ArcelorMittal (MT)
Market Price (11/3/2025): $38.2 | Market Cap: $29.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
ArcelorMittal (MT)
Market Price (11/3/2025): $38.2Market Cap: $29.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 4.9 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 4.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.1% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MT Return | 31% | 40% | -16% | 10% | -17% | 66% | 133% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 48% | -7% | 9% | -31% | 20% | 47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MT Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 46% | 37% | 49% | 47% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MT Max Drawdown | -60% | -8% | -37% | -17% | -25% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -5% | -33% | -13% | -36% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, STLD, CLF, HLP, HUDI. See MT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1098 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 194.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2240 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 571.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to NUE, STLD, CLF, HLP, HUDI
In The Past
ArcelorMittal's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2022. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can ArcelorMittal Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| MT Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ArcelorMittal (MT) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| ArcelorMittal Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -16.9% in 2024 and -8.5% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Why You Shouldn?t Be Buying ArcelorMittal Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| ArcelorMittal (MT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| ArcelorMittal (MT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ArcelorMittal (MT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ArcelorMittal (MT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Buy Or Fear ArcelorMittal Stock? | September 9th, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 12th, 2025 | ||
| Is ArcelorMittal Stock Still A Strong Bet? | June 18th, 2025 | ||
| Why Are ArcelorMittal’s Net Margins So Low? | May 15th, 2025 | ||
| Why Is ArcelorMittal Stock Up 50% In Six Months? | March 10th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.6% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.9% | -2.9% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.6% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.9% | -2.9% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ArcelorMittal
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | 26.0 |
| Rev LTM | 24,714 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,704 |
| FCF LTM | -37 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,512 |
| CFO LTM | 2,327 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,202 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.0 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 16.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 31,695 | 39,639 | 43,334 | 27,989 | 37,487 |
| Brazil | 13,163 | 13,732 | 12,856 | 5,613 | 6,980 |
| North America | 12,978 | 13,774 | 12,530 | 13,438 | 18,590 |
| Sustainable solutions | 11,467 | 13,658 | |||
| Others | 5,455 | 6,397 | 34 | 11 | 71 |
| Mining | 3,077 | 3,396 | 4,045 | 1,185 | 981 |
| India and joint ventures (JVs) | 0 | 0 | |||
| Elimination | -9,560 | -10,752 | -6,082 | 0 | 0 |
| Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS) | 9,854 | 5,034 | 6,506 | ||
| Total | 68,275 | 79,844 | 76,571 | 53,270 | 70,615 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 1,917 | 2,818 | 2,800 | 1,684 | -1,144 |
| Brazil | 1,461 | 2,775 | 3,798 | 777 | 853 |
| Mining | 1,144 | 1,483 | 2,371 | 1,247 | 1,026 |
| Europe | 879 | 3,521 | 5,672 | -1,439 | -1,101 |
| Sustainable solutions | 225 | 778 | |||
| Elimination | 91 | 105 | -142 | -100 | -7 |
| India and joint ventures (JVs) | 0 | 0 | |||
| Others | -3,377 | -1,208 | -228 | -268 | -285 |
| Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS) | 2,705 | 209 | 31 | ||
| Total | 2,340 | 10,272 | 16,976 | 2,110 | -627 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3102025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11122021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
