Tearsheet

Luminar Technologies (LAZR)


Market Price (12/3/2025): $0.83 | Market Cap: $40.7 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment

Luminar Technologies (LAZR)


Market Price (12/3/2025): $0.83
Market Cap: $40.7 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Future of Freight. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -148%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.8
1   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -282 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -389%
2   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 244%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0%
4   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -297%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -303%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -90%
6   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 128%
7   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 42%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Technologies, and Future of Freight. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -148%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169%
2 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.8
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -282 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -389%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 244%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -297%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -303%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -90%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 128%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 42%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LAZR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings and Reduced Full-Year Guidance: Luminar Technologies reported a significant miss on its Q2 2025 earnings, with an EPS of ($1.49) against an estimated ($1.19), and revenue of $15.63 million below analyst expectations of $17.27 million. Following this, the company dramatically lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $67 million and $74 million, down from the previous outlook of $82 million to $90 million, and also reduced its sensor shipment outlook.

2. Strategic Pivot and Workforce Reduction: Due to slower-than-expected adoption in the automotive sector, Luminar announced a strategic shift to focus more on non-automotive and commercial markets, elevating its LSI photonics business. This strategic realignment was accompanied by a plan to reduce its workforce by 25% by the end of the year, signaling significant operational challenges and a re-evaluation of its core business strategy.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LAZR Return233%-50%-71%-32%-89%-85%-99%
Peers Return14%15%-21%16%-27%16%2%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LAZR Win Rate67%25%33%50%17%40% 
Peers Win Rate50%52%45%48%35%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LAZR Max Drawdown-6%-57%-71%-52%-90%-85% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-3%-31%-12%-37%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APTV, MGA, MBLY, BWA, ALV. See LAZR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/2/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLAZRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1492.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days

Compare to APTV, MGA, MBLY, BWA, ALV


In The Past

Luminar Technologies's stock fell -93.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -93.7% loss requires a 1492.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Luminar Technologies (LAZR)

Better Bets than Luminar Technologies (LAZR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LAZR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.2%1.2%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-1.8%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.0%4.0%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.2%1.2%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.2%1.2%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-1.8%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.0%4.0%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.2%1.2%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Luminar Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LAZRAPTVMGAMBLYBWAALVMedian
NameLuminar .Aptiv Magna In.Mobileye.BorgWarn.Autoliv  
Mkt Price0.8277.4849.3211.7843.22117.8946.27
Mkt Cap0.016.913.99.69.29.09.4
Rev LTM7219,79441,7901,93814,18310,61412,398
Op Inc LTM-2822,0891,988-3861,3171,1221,220
FCF LTM-2191,6572,0366281,261571944
FCF 3Y Avg-2601,3411,133390816491654
CFO LTM-2162,3423,5266931,7111,0331,372
CFO 3Y Avg-2482,1653,2184781,4791,0391,259

Growth & Margins

LAZRAPTVMGAMBLYBWAALVMedian
NameLuminar .Aptiv Magna In.Mobileye.BorgWarn.Autoliv  
Rev Chg LTM-5.2%-1.0%-2.0%7.6%0.1%0.8%-0.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg27.3%7.7%4.0%6.1%7.8%7.4%7.5%
Rev Chg Q-5.0%3.1%1.8%3.7%4.1%5.9%3.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%0.8%0.4%0.9%1.0%1.4%0.9%
Op Mgn LTM-388.8%10.6%4.8%-19.9%9.3%10.6%7.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-682.0%9.8%4.6%-14.9%9.1%8.5%6.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM109.1%0.1%-0.0%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-297.5%11.8%8.4%35.8%12.1%9.7%10.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-375.4%11.0%7.6%24.8%10.5%10.0%10.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-302.6%8.4%4.9%32.4%8.9%5.4%6.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-395.7%6.8%2.7%20.2%5.8%4.7%5.2%

Valuation

LAZRAPTVMGAMBLYBWAALVMedian
NameLuminar .Aptiv Magna In.Mobileye.BorgWarn.Autoliv  
Mkt Cap0.016.913.99.69.29.09.4
P/S1.90.90.35.90.70.90.9
P/EBIT-1.99.67.1-3.817.18.47.7
P/E-1.218.512.9-34.270.112.512.7
P/CFO-0.78.03.816.65.59.16.8
Total Yield-85.5%5.4%11.8%-2.9%2.1%10.4%3.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%0.6%2.4%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-69.1%6.5%8.6%2.8%9.2%5.9%6.2%
D/E3.20.40.60.00.40.20.4
Net D/E2.40.40.5-0.20.20.20.3

Returns

LAZRAPTVMGAMBLYBWAALVMedian
NameLuminar .Aptiv Magna In.Mobileye.BorgWarn.Autoliv  
1M Rtn-29.4%-4.5%5.5%-10.4%1.0%1.7%-1.7%
3M Rtn-49.8%-1.2%9.5%-14.2%1.7%-3.8%-2.5%
6M Rtn-76.2%15.8%38.5%-29.3%33.5%16.5%16.2%
12M Rtn-90.3%38.2%14.2%-32.3%27.8%22.2%18.2%
3Y Rtn-99.3%-25.3%-9.1%-63.1%19.9%48.9%-17.2%
1M Excs Rtn-29.3%-4.3%5.7%-10.3%1.2%1.9%-1.6%
3M Excs Rtn-56.3%-8.6%4.8%-19.9%-5.0%-9.8%-9.2%
6M Excs Rtn-90.6%1.4%24.1%-43.7%19.1%2.1%1.8%
12M Excs Rtn-104.8%25.7%1.2%-48.5%14.5%10.1%5.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-168.9%-96.4%-79.2%-129.6%-48.0%-23.9%-87.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Autonomy Solutions4924281310
Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS)3829366
Eliminations-18-120-5-3
Total7041321413


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS)-50-29-0-00
Autonomy Solutions-514-413-214-87-63
Eliminations  -00 
Total-563-442-215-87-63


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Autonomy Solutions47464088351252
Advanced Technologies and Services (ATS)38471032
Eliminations  -9-4-3
Total51268788451052


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,794,653
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202543.2%
Average Daily Volume9,185,952
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.26
Basic Shares Quantity49,087,995
Short % of Basic Shares42.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025520202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024328202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241118202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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