Morgan Stanley (MS)
Market Price (7/4/2026): $214.04 | Market Cap: $334.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Market Price (7/4/2026): $214.04Market Cap: $334.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Show more. | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 9.5% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 79% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.7% Key risksMS key risks include [1] significant regulatory investigations into whether its wealth management division failed to adequately vet high-risk clients, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Show more. |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 9.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 79% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.7% |
| Key risksMS key risks include [1] significant regulatory investigations into whether its wealth management division failed to adequately vet high-risk clients, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Morgan Stanley (MS) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Performance.
Morgan Stanley reported record net revenues of $20.6 billion for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), significantly exceeding analysts' estimates of $19.7 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.43, beating the consensus estimate of $3.02 by 13.58%. This strong beat, announced on April 15, 2026, served as a primary catalyst for the stock's upward movement, causing shares to surge 4.3% in pre-market trading and drifting 17.1% higher over the subsequent 67 days.
2. Enhanced Capital Return Program.
On June 24, 2026, Morgan Stanley announced a substantial increase in its quarterly common stock dividend to $1.15 per share from $1.00, effective fiscal Q3 2026. Concurrently, the firm reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, also commencing in fiscal Q3 2026. These capital deployment initiatives, supported by the firm's robust U.S. Basel III Standardized Approach Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 15.1% as of March 31, 2026 (comfortably above the 11.8% requirement), signaled strong financial health and a commitment to shareholder returns.
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Morgan Stanley (MS) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Performance.
Morgan Stanley reported record net revenues of $20.6 billion for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), significantly exceeding analysts' estimates of $19.7 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.43, beating the consensus estimate of $3.02 by 13.58%. This strong beat, announced on April 15, 2026, served as a primary catalyst for the stock's upward movement, causing shares to surge 4.3% in pre-market trading and drifting 17.1% higher over the subsequent 67 days.
2. Enhanced Capital Return Program.
On June 24, 2026, Morgan Stanley announced a substantial increase in its quarterly common stock dividend to $1.15 per share from $1.00, effective fiscal Q3 2026. Concurrently, the firm reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, also commencing in fiscal Q3 2026. These capital deployment initiatives, supported by the firm's robust U.S. Basel III Standardized Approach Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 15.1% as of March 31, 2026 (comfortably above the 11.8% requirement), signaled strong financial health and a commitment to shareholder returns.
3. Robust Performance in Core Business Segments.
The fiscal Q1 2026 results highlighted significant strength across Morgan Stanley's core businesses. The Institutional Securities segment benefited from robust client engagement and global strength, contributing to the record revenues. The Wealth Management division demonstrated continued momentum, achieving $118 billion in net new assets and $54 billion in fee-based asset flows, reinforcing the firm's diversified business model.
4. Significant Insider Selling.
Despite the positive stock trend, insider trading activity indicated some selling. On April 17, 2026, Co-President Daniel Simkowitz sold 22,690 shares for approximately $189.24 each, totaling around $4.29 million. More notably, Andrew Saperstein, another Co-President, sold 51,670 shares at $188.59 apiece on April 17, 2026, amounting to approximately $9.74 million. This insider selling activity, particularly Saperstein's transaction exceeding the $5 million threshold, was a notable event during the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.7% change in MS stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 163.69 | 213.93 | 30.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 65,966 | 68,773 | 4.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.6% | 26.3% | 3.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 18.4 | 21.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,565 | 1,561 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MS | 30.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.5% | 57.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 12.7% | 54.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.8% change in MS stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 175.61 | 213.93 | 21.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 64,247 | 68,773 | 7.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.2% | 26.3% | 4.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.1 | 18.4 | 8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,571 | 1,561 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MS | 21.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 61.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.1% | 69.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 55.5% change in MS stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 137.54 | 213.93 | 55.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,923 | 68,773 | 14.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.9% | 26.3% | 10.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 18.4 | 21.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,584 | 1,561 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 55.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MS | 55.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.6% | 63.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.5% | 69.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 175.6% change in MS stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 49.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.61 | 213.93 | 175.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,927 | 68,773 | 37.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.7% | 26.3% | 27.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.3 | 18.4 | 49.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,645 | 1,561 | 5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 175.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MS | 175.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 67.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 72.4% | 77.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MS Return | 47% | -10% | 14% | 40% | 45% | 21% | 267% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -16% | 19% | 44% | 46% | 9% | 213% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MS Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 42% | 53% | 65% | 70% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MS Max Drawdown | -12% | -32% | -29% | -13% | -29% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -37% | -23% | -14% | -28% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GS, JPM, BAC, C, WFC. See MS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 348 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Morgan Stanley's stock fell -29.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 40.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -35.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -47.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 487 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 479.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3169 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.8% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4842 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Morgan Stanley's stock fell -29.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 40.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Morgan Stanley (MS)
Morgan Stanley (MS) is a leading global financial services firm that provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It primarily serves large corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individual investors. The company organizes its operations into three main segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management.
The Institutional Securities segment is a core part of Morgan Stanley's business, assisting corporations and governments with critical financial needs. This includes capital raising through the underwriting of debt and equity securities, as well as providing strategic financial advisory services for mergers, acquisitions, and restructurings. This segment also encompasses significant sales and trading activities across various asset classes like equities, fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities, along with corporate lending. Separately, the Investment Management segment focuses on managing a diverse array of investment products, including equities, fixed income, and alternative investments, for institutional clients such as pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds.
The Wealth Management segment caters to individual investors and small to medium-sized businesses, offering a broad suite of financial advisory and brokerage services. These services include personalized investment planning, self-directed trading platforms, various lending products like securities-based and residential real estate loans, comprehensive banking solutions, and retirement plan services. This segment is dedicated to helping clients manage, preserve, and grow their personal and business wealth through tailored financial advice and solutions.
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- Similar to Goldman Sachs, but with a significantly larger focus on managing investments for individuals and families, alongside its core investment banking operations.
- Think of it as a blend of Goldman Sachs' high-stakes investment banking and Fidelity's comprehensive wealth management services.
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- Investment Banking: Provides capital raising services through underwriting debt and equity, and financial advisory on mergers, acquisitions, and restructurings.
- Sales & Trading: Offers brokerage, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services across equity and fixed income products, including foreign exchange and commodities.
- Wealth Management Services: Delivers financial advisor-led and self-directed brokerage, investment advisory, and comprehensive financial and wealth planning services to individual and small business clients.
- Lending Solutions: Provides secured corporate and commercial real estate loans, asset-backed and mortgage lending, as well as securities-based and residential real estate loans for clients.
- Investment Management Products: Offers a variety of equity, fixed income, liquidity, and alternative investment products to institutional clients like pension plans, endowments, and corporations.
- Workplace & Retirement Services: Administers stock plans and provides comprehensive retirement plan services for businesses and institutions.
- Annuity & Insurance Products: Sells various annuity and insurance products to individual clients.
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Morgan Stanley (MS) Major Customers
Morgan Stanley serves a diverse client base across its three segments. Given its significant Wealth Management segment, which caters directly to individual investors and small to medium-sized businesses, the company serves categories of customers rather than primarily listing other specific company names.
- Individual Investors: Clients seeking financial advisor-led or self-directed brokerage, investment advisory, wealth planning, and lending services through the Wealth Management segment.
- Small to Medium-sized Businesses: Businesses utilizing financial and wealth planning, workplace services, lending products, and retirement plan services offered by the Wealth Management segment.
- Institutional Clients and Corporations: This broad category includes corporations, governments, financial institutions, benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and third-party fund sponsors, served by the Institutional Securities and Investment Management segments for services such as capital raising, financial advisory, sales and trading, and investment management products.
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Ted Pick - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ted Pick became Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley in January 2025 and January 2024, respectively. He joined Morgan Stanley as an analyst in 1990 and has spent his entire professional career at the firm. He held various leadership roles including Head of Institutional Equities, Global Head of Sales and Trading, where he engineered a turnaround of the firm's Fixed Income Division, Co-President, Co-Head of Firm Strategy, and Head of the Institutional Securities Group.
Sharon Yeshaya - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Sharon Yeshaya became Chief Financial Officer of Morgan Stanley in June 2021 and serves as Executive Vice President. She began her career at Morgan Stanley in 2001 as an analyst in the Mergers & Acquisitions department. Her roles within the firm have included Head of Investor Relations, Chief of Staff in the Office of the Chairman and CEO, and Co-Head of New Product Origination for Derivative Structured Products.
James P. Gorman - Chairman Emeritus
James P. Gorman served as CEO of Morgan Stanley from January 2010 until December 2023 and Chairman from January 2012 until December 2023, before transitioning to Executive Chairman from January to December 2024 and Chairman Emeritus in January 2025. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2006 as the Head of Global Wealth Management and was instrumental in leading the merger of Morgan Stanley's wealth management business with Smith Barney in 2009, creating one of the largest wealth management platforms globally. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley, he held executive positions at Merrill Lynch and was a senior partner at McKinsey & Co. He began his career as an attorney in Melbourne, Australia.
Andy Saperstein - Co-President
Andy Saperstein is Co-President of Morgan Stanley, responsible for all Wealth and Investment Management channels, the U.S. Banks business, Firmwide Artificial Intelligence, and the Integrated Firm Management organizations. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2006 as COO of National Sales and became Head of U.S. Wealth Management following the acquisition of Smith Barney in 2009. Before joining Morgan Stanley, he was COO of the Direct Division at Merrill Lynch and a partner in the Financial Institutions Group of McKinsey & Company.
Dan Simkowitz - Co-President
Dan Simkowitz is Co-President of Morgan Stanley, responsible for the Institutional Securities Group. He began his career at Morgan Stanley in 1990 in the M&A department. He previously served as Co-Head of Global Capital Markets and was the lead capital markets partner for the firm's assignments with the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve during the 2008-2012 financial crisis. In 2016, he was appointed Head of Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and led the firm's acquisitions of Eaton Vance/Parametric and Mesa West, as well as the growth of its private markets and alternatives platform.
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- Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainties: Morgan Stanley's operations, particularly its Institutional Securities and Investment Management segments, are highly sensitive to global financial market conditions, economic downturns, and geopolitical events. Fluctuations in interest rates, equity markets, and commodity prices, as well as broader economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, can significantly impact the firm's trading revenues, asset valuations, and capital-raising activities.
- Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Exposure: As a large, global financial institution, Morgan Stanley is subject to extensive and complex laws, regulations, and governmental oversight across numerous jurisdictions. Non-compliance with these evolving legal and regulatory frameworks, including those related to capital requirements, liquidity, data privacy, and market conduct, could result in substantial fines, penalties, disgorgement, reputational damage, and restrictions on its business activities.
- Operational and Cybersecurity Threats: Morgan Stanley relies heavily on technology and complex systems for its global operations, handling vast amounts of sensitive client data. This exposes the firm to significant operational risks, including system failures, human error, and external threats such as cyberattacks and data breaches. Such incidents could lead to financial losses, disruption of services, reputational harm, and erosion of client trust.
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The proliferation of digital-first, low-cost or commission-free investment platforms and robo-advisors that directly compete with and aim to disrupt traditional wealth management and brokerage services, particularly impacting Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management segment.
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Morgan Stanley (MS) operates across three main segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The addressable markets for their key products and services are substantial and span globally across various regions.
Institutional Securities
This segment focuses on capital raising, financial advisory, and sales and trading services.
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Investment Banking Market:
- Globally, the investment banking market was valued at approximately $111.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $221.89 billion by 2033, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.0%. Another estimate places the global market at $110.12 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach $214.90 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 7.80%.
- North America held a valuation of $44.72 billion in 2025 and is considered the fastest-growing region, holding over 34% of the market share in 2023.
- The Asia Pacific market for investment banking was valued at $23.99 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to experience the highest CAGR during the forecast period.
- The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) market within the Middle East & Africa is expected to be $1.89 billion in 2025.
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Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory Market:
- The global M&A advisory market was valued at $27.946 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $34.802 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 2.5%. Other sources indicate a global market size of $26.50 billion in 2024, growing to $31.91 billion by 2033 with a 2.5% CAGR, and another report estimates the market at $50 billion in 2025 with a projected CAGR of 7% between 2025 and 2033. The global M&A deal value reached approximately $3.2 trillion in 2023.
- North America and Europe combined held a 70% share of the market in 2025. Specifically, the United States accounted for 38% of the global market share in 2023.
- The Asia-Pacific region contributed 22% in 2023 and is anticipated to witness the fastest growth rate. It represented 20.74% of the global market share in 2025.
- Africa is projected to have a high growth rate with a 5.0% CAGR, and the Middle East with a 3.1% CAGR.
-
Debt Underwriting Services Market:
- The global debt underwriting services market was valued at $27.63 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $38.88 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.0%. Another report estimated the market at $12.5 billion in 2023, projected to reach $27 billion by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.50%.
- North America is expected to dominate this market in 2025, accounting for approximately 45% of the global share.
- The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to witness the fastest growth, holding around 20% of the global share, driven by increasing infrastructure investments and urbanization.
- The Middle East and Africa region is gradually emerging, holding about 5% of the global share.
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Equity Underwriting:
- Global equity issuance totaled $504.8 billion in 2024. Through the first nine months of 2025, global equity issuance totaled US$527 billion.
- U.S. IPO activity was up 17% to US$30.4 billion through the first nine months of 2025.
- China recorded an 83% jump in IPOs to US$15.5 billion through the first nine months of 2025.
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Sales and Trading (Equity and Fixed Income):
- The global equity market capitalization increased to $126.7 trillion in 2024, with another source stating $127 trillion in 2024. It is expected to climb from US $139 trillion in 2024 to $200 trillion by 2030.
- The U.S. stock market alone accounted for $62.2 trillion in 2024, representing 49.1% of the total global equity value.
- Global fixed income markets outstanding increased to $145.1 trillion in 2024.
- The overall global capital markets exceeded $1 quadrillion in 2023.
Wealth Management
This segment provides brokerage, investment advisory, financial planning, lending, and retirement services to individuals and small to medium-sized businesses.
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Wealth Management Market:
- The global wealth management market was valued at $1.83 trillion in 2024 and is poised to grow to $5.95 trillion by 2033, with a CAGR of 14%. Another report indicates a value of $1.636 trillion in 2024, projected to surpass $4.893 trillion by 2034, at a CAGR of 10.6%.
- The total investable wealth worldwide is expected to exceed $481 trillion by 2030.
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Financial Advisory Services Market:
- The global financial advisory services market size was valued at $103.01 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to $174.33 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.02%. Other estimates include a market size of $85.1 billion in 2022, projected to reach $146.8 billion by 2032 (CAGR of 5.5%), and $134.81 billion in 2025, projected to reach $245.54 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 8.94%.
- North America dominated the financial advisory services market in 2020 and is expected to retain its leading position.
- The Asia-Pacific region is expected to witness significant growth and has emerged as the fastest-growing region.
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Wealth Management Platform Market:
- The global wealth management platform market size was valued at $3.73 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $9.99 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.40%.
- North America dominated this market with a 33.10% share in 2025.
- Asia Pacific is likely to be the fastest-growing market during the forecast period.
Investment Management
This segment provides equity, fixed income, liquidity, and alternative products to institutional and intermediary clients.
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Asset Management Market:
- The global asset management market was valued at $432.77 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $1,122.04 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 12.6%. Other sources indicate a global market size of $469 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $6 trillion by 2034 with a CAGR of 29.9%, and $458.02 billion in 2023, expected to reach $3,677.39 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 36.4%.
- The global asset management industry grew to a record-breaking $128 trillion in assets under management (AuM) in 2024. PwC estimates global AuM is projected to surge from US $139 trillion in 2024 to $200 trillion by 2030.
- Specifically, the global investment management market was recorded at $1.343 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach $2.487 trillion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 8.01%.
- North America held the dominant asset management market share of 47.00% in 2025 and remains the dominant market powerhouse.
- The Asia-Pacific region is the fastest-growing leader, projected to hold 21.4% of the global market in 2025.
- Europe represents a major asset management market.
-
Private Equity Market (Alternative Investments):
- The global private equity market size was valued at $6.749 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $20.242 trillion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.2%. Another report states a valuation of $6.92 billion in 2025, poised to grow to $16.19 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 11.2%.
- North America dominated the global private equity market, accounting for 48.3% of the market share in 2025.
- Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing private equity region.
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Expected Revenue Growth Drivers for Morgan Stanley (MS)
- Wealth Management Expansion and Net New Asset Growth: Morgan Stanley is strategically focused on expanding its Wealth Management segment, with an ambition to reach $10 trillion in total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management. This growth is anticipated through sustained net new asset (NNA) momentum, which supports recurring fee growth and reduces revenue cyclicality. The firm plans to achieve this by deepening existing client relationships through its financial advisor-led services, leveraging platforms like E-TRADE to attract and convert mass-affluent clients into advisory relationships, and continuously enhancing its product suites and client channels.
- Growth in Private Markets and Alternative Investments: A key strategic initiative involves expanding offerings in private credit and alternative investments. Following acquisitions like Eaton Vance, Morgan Stanley is building out its private credit and real estate platforms to cater to increasing institutional and high-net-worth client demand for non-correlated returns. This focus on private assets and alternatives is expected to be a significant driver of asset management revenue.
- Rebound in Investment Banking and Capital Markets Activity: There is an expectation for a rebound in investment banking and capital markets. This includes an anticipated increase in advisory services, equity underwriting, and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity. Despite a sometimes "complicated" macro backdrop, the firm's leadership has expressed cautious optimism about dealmaking, citing a strong pipeline of potential transactions and increased client engagement in areas like equity trading and structured products.
- Technology Investments and Artificial Intelligence (AI) Integration: Morgan Stanley is making significant multi-year investments in technology, including the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) tools across the enterprise. These investments are aimed at driving efficiency gains, enhancing client solutions, and unlocking long-term revenue opportunities. Specific applications include AI-assisted advice to increase advisor-client interaction time, improvements in trading and market-making margins through cloud and low-latency execution, and exploration of tokenization for private asset access.
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Share Repurchases
- Morgan Stanley reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, without a set expiration date, beginning in the third quarter of 2025.
- The firm repurchased $4.6 billion of its outstanding common stock in 2025 as part of its share repurchase program.
- A similar $20 billion multi-year share repurchase program was reauthorized in the third quarter of 2024 and 2023. In 2021, the company was authorized to buy back up to $10 billion of stock.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, Morgan Stanley acquired Security 101 and Olsson. Additionally, in January 2026, Morgan Stanley acquired EquityZen, a platform for trading shares of private companies, aligning with its strategy to deepen exposure to high-growth private firms and broaden investment opportunities for wealth-management clients.
- Morgan Stanley made 5 acquisitions in 2024 and 5 in 2023, including ClearMedi for $35 million and Valoriza Servicios Medioambientales for $789 million.
- The company is evaluating "tuck-in" acquisitions to bolster its core strategy in wealth and investment management or investment banking, aiming to expand capabilities, improve operational efficiency, and enter new markets.
Capital Expenditures
- Morgan Stanley's capital expenditures were -$2.31 billion in 2021, -$3.08 billion in 2022, -$3.41 billion in 2023, and -$3.46 billion in 2024.
- Capital expenditures are considered essential for maintaining and growing the business, specifically for investments in long-term assets such as property, equipment, and technology.
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 176.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 322.1 |
| Rev LTM | 86,416 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -20,582 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -29,294 |
| CFO LTM | -15,904 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -26,587 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -24.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -43.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional Securities (IS) | 33,080 | 28,080 | 23,060 | 24,393 | 29,833 |
| Wealth Management (WM) | 31,754 | 28,420 | 26,268 | 24,417 | 24,243 |
| Investment Management (IM) | 6,525 | 5,861 | 5,370 | 5,375 | 6,220 |
| Intersegment Eliminations (I/E) | -714 | -600 | -555 | -517 | -541 |
| Total | 70,645 | 61,761 | 54,143 | 53,668 | 59,755 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional Securities (IS) | 3,846 | -58 | 1,262 | 3,724 | 3,608 |
| Wealth Management (WM) | 2,085 | 2,985 | 1,709 | ||
| Investment Management (IM) | 364 | 664 | 685 | 827 | 491 |
| Credit Services | 1,272 | 1,093 | |||
| Individual Investor Group | 371 | 454 | |||
| Total | 6,295 | 3,591 | 3,656 | 6,194 | 5,646 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional Securities (IS) | 8,650 | 6,666 | 3,453 | 5,242 | 8,957 |
| Wealth Management (WM) | 7,130 | 5,888 | 5,022 | 5,139 | 4,734 |
| Investment Management (IM) | 1,122 | 859 | 639 | 660 | 1,347 |
| Intersegment Eliminations (I/E) | -41 | -23 | -27 | -12 | -4 |
| Total | 16,861 | 13,390 | 9,087 | 11,029 | 15,034 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional Securities (IS) | 969,553 | 796,608 | 810,506 | 789,837 | 792,135 |
| Wealth Management (WM) | 433,017 | 400,848 | 365,168 | 373,305 | 378,438 |
| Investment Management (IM) | 17,700 | 17,615 | 18,019 | 17,089 | 17,567 |
| Total | 1,420,270 | 1,215,071 | 1,193,693 | 1,180,231 | 1,188,140 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $213.93 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 333.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/23/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $203.73 | $177.15 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.0% | 20.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.2% | 26.4% |
| Downside Capture | 110.92 | 140.57 |
| Upside Capture | 155.03 | 160.28 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 58.7% | 63.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.85 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | 0.12 | 0.59 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 1.34 |
| Up Capture | 133% | 159% | 164% | 202% | 215% | 263% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 39 | 72 | 147 | 419 |
| Down Capture | 108% | 123% | 127% | 147% | 127% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 24 | 53 | 105 | 331 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS | 55.6% | 26.4% | 1.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 6.9% | 14.7% | 0.24 | 69.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.5% | 1.29 | 63.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.1% | 27.7% | 0.73 | 17.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.3% | 18.6% | 0.90 | -10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 22.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.7% | -1.15 | 37.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS | 23.6% | 28.7% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.6% | 18.6% | 0.44 | 80.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 69.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.25 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 49.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 53.8% | 0.41 | 31.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS | 26.8% | 31.5% | 0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.7% | 22.2% | 0.56 | 86.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 74.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.1% | 0.61 | -2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 26.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 53.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.0% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 20.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/15/2026 | 4.5% | 3.3% | 6.3% |
| 1/15/2026 | 5.8% | 1.3% | -4.8% |
| 10/15/2025 | 4.7% | 2.5% | 10.1% |
| 7/16/2025 | -1.3% | -1.1% | 5.1% |
| 4/11/2025 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 20.2% |
| 1/16/2025 | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| 10/16/2024 | 6.5% | 5.4% | 19.2% |
| 7/16/2024 | 0.9% | -2.7% | -7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 13 | 18 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -2.9% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.6% | 21.4% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -10.9% | -7.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/15/2026 | 4.5% | 3.3% | 6.3% |
| 1/15/2026 | 5.8% | 1.3% | -4.8% |
| 10/15/2025 | 4.7% | 2.5% | 10.1% |
| 7/16/2025 | -1.3% | -1.1% | 5.1% |
| 4/11/2025 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 20.2% |
| 1/16/2025 | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| 10/16/2024 | 6.5% | 5.4% | 19.2% |
| 7/16/2024 | 0.9% | -2.7% | -7.3% |
| 1/16/2024 | -4.2% | -4.4% | -5.5% |
| 10/18/2023 | -6.8% | -10.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/18/2023 | 6.4% | 9.6% | 0.7% |
| 4/19/2023 | 0.7% | -2.0% | -5.8% |
| 1/17/2023 | 5.9% | 6.0% | 10.6% |
| 10/14/2022 | -5.1% | -3.4% | 15.6% |
| 7/14/2022 | -0.4% | 9.1% | 21.4% |
| 4/14/2022 | 0.7% | 5.7% | -3.4% |
| 1/19/2022 | 1.8% | 5.4% | 8.3% |
| 10/14/2021 | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| 7/15/2021 | 0.2% | 3.5% | 14.0% |
| 4/16/2021 | -2.8% | -3.1% | 8.5% |
| 1/20/2021 | -0.2% | -5.0% | 0.3% |
| 10/15/2020 | 1.3% | -0.5% | 10.5% |
| 7/16/2020 | 2.5% | -0.7% | 2.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 13 | 18 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -2.9% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.6% | 21.4% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -10.9% | -7.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/15/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Dividends | 1 | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 1 for Q1 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grossman, Eric F | Chief Legal/Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 190.75 | 11,118 | 2,120,758 | 32,313,613 | Form |
| 2 | Simkowitz, Daniel A | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 189.24 | 14,690 | 2,779,987 | 69,225,666 | Form |
| 3 | Saperstein, Andrew M | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 188.59 | 51,668 | 9,744,322 | 53,210,619 | Form |
| 4 | Crawley, Mandell | Chief Client Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 188.22 | 16,129 | 3,035,755 | 11,769,010 | Form |
| 5 | Simkowitz, Daniel A | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 182.61 | 32,968 | 6,020,313 | 65,254,583 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grossman, Eric F | Chief Legal/Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 190.75 | 11,118 | 2,120,758 | 32,313,613 | Form |
| 2 | Simkowitz, Daniel A | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 189.24 | 14,690 | 2,779,987 | 69,225,666 | Form |
| 3 | Saperstein, Andrew M | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 188.59 | 51,668 | 9,744,322 | 53,210,619 | Form |
| 4 | Crawley, Mandell | Chief Client Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 188.22 | 16,129 | 3,035,755 | 11,769,010 | Form |
| 5 | Simkowitz, Daniel A | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 182.61 | 32,968 | 6,020,313 | 65,254,583 | Form |
| 6 | Yeshaya, Sharon | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1222026 | 185.77 | 15,838 | 2,942,176 | 25,135,067 | Form |
| 7 | Smith, Charles A | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 1222026 | 182.08 | 8,500 | 1,547,686 | 21,690,840 | Form |
| 8 | Saperstein, Andrew M | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 1222026 | 183.62 | 30,330 | 5,569,086 | 51,500,915 | Form |
| 9 | Pizzi, Michael A | Head Technology & Operations | Direct | Sell | 1222026 | 184.55 | 20,000 | 3,691,000 | 23,598,832 | Form |
| 10 | Grossman, Eric F | Chief Legal/Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 1222026 | 184.00 | 21,555 | 3,966,137 | 31,465,072 | Form |
| 11 | Crawley, Mandell | Chief Client Officer | Direct | Sell | 1222026 | 183.45 | 7,860 | 1,441,879 | 12,618,919 | Form |
| 12 | Pick, Edward | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10312025 | 164.34 | 100,000 | 16,434,440 | 94,495,732 | Form |
| 13 | Yeshaya, Sharon | Chief Financial Officer | LLC on behalf of Trust | Sell | 7182025 | 139.81 | 25,583 | Form | ||
| 14 | Smith, Charles A | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 140.30 | 20,000 | 2,805,918 | 16,728,762 | Form |
| 15 | Simkowitz, Daniel A | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 141.13 | 29,000 | 4,092,628 | 56,323,722 | Form |
| 16 | Saperstein, Andrew M | Co-President | Grantor Retained Annuity Trust | Sell | 7182025 | 140.97 | 43,566 | Form | ||
| 17 | Pizzi, Michael A | Head Technology & Operations | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 140.62 | 18,000 | 2,531,077 | 19,180,911 | Form |
| 18 | Grossman, Eric F | Chief Legal/Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 141.12 | 12,000 | 1,693,400 | 26,307,009 | Form |
MS Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 3.83x is exceptionally attractive. The analysis indicates that while the market is pricing MS fairly relative to its peer, it is under-appreciating the durability of the Wealth Management flywheel and the firm's demonstrated ability to gain share in a cyclical recovery. The primary regulatory risk, while significant, is outweighed by the strong fundamental momentum and widening competitive moat, creating a high-conviction long opportunity.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityWhile Morgan Stanley has a large, stable Wealth Management business, a significant portion of its revenue and earnings volatility is driven by the Institutional Securities division, which is highly sensitive to capital market cycles. The current investment debate heavily weighs the rebound in M&A and underwriting, fitting the 'Cyclical' archetype's focus on cycle timing and normalized earnings power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis rests on Morgan Stanley's successful transformation into a more durable franchise, where the massive, high-margin Wealth Management (WM) division acts as a stable foundation. This stability underwrites the firm's ability to aggressively gain market share during the current cyclical recovery in the Institutional Securities (IS) division. The firm is capturing the upside of the cycle while benefiting from a structurally higher quality of earnings.
- Wealth Management generated record revenues of $31.8B in 2025, providing a stable earnings base.
- The firm attracted $350B in Net New Assets (NNA) in FY2025, fueling the WM growth engine.
- Investment Banking revenue surged 47% in Q4 2025, indicating a strong cyclical rebound.
- Morgan Stanley gained 100 basis points of market share in Institutional Securities in 2025.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a broad, escalating investigation by multiple federal agencies (SEC, OCC, Treasury) into the client vetting processes within the strategically critical Wealth Management division. A negative outcome could result in significant fines, reputational damage, and the imposition of restrictive compliance protocols, which would slow the growth of the firm's primary earnings engine.
- Active and ongoing investigations by multiple federal agencies, including the SEC and Treasury Department offices.
- The probe focuses on the core function of vetting clients and their sources of wealth, which could indicate a systemic issue.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Wealth Management Net New Assets (NNA) | > $75 Billion / Quarter | This is the primary indicator of the health of the firm's main growth engine and its ability to continue taking share in the wealth market. |
| Institutional Securities Revenue YoY Growth | > 10% YoY Growth | Confirms that the cyclical recovery in capital markets is intact and that the firm is participating in the upside, which is crucial for near-term earnings beats. |
| Provision for Credit Losses | Below Consensus Estimates | A material increase would signal a turn in the credit cycle, representing a significant macro risk to the entire thesis and sector. |
The Durable Annuity vs. The Cyclical Engine
BULL VIEW
The 'Integrated Firm' is working. Massive Net New Asset inflows into Wealth Management create a durable earnings base, while a resurgent capital markets cycle supercharges growth.
CORE TENSION
Can the stable, high-margin Wealth Management annuity offset the escalating regulatory risks and the inherent cyclicality of the rebounding Institutional Securities business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The escalating regulatory scrutiny from the SEC, OCC, and Treasury into the core Wealth Management unit, a new and structural risk, currently outweighs the strong but cyclical 47% rebound in Investment Banking revenue.
BEAR VIEW
A multi-agency regulatory probe into the core Wealth unit threatens growth and brand, while a looming credit cycle downturn will expose the cyclicality of Investment Banking revenues.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Mid-April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Provision for Credit Losses vs. consensus forecasts and any disclosure or commentary on the ongoing regulatory wealth management probe. |
Anytime (Next 1-6 Months) | Regulatory Investigation Update Watch: Any press release from the SEC or DOJ announcing a Wells Notice, settlement, or fine related to wealth management client vetting. |
Monthly (Q1-Q2 2026) | Global M&A Volume Data Watch: Year-over-year change in monthly M&A and IPO activity data from providers like Dealogic. A sharp slowdown would be a negative leading indicator. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
9/24/2025 | Macro-Driven Price Action Details: With no major company-specific news, the stock pulled back as part of a broader market sell-off related to concerns over hawkish central bank policy and rising bond yields. | Slight -1.8% pullback $158.91 -> $156.06 |
10/15/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Morgan Stanley reported strong Q3 results that beat analyst expectations, driven by continued momentum in its Wealth and Investment Management divisions, calming fears of a slowdown. | Rose significantly by 4.7% $153.55 -> $160.77 |
10/27/2025 | Insider Stock Sale Details: Incoming CEO Edward Pick sold 100,000 shares for approximately $16.4 million. The stock shrugged off the sale, posting a modest gain amid positive market sentiment. | Modest 1.3% gain $161.97 -> $164.11 |
12/16/2025 | Regulatory Investigation Reports Details: News reports highlighted a broadening federal investigation by multiple agencies into Morgan Stanley's wealth management client vetting processes, creating a new overhang for the stock. | Muted (-1.0%) $175.54 -> $173.84 |
1/1/2026 | CEO Transition Details: Ted Pick officially succeeded James Gorman as Chief Executive Officer, marking a key leadership transition for the firm. The market reacted positively to the seamless transition. | Rose significantly by 2.5% $176.55 -> $180.90 |
1/15/2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Details: Reported a significant beat on EPS and revenue, driven by a 47% surge in Investment Banking revenue and record Net New Assets of $122.3B in Wealth Management. | Surged +5.8% $179.78 -> $190.18 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is moderate and compressing. However, the deeply bearish sentiment, driven by a major regulatory probe and poor cash flow, combined with only medium visibility, lowers conviction. We cap exposure to a conservative 'watchlist' size until the regulatory risk is resolved.
Diversification Alternatives
SCHW
SECTORSimpler business model focused on scalable asset gathering. Avoids the G-SIB regulatory burden and cyclical investment banking risks facing Morgan Stanley.
LPLA
INDUSTRYA pure-play on the secular growth of third-party wealth management. Asset-light model avoids the balance sheet risk and trading volatility inherent in Morgan Stanley's business.
Repricing Catalyst
Wealth Management
$33.6B TTM (51.5% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Who Pays & How
Competition
Institutional Securities
$31.6B TTM (48.5% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Who Pays & How
Competition
Morgan Stanley — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
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| American Banker |
| The Banker |
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External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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