Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $465.85 | Market Cap: $108.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $465.85Market Cap: $108.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.6 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
LMT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock moved by 11.4% for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to today:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Upgraded Outlook: Lockheed Martin reported robust financial performance for Q3 2025, with sales increasing by 9% year-over-year to $18.6 billion and net earnings reaching $1.6 billion, or $6.95 per share. The company generated significant cash from operations of $3.7 billion and free cash flow of $3.3 billion. Furthermore, Lockheed Martin increased its share repurchase authority by an additional $2 billion, bringing the total authorization to $9.1 billion, and raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to $3.45 per share. Management also updated its 2025 outlook, raising forecasts for revenue and profit, indicating confidence in continued strong demand for its products and systems.
2. Record-Breaking PAC-3 MSE Missile Contract: The U.S. Army awarded Lockheed Martin a $9.8 billion contract on September 3, 2025, for the production of 1,970 Patriot Advanced Capability – 3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) interceptors and associated hardware. This contract represents the largest in the history of Lockheed Martin’s Missiles and Fire Control unit, demonstrating significant demand and trust in its advanced missile defense systems.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LMT Return | -6% | 3% | 40% | -4% | 10% | -4% | 37% |
| Peers Return | -13% | 12% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 24% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LMT Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 45% | 43% | 35% | 45% | 61% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LMT Max Drawdown | -28% | -9% | -0% | -17% | -8% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -7% | -11% | -16% | -12% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, BA, NOC, LHX, DFSC. See LMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 178 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1598 days | 1480 days |
Compare to RTX, BA, NOC, LHX, DFSC
In The Past
Lockheed Martin's stock fell -20.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2023. A -20.8% loss requires a 26.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lockheed Martin
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 241.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 108.0 |
| Rev LTM | 57,138 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,232 |
| FCF LTM | 1,999 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,983 |
| CFO LTM | 2,972 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,000 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 108.0 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 25.7 |
| P/CFO | 21.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.4% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotary and Mission Systems | 17,521 | 17,988 | 17,664 | 18,035 | 18,751 |
| Aeronautics | 13,167 | 12,055 | 10,756 | 9,903 | 9,109 |
| Corporate assets | 9,505 | 10,698 | 11,011 | 11,355 | 8,794 |
| Space | 6,560 | 6,351 | 6,199 | 6,451 | 5,844 |
| Missiles and Fire Control | 5,703 | 5,788 | 5,243 | 4,966 | 5,030 |
| Total | 52,456 | 52,880 | 50,873 | 50,710 | 47,528 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2025 | -3.2% | -3.8% | |
| 7/22/2025 | -10.8% | -8.5% | -4.2% |
| 4/22/2025 | 0.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | -9.2% | -9.6% | -12.3% |
| 10/22/2024 | -6.1% | -9.7% | -13.2% |
| 7/23/2024 | 5.6% | 11.2% | 17.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | -0.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| 1/23/2024 | -4.2% | -6.7% | -6.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -5.0% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.7% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.8% | -12.1% | -13.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10212025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10172023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7192023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4182023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10182022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7192022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4202022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | St John Frank A | Chief Operating Officer | 10272025 | Sell | 492.42 | 69 | 33,977 | 3,803,217 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
