MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $2008.0 | Market Cap: $101.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $2008.0Market Cap: $101.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.9x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.4% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.4% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.9x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MELI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025, MercadoLibre (MELI) stock experienced a -14.4% movement due to several key factors:
1. MercadoLibre reported a significant earnings per share (EPS) miss for the third quarter of 2025. The company announced Q3 2025 earnings on October 29, 2025, with an EPS of $8.32, falling short of the consensus estimate of $9.88 by $1.56.
2. The company also missed analysts' expectations for its Q2 2025 GAAP profit. On August 4, 2025, MercadoLibre reported a GAAP profit of $10.31 per share, which was 13.3% below the analysts' consensus estimate of $11.89.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MELI Return | 193% | -20% | -37% | 86% | 8% | 19% | 255% |
| Peers Return | 95% | 23% | -30% | 24% | 34% | 15% | 216% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MELI Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 37% | 63% | 60% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MELI Max Drawdown | -22% | -37% | -55% | -2% | -14% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -10% | -41% | -12% | -11% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, EBAY, ETSY. See MELI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MELI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 223.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 791 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 851.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 860 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, EBAY, ETSY
In The Past
MercadoLibre's stock fell -69.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/20/2021. A -69.1% loss requires a 223.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MELI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.0% | 2.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.8% | -1.8% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.0% | 2.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.8% | -1.8% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MercadoLibre
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 170.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 256.9 |
| Rev LTM | 150,714 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,758 |
| FCF LTM | 8,224 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,720 |
| CFO LTM | 11,583 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,542 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 256.9 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 28.0 |
| P/E | 37.1 |
| P/CFO | 20.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 103.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 40.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commerce services | 6,754 | ||||
| Financial services and income | 4,317 | ||||
| Credit revenues | 2,546 | ||||
| Commerce products sales | 1,447 | ||||
| Fintech products sales | 43 | ||||
| Commerce revenues | 5,808 | 4,635 | 2,560 | 1,346 | |
| Fintech revenues | 4,729 | 2,434 | 1,414 | 950 | |
| Total | 15,107 | 10,537 | 7,069 | 3,973 | 2,296 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | -8.8% | -8.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 28.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.3% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.4% | -12.2% | -13.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 15 | 11 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.1% | 12.6% | 18.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -8.8% | -12.7% |
| Max Positive | 19.6% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Calemzuk Emiliano | 12022024 | Sell | 1984.98 | 50 | 99,249 | 472,425 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |