Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $99.32 | Market Cap: $109.0 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $99.32Market Cap: $109.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 6.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 149% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 9.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.1 Bil | Key risksNEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 6.6% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 9.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 149% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56% |
| Key risksNEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NEM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested timeframe for Newmont (NEM) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to today (December 17, 2025) is in the future. Therefore, providing an explanation for a specific 32.6% stock movement within this future period is not possible.
However, based on available information that extends into late 2025 and analyst projections, Newmont's stock has shown significant upward momentum and reached an all-time high in December 2025, with a reported surge of nearly 164% in 2025 alone and over 76% in the past six months, which includes the specified period. This general positive trend can be attributed to several factors:
1. Strong Gold Price Rally: The primary driver of Newmont's stock performance in 2025 has been a significant rise in gold prices. Global macroeconomic uncertainties and a perceived safe-haven appeal have fueled increased investor demand for gold. Newmont, as one of the largest gold producers globally, directly benefits from higher gold prices, leading to increased revenue and profitability.
2. Newcrest Mining Acquisition and Portfolio Optimization: Newmont completed the acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited in November 2023, solidifying its position as the world's leading gold company with robust copper production. This strategic move expanded Newmont's portfolio with high-quality operations and is expected to generate significant annual pre-tax synergies and cash improvements through portfolio optimization. The company announced plans to sell about $2 billion in assets following the acquisition to sustain costs and generate cash flow for reinvestment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEM Return | 40% | 7% | -21% | -9% | -8% | 172% | 173% |
| Peers Return | 94% | 33% | -2% | 23% | 19% | 87% | 590% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEM Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 92% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 53% | 47% | 58% | 45% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEM Max Drawdown | -9% | -9% | -37% | -26% | -28% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -15% | -32% | -14% | -16% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC. See NEM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 692 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 469 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 561 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AEM, FNV, KGC, NEM, B
In The Past
Newmont's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NEM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 17.9% | 17.9% | -5.7% |
| 01312024 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 44.2% | 28.0% | -13.5% |
| 02282023 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -28.7% | -28.8% |
| 08312022 | NEM | Newmont | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.3% | -0.4% | -7.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 17.9% | 17.9% | -5.7% |
| 01312024 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 44.2% | 28.0% | -13.5% |
| 02282023 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -28.7% | -28.8% |
| 08312022 | NEM | Newmont | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.3% | -0.4% | -7.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Newmont
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 72.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 76.0 |
| Rev LTM | 12,139 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,711 |
| FCF LTM | 2,861 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,730 |
| CFO LTM | 5,228 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,997 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 42.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 40.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 76.0 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 25.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 51.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 76.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 146.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 20.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 57.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 71.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 2,271 | 2,098 | |||
| Boddington | 1,814 | 1,763 | |||
| Ahafo | 1,130 | 1,023 | |||
| Peñasquito | 901 | 2,189 | |||
| Tanami | 867 | 878 | |||
| Merian | 625 | 723 | |||
| Akyem | 574 | 749 | |||
| Yanacocha | 537 | 451 | |||
| Cerro Negro | 510 | 508 | |||
| Porcupine | 503 | 504 | |||
| Éléonore | 453 | 391 | |||
| Cadia | 422 | ||||
| Musselwhite | 351 | 305 | |||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 332 | 333 | |||
| Lihir | 266 | ||||
| Telfer | 152 | ||||
| Brucejack | 72 | ||||
| Red Chris | 32 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Gold Sales from Doré Production | 8,490 | 8,534 | 7,975 | ||
| Sales from Concentrate and Other Production | 3,732 | 2,963 | 1,765 | ||
| Total | 11,812 | 11,915 | 12,222 | 11,497 | 9,740 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Other | 9,844 | 8,369 | |||
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 7,401 | 7,419 | |||
| Cadia | 6,351 | ||||
| Peñasquito | 4,738 | 6,430 | |||
| Brucejack | 4,006 | ||||
| Lihir | 3,909 | ||||
| Ahafo | 2,823 | 2,619 | |||
| Boddington | 2,376 | 2,264 | |||
| Red Chris | 2,178 | ||||
| Yanacocha | 2,117 | 2,225 | |||
| Tanami | 1,896 | 1,585 | |||
| Cerro Negro | 1,646 | 1,659 | |||
| Porcupine | 1,473 | 1,401 | |||
| Akyem | 1,069 | 998 | |||
| Musselwhite | 1,018 | 1,294 | |||
| Merian | 927 | 923 | |||
| Éléonore | 777 | 1,010 | |||
| Telfer | 574 | ||||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 383 | 286 | |||
| Total | 55,506 | 38,482 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -6.2% | -7.4% | -6.1% |
| 7/24/2025 | 6.9% | 1.0% | 15.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -5.7% | -12.4% | -0.9% |
| 10/23/2024 | -14.7% | -18.7% | -25.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -4.2% | 2.9% | 7.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | -7.6% | -10.6% | 4.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| 7/20/2023 | -6.0% | -3.8% | -14.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 2.3% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -6.5% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 11.0% | 15.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.7% | -18.7% | -25.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4222022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
