Tearsheet

Macy's (M)


Market Price (12/12/2025): $24.0 | Market Cap: $6.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

Macy's (M)


Market Price (12/12/2025): $24.0
Market Cap: $6.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 107%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -54%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.3%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -54%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 107%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

M Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 12, 2025, the available historical data for Macy's (M) does not indicate an 83.4% stock movement. Based on the provided information, Macy's stock moved from approximately $17.50 on August 29, 2025, to $22.13 on December 8, 2025, representing an approximate increase of 26.46%. Here are key points from the available information that contributed to the stock movement during this period:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Macy's reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.41 per share, significantly exceeding the analyst consensus of $0.18. The company's revenues of $4.81 billion also surpassed the consensus estimate of $4.76 billion. This positive earnings surprise led to a notable 10% surge in shares on September 3, 2025.

2. Increased Full-Year Guidance: Following its strong Q3 2025 results, Macy's raised its full-year earnings guidance to a range of $1.70 to $2.05 per share, up from a previous range of $1.60 to $2.00. Net sales guidance was also increased to $21.15 billion to $21.45 billion, reflecting an increase from the earlier projection of $21 billion to $21.4 billion. This upward revision in outlook signaled management's confidence and contributed to investor optimism.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
M Return-31%136%-19%2%-12%43%68%
Peers Return1%70%-6%18%11%38%193%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%114%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
M Win Rate58%83%25%50%42%58% 
Peers Win Rate57%53%45%55%55%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
M Max Drawdown-73%-0%-41%-47%-28%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-56%-10%-39%-21%-17%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DDS, KSS, TJX, ROST, BURL. See M Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/11/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven253.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-75.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven308.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven345 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-65.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven192.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-87.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven718.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1631 days1480 days

Compare to TJX, TGT, OLLI, KSS, BGO


In The Past

Macy's's stock fell -71.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Macy's (M)

Better Bets than Macy's (M)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to M. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
14.5%14.5%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.6%-0.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.9%12.9%-1.6%
M_5312023_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG05312023MMacy'sDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
18.0%46.8%-20.3%
M_8312019_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG08312019MMacy'sDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.2%-48.7%-67.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
14.5%14.5%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.6%-0.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.9%12.9%-1.6%
M_5312023_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG05312023MMacy'sDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
18.0%46.8%-20.3%
M_8312019_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG08312019MMacy'sDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.2%-48.7%-67.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Macy's

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MDDSKSSTJXROSTBURLMedian
NameMacy's Dillard'sKohl's TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt. 
Mkt Price24.00698.2323.90155.58183.13269.38169.36
Mkt Cap4.89.62.7160.749.017.013.3
Rev LTM22,7126,62615,75158,97922,02711,19718,889
Op Inc LTM9087225006,6712,624786847
FCF LTM7977818194,4181,963-384808
FCF 3Y Avg4157195704,4761,88576644
CFO LTM1,5558711,2266,4212,7888371,390
CFO 3Y Avg1,3198311,0516,3052,6648711,185

Growth & Margins

MDDSKSSTJXROSTBURLMedian
NameMacy's Dillard'sKohl's TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt. 
Rev Chg LTM-2.8%-1.1%-6.1%4.5%3.7%6.8%1.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.3%-1.8%-5.4%6.2%6.0%9.4%2.1%
Rev Chg Q0.2%2.7%-3.6%7.5%10.4%7.1%4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.0%0.6%-0.8%1.8%2.5%1.6%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM4.0%10.9%3.2%11.3%11.9%7.0%9.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.4%12.2%2.5%10.9%11.7%6.3%8.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%0.0%-0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM6.8%13.1%7.8%10.9%12.7%7.5%9.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.7%12.3%6.3%11.3%12.8%8.5%9.9%
FCF/Rev LTM3.5%11.8%5.2%7.5%8.9%-3.4%6.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.8%10.7%3.5%8.0%9.0%1.0%5.7%

Valuation

MDDSKSSTJXROSTBURLMedian
NameMacy's Dillard'sKohl's TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt. 
Mkt Cap4.89.62.7160.749.017.013.3
P/S0.21.40.22.72.21.51.5
P/EBIT--3.2--19.611.4
P/E10.016.513.831.423.530.320.0
P/CFO3.111.02.225.017.620.314.3
Total Yield14.1%10.4%10.9%4.3%5.3%3.3%7.8%
Dividend Yield4.1%4.3%3.7%1.1%1.1%0.0%2.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--28.6%--1.2%14.9%
D/E--4.0--0.42.2
Net D/E--3.9--0.32.1

Returns

MDDSKSSTJXROSTBURLMedian
NameMacy's Dillard'sKohl's TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt. 
1M Rtn17.4%14.6%33.6%6.4%12.8%-5.9%13.7%
3M Rtn37.5%19.2%48.9%10.8%21.5%-3.5%20.3%
6M Rtn107.0%73.7%177.6%25.8%37.9%13.6%55.8%
12M Rtn52.2%62.2%68.6%24.2%20.4%-8.8%38.2%
3Y Rtn23.5%147.7%10.3%105.9%62.6%37.8%50.2%
1M Excs Rtn16.6%13.8%32.8%5.7%12.0%-6.7%12.9%
3M Excs Rtn36.8%16.7%52.2%7.1%19.3%-3.9%18.0%
6M Excs Rtn92.9%59.5%163.5%11.6%23.7%-0.5%41.6%
12M Excs Rtn37.0%55.4%54.7%11.1%4.8%-21.5%24.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-53.9%55.2%-69.5%29.3%-12.7%-40.2%-26.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment23,866    
Credit card revenues, net 863 751771
Home/Other 4,1994,6543,7454,067
Macy's Media Network revenue, net 144   
Men's and Kids 5,2975,2473,4865,628
Women's Accessories, Shoes, Cosmetics and Fragrances 9,5979,3857,2069,454
Women's Apparel 5,3495,1742,9095,411
Total23,86625,44924,46018,09725,331


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,909,644
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.7%
Average Daily Volume5,998,795
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.15
Basic Shares Quantity267,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/3/2025-1.1%  
9/3/202520.7%29.0%34.6%
5/28/2025-0.3%-4.6%-6.2%
3/6/2025-0.7%4.6%-13.1%
11/25/2024-2.2%3.9%4.3%
8/21/2024-12.9%-13.4%-12.6%
5/21/20245.1%6.7%-3.1%
11/16/20235.7%17.7%57.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151611
# Negative8712
Median Positive5.9%12.7%16.0%
Median Negative-1.7%-5.5%-13.1%
Max Positive21.2%34.7%57.6%
Max Negative-14.1%-17.4%-29.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251210202510-Q 11/1/2025
7312025910202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025605202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025321202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241212202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024904202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024530202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024322202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231128202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023825202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023606202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023324202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221130202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022826202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022607202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022325202210-K 1/29/2022