Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
Market Price (11/22/2025): $168.13 | Market Cap: $20.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
Market Price (11/22/2025): $168.13Market Cap: $20.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 5.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
LULU Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) experienced a significant stock movement from July 31, 2025, to today, November 22, 2025, marked by a decline of approximately 16.1%. This downturn was primarily driven by several key factors.
**1. Lowered Q3 2025 Revenue and EPS Forecasts.**
On September 4, 2025, Lululemon announced its second-quarter earnings, which, while exceeding analyst EPS expectations for Q2, included a disappointing outlook for the third quarter. The company's Q3 revenue forecast of $2.47–$2.50 billion fell short of the consensus estimate of $2.56 billion, and its Q3 EPS guidance of $2.18–$2.23 also missed analyst expectations of $2.90. This lowered guidance led to an immediate drop in share price.
**2. Weak U.S. Sales and Soft Consumer Demand.**
A significant contributing factor to the stock's decline was the reported weakness in Lululemon's U.S. business. The company noted a 4% decline in comparable sales in the Americas and subdued store traffic due to cautious consumer spending, particularly in its core U.S. market, which accounts for approximately 70% of its total revenue.
**3. Impact of Tariffs and Removal of De Minimis Exemption.**
Lululemon's profitability was notably impacted by higher tariff rates and the removal of the de minimis exemption, which previously allowed goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free. The company estimated an approximate $240 million reduction in gross profit for 2025 due to these factors, which also compressed gross margins by 300 basis points.
**4. Product Execution Issues and Lack of Newness.**
Management acknowledged "disappointing... aspects of our product execution" and cited "too predictable" and "stale" product cycles in core lounge and social categories. This lack of newness was identified as a reason for reduced customer enthusiasm and slower U.S. sales.
**5. Departure of Key Leadership.**
On November 21, 2025, Lululemon announced that Celeste Burgoyne, President of the Americas and Global Guest Innovation, would be departing the company at the end of December 2025. Burgoyne, a 20-year veteran, was considered a "key architect" of the brand's success, and her exit during a period of turbulence in North America was viewed negatively by analysts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LULU Return | 50% | 12% | -18% | 60% | -25% | -57% | -29% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 13% | -27% | -4% | -13% | -24% | -44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LULU Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 83% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 36% | 36% | 22% | 36% | 58% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LULU Max Drawdown | -40% | -18% | -34% | -9% | -54% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -4% | -39% | -19% | -20% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NKE, UA, LB, AGIE, JPO. See LULU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LULU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1191.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 640 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NKE, UA, LB, AGIE, JPO
In The Past
Lululemon Athletica's stock fell -46.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -46.1% loss requires a 85.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LULU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.7% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 06302025 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.2% | -29.2% | -32.7% |
| 11302024 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.2% | -47.6% | -50.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.7% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 06302025 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.2% | -29.2% | -32.7% |
| 11302024 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.2% | -47.6% | -50.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lululemon Athletica
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,977 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,285 |
| FCF LTM | 627 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,279 |
| CFO LTM | 1,000 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,964 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 22.8 |
| P/E | 21.6 |
| P/CFO | 17.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -30.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -50.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -44.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -117.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/4/2025 | -18.6% | -19.6% | -14.8% |
| 6/5/2025 | -19.8% | -25.3% | -28.7% |
| 3/27/2025 | -14.2% | -25.1% | -21.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | 15.9% | 12.9% | 14.1% |
| 8/29/2024 | 0.2% | -2.0% | 4.8% |
| 6/5/2024 | 4.8% | 0.5% | -4.6% |
| 3/21/2024 | -15.8% | -18.4% | -24.4% |
| 12/7/2023 | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 10.0% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -8.7% | -14.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.9% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -25.3% | -28.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9042025 | 10-Q 8/3/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/4/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3272025 | 10-K 2/2/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3212024 | 10-K 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3282023 | 10-K 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3292022 | 10-K 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12092021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | NEUBURGER NICOLE | Chief Brand Officer | 10022025 | Sell | 178.00 | 615 | 109,470 | 1,600,754 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |