Kohl's (KSS)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $22.55 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Kohl's (KSS)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $22.55Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 32%, FCF Yield is 51% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 704% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -38% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 169% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 32%, FCF Yield is 51% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 704% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 169% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KSS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Kohl's (KSS) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Better-Than-Expected Q3 2025 Earnings Report: Kohl's reported a surprise adjusted profit of $0.10 per share for the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of a loss of $0.18 or $0.19 per share. The company also surpassed revenue estimates, posting $3.4 billion or $3.58 billion against an anticipated $3.32 billion or $3.37 billion. This strong performance led to a substantial surge in the stock price, including a 32.49% jump in pre-market trading and a 43% gain during the trading session on November 25, 2025.
2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Financial Outlook: Following the impressive third-quarter results, Kohl's raised its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to a range of $1.25-$1.45, up from its previous forecast of $0.50-$0.80. The company also projected a smaller decline in annual sales, revising its estimate to a 3.5%-4% decrease compared to a prior expectation of a 5%-6% decline. This improved outlook signaled a stabilizing business and fostered investor confidence in the company's future performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KSS Return | -17% | 24% | -46% | 24% | -46% | 67% | -38% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 103% | 1% | 13% | 9% | 23% | 207% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KSS Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 58% | 35% | 45% | 48% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KSS Max Drawdown | -77% | -5% | -49% | -27% | -47% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -5% | -24% | -16% | -11% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HD, TJX, DDS, M, BGO. See KSS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KSS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 254.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -77.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 342.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 215.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2324 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HD, TJX, DDS, M, BGO
In The Past
Kohl's's stock fell -71.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/24/2022. A -71.8% loss requires a 254.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KSS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 07312025 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 113.5% | 113.5% | -1.0% |
| 01312025 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -16.5% | 80.2% | -52.9% |
| 07312024 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -35.4% | -45.4% | -69.5% |
| 01312024 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -12.3% | -42.3% | -45.4% |
| 02282023 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.6% | 9.0% | -34.4% |
| 07312022 | KSS | Kohl's | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.8% | 5.9% | -34.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 07312025 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 113.5% | 113.5% | -1.0% |
| 01312025 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -16.5% | 80.2% | -52.9% |
| 07312024 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -35.4% | -45.4% | -69.5% |
| 01312024 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -12.3% | -42.3% | -45.4% |
| 02282023 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.6% | 9.0% | -34.4% |
| 07312022 | KSS | Kohl's | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.8% | 5.9% | -34.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kohl's
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 150.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| Rev LTM | 22,702 |
| Op Inc LTM | 849 |
| FCF LTM | 771 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 749 |
| CFO LTM | 1,396 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,383 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.8 |
| P/E | 11.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 15.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 72.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 57.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 25.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women's | 4,281 | 4,654 | 4,927 | 3,796 | 5,302 |
| Men's | 3,455 | 3,679 | 3,867 | 2,753 | 3,827 |
| Accessories (including Sephora) | 2,813 | 2,279 | 2,100 | 1,638 | 2,217 |
| Home | 2,533 | 2,791 | 3,344 | 3,381 | 3,249 |
| Children's | 2,060 | 2,176 | 2,435 | 2,082 | 2,460 |
| Footwear | 1,444 | 1,582 | 1,798 | 1,381 | 1,830 |
| Other revenue | 962 | 924 | 1,089 | ||
| Total | 16,586 | 17,161 | 19,433 | 15,955 | 19,974 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9042025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6062025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3202025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6062024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3212024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11302023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3162023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12012022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3172022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12022021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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