Tearsheet

Lumentum (LITE)


Market Price (11/20/2025): $280.0 | Market Cap: $19.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Lumentum (LITE)


Market Price (11/20/2025): $280.0
Market Cap: $19.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.7%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 131x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 168x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 254%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 226%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 112%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.7%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 131x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 168x
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 254%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 226%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 112%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

LITE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Lumentum (LITE) experienced a significant stock increase of 144% between July 31, 2025, and November 20, 2025, driven by several key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings and Positive Outlook: Lumentum reported robust financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter 2025 on August 12, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88 against a forecast of $0.80, and revenue of $480.7 million, exceeding the anticipated $467.31 million. The company's revenue demonstrated a remarkable 56% year-over-year growth, driven by strong demand in optical hardware. Lumentum also achieved a 21% increase in full-year revenue for fiscal year 2025, reaching $1.65 billion, and saw its non-GAAP operating margin expand significantly. This strong performance and positive outlook contributed to a 4.03% increase in Lumentum's stock in aftermarket trading following the announcement.

2. Exceeding Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Expectations and Robust Guidance: On November 4, 2025, Lumentum announced strong fiscal first quarter 2026 financial results, once again beating analyst estimates with an EPS of $1.10 compared to an expected $1.03, and revenue of $533.8 million versus the $525.10 million forecast. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 58.4% year-over-year. Furthermore, Lumentum provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal second quarter 2026, projecting revenue between $630 million and $670 million and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.30 to $1.50, achieving this milestone two quarters earlier than initially targeted. This announcement led to a nearly 24% surge in the stock price on November 5.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LITE Return20%12%-51%0%60%220%239%
Peers Return-5%47%-16%11%0%80%134%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LITE Win Rate58%50%25%58%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate47%58%43%55%52%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LITE Max Drawdown-22%-29%-53%-31%-23%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-6%-40%-16%-30%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSCO, FFIV, ESE, VSAT, EXTR. See LITE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLITES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-66.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven202.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven641 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven136 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven380 days120 days

Compare to CSCO, FFIV, ESE, VSAT, EXTR


In The Past

Lumentum's stock fell -66.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2021. A -66.9% loss requires a 202.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Lumentum (LITE)

Better Bets than Lumentum (LITE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LITE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.2%-14.2%-14.2%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-4.0%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.5%-6.5%-6.5%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-2.7%-2.7%-4.0%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.3%-3.3%-6.5%
LITE_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022LITELumentumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.2%-34.1%-38.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.2%-14.2%-14.2%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-4.0%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.5%-6.5%-6.5%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-2.7%-2.7%-4.0%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.3%-3.3%-6.5%
LITE_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022LITELumentumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.2%-34.1%-38.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lumentum

Financials

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Mkt Price268.9278.39223.99217.0334.9216.92147.71
Mkt Cap18.9310.512.95.64.62.29.3
Rev LTM1,84256,6543,0251,1904,5641,1812,433
Op Inc LTM-10412,504763175-11134104
FCF LTM-8813,2889551478895121
FCF 3Y Avg-6114,178741100-493111105
CFO LTM14514,1939882041,016119596
CFO 3Y Avg12314,986781143728131436

Growth & Margins

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Rev Chg LTM33.6%5.3%8.9%22.2%-1.4%14.3%11.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.4%3.4%4.2%14.1%26.8%3.2%3.8%
Rev Chg Q58.4%7.6%12.2%26.9%4.0%15.2%13.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM12.0%1.9%2.9%5.6%1.0%3.6%3.2%
Op Mgn LTM-5.7%22.1%25.2%14.7%-2.4%2.8%8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-14.5%24.5%21.8%14.2%-8.2%1.9%8.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM6.0%0.3%0.4%-0.5%-0.3%1.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM7.9%25.1%32.7%17.2%22.3%10.1%19.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.5%26.7%27.1%13.6%17.9%10.0%15.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.8%23.5%31.6%12.3%1.9%8.0%10.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.8%25.3%25.7%9.5%-14.7%8.3%8.9%

Valuation

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Mkt Cap18.9310.512.95.64.62.29.3
P/S10.35.54.34.71.01.94.5
P/EBIT-289.524.517.032.7-30.661.120.7
P/E168.030.519.448.8-7.7260.239.7
P/CFO130.721.913.127.54.518.820.4
Total Yield0.6%5.4%5.2%2.2%-13.0%0.4%1.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.0%6.4%6.3%2.9%-20.9%3.6%3.2%
D/E0.20.10.00.11.50.10.1
Net D/E0.10.0-0.10.11.30.00.1

Returns

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
1M Rtn67.0%11.0%-24.5%0.4%-5.9%-17.3%-2.7%
3M Rtn132.0%17.5%-29.1%14.0%34.5%-14.9%15.7%
6M Rtn254.1%25.5%-21.8%22.1%248.9%6.4%23.8%
12M Rtn226.0%41.0%-6.5%48.7%411.3%9.7%44.9%
3Y Rtn378.5%79.1%50.0%139.5%2.6%-11.2%64.5%
1M Excs Rtn66.4%12.2%-23.8%-0.1%-3.4%-16.8%-1.8%
3M Excs Rtn124.7%13.4%-33.0%9.7%26.9%-19.5%11.5%
6M Excs Rtn240.4%11.9%-35.4%8.4%235.2%-7.2%10.2%
12M Excs Rtn217.0%26.8%-19.2%37.5%358.7%-4.8%32.2%
3Y Excs Rtn307.4%23.4%-18.4%80.4%-70.5%-75.0%2.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cloud & Networking1,0851,322   
Industrial Tech274444   
Lasers  194122164
Optical Communications(OpComms)  1,5181,6211,515
Total1,3591,7671,7131,7431,679


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cloud & Networking124313   
Industrial Tech25153   
Gain on sale of assets, net0    
Intangible asset write-off0-21   
Litigation matters0-8   
Stock-based compensation - acquisition related0-12   
Amortization of acquired inventory fair value adjustments-8-18   
Acquisition related costs-13-12   
Abnormal excess capacity-21    
Integration related costs-37-29   
Other charges, net-40-64   
Restructuring and related charges-73-28   
Selling, general and administrative-112-127   
Stock-based compensation-129-136   
Amortization of acquired intangibles-151-128   
Total-434-116   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,317,275
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520250.9%
Average Daily Volume3,383,440
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.05
Basic Shares Quantity70,300,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.7%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/202523.6%34.0% 
8/12/20250.5%-1.4%37.8%
5/6/20252.8%15.7%26.7%
2/3/20252.4%-2.8%-20.1%
11/7/202413.9%15.6%21.9%
8/14/202414.8%23.9%22.5%
5/6/2024-6.1%-0.2%2.9%
2/8/2024-22.4%-15.6%-18.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131312
# Negative111112
Median Positive4.7%13.6%9.0%
Median Negative-6.9%-4.8%-15.7%
Max Positive23.6%34.0%37.8%
Max Negative-22.4%-19.6%-26.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025819202510-K 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024821202410-K 6/29/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023823202310-K 7/1/2023
3312023509202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022209202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022824202210-K 7/2/2022
3312022504202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021203202210-Q 1/1/2022

Insider Activity

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