Microsoft (MSFT)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $509.32 | Market Cap: $3.8 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Microsoft (MSFT)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $509.32Market Cap: $3.8 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 78 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, Digital Content & Streaming, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 78 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, Digital Content & Streaming, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MSFT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Microsoft's stock (MSFT) moved by -4% during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025:
1. Concerns Stemming from Earlier Revenue Guidance and Slower Azure Execution.
Despite strong fiscal Q4 2025 earnings reported on July 30, 2025, earlier weaker Q3 revenue guidance, initially issued with the Q2 FY25 earnings report in January 2025, cited slower Azure execution and supply chain bottlenecks, which subsequently triggered a selloff in late August and September 2025.
2. Investor Apprehension Regarding Accelerating AI Capital Expenditure.
Microsoft's stock climb slowed around October 27, 2025, due to investor concern over the accelerating capital expenditure required for its extensive AI infrastructure. While these investments demonstrate strong demand, they also tend to squeeze short-term profits, leading to market skepticism about the immediate return on investment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSFT Return | 43% | 52% | -28% | 58% | 13% | 22% | 241% |
| Peers Return | 47% | 26% | -40% | 57% | 23% | 10% | 134% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSFT Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 25% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 62% | 28% | 72% | 67% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSFT Max Drawdown | -14% | -5% | -36% | -7% | -2% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -6% | -43% | -9% | -15% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, GEN, S. See MSFT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSFT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 144.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1703 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, GEN, S
In The Past
Microsoft's stock fell -37.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -37.6% loss requires a 60.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSFT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 37.6% | 36.0% | -5.5% |
| 12312022 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 42.7% | 58.2% | -7.3% |
| 06302022 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.7% | 33.9% | -16.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 37.6% | 36.0% | -5.5% |
| 12312022 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 42.7% | 58.2% | -7.3% |
| 06302022 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.7% | 33.9% | -16.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Microsoft
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 258.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 3,031.4 |
| Rev LTM | 339,644 |
| Op Inc LTM | 100,134 |
| FCF LTM | 43,516 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 45,337 |
| CFO LTM | 114,851 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 104,268 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3,031.4 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| P/EBIT | 26.0 |
| P/E | 32.7 |
| P/CFO | 24.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 98.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 34.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity and Business Processes | 106,820 | 69,274 | 63,364 | 53,915 | 46,398 |
| Intelligent Cloud | 87,464 | 87,907 | 74,965 | 60,080 | 48,366 |
| More Personal Computing | 50,838 | 54,734 | 59,941 | 54,093 | 48,251 |
| Total | 245,122 | 211,915 | 198,270 | 168,088 | 143,015 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity and Business Processes | 59,661 | 34,189 | 29,690 | 24,351 | 18,724 |
| Intelligent Cloud | 37,813 | 37,884 | 33,203 | 26,126 | 18,324 |
| More Personal Computing | 11,959 | 16,450 | 20,490 | 19,439 | 15,911 |
| Total | 109,433 | 88,523 | 83,383 | 69,916 | 52,959 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -2.9% | -6.4% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.9% | 2.3% | -0.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | 7.6% | 9.6% | 16.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | -6.2% | -6.6% | -10.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.1% | -2.9% | -1.9% |
| 7/30/2024 | -1.1% | -5.5% | -2.7% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.8% | -0.3% | 8.0% |
| 1/30/2024 | -2.7% | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.2% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 10.9% | 16.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.7% | -9.0% | -10.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1292025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1302024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1242023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1252022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |