Luminar Technologies (LAZR)
Market Price (12/3/2025): $0.83 | Market Cap: $40.7 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Luminar Technologies (LAZR)
Market Price (12/3/2025): $0.83Market Cap: $40.7 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Future of Freight. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -148%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.8 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -282 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -389% | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 244% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -297%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -303% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -90% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Future of Freight. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -148%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.8 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -282 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -389% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 244% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -297%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -303% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -90% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 42% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LAZR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings and Reduced Full-Year Guidance: Luminar Technologies reported a significant miss on its Q2 2025 earnings, with an EPS of ($1.49) against an estimated ($1.19), and revenue of $15.63 million below analyst expectations of $17.27 million. Following this, the company dramatically lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $67 million and $74 million, down from the previous outlook of $82 million to $90 million, and also reduced its sensor shipment outlook.
2. Strategic Pivot and Workforce Reduction: Due to slower-than-expected adoption in the automotive sector, Luminar announced a strategic shift to focus more on non-automotive and commercial markets, elevating its LSI photonics business. This strategic realignment was accompanied by a plan to reduce its workforce by 25% by the end of the year, signaling significant operational challenges and a re-evaluation of its core business strategy.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LAZR Return | 233% | -50% | -71% | -32% | -89% | -85% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 15% | -21% | 16% | -27% | 16% | 2% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LAZR Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 17% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 52% | 45% | 48% | 35% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LAZR Max Drawdown | -6% | -57% | -71% | -52% | -90% | -85% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -3% | -31% | -12% | -37% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APTV, MGA, MBLY, BWA, ALV. See LAZR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/2/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LAZR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1492.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to APTV, MGA, MBLY, BWA, ALV
In The Past
Luminar Technologies's stock fell -93.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -93.7% loss requires a 1492.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LAZR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Luminar Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| Rev LTM | 12,398 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,220 |
| FCF LTM | 944 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 654 |
| CFO LTM | 1,372 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,259 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 12.7 |
| P/CFO | 6.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -87.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomy Solutions | 49 | 24 | 28 | 13 | 10 |
| Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS) | 38 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Eliminations | -18 | -12 | 0 | -5 | -3 |
| Total | 70 | 41 | 32 | 14 | 13 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS) | -50 | -29 | -0 | -0 | 0 |
| Autonomy Solutions | -514 | -413 | -214 | -87 | -63 |
| Eliminations | -0 | 0 | |||
| Total | -563 | -442 | -215 | -87 | -63 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomy Solutions | 474 | 640 | 883 | 512 | 52 |
| Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS) | 38 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Eliminations | -9 | -4 | -3 | ||
| Total | 512 | 687 | 884 | 510 | 52 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11182024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |