Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $1163.6 | Market Cap: $1.0 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $1163.6Market Cap: $1.0 TrilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 29x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 51x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x Key risksLLY key risks include [1] the eventual patent expiration of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 29x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 51x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x |
| Key risksLLY key risks include [1] the eventual patent expiration of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/1/2026
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Eli Lilly reported a significant earnings beat for fiscal Q1 2026 and subsequently raised its full-year guidance. The company announced fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $8.55, considerably surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $6.97. Quarterly revenue rose 55.5% year-over-year to $19.80 billion, exceeding the $17.82 billion consensus. Following this strong performance, Eli Lilly increased its full-year 2026 sales outlook to a range of $82 billion to $85 billion, up $2 billion from previous guidance.
2. Robust sales growth of key weight loss and diabetes medications, Mounjaro and Zepbound, significantly contributed to revenue. In fiscal Q1 2026, worldwide Mounjaro revenue increased 125% to $8.7 billion, while U.S. Zepbound revenue grew 79% to $4.1 billion. The combined sales of these two medicines reached $19.8 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, marking a 56% year-over-year increase. Eli Lilly now commands 60.1% of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market.
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Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Eli Lilly reported a significant earnings beat for fiscal Q1 2026 and subsequently raised its full-year guidance. The company announced fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $8.55, considerably surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $6.97. Quarterly revenue rose 55.5% year-over-year to $19.80 billion, exceeding the $17.82 billion consensus. Following this strong performance, Eli Lilly increased its full-year 2026 sales outlook to a range of $82 billion to $85 billion, up $2 billion from previous guidance.
2. Robust sales growth of key weight loss and diabetes medications, Mounjaro and Zepbound, significantly contributed to revenue. In fiscal Q1 2026, worldwide Mounjaro revenue increased 125% to $8.7 billion, while U.S. Zepbound revenue grew 79% to $4.1 billion. The combined sales of these two medicines reached $19.8 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, marking a 56% year-over-year increase. Eli Lilly now commands 60.1% of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market.
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Updated on 7/1/2026
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Eli Lilly reported a significant earnings beat for fiscal Q1 2026 and subsequently raised its full-year guidance. The company announced fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $8.55, considerably surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $6.97. Quarterly revenue rose 55.5% year-over-year to $19.80 billion, exceeding the $17.82 billion consensus. Following this strong performance, Eli Lilly increased its full-year 2026 sales outlook to a range of $82 billion to $85 billion, up $2 billion from previous guidance.
2. Robust sales growth of key weight loss and diabetes medications, Mounjaro and Zepbound, significantly contributed to revenue. In fiscal Q1 2026, worldwide Mounjaro revenue increased 125% to $8.7 billion, while U.S. Zepbound revenue grew 79% to $4.1 billion. The combined sales of these two medicines reached $19.8 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, marking a 56% year-over-year increase. Eli Lilly now commands 60.1% of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market.
3. The FDA approval and strong initial launch of the oral obesity medicine, Foundayo (orforglipron), fueled investor optimism. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Eli Lilly's oral obesity drug, Foundayo (orforglipron), on April 1, 2026. Early indications show strong sales, with over 20,000 patients having started on the drug in its first few weeks, and more than 1,000 new patients initiating treatment daily. This launch is anticipated to significantly expand the market for obesity treatments.
4. Positive analyst sentiment and increased price targets supported the upward stock movement. Following the company's strong performance and pipeline developments, multiple Wall Street analysts reiterated "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings and raised their price targets for Eli Lilly stock. For example, RBC Capital Markets maintained an Outperform rating with a $1,250 price target, while Barclays raised its price target to $1,400 from $1,350. The average analyst price target for LLY stands around $1,294.06.
Show less
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Eli Lilly reported a significant earnings beat for fiscal Q1 2026 and subsequently raised its full-year guidance. The company announced fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $8.55, considerably surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $6.97. Quarterly revenue rose 55.5% year-over-year to $19.80 billion, exceeding the $17.82 billion consensus. Following this strong performance, Eli Lilly increased its full-year 2026 sales outlook to a range of $82 billion to $85 billion, up $2 billion from previous guidance.
2. Robust sales growth of key weight loss and diabetes medications, Mounjaro and Zepbound, significantly contributed to revenue. In fiscal Q1 2026, worldwide Mounjaro revenue increased 125% to $8.7 billion, while U.S. Zepbound revenue grew 79% to $4.1 billion. The combined sales of these two medicines reached $19.8 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, marking a 56% year-over-year increase. Eli Lilly now commands 60.1% of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market.
3. The FDA approval and strong initial launch of the oral obesity medicine, Foundayo (orforglipron), fueled investor optimism. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Eli Lilly's oral obesity drug, Foundayo (orforglipron), on April 1, 2026. Early indications show strong sales, with over 20,000 patients having started on the drug in its first few weeks, and more than 1,000 new patients initiating treatment daily. This launch is anticipated to significantly expand the market for obesity treatments.
4. Positive analyst sentiment and increased price targets supported the upward stock movement. Following the company's strong performance and pipeline developments, multiple Wall Street analysts reiterated "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings and raised their price targets for Eli Lilly stock. For example, RBC Capital Markets maintained an Outperform rating with a $1,250 price target, while Barclays raised its price target to $1,400 from $1,350. The average analyst price target for LLY stands around $1,294.06.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.7% change in LLY stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 918.19 | 1163.01 | 26.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 65,180 | 72,250 | 10.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.7% | 35.0% | 10.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.9 | 41.2 | 3.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 896 | 894 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 26.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 7.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.7% | 75.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.6% change in LLY stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1071.05 | 1163.01 | 8.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,421 | 72,250 | 21.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.0% | 35.0% | 12.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.2 | 41.2 | -21.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 897 | 894 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 8.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 14.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.4% | 72.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.2% change in LLY stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 774.05 | 1163.01 | 50.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,004 | 72,250 | 47.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.7% | 35.0% | 54.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 62.6 | 41.2 | -34.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 899 | 894 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 50.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 14.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 19.8% | 68.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 153.3% change in LLY stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 160.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 459.09 | 1163.01 | 153.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,691 | 72,250 | 160.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 35.0% | 70.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 72.7 | 41.2 | -43.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 901 | 894 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 153.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 153.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 27.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 25.8% | 60.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LLY Return | 66% | 34% | 61% | 33% | 40% | 10% | 636% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -7% | -0% | 24% | 15% | 92% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LLY Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 43% | 45% | 58% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LLY Max Drawdown | -19% | -15% | -15% | -24% | -33% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -17% | -24% | -20% | -20% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JNJ, MRK, PFE, ABBV, AMGN. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Eli Lilly's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1216 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Eli Lilly's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical firm primarily focused on the discovery, development, and marketing of human medicines. Established in 1876, the company operates worldwide, committing its resources to addressing significant health challenges and bringing innovative therapeutic solutions to patients across various disease areas.
The company's extensive product portfolio covers several major therapeutic categories. A cornerstone of its business is diabetes care, offering a wide range of insulins like Humalog and Humulin, alongside advanced treatments for type 2 diabetes such as Jardiance and Trulicity. Eli Lilly also boasts a robust oncology pipeline with medications like Verzenio for breast cancer, Cyramza for various solid tumors, and Retevmo for specific thyroid and lung cancers. Additionally, the company provides treatments for autoimmune diseases (e.g., Olumiant, Taltz), neurological and mental health disorders (e.g., Cymbalta, Zyprexa, Emgality), and other conditions including osteoporosis and erectile dysfunction.
Eli Lilly's primary market consists of healthcare providers and, ultimately, patients around the globe who are battling a diverse array of serious and chronic conditions. By specializing in high-impact areas like diabetes, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, the company aims to serve a broad patient population, providing essential medicines that improve health outcomes and quality of life across different demographics and regions worldwide.
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Eli Lilly is like **Pfizer** for a wide range of human diseases, with a strong focus on diabetes, cancer, and autoimmune conditions.
Think of it as a **Merck** that's a leading developer of drugs for diabetes, oncology, and neuroscience.
It's the **Johnson & Johnson** of pure prescription drugs, with a broad portfolio from insulins to advanced cancer treatments.
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- Insulin Products (e.g., Basaglar, Humalog, Humulin): A comprehensive portfolio of insulin therapies used for diabetes management.
- Jardiance: A medication for type 2 diabetes, also recognized for its cardiovascular and renal benefits.
- Trulicity: An injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist widely used for type 2 diabetes.
- Alimta: A chemotherapy agent primarily for certain lung cancers and malignant pleural mesothelioma.
- Cyramza: A targeted therapy for various advanced solid tumors, including gastric, lung, and colorectal cancers.
- Verzenio: A CDK4/6 inhibitor for the treatment of HR+, HER2- metastatic and early breast cancer.
- Olumiant: An oral JAK inhibitor prescribed for rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory conditions.
- Taltz: An IL-17A inhibitor used for a range of psoriatic and spondyloarthritic conditions.
- Cymbalta: A medication used for depressive disorder, anxiety, and various chronic pain conditions.
- Emgality: A preventive treatment specifically for migraine and episodic cluster headache.
- Zyprexa: An antipsychotic medication for the treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder.
- Cialis: A widely recognized medication for treating erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia.
- Forteo: A bone-forming agent prescribed for severe osteoporosis to reduce fracture risk.
- Retevmo: A targeted therapy for specific types of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and thyroid cancers.
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Major Customers of Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly and Company primarily sells its pharmaceutical products to other companies within the healthcare supply chain rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers are large pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors, which then supply pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers. The major customer companies are:- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
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- Incyte Corporation (INCY)
- Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
- AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL)
- Junshi Biosciences (1877.HK)
- Regor Therapeutics Group
- Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.
- Kumquat Biosciences Inc.
- Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.
- Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. (FHTX)
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David A. Ricks, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
David A. Ricks joined Eli Lilly and Company in 1996 as a business development associate, working on mergers and acquisitions. Over his career at Lilly, he has held various leadership roles including general manager of Lilly Canada, president and general manager of Lilly China, president of Lilly USA, and president of Lilly Bio-Medicines. He was appointed CEO in January 2017 and became Chairman of the board in June 2017. Before joining Eli Lilly, Mr. Ricks worked as an account representative at IBM.
Lucas Montarce, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Lucas Montarce was appointed Eli Lilly's Chief Financial Officer in September 2024. He joined the company in 2001 and has since held a range of finance leadership roles. His previous positions include serving as CFO of Lilly Research Laboratories, Lilly International, and Elanco Health. Prior to his appointment as CFO, Mr. Montarce was the president and general manager for Lilly's Spain, Portugal, and Greece hub.
Patrik Jonsson, Executive Vice President and President, Lilly International
Patrik Jonsson joined Eli Lilly in 1990 as a sales representative in Sweden. Throughout his career, he has held numerous positions in sales, marketing, and general management internationally, including managing director of Sweden and Scandinavia, president and general manager of Eli Lilly Italia, and president and general manager of Lilly Japan. Most recently, he served as executive vice president and president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health and president of Lilly USA, before transitioning to his current role as Executive Vice President and President of Lilly International in May 2025.
Ilya Yuffa, Executive Vice President and President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities
Ilya Yuffa began his career at Eli Lilly in 1996 as a financial analyst. He has held various positions in finance, business development, sales, and general management, including managing director of Lilly Israel and president and general manager of Lilly's Italy Hub. Previously, he served as executive vice president and president of Lilly International before assuming his current role as Executive Vice President and President of Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities in May 2025.
Daniel M. Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Scientific and Product Officer, and President, Lilly Research Laboratories
Daniel M. Skovronsky assumed an expanded role in November 2025 as Chief Scientific and Product Officer, and President of Lilly Research Laboratories. In this position, he oversees research and development, as well as global launches and product strategy for Cardiometabolic Health, Immunology, and Neuroscience. He reports directly to Eli Lilly's Chair and CEO, David A. Ricks.
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Eli Lilly and Company, trading as LLY, faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by the dynamics of its highly successful GLP-1 drug franchise and the inherent challenges within the pharmaceutical industry.
- Dependence on GLP-1 Franchise and Intense Competition/Price War: Eli Lilly's recent growth has been overwhelmingly reliant on its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which creates a strategic vulnerability. The company operates in a fiercely competitive pharmaceutical sector, facing significant challenges from established global players like Novo Nordisk, especially in the diabetes and obesity markets. There are immediate concerns about a "price war" for GLP-1 drugs, which could lead to margin erosion as competitors announce price cuts. Any adverse event or increased competition in this highly concentrated segment could significantly impact the company's valuation and revenue.
- Manufacturing and Supply Chain Challenges: The immense and unprecedented demand for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, presents a significant manufacturing and supply chain challenge. Even with ongoing manufacturing expansions, there is execution risk in keeping up with this demand. Indicators such as a surging average inventory processing period and plummeting inventory turnover suggest potential issues in managing supply to meet this high demand.
- Patent Expirations and Loss of Exclusivity for Key Drugs: While newer blockbuster GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound and Mounjaro have patent protection extending to 2036 and 2041, respectively, including follow-on patents, other significant revenue drivers face upcoming expirations. For instance, Trulicity, a major diabetes drug and a key revenue source, is set to lose its U.S. patent exclusivity in 2027. Historically, Eli Lilly has faced challenges from patent expirations for several products, which can lead to a significant decline in revenues as generic alternatives enter the market.
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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) - Addressable Market Sizes for Main Products:
- Diabetes Products (Basaglar, Humalog, Jardiance, Trajenta, Trulicity):
- Global Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Therapeutic Market: USD 19,514.5 million in 2024.
- Global SGLT2 Inhibitors Market (for Type 2 Diabetes and comorbidities like heart failure and chronic kidney disease): USD 19.2 billion in 2024.
- U.S. SGLT2 Inhibitors Market: USD 7.3 billion in 2024.
- Oncology Products (Alimta, Cyramza, Erbitux, Retevmo, Tyvyt, Verzenio):
- Global Breast Cancer Therapeutics Market: USD 31.5 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Breast Cancer Therapeutics Market: USD 11.9 billion in 2024.
- Global Stomach Cancer Treatment Market (Gastric Cancer): USD 5.40 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Gastric Cancer Market: USD 893.1 million in 2024.
- Global Thyroid Cancer Market (across 7 major markets including US, EU4, UK, and Japan): USD 2,696.0 million in 2024.
- North America Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Treatment Market: Over 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 201.00 million in 2024.
- Immunology Products (Olumiant, Taltz):
- Addressable markets for rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis could not be specifically sized with the available information. Null.
- Neuroscience Products (Cymbalta, Emgality, Zyprexa):
- Global Schizophrenia Drugs Market: USD 8.36 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Schizophrenia Market: Approximately USD 6 billion in 2024.
- COVID-19 Therapeutics (Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, Bebtelovimab):
- Addressable market for COVID-19 therapeutics could not be specifically sized with recent and relevant data. Null.
- Men's Health (Cialis):
- Global Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Treatment Market: USD 12.49 billion in 2024.
- North America Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Treatment Market: Approximately 35% of the global market in 2024.
- Addressable market for erectile dysfunction could not be specifically sized with the available information. Null.
- Bone Health (Forteo):
- Global Osteoporosis Treatment Market: USD 15.73 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Osteoporosis Drugs Market: USD 10.1 billion in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Eli Lilly (LLY)
- Continued Strong Performance of Tirzepatide Franchise (Mounjaro and Zepbound): Eli Lilly's current GLP-1 medications, Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity), are expected to remain significant revenue drivers over the next 2-3 years. These drugs collectively generated substantial revenue in 2025 and continue to exhibit robust demand and sales growth, with Mounjaro's international expansion also contributing.
- Launch and Rapid Uptake of New Oral GLP-1 Therapies (e.g., Orforglipron): The anticipated approval and launch of new oral GLP-1 medications, particularly orforglipron, are projected to be a major catalyst for future revenue growth. Orforglipron is in late-stage clinical trials, with potential U.S. approval expected as early as Q2 2026. Its convenience as a pill and demonstrated superior efficacy compared to some competitors are expected to drive rapid adoption and significant sales. Another pipeline candidate, retatrutide, also holds considerable potential in the injectable weight-loss drug market.
- Expanded Manufacturing Capacity to Meet Surging Demand: Eli Lilly is making substantial investments in expanding its global manufacturing capabilities to address the high demand for its GLP-1 drugs and to prepare for new product launches. These multi-billion dollar investments in new and existing facilities are critical to ensuring adequate supply and supporting sustained revenue growth.
- Broader Market Access and Direct-to-Consumer Initiatives: Efforts to increase patient access through various channels are expected to fuel sales volume. This includes the expansion of the LillyDirect platform, direct-to-employer programs like Employer Connect, and anticipated broader coverage for obesity medicines through Medicare and Medicaid. These initiatives aim to reduce barriers to access and capture a larger share of the growing metabolic health market.
- Growth in Other Key Products and Pipeline Progression: Beyond the GLP-1 franchise, Eli Lilly's oncology portfolio, including products like Verzenio and Jaypirca, continues to contribute to revenue growth. The company also has a robust pipeline with numerous programs in late-stage development across various therapeutic areas, indicating additional potential future revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- Eli Lilly approved a new $15 billion share repurchase program in December 2024, expected to be executed over the next three years.
- This program followed the completion of a $5 billion share repurchase program in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- The company's annual share buybacks were $4.108 billion in 2025, $2.5 billion in 2024, and $750 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares showed a slight decline of 0.28% in 2025 to 895,018,757, and a minor increase of 0.09% in 2024 to 0.904 billion, indicating no significant share issuance.
Outbound Investments
- Eli Lilly has actively pursued acquisitions, including Orna for $2.4 billion (February 2026), Ventyx Biosciences for $1.2 billion (January 2026), and SiteOne Therapeutics for $1 billion (May 2025).
- In 2023, major acquisitions included Point Biopharma for $1.4 billion for radiopharmaceutical development, and DICE Therapeutics for $2.4 billion to expand its immunology portfolio.
- The company plans to invest up to $250 million over eight years in an expanded collaboration with Purdue University to accelerate pharmaceutical innovation, focusing on AI-powered drug discovery and supply chain resilience.
Capital Expenditures
- Eli Lilly's capital expenditures increased significantly, reaching $7.841 billion in 2025, up from $5.058 billion in 2024 and $3.448 billion in 2023.
- The company has committed over $55 billion globally to capital expansion since 2020, with over $50 billion specifically in the U.S., primarily to expand manufacturing capacity for GLP-1 therapies and other pipeline medicines.
- Recent and planned major manufacturing investments include a new $9 billion commitment at its Lebanon, Indiana, site, a $3.5 billion facility in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, and a $3 billion investment over ten years to expand supply chain capacity in China.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Does Eli Lilly Stock Have More Upside? | 07/22/2026 | |
| Eli Lilly Stock And The Price Of Confidence | 07/18/2026 | |
| How Much Upside Can LLY Stock's Growth Deliver? | 07/16/2026 | |
| How Does Eli Lilly Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 07/14/2026 | |
| What Could Push LLY Stock Higher From Here? | 07/11/2026 | |
| The Wide Divide Ahead for Eli Lilly Stock | 07/08/2026 | |
| What Eli Lilly Stock Said When It Had Too Much Business | 07/01/2026 | |
| Eli Lilly Stock Adds Risk, Not Diversification. | 06/27/2026 | |
| Everyone Is Watching Eli Lilly Stock's New Drugs. Here Is the Metric That Vanished. | 06/17/2026 | |
| Eli Lilly Stock's Trillion-Dollar Question | 06/17/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| LLY Has Momentum. The Question Is The Price | 07/22/2026 | |
| What Lilly’s Peer-Beating Numbers Cost You | 07/14/2026 | |
| How Does LLY Stock Reach $2,100? | 07/13/2026 | |
| The Wide Divide Ahead For Eli Lilly Stock | 07/08/2026 | |
| Should You Chase The Breakout In Eli Lilly Stock? | 06/29/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 254.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 381.7 |
| Rev LTM | 64,541 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,176 |
| FCF LTM | 12,242 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,467 |
| CFO LTM | 19,185 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,679 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 31.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 39.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 381.7 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.7 |
| P/EBIT | 23.8 |
| P/E | 32.3 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 28.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA220934 | FOUNDAYO | orforglipron calcium | tablet | 4012026 | 25.1% | 22.1% | 22.1% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| NDA218881 | INLURIYO | imlunestrant tosylate | tablet | 9252025 | 50.9% | 25.9% | 63.5% | 63.5% | 63.5% |
| BLA761306 | EBGLYSS | lebrikizumab-lbkz | injectable | 9132024 | -14.4% | -11.6% | -17.6% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| BLA761248 | KISUNLA | donanemab-azbt | injectable | 7022024 | -2.3% | -14.6% | -13.5% | 35.8% | 30.1% |
| NDA218160 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 4102024 | 23.5% | 21.1% | -4.8% | 25.0% | 55.0% |
| NDA217806 | ZEPBOUND | tirzepatide | solution | 11082023 | 17.4% | 25.6% | 29.7% | 51.5% | 91.5% |
| BLA761279 | OMVOH | mirikizumab-mrkz | injectable | 10262023 | 10.7% | 28.1% | 58.2% | 47.4% | 108.7% |
| NDA215866 | MOUNJARO | tirzepatide | solution | 5132022 | 6.0% | 21.2% | 50.7% | 165.2% | 312.3% |
| BLA761215 | REZVOGLAR | insulin glargine-aglr | injectable | 12172021 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 36.4% | 119.0% | 353.0% |
| BLA761109 | LYUMJEV | insulin lispro-aabc | injectable | 6152020 | 5.8% | 12.7% | 60.9% | 113.9% | 777.6% |
| ... | |||||||||
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA220934 | FOUNDAYO | orforglipron calcium | tablet | 4012026 | 25.1% | 22.1% | 22.1% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| NDA218881 | INLURIYO | imlunestrant tosylate | tablet | 9252025 | 50.9% | 25.9% | 63.5% | 63.5% | 63.5% |
| BLA761306 | EBGLYSS | lebrikizumab-lbkz | injectable | 9132024 | -14.4% | -11.6% | -17.6% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| BLA761248 | KISUNLA | donanemab-azbt | injectable | 7022024 | -2.3% | -14.6% | -13.5% | 35.8% | 30.1% |
| NDA218160 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 4102024 | 23.5% | 21.1% | -4.8% | 25.0% | 55.0% |
| NDA217806 | ZEPBOUND | tirzepatide | solution | 11082023 | 17.4% | 25.6% | 29.7% | 51.5% | 91.5% |
| BLA761279 | OMVOH | mirikizumab-mrkz | injectable | 10262023 | 10.7% | 28.1% | 58.2% | 47.4% | 108.7% |
| NDA215866 | MOUNJARO | tirzepatide | solution | 5132022 | 6.0% | 21.2% | 50.7% | 165.2% | 312.3% |
| BLA761215 | REZVOGLAR | insulin glargine-aglr | injectable | 12172021 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 36.4% | 119.0% | 353.0% |
| BLA761109 | LYUMJEV | insulin lispro-aabc | injectable | 6152020 | 5.8% | 12.7% | 60.9% | 113.9% | 777.6% |
| NDA213246 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 5082020 | 0.1% | -6.1% | 29.7% | 100.1% | 712.9% |
| NDA211280 | REYVOW | lasmiditan succinate | tablet | 10112019 | 28.1% | 36.0% | 47.8% | 124.1% | 1,064.2% |
| BLA761063 | EMGALITY | galcanezumab-gnlm | injectable | 9272018 | 6.3% | 22.1% | 7.6% | 46.9% | 1,108.3% |
| NDA207924 | OLUMIANT | baricitinib | tablet | 5312018 | 24.7% | 39.0% | 39.3% | 87.7% | 1,424.3% |
| NDA208855 | VERZENIO | abemaciclib | tablet | 2262018 | 3.9% | 32.7% | 59.1% | 74.2% | 1,527.8% |
| NDA208716 | VERZENIO | abemaciclib | tablet | 9282017 | 0.7% | -7.7% | 29.6% | 38.7% | 1,456.7% |
| BLA761038 | LARTRUVO | olaratumab | injectable | 10192016 | -0.7% | 4.3% | 12.8% | 50.1% | 1,628.7% |
| BLA125521 | TALTZ | ixekizumab | injectable | 3222016 | 1.6% | 12.5% | 20.4% | 12.2% | 1,813.0% |
| BLA205692 | BASAGLAR | insulin glargine | solution | 12162015 | -15.4% | -13.4% | -15.1% | 5.7% | 1,505.6% |
| BLA125547 | PORTRAZZA | necitumumab | injectable | 11242015 | -11.8% | -9.4% | -16.8% | 5.1% | 1,551.7% |
| BLA205747 | HUMALOG KWIKPEN | insulin lispro recombinant | solution | 5262015 | 5.9% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 11.0% | 1,787.5% |
| BLA125469 | TRULICITY | dulaglutide | injectable | 9182014 | 9.6% | 13.1% | 36.6% | 24.8% | 2,051.6% |
| BLA125477 | CYRAMZA | ramucirumab | injectable | 4212014 | 5.4% | 5.4% | 22.3% | 34.1% | 2,292.9% |
| NDA022504 | AXIRON | testosterone | solution, metered | 11232010 | 2.4% | 16.3% | 10.4% | 53.7% | 4,843.1% |
| NDA022332 | ADCIRCA | tadalafil | tablet | 5222009 | -1.2% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 25.0% | 5,232.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 65,179 | 45,043 | 34,124 | 28,541 | 28,318 |
| Total | 65,179 | 45,043 | 34,124 | 28,541 | 28,318 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 20,640 | 10,590 | 5,240 |
| Total | 20,640 | 10,590 | 5,240 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 78,715 | 64,006 |
| Total | 78,715 | 64,006 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,163.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,040.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,120.78 | $1,010.41 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.8% | 15.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.0% | 38.7% |
| Downside Capture | -61.44 | 28.44 |
| Upside Capture | 59.75 | 70.61 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 3.2% | 14.3% |
LLY Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.07 | -0.09 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| Up Beta | 0.66 | -0.26 | 0.93 | 1.46 | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| Down Beta | 0.41 | 0.22 | -0.29 | 0.35 | -0.06 | 0.69 |
| Up Capture | 4% | 75% | 76% | 19% | 70% | 58% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 31 | 57 | 134 | 406 |
| Down Capture | -89% | -116% | -47% | -1% | 41% | 81% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 32 | 68 | 118 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 53.9% | 38.6% | 1.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 23.3% | 15.8% | 1.13 | 68.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 14.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | -17.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 20.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 10.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 38.9% | 32.5% | 1.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.0% | 15.0% | 0.22 | 59.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 30.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | -1.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 25.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 8.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 32.9% | 30.3% | 1.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.8% | 16.6% | 0.48 | 60.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 39.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 30.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 7.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.8% | 16.0% | 30.0% |
| 2/4/2026 | 10.3% | 2.1% | -1.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | 13.8% | 30.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -10.8% | -12.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.6% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.8% | 16.0% | 30.0% |
| 2/4/2026 | 10.3% | 2.1% | -1.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | 13.8% | 30.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -10.8% | -12.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 10.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | -0.2% | 4.4% | 10.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.7% | 11.7% | 5.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | 14.9% | 18.7% | 23.6% |
| 2/2/2023 | -3.5% | -0.5% | -6.7% |
| 11/1/2022 | -2.6% | 0.8% | 2.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.6% | -2.9% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 10.3% |
| 2/3/2022 | -2.4% | -3.0% | 5.2% |
| 12/15/2021 | 10.4% | 6.2% | 0.1% |
| 10/26/2021 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 7.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | 3.8% | 8.3% | 5.1% |
| 4/27/2021 | -2.7% | -0.7% | 6.9% |
| 12/15/2020 | 6.0% | 6.9% | 18.2% |
| 10/27/2020 | -6.9% | -7.1% | 2.8% |
| 7/30/2020 | -5.4% | -4.6% | -7.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.6% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/02/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 82.00 Bil | 83.50 Bil | 85.00 Bil | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 81.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Performance Margin | 47.0% | 47.75% | 48.5% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 46.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | 35.5 | 36.2 | 37 | 5.8% | Raised | Guidance: 34.2 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 80.00 Bil | 81.50 Bil | 83.00 Bil | 28.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 63.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Performance Margin | 46.0% | 46.75% | 47.5% | 1.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 45.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Tax Rate | 18.0% | 18.5% | 19.0% | ||||
| 2026 Earnings per Share | 33.5 | 34.2 | 35 | 46.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 23.4 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 63.00 Bil | 63.25 Bil | 63.50 Bil | 3.7% | Raised | Guidance: 61.00 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Performance Margin (Reported) | 43.5% | 44.0% | 44.5% | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 42.75% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Performance Margin (Non-GAAP) | 45.0% | 45.5% | 46.0% | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 43.75% for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS (Reported) | 21.8 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 21.5 for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS (Non-GAAP) | 23 | 23.4 | 23.7 | 4.4% | Raised | Guidance: 22.4 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/21/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuffa, Ilya | EVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 1150.77 | 2,500 | 2,876,925 | 34,297,677 | Form |
| 2 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 995.36 | 15,828 | 15,754,537 | 91,454,696,564 | Form | |
| 3 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 1085.01 | 1,390 | 1,508,165 | 100,026,215,790 | Form | |
| 4 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 1085.04 | 3,593 | 3,898,531 | 100,029,936,528 | Form | |
| 5 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 1085.17 | 2,629 | 2,852,920 | 100,046,557,846 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuffa, Ilya | EVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 1150.77 | 2,500 | 2,876,925 | 34,297,677 | Form |
| 2 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 995.36 | 15,828 | 15,754,537 | 91,454,696,564 | Form | |
| 3 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 1085.01 | 1,390 | 1,508,165 | 100,026,215,790 | Form | |
| 4 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 1085.04 | 3,593 | 3,898,531 | 100,029,936,528 | Form | |
| 5 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 1085.17 | 2,629 | 2,852,920 | 100,046,557,846 | Form | |
| 6 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 1085.04 | 240 | 260,409 | 100,036,964,206 | Form | |
| 7 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 1109.30 | 15,632 | 17,340,625 | 102,274,384,375 | Form | |
| 8 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 1095.35 | 147,061 | 161,082,640 | 101,004,689,381 | Form | |
| 9 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 1068.52 | 142,307 | 152,058,091 | 98,688,295,322 | Form | |
| 10 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 1058.66 | 105,326 | 111,504,098 | 97,927,858,168 | Form | |
| 11 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 1051.66 | 37,148 | 39,067,117 | 97,391,524,342 | Form | |
| 12 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 1051.17 | 167,526 | 176,098,702 | 97,385,287,986 | Form | |
| 13 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 1034.78 | 60,213 | 62,306,969 | 96,039,609,306 | Form | |
| 14 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 1030.68 | 9,886 | 10,189,269 | 95,721,199,939 | Form | |
| 15 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 425738.48 | 178,295 | 75,907,041,787 | 39,543,474,018,274 | Form | |
| 16 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 1030.26 | 46,606 | 48,016,098 | 95,875,981,145 | Form | |
| 17 | Zakrowski, Donald A | SVP, Finance, & CAO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 1010.50 | 1,000 | 1,010,500 | 2,869,475 | Form |
| 18 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 1011.18 | 305,000 | 308,411,204 | 94,148,312,193 | Form | |
| 19 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 986.64 | 283,131 | 279,347,680 | 92,163,766,311 | Form | |
| 20 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 972.52 | 16,869 | 16,405,396 | 91,120,123,216 | Form | |
| 21 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 951.56 | 40,432 | 38,473,442 | 89,172,496,032 | Form | |
| 22 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 933.26 | 179,042 | 167,092,104 | 87,495,042,724 | Form | |
| 23 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 910.72 | 526 | 479,038 | 85,545,158,034 | Form | |
| 24 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 888.83 | 300,000 | 266,648,921 | 83,489,535,201 | Form | |
| 25 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 863.35 | 301,342 | 260,165,031 | 81,355,620,762 | Form | |
| 26 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 863.24 | 3,658 | 3,157,722 | 81,604,692,739 | Form | |
| 27 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10102025 | 852.49 | 10,602 | 9,038,055 | 80,591,439,893 | Form | |
| 28 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10092025 | 850.27 | 101,420 | 86,234,874 | 80,391,428,051 | Form | |
| 29 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 848.01 | 26,795 | 22,722,401 | 80,263,203,841 | Form | |
| 30 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 850.22 | 161,183 | 137,041,657 | 80,495,634,020 | Form | |
| 31 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 837.93 | 192,404 | 161,220,401 | 79,466,412,630 | Form | |
| 32 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 821.55 | 112,596 | 92,503,361 | 78,071,487,947 | Form | |
| 33 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 821.47 | 215,822 | 177,290,448 | 78,155,906,007 | Form | |
| 34 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 794.15 | 135,193 | 107,363,016 | 75,728,040,835 | Form | |
| 35 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10012025 | 763.39 | 113,694 | 86,793,274 | 72,898,741,331 | Form | |
| 36 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 763.10 | 23,665 | 18,058,643 | 72,956,985,099 | Form | |
| 37 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 9192025 | 764.65 | 106,626 | 81,531,959 | 73,124,096,657 | Form | |
| 38 | Zakrowski, Donald A | SVP, Finance, & CAO | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 734.93 | 1,000 | 734,930 | 2,821,881 | Form |
| 39 | Montarce, Lucas | EVP & CFO | Direct | Buy | 8152025 | 691.79 | 715 | 494,627 | 10,158,695 | Form |
| 40 | Alvarez, Ralph | Trust | Buy | 8142025 | 660.25 | 758 | 500,473 | 500,473 | Form | |
| 41 | Van, Naarden Jacob | EVP & Pres., Lilly Oncology | Direct | Buy | 8132025 | 647.36 | 1,000 | 647,360 | 13,311,007 | Form |
| 42 | Ricks, David A | President, Chair, and CEO | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 644.77 | 1,632 | 1,052,263 | 352,431,488 | Form |
| 43 | Skovronsky, Daniel | EVP, CSO & Pres. LRL & LLY Imm | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 634.40 | 1,000 | 634,405 | 87,332,263 | Form |
| 44 | Sulzberger, Gabrielle | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 641.18 | 117 | 75,018 | 1,733,150 | Form | |
| 45 | Fyrwald, J Erik | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 642.33 | 1,565 | 1,005,242 | 47,903,349 | Form | |
| 46 | Yuffa, Ilya | EVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 627.01 | 1,250 | 783,762 | 16,465,264 | Form |
| 47 | Jackson, Jamere | Direct | Buy | 8082025 | 639.56 | 200 | 127,913 | 6,012,995 | Form | |
| 48 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 805.07 | 280,000 | 225,419,259 | 77,074,852,343 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Capital Advisors, Inc. | $373.4 Mil | 42.8% | 73 | TRIM -5.0% | 13F |
| Bedel Financial Consulting, Inc. | $301.3 Mil | 34.6% | 293 | Hold | 13F |
| Goelzer Investment Management, Inc. | $497.1 Mil | 24.0% | 297 | Hold | 13F |
| Holistic Financial Partners | $62.3 Mil | 23.1% | 146 | Hold | 13F |
| Cascade Financial Partners, LLC | $217.7 Mil | 22.4% | 266 | Hold | 13F |
| Weatherly Asset Management L. P. | $251.2 Mil | 20.3% | 186 | Hold | 13F |
| Vega Investment Solutions | $84.5 Mil | 20.2% | 175 | TRIM -5.3% | 13F |
| Sapient Capital LLC | $1.3 Bil | 20.0% | 443 | Hold | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $92.0 Mil | 10.1% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $26.8 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $105.4 Mil | 8.4% | 33 | TRIM -19.4% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $25.3 Mil | 8.4% | 20 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Tri Locum Partners LP | $56.8 Mil | 8.0% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Artia Global Partners LP | $35.2 Mil | 7.9% | 48 | TRIM -24.3% | 13F |
| Blackhill Capital Inc | $134.0 Mil | 6.9% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $25.1 Mil | 6.9% | 17 | New | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $36.8 Mil | 6.9% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Codex Capital Asset Management L.L.C. | $16.9 Mil | 6.5% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $24.0 Mil | 6.0% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Unio Capital LLC | $25.7 Mil | 5.5% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $14.6 Mil | 5.0% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $69.5 Mil | 4.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Raub Brock Capital Management LP | $17.1 Mil | 4.3% | 43 | New | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $16.1 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $81.1 Mil | 3.9% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirova US LLC | $338.9 Mil | 3.8% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $81.1 Mil | 3.9% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $69.5 Mil | 4.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $34.7 Mil | 3.7% | 17 | New | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $34.7 Mil | 3.7% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $25.1 Mil | 6.9% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $22.4 Mil | 3.3% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $18.5 Mil | 3.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Raub Brock Capital Management LP | $17.1 Mil | 4.3% | 43 | New | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $16.1 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $14.6 Mil | 5.0% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $11.8 Mil | 3.5% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $26.8 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $25.3 Mil | 8.4% | 20 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'Neil Global Advisors, Inc. | $43.3 Mil | 14.9% | 45 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Revere Asset Management, Inc | $22.0 Mil | 7.7% | 34 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Artia Global Partners LP | $35.2 Mil | 7.9% | 48 | TRIM -24.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $105.4 Mil | 8.4% | 33 | TRIM -19.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Vega Investment Solutions | $84.5 Mil | 20.2% | 175 | TRIM -5.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Private Capital Advisors, Inc. | $373.4 Mil | 42.8% | 73 | TRIM -5.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sapient Capital LLC | $1.3 Bil | 20.0% | 443 | Hold | 13F |
| Goelzer Investment Management, Inc. | $497.1 Mil | 24.0% | 297 | Hold | 13F |
| Private Capital Advisors, Inc. | $373.4 Mil | 42.8% | 73 | TRIM -5.0% | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $338.9 Mil | 3.8% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Bedel Financial Consulting, Inc. | $301.3 Mil | 34.6% | 293 | Hold | 13F |
| Weatherly Asset Management L. P. | $251.2 Mil | 20.3% | 186 | Hold | 13F |
| Cascade Financial Partners, LLC | $217.7 Mil | 22.4% | 266 | Hold | 13F |
| Blackhill Capital Inc | $134.0 Mil | 6.9% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $105.4 Mil | 8.4% | 33 | TRIM -19.4% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $92.0 Mil | 10.1% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Vega Investment Solutions | $84.5 Mil | 20.2% | 175 | TRIM -5.3% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $81.1 Mil | 3.9% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $69.5 Mil | 4.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Holistic Financial Partners | $62.3 Mil | 23.1% | 146 | Hold | 13F |
| Tri Locum Partners LP | $56.8 Mil | 8.0% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $36.8 Mil | 6.9% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Artia Global Partners LP | $35.2 Mil | 7.9% | 48 | TRIM -24.3% | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $34.7 Mil | 3.7% | 17 | New | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $34.7 Mil | 3.7% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $26.8 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Unio Capital LLC | $25.7 Mil | 5.5% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $25.3 Mil | 8.4% | 20 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $25.1 Mil | 6.9% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $24.0 Mil | 6.0% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $22.4 Mil | 3.3% | 28 | New | 13F |
LLY Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high as Eli Lilly is executing flawlessly on a generational opportunity. Demand is accelerating, driven entirely by volume into a vast, underpenetrated obesity market. The company is meeting its ambitious manufacturing targets, the primary constraint on growth, while expanding industry-leading operating margins to 47.3%.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Patent-Protected Franchise(Volume of Prescriptions Sold) x (Net Realized Price per Prescription) Operating leverage from scaling sales of very high-margin products (incretins) faster than operating expenses. TTM revenue grew 47.4% while operating expenses grew only 26.4%.
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INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; the company is meeting ambitious production targets while demand accelerates.
Mechanism:
Volume growth in high-margin incretins (65% of Q1 revenue) drives operating leverage, with TTM revenue up 47.4% vs. opex up only 26.4%.
Supporting Evidence:
- Latest-quarter revenue growth accelerated to 55.5% year-over-year.
- Q1 2026 growth was driven by a 65% increase in volume.
- The company exceeded its goal to produce 1.8 times more incretin doses in 2025.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was increased by $2 billion.
- U.S. incretin market share grew for the fifth consecutive quarter.
PRIMARY RISK
The company's growth is entirely dependent on a massive, complex manufacturing expansion. Any delay or quality issue would directly cap revenue and market share gains, a risk heightened by extreme revenue concentration.
Mechanism:
A downward revision to manufacturing capacity or production volume guidance.
Supporting Evidence:
- Mounjaro and Zepbound now account for 65% of total revenue.
- Management flags manufacturing shortages as a key risk factor.
- Capital expenditure is a high 14% of TTM revenue, reflecting project scale.
- The Inflation Reduction Act is a structural headwind for key products.
- CVS Caremark stopped covering Zepbound on some insurance plans in July 2025.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Incretin Franchise Performance (Mounjaro & Zepbound) | In Q1 2026, Mounjaro and Zepbound accounted for 65% of total revenue, with combined sales of approximately $12.8 billion. - Accelerating | The incretin franchise is the overwhelming driver of company growth. Mounjaro and Zepbound accounted for 65% of total company revenue. The recent U.S. approval of the oral incretin a recently discussed product (orforglipron) is expected to further expand this franchise. |
| Overall Revenue Growth (YoY) | 55.5% year-over-year for the quarter ended 6/30/2026. - Accelerating | After a slight deceleration in Q1 2026 (42.6% YoY), revenue growth re-accelerated strongly in the latest quarter to 55.5% YoY, surpassing the 53.9% rate from two quarters ago. This indicates powerful and strengthening business momentum. |
| Incretin Dose Production Growth | Exceeded goal to produce 1.8 times the number of incretin doses (Full Year 2025 vs. 2024) | This signals the company's ability to scale manufacturing to meet the massive, supply-constrained demand for its key growth products, Mounjaro and Zepbound. It is a direct measure of the primary growth bottleneck. |
| Mounjaro and Zepbound Revenue Concentration | 65% of total revenue (Q1 2026) | This KPI indicates the extreme dependence on the incretin franchise for growth and profitability, highlighting both the success of the products and the concentration risk. |
Core Investment Debate
Hypergrowth vs. Execution Risk
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the company can execute its manufacturing build-out to meet overwhelming demand in a person market, driving years of high growth.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating revenue (55.5% YoY) and market share gains support extreme valuation multiples when growth is gated by manufacturing execution?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management has a perfect record of meeting production and launch goals, and inventory growth is now aligned with sales.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the extreme valuation (P/OCF > 51) leaves no room for error in a complex global manufacturing scale-up, making the stock vulnerable to any delay.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
on September 10, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A dividend per share is payable. |
10/13/2026 | Peer Contagion Risk Watch: JNJ's Innovative Medicine segment growth, commentary on pricing pressure, and any updates on their pipeline or market access. |
10/13/2026 | Peer JNJ Earnings Watch: Peer Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reports earnings. |
10/29/2026 | Earnings Volatility Risk Watch: Revenue growth, particularly for Mounjaro and Zepbound, and any change to full-year guidance. |
10/29/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: Eli Lilly reports its next quarterly earnings. |
10/29/2026 | Peers ABBV MRK Earnings Watch: Peers AbbVie (ABBV) and Merck (MRK) report earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Peers PFE AMGN Earnings Watch: Peers Pfizer (PFE) and Amgen (AMGN) report earnings. |
before the end of this year | a recently discussed product Regulatory Action Watch: Regulatory action on a recently discussed product (orforglipron) for type 2 diabetes is anticipated. |
later this year | Retatrutide TRIUMPH-4 Readout Watch: Results from the TRIUMPH-4 trial of retatrutide in obesity and knee osteoarthritis are expected. |
before the end of this year | Pipeline Execution Delay Watch: FDA communications, advisory committee meeting schedules, or company updates on the submission status. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-16 | AtaiBeckley Acquisition Announced Details: On 2026-07-16, Lilly announced a definitive agreement to acquire AtaiBeckley for up to $3.8 billion to advance therapies for treatment-resistant depression. | +1.9% $1156.63 -> $1179.11 |
2026-06-26 | Jaypirca EU Recommendation Details: On 2026-06-26, the CHMP recommended Jaypirca for approval in the EU for adults with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) across all lines of therapy. | +9.1% $1127.69 -> $1229.93 |
2026-05-12 | Positive Weight Maintenance Data Details: On 2026-05-12, Lilly announced that Foundayo and lower-dose Zepbound helped people maintain weight loss after switching from higher doses of injectable incretin therapy in two late-phase trials. | +5.0% $965.33 -> $1014.00 |
2026-04-30 | Guidance Raised Significantly Details: On 4/30/2026, the company raised its 2026 Revenue guidance by 2.5% and its 2026 EPS guidance by 5.8% to a new midpoint of 36.2. | +13.2% $849.75 -> $961.67 |
2026-03-31 | Centessa Acquisition Announced Details: On 2026-03-31, Lilly announced it would acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals to advance treatments for sleep-wake disorders, expanding its neuroscience portfolio. | +7.7% $885.11 -> $952.88 |
2026-02-19 | Positive Crohn's Data Details: On 2026-02-19, the company announced that patients with Crohn's disease maintained steroid-free remission for three years with Omvoh (mirikizumab-mrkz). | -1.1% $1018.81 -> $1007.79 |
2026-01-20 | Breakthrough Therapy Designation Details: On 2026-01-20, the FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy designation to sofetabart mipitecan for the treatment of certain patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. | +3.9% $1034.89 -> $1074.87 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: LLY trades at roughly 35% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.4x the market), around the 69th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson
Diversified StabilityJNJ offers a more diversified revenue base across pharmaceuticals and medtech, with a lower growth profile but less concentration risk than Eli Lilly.
Core Thesis: Invest in a stable, diversified healthcare leader with consistent capital returns and a lower valuation.
MRK - Merck
Alternative Growth DriverMerck provides exposure to different therapeutic areas, particularly oncology, which is a large and growing market independent of metabolic disease trends.
Core Thesis: Invest in a large-cap pharmaceutical company with a strong position in oncology and a robust pipeline.
How Is The Market Pricing LLY?
Eli Lilly is a manufacturing and commercialization engine executing on a generational, patent-protected product cycle in metabolic disease, where the primary constraint on growth is its own ability to scale supply.
The company is experiencing explosive growth from its highly effective Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs for diabetes and obesity, where demand far outstrips current supply. The central operational challenge is a massive global manufacturing expansion to meet this demand. While navigating significant systemic pricing pressures, the company's future is tied to the successful execution of this scale-up and the launch of its next-wave incretin products like a recently discussed product (orforglipron).
What will confirm the thesis
News of manufacturing facilities coming online ahead of schedule, faster-than-expected uptake of new launches like a recently discussed product, or positive data from next-generation assets like retatrutide.
What will damage the thesis
Significant manufacturing delays, quality control issues leading to production halts, unexpected clinical setbacks for pipeline assets, or more severe-than-guided pricing concessions.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Minor quarterly sales fluctuations in legacy products or early-stage pipeline announcements outside of core therapeutic areas.
Repricing Catalyst
The U.S. launch of a recently discussed product (orforglipron), an oral GLP-1, and upcoming Phase 3 data for retatrutide, a next-generation triple agonist, later in the quarter.
What LLY Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on fiscal year 2025 filings (the latest reported segment data)
LLY Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2022 · Pre-Incretin Dominance
+127%
The company was a more diversified pharmaceutical firm with revenues growing from 28,318 to 34,124, driven by a portfolio across multiple therapeutic areas.
2024-Present · The Incretin Growth Explosion
+102%
Revenue growth accelerated dramatically, jumping from 2024 to a TTM figure of $72.2 billion by 2026. This era is defined by the commercial success of Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have become the dominant drivers of the company's financial performance and strategy, representing 65 percent of revenue by 2026.
Market Appears To Be Aligned With Core Thesis
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild positive lean. The accumulation signals present but not yet dominant. Earnings history is strongly validating. The market rewarded the print and institutional follow-through confirms thesis re-rating is underway.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
9 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Trending Up · -
▾
2
Momentum
Decelerating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Outperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Strong Accumulation
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Flat
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Consistent Reward
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Pharmaceuticals Resources |
| Fierce Pharma |
| Pharm Exec |
| Endpoints News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/22/2026