Tearsheet

Lumentum (LITE)


Market Price (10/30/2025): $214.86 | Market Cap: $15.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Lumentum (LITE)


Market Price (10/30/2025): $214.86
Market Cap: $15.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -192 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 118x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 576x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 263%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 226%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%
4   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -192 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 118x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 576x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 263%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 226%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

LITE Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LITE Return20%12%-51%0%60%155%126%
Peers Return-5%47%-16%11%0%92%150%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LITE Win Rate58%50%25%58%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate47%58%43%55%52%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LITE Max Drawdown-22%-29%-53%-31%-23%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-6%-40%-16%-30%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSCO, FFIV, ESE, VSAT, EXTR. See LITE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/29/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLITES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-66.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven202.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven641 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven136 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven380 days120 days

Compare to CSCO, FFIV, ESE, VSAT, EXTR


In The Past

Lumentum's stock fell -66.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2021. A -66.9% loss requires a 202.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lumentum (LITE)

Better Bets than Lumentum (LITE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LITE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADBE_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025ADBEAdobeMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.2%-4.2%-6.7%
CRM_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025CRMSalesforceMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.1%6.1%-0.6%
MPWR_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
18.8%18.8%-1.8%
POWI_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09262025POWIPower IntegrationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%-13.4%
ROP_9262025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09262025ROPRoper TechnologiesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-10.5%-10.5%-10.5%
LITE_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022LITELumentumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.2%-34.1%-38.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADBE_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025ADBEAdobeMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.2%-4.2%-6.7%
CRM_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025CRMSalesforceMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.1%6.1%-0.6%
MPWR_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
18.8%18.8%-1.8%
POWI_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09262025POWIPower IntegrationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%-13.4%
ROP_9262025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09262025ROPRoper TechnologiesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-10.5%-10.5%-10.5%
LITE_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022LITELumentumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.2%-34.1%-38.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lumentum

Financials

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Mkt Price214.2871.33258.76221.3139.1718.01142.81
Mkt Cap14.9282.514.95.75.22.410.3
Rev LTM1,64556,6543,0251,1904,5641,1402,335
Op Inc LTM-19212,504763175-1111897
FCF LTM-10513,28895514788127137
FCF 3Y Avg-5514,178741100-493133117
CFO LTM12614,1939882041,016152596
CFO 3Y Avg11014,986781143728152440

Growth & Margins

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Rev Chg LTM21.0%5.3%8.9%22.2%-1.4%2.0%7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.4%3.4%4.2%14.1%26.8%1.7%3.8%
Rev Chg Q55.9%7.6%12.2%26.9%4.0%19.6%15.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM11.7%1.9%2.9%5.6%1.0%4.6%3.8%
Op Mgn LTM-11.7%22.1%25.2%14.7%-2.4%1.6%8.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-14.4%24.5%21.8%14.2%-8.2%2.5%8.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM7.7%0.3%0.4%-0.5%-0.3%3.3%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM7.7%25.1%32.7%17.2%22.3%13.3%19.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.6%26.7%27.1%13.6%17.9%12.4%15.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-6.4%23.5%31.6%12.3%1.9%11.2%11.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.9%25.3%25.7%9.5%-14.7%10.8%10.1%

Valuation

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Mkt Cap14.9282.514.95.75.22.410.3
P/S9.15.04.94.81.12.14.9
P/EBIT-99.522.319.633.3-34.3118.420.9
P/E575.827.822.449.8-8.6-320.325.1
P/CFO118.119.915.128.05.115.717.8
Total Yield0.2%5.9%4.5%2.1%-11.6%-0.3%1.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.2%6.4%6.3%2.9%-20.9%4.8%3.9%
D/E0.20.10.00.11.40.10.1
Net D/E0.10.0-0.10.11.1-0.00.1

Returns

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
1M Rtn31.8%6.0%-19.8%6.9%37.9%-11.7%6.4%
3M Rtn95.1%5.1%-13.5%13.3%152.4%0.7%9.2%
6M Rtn262.9%25.1%-2.3%41.6%322.5%36.9%39.2%
12M Rtn225.9%31.4%7.7%72.0%281.0%26.7%51.7%
3Y Rtn186.3%70.6%78.1%160.0%-4.4%0.8%74.4%
1M Excs Rtn28.7%1.9%-23.0%1.8%30.7%-15.8%1.8%
3M Excs Rtn86.0%-3.3%-26.1%5.6%129.7%-6.7%1.2%
6M Excs Rtn239.2%1.3%-26.0%17.8%298.8%13.1%15.5%
12M Excs Rtn214.3%12.6%0.7%51.9%264.3%6.9%32.3%
3Y Excs Rtn114.5%-2.6%-7.3%99.1%-78.7%-63.6%-5.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cloud & Networking1,0851,322   
Industrial Tech274444   
Lasers  194122164
Optical Communications(OpComms)  1,5181,6211,515
Total1,3591,7671,7131,7431,679


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cloud & Networking124313   
Industrial Tech25153   
Gain on sale of assets, net00   
Intangible asset write-off0-21   
Litigation matters0-8   
Stock-based compensation - acquisition related0-12   
Amortization of acquired inventory fair value adjustments-8-18   
Acquisition related costs-13-12   
Abnormal excess capacity-210   
Integration related costs-37-29   
Other charges, net-40-64   
Restructuring and related charges-73-28   
Selling, general and administrative-112-127   
Stock-based compensation-129-136   
Amortization of acquired intangibles-151-128   
Total-434-116   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,228,334
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-0.0%
Average Daily Volume2,649,797
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.86
Basic Shares Quantity69,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.7%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/12/20250.5%-1.4%37.8%
5/6/20252.8%15.7%26.7%
2/3/20252.4%-2.8%-20.1%
11/7/202413.9%15.6%21.9%
8/14/202414.8%23.9%22.5%
5/6/2024-6.1%-0.2%2.9%
2/8/2024-22.4%-15.6%-18.9%
10/30/202310.3%18.5%17.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131313
# Negative111111
Median Positive4.7%13.6%10.3%
Median Negative-6.9%-4.8%-15.7%
Max Positive14.8%23.9%37.8%
Max Negative-22.4%-19.6%-26.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025819202510-K 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024821202410-K 6/29/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023823202310-K 7/1/2023
3312023509202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022209202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022824202210-K 7/2/2022
3312022504202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021203202210-Q 1/1/2022
93020211104202110-Q 10/2/2021

Insider Activity

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