Tearsheet

Eli Lilly (LLY)


Market Price (10/20/2025): $803.08 | Market Cap: $721.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Eli Lilly (LLY)


Market Price (10/20/2025): $803.08
Market Cap: $721.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 66x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 66x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

LLY Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LLY Return31%66%34%61%33%5%556%
Peers Return-3%15%13%-14%0%-8%-1%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LLY Win Rate50%58%75%58%58%56% 
Peers Win Rate35%42%48%27%45%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LLY Max Drawdown-9%-3%-15%-15%0%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-7%-9%-19%-10%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, BGM. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventLLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-18.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-22.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven47 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-54.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1873 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Eli Lilly's stock fell -18.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/17/2021. A -18.7% loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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Better Bets than Eli Lilly (LLY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADMA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025ADMAADMA BiologicsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-4.6%
REGN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-0.8%
HAE_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09262025HAEHaemoneticsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.3%4.3%-0.1%
WAT_9192025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09192025WATWatersMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.2%11.2%-4.3%
ISRG_9052025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09052025ISRGIntuitive SurgicalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.4%-4.4%-8.0%
LLY_5312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312025LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.1%9.1%-15.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADMA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025ADMAADMA BiologicsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-4.6%
REGN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-0.8%
HAE_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09262025HAEHaemoneticsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.3%4.3%-0.1%
WAT_9192025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09192025WATWatersMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.2%11.2%-4.3%
ISRG_9052025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09052025ISRGIntuitive SurgicalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.4%-4.4%-8.0%
LLY_5312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312025LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.1%9.1%-15.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Eli Lilly

Financials

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXBGMMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.BGM  
Mkt Price802.8384.7924.5143.63189.109.1864.21
Mkt Cap720.9212.8139.388.654.3-139.3
Rev LTM53,25863,61663,83347,63621,386-53,258
Op Inc LTM22,88219,82116,6637,8702,955-16,663
FCF LTM-5014,72212,43813,0862,550-12,438
FCF 3Y Avg-15612,8999,30412,2252,504-9,304
CFO LTM10,93818,53415,18814,3103,254-14,310
CFO 3Y Avg7,23016,76612,58413,4193,278-12,584

Growth & Margins

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXBGMMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.BGM  
Rev Chg LTM36.8%1.8%13.5%4.6%7.9%-7.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.4%3.7%-12.4%0.5%4.1%-3.7%
Rev Chg Q37.6%-1.9%10.3%-5.6%10.4%-10.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.7%-0.5%2.2%-1.4%2.5%-2.2%
Op Mgn LTM43.0%31.2%26.1%16.5%13.8%-26.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg35.6%22.6%20.2%17.3%13.3%-20.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.8%-0.8%1.8%4.3%0.9%-1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM20.5%29.1%23.8%30.0%15.2%-23.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.8%27.2%18.8%28.9%16.3%-18.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.1%23.1%19.5%27.5%11.9%-19.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.5%20.9%13.8%26.4%12.4%-13.8%

Valuation

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXBGMMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.BGM  
Mkt Cap720.9212.8139.388.654.3-139.3
P/S13.53.32.21.92.5-2.5
P/EBIT40.610.410.410.921.7-10.9
P/E52.213.013.016.434.3-16.4
P/CFO65.911.59.26.216.7-11.5
Total Yield2.6%11.5%12.9%11.7%5.1%-11.5%
Dividend Yield0.7%3.8%5.2%5.5%2.2%-3.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.1%5.1%5.7%12.4%4.1%-5.1%
D/E0.10.20.40.60.4-0.4
Net D/E0.10.10.30.40.3-0.3

Returns

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXBGMMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.BGM  
1M Rtn6.8%4.0%2.0%-1.8%1.1%-7.6%1.5%
3M Rtn4.3%7.1%0.2%-6.6%6.3%-18.7%2.2%
6M Rtn-4.0%10.9%14.8%-9.0%-3.7%-16.6%-3.9%
12M Rtn-11.9%-19.1%-10.2%-13.9%-20.8%19.7%-12.9%
3Y Rtn150.2%-0.2%-32.7%-29.2%-10.6%--10.6%
1M Excs Rtn4.7%3.5%1.0%-3.5%-0.1%-8.6%0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-0.1%2.3%-4.7%-11.0%2.8%-19.3%-2.4%
6M Excs Rtn-30.2%-15.3%-11.4%-35.1%-29.9%-42.7%-30.0%
12M Excs Rtn-26.0%-35.8%-25.5%-27.8%-34.8%6.2%-26.9%
3Y Excs Rtn67.3%-83.7%-117.5%-114.4%-96.1%--96.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trulicity7,1327,4406,4725,0684,128
Mounjaro5,1634820  
Verzenio3,8632,4841,350913580
Taltz2,7602,4822,2131,7881,366
Jardiance2,7452,0661,4911,154944
Zyprexa1,695337430406419
Humalog1,6632,0612,4532,6262,821
Other1,1221,496370  
Cyramza9759711,0331,033925
Olumiant9238301,115639427
Humulin8521,0191,2221,2601,290
Other Oncology8301,352331  
Basaglar7287608921,1241,113
Emgality678651577363162
Baqsimi678139113  
Erbitux596566548536543
Other cardiometabolic health530497544  
Other Neuroscience506558891  
Tyvyt393293418309 
Zepbound17600  
Other Immunology1153233  
COVID-19 Antibodies02,0242,239871 
Alimta  2,0612,3302,116
Cialis  718607890
Forteo  8021,0461,405
Cymbalta   768725
Other products   1,3401,874
Trajenta   358591
Total34,12428,54228,31824,54022,320


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,686,850
Short Interest: % Change Since 91520255.0%
Average Daily Volume4,007,818
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.92
Basic Shares Quantity897,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/7/2025-14.1%-11.5%-2.4%
5/1/2025-11.7%-13.6%-17.8%
1/14/2025-6.6%-6.9%9.5%
10/30/2024-6.3%-10.8%-12.6%
8/8/20249.5%20.7%17.1%
4/30/20246.0%4.0%10.3%
2/6/2024-0.2%4.4%10.6%
11/2/20234.7%11.7%5.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101215
# Negative13118
Median Positive4.0%4.9%7.2%
Median Negative-3.5%-4.6%-7.1%
Max Positive14.9%20.7%23.6%
Max Negative-14.1%-13.6%-17.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211027202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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