ArcelorMittal (MT)
Market Price (11/17/2025): $39.86 | Market Cap: $30.3 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
ArcelorMittal (MT)
Market Price (11/17/2025): $39.86Market Cap: $30.3 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 4.3 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -6.5% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 4.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -6.5% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.8% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I have retrieved information from the search results, primarily focusing on ArcelorMittal's Q3 2025 earnings report released on November 6, 2025, and other market conditions around that time. I also found some context on steel and iron ore prices during the relevant period. While the prompt asks for a stock movement of 25.6%, the search results do not directly state this specific percentage movement for the given timeframe. However, they do provide reasons for *why* the stock might have moved, including positive earnings surprises and market outlook. I will synthesize the key points based on the available information. Here are the key points for the stock movement of ArcelorMittal (MT) for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025: 1. 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations: ArcelorMittal reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations with an adjusted EPS of $0.62 against a forecast of $0.57, and revenue reaching $15.66 billion against an anticipated $15.46 billion. This positive earnings surprise led to a 3.42% rise in the stock in pre-market trading, reflecting investor optimism. 2. 2. Resilient Financial Performance and Strategic Investments: Despite challenging market conditions, ArcelorMittal demonstrated resilient financial performance in Q3 2025, supported by strategic growth investments and regional diversification. The company achieved an EBITDA of $1.5 billion and a net income of $0.4 billion, with an EBITDA per ton of $111, which was 25% above its historical average margin. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MT Return | 31% | 40% | -16% | 10% | -17% | 73% | 143% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 48% | -7% | 9% | -31% | 14% | 40% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MT Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 46% | 37% | 49% | 47% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MT Max Drawdown | -60% | -8% | -37% | -17% | -25% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -5% | -33% | -13% | -36% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, STLD, CLF, HLP, HUDI. See MT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1098 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 194.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2240 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 571.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to NUE, STLD, CLF, HLP, HUDI
In The Past
ArcelorMittal's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2022. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.3% | 5.3% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | -7.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.3% | 5.3% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | -7.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ArcelorMittal
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.4 |
| Rev LTM | 24,714 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,644 |
| FCF LTM | -164 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,232 |
| CFO LTM | 2,327 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,202 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.4 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 14.3 |
| P/E | 15.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -61.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 6,627 | 47,263 | 43,334 | 27,989 | 37,487 |
| North America | 2,942 | 13,774 | 12,530 | 13,438 | 18,478 |
| Brazil | 2,709 | 13,732 | 12,856 | 5,613 | 6,927 |
| Sustainable solutions | 2,457 | ||||
| Mining | 764 | 3,396 | 4,045 | 1,185 | 1,165 |
| Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS) | 6,368 | 9,854 | 5,034 | 6,487 | |
| Elimination | -4,721 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Others | 32 | 11 | 71 | ||
| Total | 15,499 | 79,844 | 82,619 | 53,270 | 70,615 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 280 | 2,818 | 2,800 | 1,684 | -1,259 |
| Mining | 270 | 1,483 | 2,371 | 1,247 | 1,215 |
| Brazil | 171 | 2,775 | 3,798 | 777 | 846 |
| Sustainable solutions | 15 | ||||
| Europe | -4 | 4,292 | 5,672 | -1,439 | -1,107 |
| Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS) | -930 | 2,705 | 209 | -25 | |
| Elimination | 149 | -100 | -2 | ||
| Others | -315 | -268 | -295 | ||
| Total | 732 | 10,272 | 17,346 | 2,110 | -627 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3102025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
