Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Market Price (11/11/2025): $55.2 | Market Cap: $29.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Market Price (11/11/2025): $55.2Market Cap: $29.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 631x |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.5% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Edge AI, Industrial Robotics, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Edge AI, Industrial Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 631x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MCHP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Below are the key points explaining the approximate -17.5% movement in Microchip Technology (MCHP) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 11, 2025:
1. Disappointing Q4 CY2025 Revenue Guidance.
Microchip Technology provided a revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of Calendar Year 2025 (Q4 CY2025) at approximately $1.13 billion at the midpoint, which fell short of Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.18 billion. This 4.3% miss on the forecast was a significant factor in the stock's decline.
2. Weak Q4 CY2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance.
In addition to revenue, the company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance for Q4 CY2025 was set at $0.37 at the midpoint, which was below the analyst consensus of $0.39. This further contributed to a negative outlook among investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCHP Return | 34% | 27% | -18% | 31% | -35% | -1% | 18% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 33% | -24% | 31% | -2% | 35% | 127% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCHP Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 25% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 62% | 37% | 60% | 43% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCHP Max Drawdown | -47% | -4% | -35% | -2% | -37% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -3% | -34% | -8% | -13% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MU, TXN, ADI, NXPI, DIOD. See MCHP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/10/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCHP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 169 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 422 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1745 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MU, TXN, ADI, NXPI, DIOD
In The Past
Microchip Technology's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MCHP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -4.1% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.2% | -2.2% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 10.8% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| 10312022 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 23.2% | 17.7% | -3.7% |
| 04302022 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.6% | 13.9% | -13.5% |
| 03312020 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 52.7% | 131.9% | -7.4% |
| 03312019 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.0% | -15.5% | -31.7% |
| 09302018 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.1% | 19.8% | -22.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -4.1% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.2% | -2.2% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 10.8% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| 10312022 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 23.2% | 17.7% | -3.7% |
| 04302022 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.6% | 13.9% | -13.5% |
| 03312020 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 52.7% | 131.9% | -7.4% |
| 03312019 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.0% | -15.5% | -31.7% |
| 09302018 | MCHP | Microchip Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.1% | 19.8% | -22.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Microchip Technology
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 182.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 83.2 |
| Rev LTM | 11,216 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,815 |
| FCF LTM | 1,719 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,770 |
| CFO LTM | 3,241 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,705 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 83.2 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| P/EBIT | 26.9 |
| P/E | 31.1 |
| P/CFO | 21.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -5.2% | ||
| 8/7/2025 | -6.6% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 12.6% | 23.7% | 39.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -2.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | -1.8% | -10.4% | -21.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -10.6% | -8.4% | -2.1% |
| 5/6/2024 | -1.8% | -1.3% | 1.0% |
| 2/1/2024 | -1.6% | -1.5% | 2.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.4% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 24.3% | 39.6% |
| Max Negative | -10.6% | -10.4% | -21.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5232025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5232024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5252023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5202022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | CHAPMAN MATTHEW W | 8272025 | Sell | 68.25 | 10,000 | 682,550 | 2,093,040 | Form | |
| 1 | Bjornholt James Eric | SENIOR VP AND CFO | 8272025 | Sell | 69.14 | 3,053 | 211,084 | 2,372,401 | Form |
| 2 | Bjornholt James Eric | SENIOR VP AND CFO | 5272025 | Sell | 55.78 | 2,015 | 112,397 | 1,913,979 | Form |
| 3 | Johnson Karlton D | 5222025 | Sell | 60.69 | 494 | 29,981 | 210,473 | Form | |
| 4 | Bjornholt James Eric | SENIOR VP AND CFO | 2272025 | Sell | 60.88 | 3,724 | 226,717 | 2,025,599 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |