Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (10/20/2025): $803.08 | Market Cap: $721.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (10/20/2025): $803.08Market Cap: $721.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 66x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 66x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
LLY Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
LLY Return | 31% | 66% | 34% | 61% | 33% | 5% | 556% |
Peers Return | -3% | 15% | 13% | -14% | 0% | -8% | -1% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
LLY Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 35% | 42% | 48% | 27% | 45% | 47% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
LLY Max Drawdown | -9% | -3% | -15% | -15% | 0% | -19% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -7% | -9% | -19% | -10% | -21% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, BGM. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -18.7% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 23.1% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -22.9% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -18.5% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -54.6% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1873 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Eli Lilly's stock fell -18.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/17/2021. A -18.7% loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADMA | ADMA Biologics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -4.6% |
09302025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.8% |
09262025 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.1% |
09192025 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.2% | 11.2% | -4.3% |
09052025 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.4% | -4.4% | -8.0% |
05312025 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.1% | 9.1% | -15.2% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADMA | ADMA Biologics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -4.6% |
09302025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.8% |
09262025 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.1% |
09192025 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.2% | 11.2% | -4.3% |
09052025 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.4% | -4.4% | -8.0% |
05312025 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.1% | 9.1% | -15.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Eli Lilly
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 64.21 |
Mkt Cap | 139.3 |
Rev LTM | 53,258 |
Op Inc LTM | 16,663 |
FCF LTM | 12,438 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 9,304 |
CFO LTM | 14,310 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 12,584 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
Op Mgn LTM | 26.1% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 23.8% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 19.5% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 139.3 |
P/S | 2.5 |
P/EBIT | 10.9 |
P/E | 16.4 |
P/CFO | 11.5 |
Total Yield | 11.5% |
Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
D/E | 0.4 |
Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 1.5% |
3M Rtn | 2.2% |
6M Rtn | -3.9% |
12M Rtn | -12.9% |
3Y Rtn | -10.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
3M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
6M Excs Rtn | -30.0% |
12M Excs Rtn | -26.9% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -96.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trulicity | 7,132 | 7,440 | 6,472 | 5,068 | 4,128 |
Mounjaro | 5,163 | 482 | 0 | ||
Verzenio | 3,863 | 2,484 | 1,350 | 913 | 580 |
Taltz | 2,760 | 2,482 | 2,213 | 1,788 | 1,366 |
Jardiance | 2,745 | 2,066 | 1,491 | 1,154 | 944 |
Zyprexa | 1,695 | 337 | 430 | 406 | 419 |
Humalog | 1,663 | 2,061 | 2,453 | 2,626 | 2,821 |
Other | 1,122 | 1,496 | 370 | ||
Cyramza | 975 | 971 | 1,033 | 1,033 | 925 |
Olumiant | 923 | 830 | 1,115 | 639 | 427 |
Humulin | 852 | 1,019 | 1,222 | 1,260 | 1,290 |
Other Oncology | 830 | 1,352 | 331 | ||
Basaglar | 728 | 760 | 892 | 1,124 | 1,113 |
Emgality | 678 | 651 | 577 | 363 | 162 |
Baqsimi | 678 | 139 | 113 | ||
Erbitux | 596 | 566 | 548 | 536 | 543 |
Other cardiometabolic health | 530 | 497 | 544 | ||
Other Neuroscience | 506 | 558 | 891 | ||
Tyvyt | 393 | 293 | 418 | 309 | |
Zepbound | 176 | 0 | 0 | ||
Other Immunology | 115 | 32 | 33 | ||
COVID-19 Antibodies | 0 | 2,024 | 2,239 | 871 | |
Alimta | 2,061 | 2,330 | 2,116 | ||
Cialis | 718 | 607 | 890 | ||
Forteo | 802 | 1,046 | 1,405 | ||
Cymbalta | 768 | 725 | |||
Other products | 1,340 | 1,874 | |||
Trajenta | 358 | 591 | |||
Total | 34,124 | 28,542 | 28,318 | 24,540 | 22,320 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
1/14/2025 | -6.6% | -6.9% | 9.5% |
10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -10.8% | -12.6% |
8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
4/30/2024 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 10.3% |
2/6/2024 | -0.2% | 4.4% | 10.6% |
11/2/2023 | 4.7% | 11.7% | 5.5% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 10 | 12 | 15 |
# Negative | 13 | 11 | 8 |
Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% |
Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.6% | -7.1% |
Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 23.6% |
Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10272021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
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