Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.3%, Dist 3Y High is -4.3%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 4.3 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 4.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.3%, Dist 3Y High is -4.3%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.8%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

MT Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MT Return31%40%-16%10%-17%71%140%
Peers Return18%48%-7%9%-31%13%39%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MT Win Rate67%58%50%42%42%100% 
Peers Win Rate33%46%37%49%47%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MT Max Drawdown-60%-8%-37%-17%-25%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-5%-33%-13%-36%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, STLD, CLF, HLP, HUDI. See MT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-46.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven87.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1098 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven159.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven251 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-66.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven194.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2240 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven571.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to NUE, STLD, CLF, HLP, HUDI


In The Past

ArcelorMittal's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2022. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ArcelorMittal (MT)

Better Bets than ArcelorMittal (MT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.2%0.2%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.1%-1.1%-1.1%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.1%-17.1%-17.1%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0% 
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.6%-3.6%-7.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.2%0.2%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.1%-1.1%-1.1%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.1%-17.1%-17.1%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0% 
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.6%-3.6%-7.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ArcelorMittal

Financials

MTNUESTLDCLFHLPHUDIMedian
NameArcelorM.Nucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Hongli Huadi In. 
Mkt Price39.16144.31151.9410.431.661.2124.79
Mkt Cap29.833.322.35.2--26.1
Rev LTM61,09530,80617,63518,622--24,714
Op Inc LTM1,7702,1431,519-1,539--1,644
FCF LTM58-385311-1,547---164
FCF 3Y Avg1,4453,1151,018141--1,232
CFO LTM4,2813,1301,524-921--2,327
CFO 3Y Avg5,9815,8422,562804--4,202

Growth & Margins

MTNUESTLDCLFHLPHUDIMedian
NameArcelorM.Nucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Hongli Huadi In. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.9%-5.8%-1.5%-6.8%---3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-9.8%-10.4%-8.0%-7.2%---8.9%
Rev Chg Q3.0%4.7%11.2%3.6%--4.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%1.2%2.8%0.9%--1.1%
Op Mgn LTM2.9%7.0%8.6%-8.3%--4.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.1%13.9%13.7%-1.9%--8.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.0%0.5%0.3%--0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM7.0%10.2%8.6%-4.9%--7.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.1%17.0%13.8%3.6%--11.5%
FCF/Rev LTM0.1%-1.2%1.8%-8.3%---0.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.1%8.7%5.4%0.3%--3.7%

Valuation

MTNUESTLDCLFHLPHUDIMedian
NameArcelorM.Nucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Hongli Huadi In. 
Mkt Cap29.833.322.35.2--26.1
P/S0.51.11.30.3--0.8
P/EBIT13.215.315.0-3.3--14.1
P/E11.525.719.8-3.1--15.7
P/CFO7.010.614.7-5.6--8.8
Total Yield8.7%5.4%6.3%-32.3%--5.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.6%1.3%0.0%--0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.9%7.7%5.6%0.5%--6.3%
D/E0.50.20.21.6--0.4
Net D/E0.30.10.11.5--0.2

Returns

MTNUESTLDCLFHLPHUDIMedian
NameArcelorM.Nucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Hongli Huadi In. 
1M Rtn5.3%8.0%7.6%-20.9%0.6%-11.0%3.0%
3M Rtn16.5%4.3%24.0%9.1%150.5%8.1%12.8%
6M Rtn30.5%26.3%17.3%49.0%0.0%-8.3%21.8%
12M Rtn52.9%-7.5%3.9%-19.0%26.5%-37.9%-1.8%
3Y Rtn62.6%8.5%64.9%-25.3%--86.6%8.5%
1M Excs Rtn-------
3M Excs Rtn10.2%-3.2%16.1%-1.1%144.8%-3.2%4.5%
6M Excs Rtn27.1%22.9%13.9%45.6%-3.4%-11.7%18.4%
12M Excs Rtn45.6%-11.3%0.9%-23.0%10.6%-52.4%-5.2%
3Y Excs Rtn30.1%-41.1%13.7%-73.1%--154.4%-41.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Europe6,62747,26343,33427,98937,487
North America2,94213,77412,53013,43818,478
Brazil2,70913,73212,8565,6136,927
Sustainable solutions2,457    
Mining7643,3964,0451,1851,165
Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS) 6,3689,8545,0346,487
Elimination -4,721 00
Others 32 1171
Total15,49979,84482,61953,27070,615


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America2802,8182,8001,684-1,259
Mining2701,4832,3711,2471,215
Brazil1712,7753,798777846
Sustainable solutions15    
Europe-44,2925,672-1,439-1,107
Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS) -9302,705209-25
Elimination 149 -100-2
Others -315 -268-295
Total73210,27217,3462,110-627


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,173,968
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-20.5%
Average Daily Volume1,782,213
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.22
Basic Shares Quantity761,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110620256-K 9/30/2025
630202580120256-K 6/30/2025
331202543020256-K 3/31/2025
12312024310202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024110720246-K 9/30/2024
630202480220246-K 6/30/2024
331202450220246-K 3/31/2024
12312023228202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023110920236-K 9/30/2023
630202372820236-K 6/30/2023
331202350420236-K 3/31/2023
12312022308202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
630202272920226-K 6/30/2022
331202250520226-K 3/31/2022
12312021311202220-F 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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