ArcelorMittal (MT)
Market Price (10/17/2025): $38.78 | Market Cap: $29.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
ArcelorMittal (MT)
Market Price (10/17/2025): $38.78Market Cap: $29.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 4.9 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 4.9 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MT Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
MT Return | 31% | 40% | -16% | 10% | -17% | 69% | 127% |
Peers Return | 18% | 48% | -7% | 9% | -31% | 15% | 41% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
MT Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 100% | |
Peers Win Rate | 33% | 46% | 37% | 49% | 47% | 58% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
MT Max Drawdown | -60% | -8% | -37% | -17% | -25% | -6% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -5% | -33% | -13% | -36% | -29% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, STLD, CLF, HLP, HUDI. See MT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/16/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | MT | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -46.8% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 87.8% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 1098 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -61.4% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 159.0% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -66.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 194.9% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 2240 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -85.1% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 571.7% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
ArcelorMittal's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2022. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.8% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
MT Dip Buy Analysis | |||
ArcelorMittal (MT) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
ArcelorMittal Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -16.9% in 2024 and -8.5% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
Why You Shouldn?t Be Buying ArcelorMittal Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
ArcelorMittal (MT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
ArcelorMittal (MT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
ArcelorMittal (MT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
ArcelorMittal (MT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
Arcelor Mittal (MT) Stock Has 55% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
ARTICLES | |||
Buy Or Fear ArcelorMittal Stock? | September 9th, 2025 | ||
Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 12th, 2025 | ||
Is ArcelorMittal Stock Still A Strong Bet? | June 18th, 2025 | ||
Why Are ArcelorMittal’s Net Margins So Low? | May 15th, 2025 | ||
Why Is ArcelorMittal Stock Up 50% In Six Months? | March 10th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.8% |
09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.2% | -12.2% | -12.2% |
09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.9% |
07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -19.5% | -19.5% | -19.6% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.8% |
09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.2% | -12.2% | -12.2% |
09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.9% |
07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -19.5% | -19.5% | -19.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ArcelorMittal
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 26.17 |
Mkt Cap | 25.4 |
Rev LTM | 24,631 |
Op Inc LTM | 1,644 |
FCF LTM | -246 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 1,629 |
CFO LTM | 2,345 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 4,331 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | -5.6% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.3% |
Rev Chg Q | -1.7% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.3% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
FCF/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 25.4 |
P/S | 0.7 |
P/EBIT | 13.5 |
P/E | 16.1 |
P/CFO | 7.9 |
Total Yield | 6.1% |
Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
D/E | 0.3 |
Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 7.0% |
3M Rtn | 14.1% |
6M Rtn | 32.1% |
12M Rtn | 7.7% |
3Y Rtn | 13.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | 8.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
6M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
12M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -68.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Europe | 31,695 | 39,639 | 43,334 | 27,989 | 37,487 |
Brazil | 13,163 | 13,732 | 12,856 | 5,613 | 6,980 |
North America | 12,978 | 13,774 | 12,530 | 13,438 | 18,590 |
Sustainable solutions | 11,467 | 13,658 | |||
Others | 5,455 | 6,397 | 34 | 11 | 71 |
Mining | 3,077 | 3,396 | 4,045 | 1,185 | 981 |
India and joint ventures (JVs) | 0 | 0 | |||
Elimination | -9,560 | -10,752 | -6,082 | 0 | 0 |
Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS) | 9,854 | 5,034 | 6,506 | ||
Total | 68,275 | 79,844 | 76,571 | 53,270 | 70,615 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | 1,917 | 2,818 | 2,800 | 1,684 | -1,144 |
Brazil | 1,461 | 2,775 | 3,798 | 777 | 853 |
Mining | 1,144 | 1,483 | 2,371 | 1,247 | 1,026 |
Europe | 879 | 3,521 | 5,672 | -1,439 | -1,101 |
Sustainable solutions | 225 | 778 | |||
Elimination | 91 | 105 | -142 | -100 | -7 |
India and joint ventures (JVs) | 0 | 0 | |||
Others | -3,377 | -1,208 | -228 | -268 | -285 |
Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS) | 2,705 | 209 | 31 | ||
Total | 2,340 | 10,272 | 16,976 | 2,110 | -627 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8012025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4302025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 3102025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8022024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5022024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2282024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7282023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 3082023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7292022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 3112022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11122021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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