Lemonade (LMND)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $66.66 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Lemonade (LMND)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $66.66Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 124%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 119% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 124%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 119% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
LMND Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Lemonade (LMND) stock's approximate 85.7% movement from July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025:
1. Lemonade reported stronger-than-expected financial results for Q3 2025, significantly surpassing analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share. The company's revenue reached $194.5 million, marking a 42.4% increase year-over-year and beating expectations, while its earnings per share of -$0.51 was considerably better than the consensus estimate of -$0.72.
2. The company demonstrated substantial progress towards profitability, with improved loss and expense ratios. Lemonade's Adjusted EBITDA loss improved by 48% year-over-year to ($26) million, and net loss improved by 45% to ($38) million in Q3 2025. Management also reiterated its expectation of generating positive adjusted free cash flow for the full year 2025 and positive adjusted EBITDA by Q4 2026.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LMND Return | - | -66% | -68% | 18% | 127% | 91% | -43% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 20% | 32% | 8% | 40% | 6% | 168% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LMND Win Rate | 80% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 55% | 60% | 62% | 70% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LMND Max Drawdown | - | -68% | -69% | -23% | -11% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -5% | -3% | -16% | -0% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PGR, MET, UNM, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LMND | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1633.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 148 days |
Compare to PGR, MET, UNM, CB, TRV
In The Past
Lemonade's stock fell -94.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/11/2021. A -94.2% loss requires a 1633.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LMND. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.4% | 0.4% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.4% | -7.4% | -7.4% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.4% | 0.4% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.4% | -7.4% | -7.4% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lemonade
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 151.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 58.6 |
| Rev LTM | 53,654 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 11,653 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,516 |
| CFO LTM | 11,653 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,658 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 58.6 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 9.0 |
| P/E | 12.4 |
| P/CFO | 7.1 |
| Total Yield | 9.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 76.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.6% | ||
| 8/5/2025 | 6.6% | 13.9% | 5.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.0% | 6.6% | 19.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -1.6% | 16.6% | 7.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | 26.8% | 56.2% | 176.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | -20.3% | -31.4% | -21.9% |
| 2/27/2024 | -27.7% | -24.8% | -25.0% |
| 11/1/2023 | 47.0% | 45.5% | 66.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 15.3% | 28.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -12.2% | -19.7% |
| Max Positive | 47.0% | 56.2% | 176.3% |
| Max Negative | -27.7% | -31.4% | -37.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |