Medtronic (MDT)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $95.97 | Market Cap: $123.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Medtronic (MDT)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $95.97Market Cap: $123.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.9% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 26x |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 7.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.3 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.9% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 19% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 7.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.3 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 26x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MDT Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
MDT Return | 6% | -10% | -23% | 10% | 0% | 22% | -1% |
Peers Return | 7% | 16% | -11% | 4% | 11% | 9% | 39% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
MDT Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 58% | 58% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
MDT Max Drawdown | -36% | -14% | -25% | -8% | -5% | -0% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -5% | -25% | -14% | -8% | -7% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JNJ, ABT, BSX, SYK, BAX. See MDT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | MDT | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -48.6% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 94.7% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -39.9% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 66.3% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 382 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -17.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 185 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -57.9% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 137.3% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1695 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Medtronic's stock fell -48.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/8/2021. A -48.6% loss requires a 94.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MDT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADMA | ADMA Biologics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -4.6% |
09302025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.8% |
09262025 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.1% |
09192025 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.2% | 11.2% | -4.3% |
09052025 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.4% | -4.4% | -8.0% |
09302022 | MDT | Medtronic | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 0.4% | -5.7% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADMA | ADMA Biologics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -4.6% |
09302025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.8% |
09262025 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.1% |
09192025 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.2% | 11.2% | -4.3% |
09052025 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.4% | -4.4% | -8.0% |
09302022 | MDT | Medtronic | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Medtronic
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 113.89 |
Mkt Cap | 145.0 |
Rev LTM | 29,009 |
Op Inc LTM | 5,665 |
FCF LTM | 4,664 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 4,023 |
CFO LTM | 5,956 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 5,180 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
Rev Chg Q | 7.9% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 145.0 |
P/S | 5.2 |
P/EBIT | 28.6 |
P/E | 23.4 |
P/CFO | 22.5 |
Total Yield | 4.8% |
Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 0.2% |
3M Rtn | 0.4% |
6M Rtn | 6.4% |
12M Rtn | 10.6% |
3Y Rtn | 28.7% |
1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
3M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
6M Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
12M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -52.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cardiovascular | 11,831 | 11,522 | 11,368 | 10,772 | 10,468 |
Neuroscience | 9,406 | 8,959 | 8,784 | 8,195 | 7,725 |
Medical Surgical | 8,417 | 7,989 | 8,469 | 8,737 | 8,352 |
Diabetes | 2,488 | 2,262 | 2,338 | 2,413 | 2,368 |
Other operating segment | 221 | 495 | 727 | ||
Total | 32,363 | 31,227 | 31,686 | 30,117 | 28,913 |
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cardiovascular | 4,474 | 4,522 | 4,596 | 3,850 | 3,719 |
Neuroscience | 3,940 | 3,712 | 3,858 | 3,162 | 2,915 |
Medical Surgical | 3,170 | 3,048 | 3,698 | 3,021 | 3,044 |
Diabetes | 394 | 383 | 588 | 598 | 546 |
Currency | 68 | 465 | 70 | -47 | |
Other operating segment | 10 | -89 | -31 | ||
Medical device regulations | -119 | -150 | -102 | -83 | -48 |
Certain litigation charges, net | -149 | 30 | -95 | -118 | -313 |
Restructuring and associated costs | -389 | -647 | -335 | -617 | -441 |
Stock-based compensation | -393 | -355 | -358 | ||
Acquisition and divestiture-related items | -777 | -345 | -838 | 15 | -66 |
Centralized distribution costs | -1,609 | -1,558 | -1,741 | -1,830 | -1,420 |
Amortization of intangible assets | -1,693 | -1,698 | -1,733 | -1,783 | -1,756 |
Corporate | -1,784 | -1,763 | -1,724 | -1,577 | -1,239 |
Commitments to the Medtronic Foundation and Medtronic LABS | -70 | 0 | 0 | ||
In-process research and development (IPR&D) charges | -101 | -31 | -25 | ||
Divestiture and separation-related items | 0 | ||||
Impairment of abandoned intangible assets | -76 | ||||
Mechanical Circulatory Support (MCS) Impairments / Costs | 0 | ||||
Contribution to Medtronic Foundation | -80 | ||||
Debt tender premium and other charges | 7 | ||||
Exit of businesses | -52 | ||||
Total | 5,143 | 5,485 | 5,752 | 4,484 | 4,791 |
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Medical Surgical | 33,586 | 39,666 | |||
Neuroscience | 18,270 | 16,850 | |||
Corporate | 17,455 | 16,164 | |||
Cardiovascular | 16,128 | 14,844 | |||
Diabetes | 3,996 | 3,165 | |||
Other operating segment | 547 | ||||
Total | 89,982 | 90,689 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/19/2025 | -3.1% | -0.8% | 1.9% |
5/21/2025 | -2.3% | -5.9% | -0.0% |
2/18/2025 | -7.3% | -2.8% | -0.6% |
11/19/2024 | -3.0% | -2.1% | -8.6% |
8/20/2024 | 0.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
5/23/2024 | -5.1% | -6.0% | -5.5% |
2/20/2024 | 1.7% | -0.9% | -0.4% |
11/21/2023 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.1% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 10 | 7 | 8 |
# Negative | 11 | 14 | 13 |
Median Positive | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% |
Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.7% | -4.2% |
Max Positive | 4.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% |
Max Negative | -7.3% | -8.7% | -13.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
7312025 | 8262025 | 10-Q 7/25/2025 |
4302025 | 6202025 | 10-K 4/25/2025 |
1312025 | 2252025 | 10-Q 1/24/2025 |
10312024 | 11262024 | 10-Q 10/25/2024 |
7312024 | 8272024 | 10-Q 7/26/2024 |
4302024 | 6202024 | 10-K 4/26/2024 |
1312024 | 2272024 | 10-Q 1/26/2024 |
10312023 | 11302023 | 10-Q 10/27/2023 |
7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/28/2023 |
4302023 | 6222023 | 10-K 4/28/2023 |
1312023 | 3012023 | 10-Q 1/27/2023 |
10312022 | 12012022 | 10-Q 10/28/2022 |
7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/29/2022 |
4302022 | 6232022 | 10-K 4/29/2022 |
1312022 | 3032022 | 10-Q 1/28/2022 |
10312021 | 12022021 | 10-Q 10/29/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Jellison William R | 8252025 | Buy | 92.73 | 2,500 | 231,825 | 231,825 | Form |
External Quote Links
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