Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $1014.16 | Market Cap: $910.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $1014.16Market Cap: $910.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LLY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Eli Lilly (LLY) stock movement:
**1. Strong Financial Performance and Raised Outlook**
Eli Lilly reported robust second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, with revenue growing 38% year-over-year to $15.6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share increasing by 61%. Despite an initial stock drop in premarket trading on the earnings announcement, the company raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, signaling an optimistic outlook for future profitability.
**2. Dominance and Expansion in the Weight-Loss and Diabetes Market**
The company cemented its position as a "weight-loss powerhouse" due to strong performances from key drugs like Zepbound and Mounjaro. Shares surged as health authorities considered adding weight-loss medications, including Eli Lilly's Zepbound, to Medicaid and Medicare coverage. Further expanding its market reach, Mounjaro is set to join China's state health insurance scheme starting January 1, 2026, making it more accessible to a vast patient population.
**3. Positive Clinical Trial Results for Key Therapeutics**
Eli Lilly announced positive trial results for its drug orforglipron, which showed significant weight loss and improved heart risk factors. Additionally, Mounjaro demonstrated superior outcomes over Trulicity in a cardiovascular event trial, further strengthening its profile.
**4. Success with New Drug Developments**
On December 7, 2025, Eli Lilly announced positive Phase 3 BRUIN CLL-314 results for Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib), demonstrating it met the primary endpoint of non-inferiority for overall response rate versus Imbruvica in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL).
**5. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets**
During this period, several research analysts issued optimistic assessments and price target increases for Eli Lilly. For instance, Scotiabank initiated coverage with a "sector outperform" rating and a $1,165.00 target price in November 2025, while Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an Outperform rating with a $1,300 price target, reflecting strong confidence in the company's long-term growth trajectory and pipeline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LLY Return | 31% | 66% | 34% | 61% | 33% | 32% | 730% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 23% | 18% | -7% | -0% | 24% | 75% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LLY Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 58% | 43% | 45% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LLY Max Drawdown | -9% | -3% | -15% | -15% | 0% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -7% | -8% | -21% | -7% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JNJ, MRK, PFE, ABBV, AMGN. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1873 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, LHI
In The Past
Eli Lilly's stock fell -18.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/17/2021. A -18.7% loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Eli Lilly Earnings Notes | |||
| High Margins, 3.5% Discount: Buy Eli Lilly Stock Now | Actionable | ||
| Eli Lilly Stock Now 3.5% Cheaper, Time To Buy | Actionable | ||
| Eli Lilly Stock Now 3.5% Cheaper, Time To Buy | Actionable | ||
| Why Eli Lilly Stock Jumped 50%? | |||
| How Does Eli Lilly Stock Compare With Peers? | |||
| Things To Be Wary Of When Buying Eli Lilly Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Eli Lilly Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Eli Lilly Stock with 11% Return (vs. 34% YTD) [11/16/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Eli Lilly Stock | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| High Margins, 3.5% Discount: Buy Eli Lilly Stock Now | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| High Margins, 3.5% Discount: Buy Eli Lilly Stock Now | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| High Margins, 3.5% Discount: Buy Eli Lilly Stock Now | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| What Is Happening With Eli Lilly Stock? | November 22nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.8% | 9.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -8.8% | -8.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.5% | 2.5% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.5% | 12.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.1% | 10.1% | -5.1% |
| 05312025 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 46.3% | 37.5% | -15.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.8% | 9.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -8.8% | -8.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.5% | 2.5% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.5% | 12.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.1% | 10.1% | -5.1% |
| 05312025 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 46.3% | 37.5% | -15.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Eli Lilly
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 214.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 324.4 |
| Rev LTM | 61,215 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,904 |
| FCF LTM | 12,294 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,376 |
| CFO LTM | 15,096 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,817 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 324.4 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 13.7 |
| P/E | 19.7 |
| P/CFO | 15.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -42.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trulicity | 7,132 | 7,440 | 6,472 | 5,068 | 4,128 |
| Mounjaro | 5,163 | 482 | |||
| Verzenio | 3,863 | 2,484 | 1,350 | 913 | 580 |
| Taltz | 2,760 | 2,482 | 2,213 | 1,788 | 1,366 |
| Jardiance | 2,745 | 2,066 | 1,491 | 1,154 | 944 |
| Zyprexa | 1,695 | 337 | 430 | 406 | 419 |
| Humalog | 1,663 | 2,061 | 2,453 | 2,626 | 2,821 |
| Other | 1,122 | 296 | |||
| Cyramza | 975 | 971 | 1,033 | 1,033 | 925 |
| Olumiant | 923 | 830 | 1,115 | 639 | 427 |
| Humulin | 852 | 1,019 | 1,223 | 1,260 | 1,290 |
| Other Oncology | 830 | 424 | |||
| Basaglar | 728 | 760 | 892 | 1,124 | 1,113 |
| Emgality | 678 | 651 | 577 | 363 | 162 |
| Baqsimi | 678 | 139 | |||
| Erbitux | 596 | 566 | 548 | 536 | 543 |
| Other cardiometabolic health | 530 | 497 | |||
| Other Neuroscience | 506 | 558 | |||
| Tyvyt | 393 | 293 | 418 | 309 | |
| Zepbound | 176 | 0 | |||
| Other Immunology | 115 | 32 | |||
| COVID-19 Antibodies | 0 | 2,024 | 2,239 | 871 | |
| Alimta | 928 | 2,061 | 2,330 | 2,116 | |
| Cialis | 587 | 718 | 607 | 890 | |
| Forteo | 613 | 802 | 1,046 | 1,405 | |
| Cymbalta | 582 | 768 | 725 | ||
| Other products | 1,700 | 1,340 | 1,874 | ||
| Trajenta | 358 | 591 | |||
| Total | 34,124 | 28,541 | 28,318 | 24,540 | 22,320 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | 13.8% | 30.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| 1/14/2025 | -6.6% | -6.9% | 9.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -10.8% | -12.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 10.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | -0.2% | 4.4% | 10.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 6.8% | 9.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -4.6% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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