Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
Market Price (11/12/2025): $170.05 | Market Cap: $20.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
Market Price (11/12/2025): $170.05Market Cap: $20.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 5.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
LULU Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -15.3% movement in Lululemon Athletica (LULU) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 12, 2025:
1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Performance, particularly in the U.S. market.
Lululemon Athletica announced its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on September 4, 2025, revealing mixed performance that disappointed investors. While diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.10 surpassed analyst expectations, net revenue of $2.5 billion slightly missed consensus estimates. A significant factor contributing to investor concern was the 4% decline in comparable sales in the Americas, indicating weakness in the company's core U.S. business.
2. Revised and Lowered Full-Year and Q3 2025 Financial Guidance.
Following the Q2 results, Lululemon significantly lowered its financial outlook for both the third quarter and the full fiscal year 2025. The company forecasted third-quarter net revenue to be between $2.47 billion and $2.50 billion, and diluted EPS between $2.18 and $2.23, both falling below analyst expectations. For the full year, net revenue guidance was reduced to a range of $10.85 billion to $11.00 billion, with diluted EPS expected between $12.77 and $12.97, reflecting a more cautious outlook for growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LULU Return | 50% | 12% | -18% | 60% | -25% | -56% | -27% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 8% | -17% | -16% | -14% | -1% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LULU Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 83% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 31% | 27% | 25% | 47% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LULU Max Drawdown | -40% | -18% | -34% | -9% | -54% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -2% | -34% | -25% | -25% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NKE, UA, LB, JL, LANV. See LULU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/11/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LULU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1191.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 640 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NKE, UA, LB, JL, LANV
In The Past
Lululemon Athletica's stock fell -46.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -46.1% loss requires a 85.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LULU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.0% | -2.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.9% | -2.9% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.0% | 17.0% | -6.2% |
| 06302025 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -28.3% | -28.3% | -32.7% |
| 11302024 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.2% | -46.9% | -50.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.0% | -2.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.9% | -2.9% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.0% | 17.0% | -6.2% |
| 06302025 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -28.3% | -28.3% | -32.7% |
| 11302024 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.2% | -46.9% | -50.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lululemon Athletica
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 33.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.2 |
| Rev LTM | 7,977 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,285 |
| FCF LTM | 627 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,279 |
| CFO LTM | 1,000 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,964 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.2 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 27.4 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 22.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -49.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -124.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/4/2025 | -18.6% | -19.6% | -14.8% |
| 6/5/2025 | -19.8% | -25.3% | -28.7% |
| 3/27/2025 | -14.2% | -25.1% | -21.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | 15.9% | 12.9% | 14.1% |
| 8/29/2024 | 0.2% | -2.0% | 4.8% |
| 6/5/2024 | 4.8% | 0.5% | -4.6% |
| 3/21/2024 | -15.8% | -18.4% | -24.4% |
| 12/7/2023 | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 10.0% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -8.7% | -14.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.9% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -25.3% | -28.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9042025 | 10-Q 8/3/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/4/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3272025 | 10-K 2/2/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3212024 | 10-K 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3282023 | 10-K 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3292022 | 10-K 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12092021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | NEUBURGER NICOLE | Chief Brand Officer | 10022025 | Sell | 178.00 | 615 | 109,470 | 1,600,754 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
