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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more.
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LLY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Eli Lilly (LLY) stock movement:

**1. Strong Financial Performance and Raised Outlook**
Eli Lilly reported robust second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, with revenue growing 38% year-over-year to $15.6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share increasing by 61%. Despite an initial stock drop in premarket trading on the earnings announcement, the company raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, signaling an optimistic outlook for future profitability.

**2. Dominance and Expansion in the Weight-Loss and Diabetes Market**
The company cemented its position as a "weight-loss powerhouse" due to strong performances from key drugs like Zepbound and Mounjaro. Shares surged as health authorities considered adding weight-loss medications, including Eli Lilly's Zepbound, to Medicaid and Medicare coverage. Further expanding its market reach, Mounjaro is set to join China's state health insurance scheme starting January 1, 2026, making it more accessible to a vast patient population.

**3. Positive Clinical Trial Results for Key Therapeutics**
Eli Lilly announced positive trial results for its drug orforglipron, which showed significant weight loss and improved heart risk factors. Additionally, Mounjaro demonstrated superior outcomes over Trulicity in a cardiovascular event trial, further strengthening its profile.

**4. Success with New Drug Developments**
On December 7, 2025, Eli Lilly announced positive Phase 3 BRUIN CLL-314 results for Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib), demonstrating it met the primary endpoint of non-inferiority for overall response rate versus Imbruvica in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL).

**5. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets**
During this period, several research analysts issued optimistic assessments and price target increases for Eli Lilly. For instance, Scotiabank initiated coverage with a "sector outperform" rating and a $1,165.00 target price in November 2025, while Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an Outperform rating with a $1,300 price target, reflecting strong confidence in the company's long-term growth trajectory and pipeline.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LLY Return31%66%34%61%33%32%730%
Peers Return5%23%18%-7%-0%24%75%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LLY Win Rate50%58%75%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%58%43%45%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LLY Max Drawdown-9%-3%-15%-15%0%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-7%-8%-21%-7%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JNJ, MRK, PFE, ABBV, AMGN. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-18.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-22.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven47 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-54.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1873 days1480 days

Compare to MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, LHI


In The Past

Eli Lilly's stock fell -18.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/17/2021. A -18.7% loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Eli Lilly (LLY)

Better Bets than Eli Lilly (LLY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.8%-8.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.5%2.5%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.5%12.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.1%10.1%-5.1%
LLY_5312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312025LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
46.3%37.5%-15.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.8%-8.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.5%2.5%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.5%12.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.1%10.1%-5.1%
LLY_5312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312025LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
46.3%37.5%-15.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Eli Lilly

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LLYJNJMRKPFEABBVAMGNMedian
NameEli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer AbbVie Amgen  
Mkt Price1,010.31201.9399.7226.03226.08329.89214.00
Mkt Cap907.2486.3248.8148.0399.9177.5324.4
Rev LTM53,25892,14964,23562,78659,64435,97161,215
Op Inc LTM22,88224,14622,39115,41714,3668,67118,904
FCF LTM-5018,67913,04910,37619,68411,53912,294
FCF 3Y Avg-15617,81413,6858,92720,0129,06711,376
CFO LTM10,93824,20417,06513,07720,86013,12615,096
CFO 3Y Avg7,23023,20917,50612,12720,96210,32214,817

Growth & Margins

LLYJNJMRKPFEABBVAMGNMedian
NameEli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer AbbVie Amgen  
Rev Chg LTM36.8%5.1%1.7%3.9%7.4%10.6%6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.4%6.1%2.9%-13.2%1.2%11.2%4.5%
Rev Chg Q37.6%6.8%3.7%-5.9%9.1%12.4%7.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.7%1.7%1.0%-1.6%2.3%3.0%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM43.0%26.2%34.9%24.6%24.1%24.1%25.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg35.6%26.4%23.7%19.4%27.0%25.4%25.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.8%1.7%3.7%-1.4%0.6%0.6%1.2%
CFO/Rev LTM20.5%26.3%26.6%20.8%35.0%36.5%26.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.8%26.4%28.2%18.9%37.0%32.7%27.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.1%20.3%20.3%16.5%33.0%32.1%20.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.5%20.3%22.0%13.9%35.3%28.8%21.1%

Valuation

LLYJNJMRKPFEABBVAMGNMedian
NameEli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer AbbVie Amgen  
Mkt Cap907.2486.3248.8148.0399.9177.5324.4
P/S12.94.83.32.36.94.24.5
P/EBIT38.613.89.112.290.213.713.7
P/E49.617.811.014.7171.521.719.7
P/CFO62.618.412.311.119.611.615.4
Total Yield2.7%8.4%13.0%13.5%3.4%7.9%8.2%
Dividend Yield0.7%2.7%3.9%6.7%2.8%3.3%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.1%4.4%5.5%5.5%6.2%5.9%5.5%
D/E0.10.10.20.40.20.40.2
Net D/E0.10.10.10.30.20.30.1

Returns

LLYJNJMRKPFEABBVAMGNMedian
NameEli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer AbbVie Amgen  
1M Rtn9.3%8.9%15.6%6.5%3.2%3.8%7.7%
3M Rtn39.1%13.9%18.9%6.5%7.1%17.1%15.5%
6M Rtn31.7%32.0%28.8%15.4%21.0%15.4%24.9%
12M Rtn23.1%39.4%0.3%8.5%32.8%25.0%24.0%
3Y Rtn178.3%24.8%-1.6%-40.2%52.0%27.1%26.0%
1M Excs Rtn8.2%8.2%17.1%4.7%3.2%2.8%6.4%
3M Excs Rtn31.2%8.3%12.8%2.1%2.8%12.8%10.6%
6M Excs Rtn17.2%17.5%14.3%0.9%6.5%0.9%10.4%
12M Excs Rtn11.6%23.0%-12.0%-4.4%15.4%8.8%10.2%
3Y Excs Rtn110.4%-44.1%-69.4%-106.6%-11.8%-41.6%-42.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trulicity7,1327,4406,4725,0684,128
Mounjaro5,163482   
Verzenio3,8632,4841,350913580
Taltz2,7602,4822,2131,7881,366
Jardiance2,7452,0661,4911,154944
Zyprexa1,695337430406419
Humalog1,6632,0612,4532,6262,821
Other1,122296   
Cyramza9759711,0331,033925
Olumiant9238301,115639427
Humulin8521,0191,2231,2601,290
Other Oncology830424   
Basaglar7287608921,1241,113
Emgality678651577363162
Baqsimi678139   
Erbitux596566548536543
Other cardiometabolic health530497   
Other Neuroscience506558   
Tyvyt393293418309 
Zepbound1760   
Other Immunology11532   
COVID-19 Antibodies02,0242,239871 
Alimta 9282,0612,3302,116
Cialis 587718607890
Forteo 6138021,0461,405
Cymbalta  582768725
Other products  1,7001,3401,874
Trajenta   358591
Total34,12428,54128,31824,54022,320


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,247,713
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202512.6%
Average Daily Volume5,244,081
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.38
Basic Shares Quantity897,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20253.8%13.8%30.2%
8/7/2025-14.1%-11.5%-2.4%
5/1/2025-11.7%-13.6%-17.8%
1/14/2025-6.6%-6.9%9.5%
10/30/2024-6.3%-10.8%-12.6%
8/8/20249.5%20.7%17.1%
4/30/20246.0%4.0%10.3%
2/6/2024-0.2%4.4%10.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111215
# Negative12118
Median Positive3.8%6.8%9.5%
Median Negative-4.4%-4.6%-7.1%
Max Positive14.9%20.7%30.2%
Max Negative-14.1%-13.6%-17.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021