Marriott International (MAR)
Market Price (4/5/2026): $331.99 | Market Cap: $89.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Marriott International (MAR)
Market Price (4/5/2026): $331.99Market Cap: $89.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x Key risksMAR key risks include [1] a significant total debt load of approximately $16.0 billion, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
| Key risksMAR key risks include [1] a significant total debt load of approximately $16.0 billion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong 2026 Financial Guidance and Capital Returns to Shareholders.
Marriott International provided a favorable outlook for 2026, projecting worldwide Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) to increase by 1.5% to 2.5%, alongside net rooms growth of 4.5% to 5%. This robust guidance, delivered with the Q4 2025 earnings report on February 10, 2026, also included a commitment to return over $4.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2026, building on the $4.0 billion returned in 2025. These projections signal strong operational performance and a continued focus on shareholder value.
2. Robust International Market Performance and Development Pipeline Expansion.
The company experienced significant growth in its international markets, with RevPAR increasing by 6.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, offsetting a slight decline of 0.1% in the U.S. & Canada segment. Marriott's global development pipeline reached a record high of nearly 610,000 rooms across approximately 4,100 properties by year-end 2025, with over half of these rooms planned for international markets, which have historically shown stronger RevPAR growth. Net rooms grew over 4.3% from year-end 2024.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.2% change in MAR stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 309.64 | 331.93 | 7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,925 | 26,186 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 9.9% | -1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.2 | 34.3 | 6.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 272 | 269 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAR | 7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.4% | 53.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.0% change in MAR stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 259.32 | 331.93 | 28.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,691 | 26,186 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.6% | 9.9% | 3.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.8 | 34.3 | 19.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 274 | 269 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAR | 28.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 35.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.6% | 47.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.7% change in MAR stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 235.97 | 331.93 | 40.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,100 | 26,186 | 4.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.5% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.7 | 34.3 | 23.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 269 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAR | 40.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 66.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.2% | 71.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 105.9% change in MAR stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 161.18 | 331.93 | 105.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,773 | 26,186 | 26.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.4% | 9.9% | -12.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.6 | 34.3 | 58.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 317 | 269 | 17.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 105.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAR | 105.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 59.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 47.9% | 61.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MAR Return | 25% | -9% | 53% | 25% | 12% | 8% | 163% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -19% | 21% | 19% | -6% | -14% | 24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MAR Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 54% | 58% | 52% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MAR Max Drawdown | -12% | -19% | -1% | -6% | -24% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -31% | -4% | -7% | -26% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HLT, H, CHH, MTN, AHMA. See MAR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MAR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 382 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 358 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 315.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,919 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HLT, H, CHH, MTN, AHMA
In The Past
Marriott International's stock fell -30.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -30.1% loss requires a 43.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Marriott International (MAR)
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- Hotel Accommodation: Providing lodging, dining, and other hospitality services to guests across its diverse portfolio of hotel brands.
- Hotel Franchising and Licensing: Offering its established hotel brands and operational systems to third-party owners who operate properties under a Marriott brand.
- Branded Residential Properties: Developing, managing, or licensing luxury residential units and services, often integrated with or adjacent to its hotel properties.
- Timeshare Properties and Vacation Ownership: Operating and selling interests in vacation ownership properties, allowing members to access a portfolio of vacation resorts.
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Marriott International primarily serves individual customers and groups for its hospitality services. While it also engages in business-to-business relationships through its franchising and licensing model (where other companies are its franchisees/licensees), the ultimate consumers of its core hotel, residential, and timeshare offerings are individuals and groups.
The major categories of customers Marriott International serves are:
- Business & Corporate Travelers: Individuals traveling for work, attending meetings, conferences, or company-sponsored events. These customers often seek amenities such as business centers, meeting rooms, and convenient locations.
- Leisure & Vacation Travelers: Individuals, couples, and families traveling for personal enjoyment, holidays, sightseeing, or personal events like weddings and celebrations. This category often seeks hotels with recreational facilities, tourist attractions nearby, or specific ambiance.
- Group & Event Organizers/Attendees: Companies, associations, or individuals organizing or attending large-scale events such as conferences, conventions, weddings, or social gatherings. These bookings often involve block reservations of rooms, as well as the use of event spaces and catering services.
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```htmlAnthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer
Anthony Capuano was appointed CEO in February 2021, having joined Marriott in 1995. He has been instrumental in the company's growth, including the 2016 acquisition of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide. Prior to his CEO role, he served as Group President, Global Development, Design and Operations Services, leading strategic unit growth and overseeing global design and operating standards. Mr. Capuano earned a bachelor's degree from Cornell University in Hotel Administration. He also serves on the Board of Directors for McDonald's Corporation.
Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development
Leeny Oberg became CFO in January 2016 and was additionally designated Executive Vice President, Development in February 2023. She is set to retire on March 31, 2026. Prior to becoming Marriott's CFO, she served as CFO for The Ritz-Carlton Hotel Company. She held various financial leadership positions with Marriott, joining the company in 1999 as part of its Investor Relations group. Before Marriott, she held financial leadership roles at organizations such as Sodexo (formerly Sodexo Marriott Services), Sallie Mae, Goldman Sachs, and Chase Manhattan Bank. Ms. Oberg earned a Bachelor of Science from the University of Virginia and an MBA from Stanford University. She serves on the Board of Directors of Adobe Inc.
Satya Anand, Group President, U.S., Canada, and Caribbean & Latin America (Effective March 28, 2026)
Satya Anand is currently President for Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and will assume the role of Group President, U.S., Canada, and CALA on March 28, 2026. A 37-year Marriott veteran, Mr. Anand began his career in 1988 as a night auditor at the Vienna Marriott Hotel. He has held numerous leadership positions spanning operations, finance, and design, including cluster general manager for Renaissance Hotels in Vienna, Area Vice President for Western & Central Europe, Chief Financial Officer for Europe, and Chief Operations Officer for Luxury and Southern Europe and Global Design, EMEA.
Brian King, President, Caribbean and Latin America
Brian King oversees Marriott International’s Caribbean and Latin America operations, a role he assumed in January 2021. He will step down from this role at the end of March 2026 and retire from the company at the end of June 2026. Mr. King has a long tenure with Marriott, joining in 1993, and has held various leadership roles across brand management, digital, distribution, global sales, revenue management, and operations. He was involved in bringing Delta Hotels and Protea Hotels into Marriott's brand portfolio and led the global launch of MOXY Hotels in 2013. He also played a key role in integrating Starwood Hotels onto Marriott’s reservations, revenue management, and digital platforms.
Rajeev Menon, President, APAC (Excluding Greater China)
Rajeev Menon serves as the President for Marriott International Inc., for Asia Pacific excluding Greater China (APEC). He is a key member of the continent's senior leadership team, responsible for business performance, driving key initiatives, and ensuring the implementation of brand and discipline programs across more than 410 operating hotels and resorts under 21 unique brands. Prior to his promotion to President in October 2019, Mr. Menon served as the Chief Operating Officer (COO) for APEC from March 2015 through September 2019.
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Key Risks to Marriott International (MAR)
- Economic Uncertainty and Slowing Travel Demand: Marriott International faces significant downside risk from macroeconomic uncertainty and slowing travel demand, which directly impacts its revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth. Indicators such as decelerating RevPAR, subdued consumer demand driven by recession fears, and a notable decline in business and government-related travel in some segments pose a material threat to the company's financial performance. This economic softening affects the asset-light, fee-based model, leading to potential declines in fee revenue and compressed margins due to fixed corporate overhead.
- Labor Cost Inflation and Staffing Challenges: The hospitality industry, including Marriott, is grappling with persistent labor challenges. These include rising wage inflation, ongoing staffing shortages for various positions, and increasing benefits costs. These factors compress profit margins for hotel owners and may necessitate rate increases that could impact demand elasticity. For Marriott, these labor challenges risk service quality, potentially damaging brand reputation and loyalty, and can put pressure on hotel owners, who may face difficulties in maintaining profitability.
- Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks in International Markets: Marriott International's extensive international expansion exposes the company to diverse and rapidly changing regulatory and political risks, particularly in key growth markets like China. Government policies concerning foreign investment, currency controls, and business operations can shift unexpectedly. Furthermore, broader geopolitical tensions can disrupt operations, impair asset values, and create significant uncertainty for Marriott's global strategy.
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```htmlFor Marriott International (symbol: MAR), the addressable markets for its main products and services are identified as follows:
- Global Hotel Market: The global hotel market was valued at approximately USD 1,472.15 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Hotel Market: The U.S. hotels market size was estimated at USD 263.21 billion in 2024.
- Global Hotel Franchise Market: The global hotel franchise market was valued at USD 46.31 billion in 2024.
- Global Vacation Ownership (Timeshare) Market: The global vacation ownership (timeshare) market size was approximately USD 12.7 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Vacation Ownership (Timeshare) Market: The U.S. timeshare industry generated total revenues of approximately USD 13.7 billion in 2024, combining sales and rental income.
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Marriott International (MAR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Net Room Growth and Pipeline Expansion: Marriott is consistently expanding its global room count through organic growth and conversions. The company grew its net rooms by over 4.3 percent in 2025 and anticipates accelerating this growth to 4.5 percent to 5 percent in 2026. Marriott ended 2025 with a record development pipeline of approximately 610,000 rooms, an increase of 6 percent year-over-year. This continuous expansion directly increases the base from which Marriott collects its recurring fee revenues.
- International Market Strength and RevPAR Growth: Strong performance in international markets, particularly in regions like China, the Middle East, Asia Pacific (excluding China), and Europe, is a significant revenue driver. While U.S. and Canada RevPAR (revenue per available room) was relatively flat in Q4 2025, international RevPAR grew by 6.1 percent, offsetting domestic softness. Marriott expects worldwide RevPAR growth of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent for the full year 2026.
- Growth of the Marriott Bonvoy Loyalty Program and Co-branded Credit Card Fees: The Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program is a crucial ecosystem for the company, attracting and retaining customers. The program added 43 million new members in 2025, bringing the total to 271 million members worldwide. This expansive member base contributes to revenue through increased bookings and also generates substantial income from co-branded credit card fees, which increased by 35 percent and 8 percent in Q4 2025 due to renegotiated contracts and system growth.
- Expansion in Luxury and Midscale Segments, Including New Brand Offerings: Marriott is strategically expanding its portfolio across diverse segments. The luxury segment continues to show strong resilience and outperformance, with luxury RevPAR increasing over 6 percent in 2025. Simultaneously, the company is accelerating its presence in the midscale market, exemplified by the rapid expansion of the City Express by Marriott brand into new regions like the U.S. & Canada and various Caribbean and Latin American countries. Marriott also introduced new brands like "Series by Marriott™" in 2025 to cater to midscale and upscale lodging segments. This multi-segment approach captures a broader range of traveler demand.
- Conversions of Existing Hotels to Marriott Brands: Converting existing properties to Marriott's brands is a key component of the company's growth strategy. Conversions accounted for approximately one-third of organic room signings and openings in 2025, providing a quicker route to increasing room count and generating fee revenue compared to ground-up development.
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Share Repurchases
- Marriott repurchased 4.6 million shares for US$1.34 billion between October 1, 2025, and February 6, 2026.
- In 2025, the company repurchased 12.1 million shares for $3.3 billion.
- Marriott repurchased 15.4 million shares for $3.7 billion in 2024.
Outbound Investments
- Marriott International acquired the citizenM lifestyle brand, which is reflected in their total investment spending.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Marriott International increased from $183 million in 2021 to $954 million in 2025.
- The company anticipates capital expenditures and other investments to total approximately $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion for 2025, including capital and technology expenditures, loan advances, and contract acquisition costs.
- For fiscal year 2026, Marriott plans capital investments between $1 billion and $1.1 billion, with a focus on operational enhancement and portfolio expansion, including the multi-year transformation of its property management, reservations, and loyalty systems.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 07312020 | MAR | Marriott International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 38.8% | 74.1% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 137.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.6 |
| Rev LTM | 7,101 |
| Op Inc LTM | 500 |
| FCF LTM | 286 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 408 |
| CFO LTM | 522 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 604 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.6 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 20.3 |
| P/CFO | 27.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 23,713 | ||||
| Base management fees | 1,044 | 669 | 443 | 1,180 | |
| Contract investment amortization | -89 | -75 | -132 | -62 | |
| Cost reimbursement revenue | 15,417 | 10,442 | 8,452 | 15,599 | |
| Franchise fees | 2,505 | 1,790 | 1,153 | 2,006 | |
| Incentive management fees | 529 | 235 | 87 | 637 | |
| Owned, leased, and other revenue | 1,367 | 796 | 568 | 1,612 | |
| Total | 23,713 | 20,773 | 13,857 | 10,571 | 20,972 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $331.93 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 89.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/13/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $330.85 | $291.95 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.3% | 13.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.8% | 28.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.20 | 0.46 |
| Upside Capture | 85.77 | 103.15 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.6% | 62.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.20 | 0.91 | 1.03 | 0.76 | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| Up Beta | 3.94 | 1.77 | 1.79 | 0.99 | 1.12 | 1.01 |
| Down Beta | 1.04 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| Up Capture | 117% | 87% | 91% | 86% | 106% | 115% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 29 | 64 | 125 | 399 |
| Down Capture | 95% | 42% | 50% | 34% | 88% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 62 | 126 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | 40.8% | 29.6% | 1.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.1% | 23.7% | 0.31 | 71.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 66.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | -9.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 60.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 22.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | 18.6% | 28.8% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 65.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 64.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 47.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 24.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | 18.2% | 32.8% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 21.9% | 0.50 | 61.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 60.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | -3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 22.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 48.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/10/2026 | 8.5% | 8.7% | -1.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 3.2% | 10.1% | 12.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.2% | -0.4% | 2.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.9% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | -5.4% | -5.3% | -19.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | -1.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | -4.8% | -9.9% | -4.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | -1.0% | -0.1% | -2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 6.2% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -2.3% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 8.5% | 19.9% | 31.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -9.9% | -19.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 RevPAR Growth | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0 | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 1.5% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Gross Fee Revenues | 1.36 Bil | 1.37 Bil | 1.38 Bil | -1.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.39 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.30 Bil | 1.31 Bil | 1.32 Bil | -5.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.39 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS | 2.5 | 2.52 | 2.55 | -2.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.58 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 RevPAR Growth | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Net Rooms Growth | 4.5% | 4.75% | 5.0% | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Gross Fee Revenues | 5.89 Bil | 5.92 Bil | 5.96 Bil | 9.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.41 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 5.84 Bil | 5.88 Bil | 5.93 Bil | 9.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.37 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 14.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 10 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Return to Shareholders | 4.30 Bil | 7.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Comparable systemwide constant $ RevPAR growth | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 200.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 0.5% for Q3 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 1.38 Bil | 1.39 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 5.6% | Higher New | Actual: 1.32 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.37 Bil | 1.39 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 6.4% | Higher New | Actual: 1.30 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 EPS | 2.54 | 2.58 | 2.62 | 9.8% | Higher New | Actual: 2.35 for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Comparable systemwide constant $ RevPAR growth | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Revenue | 5.39 Bil | 5.41 Bil | 5.42 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 5.39 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 5.35 Bil | 5.37 Bil | 5.38 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 5.35 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS | 9.98 | 10 | 10.1 | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 9.96 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Dividends | 4.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee, Felitia | Controller and CAO | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 305.98 | 1,617 | 494,769 | 1,497,107 | Form |
| 2 | Lee, Felitia | Controller and CAO | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 301.58 | 873 | 263,280 | 1,963,241 | Form |
| 3 | Harrison, Deborah Marriott | The Harrison Generation Trust | Sell | 11122025 | 291.63 | 70,000 | 20,414,100 | 51,096,492 | Form | |
| 4 | Reiss, Rena Hozore | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11112025 | 287.11 | 5,483 | 1,574,224 | 11,300,652 | Form |
| 5 | Roe, Peggy | EVP & Chf. Customer Officer | Direct | Sell | 11112025 | 292.12 | 2,000 | 584,240 | 5,102,168 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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