Tearsheet

Nike (NKE)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $65.7 | Market Cap: $97.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods

Nike (NKE)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $65.7
Market Cap: $97.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, and Advanced Materials. Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, and Advanced Materials. Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NKE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining a significant decline in Nike's stock: 1. Disappointing financial outlook and lowered guidance. Nike faced significant stock plunges following disappointing earnings reports and a forecast for a mid-single-digit to 10% revenue decline for fiscal year 2025. This outlook, indicating a projected 10% drop in Q1 revenue and slashed full-year guidance for 2025, led to a substantial drop in the stock.

2. Weak sales in key markets and rising competition. The company has experienced declining global sales in both apparel and footwear in 2024, diverging from broader market trends. Sales in key markets such as China have been particularly affected by depressed consumer spending and a preference for locally made products, while Nike has lost market share to on-trend rivals like On, Hoka, and New Balance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NKE Return41%19%-29%-6%-29%-11%-30%
Peers Return-4%53%-34%24%45%26%119%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NKE Win Rate50%50%33%58%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate67%75%25%50%67%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NKE Max Drawdown-38%-10%-50%-23%-34%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-65%-11%-37%0%-5%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIL, AGIE, JPO, MPJS, ZCXX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNKES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven140 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven68 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven371 days1480 days

Compare to GIL, AGIE, JPO, MPJS, ZCXX


In The Past

Nike's stock fell -53.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -53.2% loss requires a 113.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nike (NKE)

Interactive Breakdown

Nike Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Nike (NKE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NKE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
NKE_3312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312025NKENikeDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.9%5.3%-16.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
NKE_3312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312025NKENikeDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.9%5.3%-16.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nike

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NKEGILAGIEJPOMPJSZCXXMedian
NameNike Gildan A.Angie JP Outfi.MPJS Zc Gold . 
Mkt Price65.6958.33----62.01
Mkt Cap97.08.7----52.9
Rev LTM46,4403,362----24,901
Op Inc LTM3,420728----2,074
FCF LTM3,009-----3,009
FCF 3Y Avg4,893-----4,893
CFO LTM3,526-----3,526
CFO 3Y Avg5,611-----5,611

Growth & Margins

NKEGILAGIEJPOMPJSZCXXMedian
NameNike Gildan A.Angie JP Outfi.MPJS Zc Gold . 
Rev Chg LTM-7.1%4.0%-----1.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%0.7%----0.2%
Rev Chg Q1.1%2.2%----1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.3%0.6%----0.4%
Op Mgn LTM7.4%21.7%----14.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.2%19.3%----14.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%0.4%-----0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM7.6%-----7.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.3%-----11.3%
FCF/Rev LTM6.5%-----6.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%-----9.9%

Valuation

NKEGILAGIEJPOMPJSZCXXMedian
NameNike Gildan A.Angie JP Outfi.MPJS Zc Gold . 
Mkt Cap97.08.7----52.9
P/S2.22.6----2.4
P/EBIT30.112.7----21.4
P/E35.618.2----26.9
P/CFO29.2-----29.2
Total Yield2.8%6.3%----4.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%----0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%-----3.8%
D/E0.10.2----0.2
Net D/E0.00.2----0.1

Returns

NKEGILAGIEJPOMPJSZCXXMedian
NameNike Gildan A.Angie JP Outfi.MPJS Zc Gold . 
1M Rtn8.0%3.2%----5.6%
3M Rtn-12.3%6.3%-----3.0%
6M Rtn6.0%23.4%----14.7%
12M Rtn-14.2%20.1%----3.0%
3Y Rtn-36.8%113.7%----38.4%
1M Excs Rtn6.7%1.9%----4.3%
3M Excs Rtn-16.3%-0.3%-----8.3%
6M Excs Rtn-9.4%8.0%-----0.7%
12M Excs Rtn-28.4%5.1%-----11.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-107.9%47.7%-----30.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Footwear35,22735,29031,23730,00724,947
Apparel13,86813,93313,67012,96911,042
Equipment2,1121,7551,6501,4111,305
Other155239153151109
Total51,36251,21746,71044,53837,403


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity38,391,572
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.4%
Average Daily Volume17,321,330
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.22
Basic Shares Quantity1,476,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251001202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025717202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025403202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024103202510-Q 11/30/2024
83120241007202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024725202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024404202410-Q 2/29/2024
11302023105202410-Q 11/30/2023
83120231006202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023720202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023406202310-Q 2/28/2023
11302022105202310-Q 11/30/2022
83120221006202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022721202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022405202210-Q 2/28/2022
11302021106202210-Q 11/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIG 11102025Buy62.0916,1501,002,7541,327,981Form