Morgan Stanley (MS)
Market Price (11/24/2025): $158.71 | Market Cap: $249.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Market Price (11/24/2025): $158.71Market Cap: $249.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 9.5% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Show more. |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 9.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Morgan Stanley's (MS) stock moved by approximately 11.7% from July 31, 2025, to November 24, 2025:
1. Morgan Stanley's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat. The company reported significantly better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 15, 2025, with reported revenue of $18.22 billion against an estimated $17.20 billion to $16.7 billion, and a Non-GAAP EPS of $2.80 compared to estimates of $2.07 to $2.17. This substantial earnings surprise led to a positive market reaction, with the stock increasing approximately 3.65% in pre-market trading immediately following the announcement. This strong performance was driven by robust results across its Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases. Following the strong Q3 2025 earnings, numerous analysts raised their price targets and reaffirmed or upgraded their ratings for Morgan Stanley. For example, Barclays increased its price target from $156.00 to $183.00, and Jefferies raised its target from $175 to $186. Earlier in the period, on July 9, 2025, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded MS to "Outperform" and boosted its price target from $127.00 to $160.00. The consensus among analysts shifted to a "Moderate Buy" rating with an average target price around $168.23.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MS Return | 38% | 47% | -10% | 14% | 40% | 29% | 274% |
| Peers Return | 2% | 31% | -15% | 17% | 57% | 33% | 181% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MS Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 60% | 42% | 50% | 68% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MS Max Drawdown | -45% | -2% | -25% | -15% | -10% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -2% | -31% | -11% | -2% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, GS, C, IBKR. See MS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 845 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 704.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4431 days | 1480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, GS, C, IBKR
In The Past
Morgan Stanley's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2022. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.3% | -3.3% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -8.1% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.3% | -3.3% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -8.1% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Morgan Stanley
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 128.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 244.1 |
| Rev LTM | 74,746 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,467 |
| FCF LTM | 4,511 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -27,669 |
| CFO LTM | 6,180 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -24,915 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 85.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 84.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -37.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 244.1 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 3.1 |
| P/E | 14.3 |
| P/CFO | -0.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -11.5% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 122.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 56.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/15/2025 | 4.7% | 2.5% | 10.1% |
| 7/16/2025 | -1.3% | -1.1% | 5.1% |
| 4/11/2025 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 20.2% |
| 1/16/2025 | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| 10/16/2024 | 6.5% | 5.4% | 19.2% |
| 7/16/2024 | 0.9% | -2.7% | -7.3% |
| 1/16/2024 | -4.2% | -4.4% | -5.5% |
| 10/18/2023 | -6.8% | -10.9% | 0.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 18 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -2.7% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 9.6% | 21.4% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -10.9% | -7.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
