ServiceNow (NOW)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $850.45 | Market Cap: $176.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
ServiceNow (NOW)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $850.45Market Cap: $176.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 80x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 102x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Automation & Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Automation & Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 80x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 102x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NOW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -9.8% movement in ServiceNow (NOW) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025:
1. Broader Market Underperformance and Tech Sector Trends: ServiceNow's stock significantly underperformed major market indices, including the S&P 500 and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, throughout 2025, suggesting a potential sector-wide rotation or broader market headwinds impacting tech stocks.
2. Cautious Q4 Subscription Revenue Growth Guidance: Despite strong Q3 2025 earnings, management's guidance for the fourth quarter indicated potential headwinds to subscription revenue growth due to a larger-than-average customer cohort scheduled for on-premise renewals. This suggested a temporary slowdown as customers migrate to cloud solutions.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NOW Return | 95% | 18% | -40% | 82% | 50% | -20% | 201% |
| Peers Return | 132% | 1% | -57% | 50% | 8% | -8% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NOW Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 17% | 75% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 47% | 23% | 58% | 43% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NOW Max Drawdown | -12% | -17% | -47% | -6% | -9% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -25% | -61% | -14% | -32% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TEAM, PEGA, ALRM, VRNT, FSLY. See NOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NOW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 423 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 120 days |
Compare to TEAM, PEGA, ALRM, VRNT, FSLY
In The Past
ServiceNow's stock fell -51.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -51.3% loss requires a 105.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| ServiceNow Earnings Notes | |||
| NOW Stock Is 18% Cheaper, Buy? | Actionable | ||
| How Low Can ServiceNow Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| ServiceNow vs Eli Lilly: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| ServiceNow vs Arista Networks: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| null | |||
| Better Bet Than NOW Stock: Pay Less Than ServiceNow To Get More From NVDA, APP | |||
| Better Bet Than NOW Stock: Pay Less Than ServiceNow To Get More From NVDA, PAY | |||
| Better Bet Than NOW Stock: Pay Less Than ServiceNow To Get More From PAY | |||
| Better Bet Than NOW Stock: Pay Less Than ServiceNow To Get More From PAY | Actionable | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| NOW At Price Support Zone, Right Time To Buy? | September 6th, 2025 | ||
| How ServiceNow Stock Falls By 50%? | August 25th, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than ServiceNow Stock: Pay Less To Get More From PAY | August 12th, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than ServiceNow Stock: Pay Less To Get More From PAY | July 30th, 2025 | ||
| Why Is ServiceNow Stock Rising? | July 24th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 10312022 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.1% | 38.3% | -14.1% |
| 04302022 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.1% | -3.9% | -28.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 10312022 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.1% | 38.3% | -14.1% |
| 04302022 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.1% | -3.9% | -28.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ServiceNow
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 53.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,362 |
| Op Inc LTM | 103 |
| FCF LTM | 292 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 225 |
| CFO LTM | 308 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 240 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | 14.6 |
| P/E | 19.8 |
| P/CFO | 21.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.5% | -3.5% | |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.2% | 2.2% | -8.3% |
| 4/23/2025 | 15.5% | 17.5% | 25.0% |
| 1/29/2025 | -11.4% | -10.2% | -18.7% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.4% | 4.7% | 15.4% |
| 7/24/2024 | 13.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | -4.0% | -8.1% | 1.6% |
| 1/24/2024 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -3.7% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 15.5% | 20.0% | 27.1% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -13.9% | -18.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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