Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 77x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 61x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 77x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 61x

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

LLY Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LLY Return31%66%34%61%33%22%666%
Peers Return-3%15%13%-14%0%-8%-0%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LLY Win Rate50%58%75%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate35%42%48%27%45%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LLY Max Drawdown-9%-3%-15%-15%0%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-7%-9%-19%-10%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, BGM. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/6/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-18.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-22.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven47 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-54.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1873 days1480 days

Compare to MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, BGM


In The Past

Eli Lilly's stock fell -18.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/17/2021. A -18.7% loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Eli Lilly (LLY)

Better Bets than Eli Lilly (LLY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.2%-6.2%-6.2%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-13.4%-13.4%-13.4%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.6%0.6%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.8%7.8%-7.0%
LLY_5312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312025LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
27.4%27.4%-15.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.2%-6.2%-6.2%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-13.4%-13.4%-13.4%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.6%0.6%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.8%7.8%-7.0%
LLY_5312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312025LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
27.4%27.4%-15.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Eli Lilly

Financials

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXBGMMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.BGM  
Mkt Price937.4485.7824.4246.63177.399.2066.20
Mkt Cap841.7214.0138.894.950.9-138.8
Rev LTM53,25864,23562,78648,03421,386-53,258
Op Inc LTM22,88222,39115,41711,4202,955-15,417
FCF LTM-5013,04910,37615,3022,550-10,376
FCF 3Y Avg-15613,6858,92713,5982,504-8,927
CFO LTM10,93817,06513,07716,6213,254-13,077
CFO 3Y Avg7,23017,50612,12714,8463,278-12,127

Growth & Margins

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXBGMMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.BGM  
Rev Chg LTM36.8%1.7%3.9%1.3%7.9%-3.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.4%2.9%-13.2%1.0%4.1%-2.9%
Rev Chg Q37.6%3.7%-5.9%2.8%10.4%-3.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.7%1.0%-1.6%0.7%2.5%-1.0%
Op Mgn LTM43.0%34.9%24.6%23.8%13.8%-24.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg35.6%23.7%19.4%19.0%13.3%-19.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.8%3.7%-1.4%2.9%0.9%-1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM20.5%26.6%20.8%34.6%15.2%-20.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.8%28.2%18.9%31.7%16.3%-18.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.1%20.3%16.5%31.9%11.9%-16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.5%22.0%13.9%29.0%12.4%-13.9%

Valuation

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXBGMMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.BGM  
Mkt Cap841.7214.0138.894.950.9-138.8
P/S15.83.32.22.02.4-2.4
P/EBIT47.49.311.79.520.4-11.7
P/E61.011.214.115.732.1-15.7
P/CFO77.012.510.65.715.7-12.5
Total Yield2.2%12.7%14.1%11.6%5.4%-11.6%
Dividend Yield0.6%3.8%7.0%5.3%2.3%-3.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.1%5.5%5.5%13.2%4.1%-5.5%
D/E0.00.20.40.50.4-0.4
Net D/E0.00.10.30.40.4-0.3

Returns

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXBGMMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.BGM  
1M Rtn11.1%-2.1%-7.0%4.4%-7.9%-5.1%-3.6%
3M Rtn46.6%7.8%0.8%4.2%-5.0%19.9%6.0%
6M Rtn25.3%12.7%10.2%2.2%6.8%-18.6%8.5%
12M Rtn21.7%-11.7%-4.5%-11.5%-24.6%24.0%-8.0%
3Y Rtn163.3%-6.3%-39.4%-32.7%-15.5%--15.5%
1M Excs Rtn11.3%-0.2%-4.4%5.2%-8.0%-6.4%-2.3%
3M Excs Rtn45.0%2.2%-5.8%-2.3%-13.0%14.3%-0.1%
6M Excs Rtn6.6%-6.0%-8.4%-16.5%-11.8%-37.2%-10.1%
12M Excs Rtn-0.5%-30.3%-23.5%-29.4%-40.4%2.2%-26.4%
3Y Excs Rtn98.4%-80.2%-114.3%-105.7%-94.4%--94.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trulicity7,1327,4406,4725,0684,128
Mounjaro5,163482   
Verzenio3,8632,4841,350913580
Taltz2,7602,4822,2131,7881,366
Jardiance2,7452,0661,4911,154944
Zyprexa1,695337430406419
Humalog1,6632,0612,4532,6262,821
Other1,122296   
Cyramza9759711,0331,033925
Olumiant9238301,115639427
Humulin8521,0191,2231,2601,290
Other Oncology830424   
Basaglar7287608921,1241,113
Emgality678651577363162
Baqsimi678139   
Erbitux596566548536543
Other cardiometabolic health530497   
Other Neuroscience506558   
Tyvyt393293418309 
Zepbound1760   
Other Immunology11532   
COVID-19 Antibodies02,0242,239871 
Alimta 9282,0612,3302,116
Cialis 587718607890
Forteo 6138021,0461,405
Cymbalta  582768725
Other products  1,7001,3401,874
Trajenta   358591
Total34,12428,54128,31824,54022,320


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,843,231
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-11.0%
Average Daily Volume3,718,380
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.84
Basic Shares Quantity897,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20253.8%13.8% 
8/7/2025-14.1%-11.5%-2.4%
5/1/2025-11.7%-13.6%-17.8%
1/14/2025-6.6%-6.9%9.5%
10/30/2024-6.3%-10.8%-12.6%
8/8/20249.5%20.7%17.1%
4/30/20246.0%4.0%10.3%
2/6/2024-0.2%4.4%10.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111214
# Negative12119
Median Positive3.8%6.8%8.4%
Median Negative-4.4%-4.6%-7.1%
Max Positive14.9%20.7%23.6%
Max Negative-14.1%-13.6%-17.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LILLY ENDOWMENT INC10142025Sell862.34468403,57581,522,614,033Form
1LILLY ENDOWMENT INC10102025Sell848.63600509,17880,235,403,637Form
2LILLY ENDOWMENT INC10092025Sell848.4618,13215,384,27780,290,506,263Form