Merck (MRK)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $91.99 | Market Cap: $229.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Merck (MRK)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $91.99Market Cap: $229.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.7%, FCF Yield is 5.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 35% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.7%, FCF Yield is 5.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MRK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate 18.2% movement in Merck (MRK) stock from July 31, 2025, to today:
1. Merck Exceeded Q3 2025 Earnings Expectations.
On October 30, 2025, Merck announced strong third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.36. The company's quarterly revenue also increased by 3.7% year-over-year to $17.28 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $17 billion. Furthermore, Merck raised and narrowed its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance, signaling confidence in sustained growth.
2. FDA Approved Subcutaneous Keytruda (Keytruda QLEX).
In September 2025, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved KEYTRUDA QLEX, a subcutaneous (SC) injection formulation of its blockbuster cancer drug, for most solid tumor indications. This was followed by another FDA approval in October 2025 for certain head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. This new formulation is expected to extend patent protection for Keytruda and offer greater convenience for patients, contributing to positive market sentiment. The European Medicines Agency's CHMP also adopted a positive opinion for the SC administration of KEYTRUDA.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MRK Return | -7% | 2% | 49% | 1% | -6% | -5% | 26% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 27% | 3% | -16% | 6% | 21% | 55% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MRK Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 65% | 53% | 38% | 50% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MRK Max Drawdown | -26% | -12% | -4% | -8% | -10% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -7% | -12% | -25% | -10% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RHHBY, JNJ, ABBV, PFE, BMY. See MRK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MRK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 784 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2006 days | 1480 days |
Compare to RHHBY, JNJ, ABBV, PFE, BMY
In The Past
Merck's stock fell -20.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -20.2% loss requires a 25.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MRK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -10.1% | -10.1% | -10.1% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.0% | -22.0% | -22.3% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.7% | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -7.0% |
| 07312025 | MRK | Merck | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 17.6% | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| 01312025 | MRK | Merck | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -18.3% | -5.3% | -25.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -10.1% | -10.1% | -10.1% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.0% | -22.0% | -22.3% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.7% | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -7.0% |
| 07312025 | MRK | Merck | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 17.6% | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| 01312025 | MRK | Merck | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -18.3% | -5.3% | -25.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Merck
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 228.2 |
| Rev LTM | 62,786 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15,417 |
| FCF LTM | 15,302 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,685 |
| CFO LTM | 17,065 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17,506 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 228.2 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 12.4 |
| P/E | 16.5 |
| P/CFO | 13.4 |
| Total Yield | 11.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -68.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.3% | -2.5% | |
| 7/29/2025 | -1.7% | -5.0% | 1.1% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.4% | 8.2% | -1.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | -9.1% | -13.4% | -6.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.4% | -3.9% | -3.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | -9.8% | -12.1% | -8.8% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -3.6% | -2.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.8% | -13.4% | -8.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
