Tearsheet

Lumentum (LITE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $306.79 | Market Cap: $21.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Lumentum (LITE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $306.79
Market Cap: $21.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.7%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 79x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 102x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 277%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 242%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 112%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.7%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 79x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 102x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 277%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 242%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 112%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LITE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback


Lumentum (LITE) has experienced substantial stock price appreciation, with some reports indicating increases of over 260% in the last 12 months and 240% year-to-date in 2025. This strong performance is largely attributed to the company's significant role in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) optical market and robust financial results.

1. Strong Fiscal Q1 Results and Positive Forecasts: Lumentum reported impressive fiscal Q1 2026 results, surpassing expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10 against a forecast of $1.03. The company also saw a notable 58% year-over-year revenue increase. Furthermore, Lumentum provided a robust forecast for Q2, anticipating revenues between $630 million and $670 million, exceeding the projected $561.5 million. These strong financial indicators significantly boosted investor confidence.

2. Expansion in AI Optical Components and Cloud Markets: A major driver of Lumentum's stock surge is its strong position in the AI domain and its ability to meet the increasing demand for advanced optical components crucial for AI, cloud computing, and hyperscale data center growth. Analysts from firms like Northland and JPMorgan have raised price targets, citing rapid advancements in AI optical components and significant growth prospects in cloud and AI markets.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LITE Return20%12%-51%0%60%261%282%
Peers Return-5%47%-16%11%0%76%129%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LITE Win Rate58%50%25%58%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate47%58%43%55%52%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LITE Max Drawdown-22%-29%-53%-31%-23%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-6%-40%-16%-30%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSCO, FFIV, ESE, VSAT, EXTR. See LITE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLITES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-66.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven202.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven641 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven136 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven380 days120 days

Compare to CSCO, FFIV, ESE, VSAT, EXTR


In The Past

Lumentum's stock fell -66.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2021. A -66.9% loss requires a 202.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lumentum (LITE)

Better Bets than Lumentum (LITE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LITE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
LITE_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022LITELumentumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.2%-34.1%-38.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
LITE_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022LITELumentumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.2%-34.1%-38.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lumentum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Mkt Price302.9877.75240.63201.1534.2917.41139.45
Mkt Cap21.3308.013.95.24.52.39.5
Rev LTM1,84256,6543,0251,1904,5641,1812,433
Op Inc LTM-10412,504763175-11134104
FCF LTM-8813,2889551478895121
FCF 3Y Avg-6114,178741100-493111105
CFO LTM14514,1939882041,016119596
CFO 3Y Avg12314,986781143728131436

Growth & Margins

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Rev Chg LTM33.6%5.3%8.9%22.2%-1.4%14.3%11.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.4%3.4%4.2%14.1%26.8%3.2%3.8%
Rev Chg Q58.4%7.6%12.2%26.9%4.0%15.2%13.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM12.0%1.9%2.9%5.6%1.0%3.6%3.2%
Op Mgn LTM-5.7%22.1%25.2%14.7%-2.4%2.8%8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-14.5%24.5%21.8%14.2%-8.2%1.9%8.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM6.0%0.3%0.4%-0.5%-0.3%1.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM7.9%25.1%32.7%17.2%22.3%10.1%19.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.5%26.7%27.1%13.6%17.9%10.0%15.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.8%23.5%31.6%12.3%1.9%8.0%10.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.8%25.3%25.7%9.5%-14.7%8.3%8.9%

Valuation

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
Mkt Cap21.3308.013.95.24.52.39.5
P/S6.24.95.64.20.42.34.5
P/EBIT-175.221.722.328.9-12.874.622.0
P/E101.727.025.543.1-3.2317.535.1
P/CFO79.119.417.224.31.923.021.2
Total Yield1.0%6.0%3.9%2.4%-31.2%0.3%1.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.0%6.4%6.3%2.9%-20.9%3.6%3.2%
D/E0.30.10.00.13.70.10.1
Net D/E0.20.0-0.10.13.10.00.1

Returns

LITECSCOFFIVESEVSATEXTRMedian
NameLumentum Cisco Sy.F5 ESCO Tec.Viasat Extreme . 
1M Rtn51.8%4.4%-3.4%-9.4%-10.7%-7.3%-5.3%
3M Rtn125.9%15.6%-22.1%-0.1%16.2%-19.9%7.7%
6M Rtn277.4%22.2%-18.1%11.7%285.7%7.3%16.9%
12M Rtn241.6%34.1%-4.2%37.5%252.8%0.8%35.8%
3Y Rtn450.9%70.8%56.3%111.9%-3.2%-13.5%63.5%
1M Excs Rtn51.8%4.5%-3.3%-9.4%-10.7%-7.3%-5.3%
3M Excs Rtn108.2%9.7%-28.8%-6.4%8.6%-27.8%1.1%
6M Excs Rtn262.7%7.5%-32.8%-3.0%271.0%-7.4%2.2%
12M Excs Rtn234.8%21.1%-17.4%22.2%254.0%-8.7%21.7%
3Y Excs Rtn384.3%3.7%-13.9%47.6%-67.7%-85.3%-5.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cloud & Networking1,0851,322   
Industrial Tech274444   
Lasers  194122164
Optical Communications(OpComms)  1,5181,6211,515
Total1,3591,7671,7131,7431,679


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cloud & Networking124313   
Industrial Tech25153   
Gain on sale of assets, net0    
Intangible asset write-off0-21   
Litigation matters0-8   
Stock-based compensation - acquisition related0-12   
Amortization of acquired inventory fair value adjustments-8-18   
Acquisition related costs-13-12   
Abnormal excess capacity-21    
Integration related costs-37-29   
Other charges, net-40-64   
Restructuring and related charges-73-28   
Selling, general and administrative-112-127   
Stock-based compensation-129-136   
Amortization of acquired intangibles-151-128   
Total-434-116   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,528,387
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202511.7%
Average Daily Volume5,958,531
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.93
Basic Shares Quantity70,300,000
Short % of Basic Shares16.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025819202510-K 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024821202410-K 6/29/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023823202310-K 7/1/2023
3312023509202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022209202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022824202210-K 7/2/2022
3312022504202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021203202210-Q 1/1/2022