Luminar Technologies (LAZR)
Market Price (11/26/2025): $0.8032 | Market Cap: $39.4 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Luminar Technologies (LAZR)
Market Price (11/26/2025): $0.8032Market Cap: $39.4 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Future of Freight. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -147%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.8 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -282 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -389% | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 876% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -297%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -303% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -311% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 129% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Future of Freight. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -147%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.8 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -282 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -389% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 876% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -297%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -303% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -311% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 129% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 42% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LAZR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the significant stock movement for Luminar Technologies (LAZR) from July 31, 2025, to November 26, 2025:
1. Downgraded Full-Year Revenue Guidance and Continued Gross Losses in Q2 2025.
Luminar Technologies' shares initially saw a jump following its Q2 2025 earnings report on August 12, 2025. However, the company subsequently revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance downward to $67-74 million. Additionally, Luminar reported a GAAP gross loss of $12.4 million and a non-GAAP gross loss of $10.8 million for the quarter, reflecting ongoing financial challenges despite maintaining a cash position of $107.6 million.
2. Weakening Automotive Partnerships and Strategic Business Pivot.
During its Q3 2025 earnings announcement on November 13, 2025, Luminar revealed significant concerns regarding its key automotive partnerships. The company indicated an uncertain future relationship with Volvo, including pausing IRIS production commitments and filing a damages claim. Furthermore, development with Mercedes under the current HALO contract was not expected to continue. In response, Luminar announced a strategic pivot towards non-automotive markets such as aerospace and defense, and a review of strategic alternatives including potential sales of company assets or the entire business, alongside a planned 25% workforce reduction by year-end. This news contributed to a stock decline of 7.76% in aftermarket trading.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LAZR Return | 233% | -50% | -71% | -32% | -89% | -85% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 15% | -21% | 16% | -27% | 15% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LAZR Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 17% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 52% | 45% | 48% | 35% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LAZR Max Drawdown | -6% | -57% | -71% | -52% | -90% | -84% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -3% | -31% | -12% | -37% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APTV, MGA, MBLY, BWA, ALV. See LAZR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/25/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LAZR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1492.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to APTV, MGA, MBLY, BWA, ALV
In The Past
Luminar Technologies's stock fell -93.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -93.7% loss requires a 1492.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LAZR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.2% | -7.2% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.0% | 2.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -8.8% | -8.8% | -8.8% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.2% | -7.2% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.0% | 2.0% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -8.8% | -8.8% | -8.8% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Luminar Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.2 |
| Rev LTM | 12,398 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,220 |
| FCF LTM | 944 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 654 |
| CFO LTM | 1,372 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,259 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.2 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 12.7 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -18.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomy Solutions | 49 | 24 | 28 | 13 | 10 |
| Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS) | 38 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Eliminations | -18 | -12 | 0 | -5 | -3 |
| Total | 70 | 41 | 32 | 14 | 13 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS) | -50 | -29 | -0 | -0 | 0 |
| Autonomy Solutions | -514 | -413 | -214 | -87 | -63 |
| Eliminations | -0 | 0 | |||
| Total | -563 | -442 | -215 | -87 | -63 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomy Solutions | 474 | 640 | 883 | 512 | 52 |
| Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS) | 38 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Eliminations | -9 | -4 | -3 | ||
| Total | 512 | 687 | 884 | 510 | 52 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/31/2025 | -45.0% | -45.5% | |
| 8/12/2025 | -15.6% | -34.4% | -41.2% |
| 3/20/2025 | 33.0% | -2.1% | -39.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 10.8% | -15.2% | -51.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | -37.4% | -30.6% | -35.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 18.8% | 16.4% | -12.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | -4.8% | -12.4% | -28.8% |
| 11/8/2023 | -14.9% | -9.5% | -35.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| # Negative | 10 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 10.8% | 16.4% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -11.0% | -32.2% |
| Max Positive | 33.0% | 39.8% | 12.3% |
| Max Negative | -45.0% | -45.5% | -51.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11182024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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