Magnite (MGNI)
Market Price (11/25/2025): $14.97 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Magnite (MGNI)
Market Price (11/25/2025): $14.97Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.6% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MGNI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -35.9% stock movement for Magnite (MGNI) from July 31, 2025, to November 25, 2025:
**1. High Valuation Concerns Amidst Inconsistent Growth:** Magnite's stock maintained a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, reported at 33.1x as of November 18, 2025. Despite periods of strong earnings, the company's overall earnings growth has been inconsistent over a longer timeframe, potentially leading investors to re-evaluate the high valuation and contribute to a stock price correction.
**2. Increased Capital Expenditures Impacting Cash Flow:** Magnite's operating cash flow experienced a slight decrease in Q3 2025, primarily due to a significant rise in capital expenditures to $18.1 million, compared to $10.4 million in Q3 2024. Projected full-year 2025 capital expenditures of approximately $80 million could have created investor concerns regarding short-term cash generation.
**3. Broader Industry Headwinds and Macroeconomic Uncertainty:** The media and entertainment sector, in which Magnite operates, generally underperformed during the period, with share prices declining on average. The overall economic outlook for 2025 remained clouded by potential trade policy changes and corporate tax discussions, which likely impacted business confidence and growth across the industry, including Magnite.
**4. Uncertainty Surrounding the Google Ad Tech Lawsuit:** While a federal court ruled that Google illegally monopolized ad server and exchange markets in April 2025, the "remedies phase" of Magnite's lawsuit against Google was ongoing during this period, with hearings concluding in early October and closing arguments scheduled for mid-November 2025. The lingering uncertainty regarding the final outcome and potential benefits or challenges from this significant legal action may have weighed on Magnite's stock performance.
**5. Bearish Technical Signals and Short-Term Price Predictions:** Throughout the latter part of this period, various technical indicators and short-term forecasts for Magnite's stock pointed to a bearish trend. As of November 16, 2025, one algorithm predicted a -12.91% change over the subsequent month, and by November 19, 2025, the general stock forecast sentiment was bearish with a prediction of a -10.28% drop by December 19, 2025. These technical signals and negative short-term outlooks likely contributed to the downward pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MGNI Return | 276% | -43% | -39% | -12% | 70% | -7% | 81% |
| Peers Return | -34% | 67% | -48% | -47% | -69% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MGNI Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 50% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MGNI Max Drawdown | -49% | -46% | -67% | -39% | -9% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -1% | -56% | -51% | |||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MGNI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 969.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 214.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 499.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 120 days |
Compare to DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP
In The Past
Magnite's stock fell -90.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -90.6% loss requires a 969.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MGNI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -24.2% | -24.2% | -25.6% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -41.0% | -41.0% | -43.7% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -21.6% | -21.6% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -19.5% | -19.5% | -19.5% |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -20.3% | -20.3% | -20.3% | |
| 08312023 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 45.7% | 67.2% | -21.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -24.2% | -24.2% | -25.6% |
| 10032025 | CABO | Cable One | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -41.0% | -41.0% | -43.7% |
| 09122025 | DV | DoubleVerify | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -21.6% | -21.6% | -27.9% |
| 07312025 | CMCSA | Comcast | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -19.5% | -19.5% | -19.5% |
| 05312025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -20.3% | -20.3% | -20.3% | |
| 08312023 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 45.7% | 67.2% | -21.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Magnite
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 718 |
| Op Inc LTM | 83 |
| FCF LTM | 151 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 144 |
| CFO LTM | 199 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 183 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 22.2 |
| P/E | 36.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -21.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -39.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -31.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -8.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -42.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -13.1% | -16.9% | |
| 8/6/2025 | -3.2% | 1.6% | 10.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 19.8% | 33.5% | 41.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -1.8% | -14.1% | -27.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.9% | 23.5% | 24.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | -1.2% | -2.9% | 1.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.7% | 10.1% | 45.3% |
| 2/28/2024 | 14.8% | 11.0% | 2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 14.8% | 10.5% | 19.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -16.3% | -29.5% |
| Max Positive | 65.6% | 94.1% | 92.0% |
| Max Negative | -35.1% | -32.4% | -45.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |