Tearsheet

Investment Highlights


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

MT Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MT Return31%40%-16%10%-17%69%127%
Peers Return18%48%-7%9%-31%15%41%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MT Win Rate67%58%50%42%42%100% 
Peers Win Rate33%46%37%49%47%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MT Max Drawdown-60%-8%-37%-17%-25%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-5%-33%-13%-36%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, STLD, CLF, HLP, HUDI. See MT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/16/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventMTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-46.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven87.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1098 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven159.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven251 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-66.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven194.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2240 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven571.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

ArcelorMittal's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2022. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than ArcelorMittal (MT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.0%-3.0%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.2%-12.2%-12.2%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.7%6.7%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.0%14.0%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-19.5%-19.5%-19.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.0%-3.0%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.2%-12.2%-12.2%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.7%6.7%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.0%14.0%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-19.5%-19.5%-19.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ArcelorMittal

Financials

MTNUESTLDCLFHLPHUDIMedian
NameArcelorM.Nucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Hongli Huadi In. 
Mkt Price38.78132.66142.6513.561.471.3226.17
Mkt Cap29.630.621.26.7--25.4
Rev LTM60,63430,80617,14818,457--24,631
Op Inc LTM1,8892,1431,399-1,588--1,644
FCF LTM904-385-107-1,482---246
FCF 3Y Avg2,0063,1151,251337--1,629
CFO LTM4,9413,1301,561-862--2,345
CFO 3Y Avg6,3915,8422,8191,030--4,331

Growth & Margins

MTNUESTLDCLFHLPHUDIMedian
NameArcelorM.Nucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Hongli Huadi In. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.8%-5.8%-5.5%-12.1%---5.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.6%-10.4%-8.2%-7.9%---9.3%
Rev Chg Q-2.0%4.7%-1.5%-3.1%---1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.5%1.2%-0.4%-0.8%---0.5%
Op Mgn LTM3.1%7.0%8.2%-8.6%--5.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.6%13.9%14.7%-1.3%--8.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-0.0%-1.1%-2.3%---1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM8.1%10.2%9.1%-4.7%--8.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.6%17.0%14.8%4.6%--12.2%
FCF/Rev LTM1.5%-1.2%-0.6%-8.0%---0.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.9%8.7%6.3%1.2%--4.6%

Valuation

MTNUESTLDCLFHLPHUDIMedian
NameArcelorM.Nucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Hongli Huadi In. 
Mkt Cap29.630.621.26.7--25.4
P/S0.51.01.20.4--0.7
P/EBIT12.914.015.3-4.2--13.5
P/E11.823.620.3-4.0--16.1
P/CFO6.09.813.6-7.8--7.9
Total Yield8.4%5.9%6.3%-24.8%--6.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.7%1.4%0.0%--0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.9%7.7%6.7%-2.5%--7.2%
D/E0.50.20.21.2--0.3
Net D/E0.30.10.21.1--0.2

Returns

MTNUESTLDCLFHLPHUDIMedian
NameArcelorM.Nucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Hongli Huadi In. 
1M Rtn11.6%-6.8%2.5%15.7%45.5%-10.2%7.0%
3M Rtn19.0%-5.4%9.2%44.4%127.3%2.3%14.1%
6M Rtn43.7%21.0%21.5%85.8%42.7%-9.0%32.1%
12M Rtn64.3%-12.5%11.6%3.9%19.5%-40.3%7.7%
3Y Rtn88.4%13.6%86.4%-8.9%--95.5%13.6%
1M Excs Rtn12.3%-7.2%4.2%19.7%45.1%-13.0%8.2%
3M Excs Rtn14.2%-10.6%3.5%37.8%121.6%-1.4%8.8%
6M Excs Rtn19.7%-2.9%-3.0%63.2%29.9%-35.9%8.4%
12M Excs Rtn48.1%-24.8%-1.8%-9.2%0.8%-59.3%-5.5%
3Y Excs Rtn11.5%-68.1%3.9%-96.4%--179.9%-68.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Europe31,69539,63943,33427,98937,487
Brazil13,16313,73212,8565,6136,980
North America12,97813,77412,53013,43818,590
Sustainable solutions11,46713,658   
Others5,4556,397341171
Mining3,0773,3964,0451,185981
India and joint ventures (JVs)00   
Elimination-9,560-10,752-6,08200
Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS)  9,8545,0346,506
Total68,27579,84476,57153,27070,615


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America1,9172,8182,8001,684-1,144
Brazil1,4612,7753,798777853
Mining1,1441,4832,3711,2471,026
Europe8793,5215,672-1,439-1,101
Sustainable solutions225778   
Elimination91105-142-100-7
India and joint ventures (JVs)00   
Others-3,377-1,208-228-268-285
Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS)  2,70520931
Total2,34010,27216,9762,110-627


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,733,525
Short Interest: % Change Since 915202522.4%
Average Daily Volume1,008,156
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.71
Basic Shares Quantity762,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202580120256-K 6/30/2025
331202543020256-K 3/31/2025
12312024310202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024110720246-K 9/30/2024
630202480220246-K 6/30/2024
331202450220246-K 3/31/2024
12312023228202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023110920236-K 9/30/2023
630202372820236-K 6/30/2023
331202350420236-K 3/31/2023
12312022308202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
630202272920226-K 6/30/2022
331202250520226-K 3/31/2022
12312021311202220-F 12/31/2021
9302021111220216-K 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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