $38.6 Mil | 3.4% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Engine Capital Management, LP | $36.0 Mil | 4.3% | 26 | Hold | 13F |
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $31.9 Mil | 3.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
NXST Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Nexstar's record cash flow is funding aggressive debt reduction, with $409 million repaid last quarter. This deleveraging, combined with a strong 2026 political ad cycle, provides a clear path to manage the high debt from the TEGNA acquisition. The primary uncertainty remains the legal injunction, which currently blocks operational synergies.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: a mix of structurally protected, recurring-style revenue (Distribution) and cyclical, economically sensitive transactional revenue (Advertising).Revenue = (Number of Subscribers x Fee per Subscriber) + (Ad Inventory x Ad Rate x Political Cycle Multiplier) Maximizing high-margin political advertising revenue during even-year election cycles and negotiating higher per-subscriber fees in multi-year distribution contracts to offset subscriber declines.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; record cash flow is enabling rapid debt repayment, creating a visible path to de-risking the company.
- Adjusted free cash flow more than doubled to $238 million for Q2 2026.
- The company repaid $409 million in debt during the second quarter.
- Political advertising revenue was $147 million for Q2 2026, a strong cyclical tailwind.
- Distribution revenue grew 1.3% in Q2, providing a stable base from contractual fees.
PRIMARY RISK
Net debt of 7.58 times EBITDA and interest coverage of only 1.4x create significant financial fragility. A permanent block on TEGNA integration would eliminate expected synergies, making this debt load potentially unmanageable if core business trends weaken further, as seen in the 5.8% decline in non-political ads.
- Net debt is $11.6 billion, which is 7.58 times trailing-twelve-month EBITDA.
- Interest coverage is critically low at 1.4 times.
- A preliminary injunction prohibits integration of TEGNA, delaying synergies.
- The bench trial for the TEGNA lawsuit is not scheduled to begin until July 6, 2027.
- Non-political advertising revenue declined 5.8% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Distribution Revenue Growth | +1.3% year-over-year for Q2 2026 (on a combined basis) - Turning around | The trend shows a slow recovery from a slight decline to low single-digit growth. Management attributes growth to increased rates and vMVPD subscriber growth, which are partially offset by traditional MVPD subscriber attrition. |
| Non-Political (Core) Advertising Revenue Growth | -5.8% year-over-year for Q2 2026 (on a combined basis) - Decelerating | The trend has weakened significantly, moving from modest growth to a mid-single-digit decline. Management cites political ad crowd-out, competitive pressures, and economic softness as primary drivers for the decline. |
| Political Advertising Revenue | $147 million (Q2 2026) | Indicates the strength of political ad spending during election cycles, which is a major cyclical driver of high-margin revenue. Performance is typically compared to the prior two-year election cycle. |
| NewsNation Viewership Growth | 44% growth in total viewers (June 2026 vs June 2025) | Measures the audience growth of the company's national news network, a key strategic initiative. Strong growth indicates the network is gaining traction against established competitors and can drive higher advertising revenue. |
| The CW Profitability | On track to achieve profitability in Q4 2026 (as of August 2026 earnings call) | Market rewards Achieving stated profitability target.. Tracks the turnaround of the acquired CW network. Achieving profitability would validate the company's strategy of shifting programming towards sports and unscripted content to reduce costs and improve financial performance. |
Deleveraging Power vs. Legal Drag
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the $238 million in quarterly free cash flow and $409 million debt repayment, believing the company can deleverage its way out of the high-risk valuation created by the TEGNA legal overhang.
CORE TENSION
Can strong political ad revenue and $409M quarterly debt paydowns overcome the drag from a 7.58x leverage ratio and a legally-blocked TEGNA integration?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company is executing on its deleveraging plan, and the market rewarded the Q2 results with a 2.0% positive stock reaction.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the 7.58x net leverage and 1.4x interest coverage as unsustainable, especially with the TEGNA trial not starting until July 2027, delaying critical synergies needed to support the debt.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in the fourth quarter of 2026 | Adverse Ruling on TEGNA Injunction Appeal Watch: A ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit regarding the preliminary injunction. |
October 1, 2026 | Retransmission Consent Election Deadline Watch: The company and its partners must elect either mandatory carriage or retransmission consent with distributors. |
11/3/2026 | Negative Read-Through from Peer Earnings Watch: Peers' results and commentary on subscriber trends, local/national advertising, and the political advertising environment. |
11/4/2026 | Peer Warner Bros Discovery Earnings Watch: Peer Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/5/2026 | Worsening Core Advertising Demand Watch: Q3 non-political advertising results and Q4 guidance. Commentary from peers reporting earlier in the week. |
11/5/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: Nexstar is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
November 18, 2026 | TEGNA Merger Agreement Extension Watch: An extension option for the TEGNA merger agreement expires. |
November 30, 2026 | Distribution Fee Dispute and Blackout Risk Watch: Announcements of a carriage dispute, channel blackout, or a new agreement with DIRECTV before the deadline. |
November 30, 2026 | DIRECTV Distribution Agreement Deadline Watch: The company's offer to extend its distribution agreement with DIRECTV on status quo terms expires. |
in the fourth quarter | The CW Network Profitability Target Watch: The CW Network is expected to achieve profitability, a key milestone in its turnaround plan. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-01 | Analyst Highlights Value Opportunity Details: An analyst note in early September described shares as undervalued due to the legal overhang from the TEGNA acquisition, despite strong political ad tailwinds and resilient core business performance. | -2.7% $182.13 -> $177.19 |
2026-08-06 | Record Q2 Revenue Reported Details: Nexstar reported record quarterly net revenue of $2.0 billion for Q2 2026, driven by the TEGNA acquisition and strong political advertising. The stock reacted positively to the news. | +2.0% $188.16 -> $191.87 |
2026-08-06 | CBS Affiliation Agreement Renewed Details: In July, Nexstar completed a multi-year agreement with CBS to extend its affiliations in 36 markets, while replacing the CBS affiliation with The CW in four smaller markets. | +2.0% $188.16 -> $191.87 |
2026-05-07 | Q1 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q1 2026 results which included 13 days of financial contribution from the newly acquired TEGNA assets. The stock reaction was positive. | +2.8% $193.42 -> $198.90 |
2026-04-17 | Court Issues Injunction on TEGNA Integration Details: A U.S. District Court entered a preliminary injunction on April 17, 2026, prohibiting further integration of Nexstar and TEGNA, requiring the assets to be held separate during litigation. | +4.1% $193.61 -> $201.52 |
2026-03-23 | New Debt Issued for Acquisition Details: To fund the TEGNA merger, the company priced an offering of $3,390 million in senior secured notes due 2033 and $1,725 million in senior notes due 2034. | -2.2% $222.46 -> $217.47 |
2026-03-19 | TEGNA Acquisition Closed Details: The company completed its previously announced merger with TEGNA on March 19, 2026, primarily funded by debt issuance. The deal was valued at an estimated $6.2 billion. | -1.0% $224.61 -> $222.46 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: NXST trades at roughly 40% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (3.0x the market), around the 82nd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
FOXA - Fox
National Media ExposureFox offers exposure to higher-margin national news and sports assets with a stronger balance sheet, avoiding the single-company integration risk currently facing Nexstar.
SBGI - Sinclair
Pure-Play Local BroadcastSinclair provides a pure-play investment in local broadcasting, but with significantly lower operating margins of 5.9% compared to Nexstar's 18%, reflecting Nexstar's scale advantage.
A scale-driven local media powerhouse using contractual distribution fees and cyclical political ad windfalls to fund a litigious M&A pivot and navigate secular headwinds.
Nexstar's core business model leverages its unmatched scale in local broadcast television to secure favorable retransmission fees from distributors and capture a large share of political advertising. This generates strong, albeit cyclical, cash flow. The company is using this financial strength to execute the massive acquisition of TEGNA, which promises significant synergies but is currently encumbered by legal challenges that delay integration and create uncertainty. Meanwhile, the company is attempting to turn around The CW network and grow its national news brand, NewsNation.
A favorable ruling or settlement in the TEGNA litigation, allowing synergy realization to begin. Political advertising revenue for 2026 exceeding expectations. Evidence of stabilizing MVPD subscriber trends or faster vMVPD growth.
An adverse court ruling that forces a divestiture of TEGNA or permanently blocks integration. A weaker-than-expected political advertising cycle. Accelerated MVPD subscriber declines that are not offset by rate increases.
Short-term fluctuations in non-political core advertising, which are expected to be soft and impacted by political 'crowd-out'. Quarterly ratings fluctuations for individual entertainment shows.
Repricing Catalyst
The resolution of the TEGNA litigation, which would remove a major source of uncertainty and allow the company to begin realizing an estimated $697 million in synergies. A stronger-than-expected political advertising cycle in the second half of 2026 could also drive earnings and free cash flow above current expectations.
Broadcast
$4.7B TTM (92% of Total) · 19% MarginWhat It Is
This segment includes television stations and related local websites, the NewsNation national cable news network, and multicast networks. It sells content carriage rights to distributors and advertising inventory to businesses and political campaigns.
Who Pays & How
MVPDs (cable/satellite) pay retransmission fees to carry the segment's local station signals, which broadcast popular network content (ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS) and local news. Advertisers pay to reach the large, engaged local audiences these stations attract.
Competition
Nexstar Media — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Broadcasting Resources |
| Broadcasting & Cable |
| TV Technology |
| Radio Ink |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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