Tearsheet

CarMax (KMX)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $32.13 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

CarMax (KMX)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $32.13
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -123%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -234 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 388%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 14%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -123%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -234 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 388%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

KMX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -43.3% stock movement for CarMax (KMX) from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025: 1. Disappointing Q2 FY2026 Earnings and Revenue Miss. CarMax reported significantly lower-than-expected financial results for its second fiscal quarter, which ended August 31, 2025. Net sales and operating revenues decreased to $6.59 billion from $7.01 billion in the prior-year quarter, missing analyst estimates. Net income per diluted share fell to $0.64 from $0.85 a year ago, also below Wall Street's expectations of $1.06. This led to a substantial drop in the stock price by approximately 20-23% on September 25, 2025.

2. Decline in Used Unit Sales. A major contributor to the poor Q2 performance was a significant decrease in vehicle sales. Retail used unit sales dropped by 5.4%, and comparable store used unit sales declined by 6.3%. Wholesale units also saw a 2.2% decrease. The company attributed some of these declines to a "pull forward" in demand into the first fiscal quarter due to the announcement of tariffs, which negatively impacted Q2 sales performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KMX Return8%38%-53%26%7%-61%-63%
Peers Return42%37%-30%211%62%22%738%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KMX Win Rate67%75%25%50%58%30% 
Peers Win Rate63%58%37%52%52%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KMX Max Drawdown-50%-1%-57%-8%-12%-62% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-10%-40%-16%-18%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVNA, PAG, AN, AAP, KAR. See KMX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKMXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-64.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven178.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-56.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven130.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven143 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven172 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven369.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven687 days1480 days

Compare to CVNA, PAG, AN, AAP, KAR


In The Past

CarMax's stock fell -64.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -64.0% loss requires a 178.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CarMax (KMX)

Better Bets than CarMax (KMX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KMX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-5.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.6%-1.6%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-3.2%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
KMX_10102025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10102025KMXCarMaxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-20.2%-20.2%-28.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-5.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.6%-1.6%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-3.2%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
KMX_10102025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10102025KMXCarMaxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-20.2%-20.2%-28.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CarMax

Financials

KMXCVNAPAGANAAPKARMedian
NameCarMax Carvana Penske A.AutoNati.Advance .Openlane  
Mkt Price32.11323.12155.75193.2048.9325.16102.34
Mkt Cap4.845.010.37.32.92.76.0
Rev LTM26,36818,26630,68227,9158,6251,89522,317
Op Inc LTM-2341,7171,2961,284-748208746
FCF LTM685546757-178-401244395
FCF 3Y Avg51741877357-42214316
CFO LTM1,2086661,070111-191299483
CFO 3Y Avg9915291,125408169268469

Growth & Margins

KMXCVNAPAGANAAPKARMedian
NameCarMax Carvana Penske A.AutoNati.Advance .Openlane  
Rev Chg LTM1.8%45.5%2.2%6.1%-5.3%6.7%4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.4%11.6%4.3%1.3%-7.4%8.0%2.8%
Rev Chg Q-6.0%54.5%1.4%6.9%-5.2%8.4%4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.6%12.2%0.3%1.6%-1.3%2.1%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM-0.9%9.4%4.2%4.6%-8.7%11.0%4.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.0%3.5%4.5%5.2%-2.2%7.6%4.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.2%-0.1%-0.0%0.4%0.4%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.6%3.6%3.5%0.4%-2.2%15.8%3.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.8%3.8%3.8%1.5%1.9%15.1%3.8%
FCF/Rev LTM2.6%3.0%2.5%-0.6%-4.7%12.9%2.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%2.9%2.6%0.2%-0.5%12.0%2.3%

Valuation

KMXCVNAPAGANAAPKARMedian
NameCarMax Carvana Penske A.AutoNati.Advance .Openlane  
Mkt Cap4.845.010.37.32.92.76.0
P/S0.22.50.30.30.31.40.3
P/EBIT3.027.26.65.4-3.511.16.0
P/E9.271.510.911.0-7.815.710.9
P/CFO4.067.59.665.3-15.39.09.3
Total Yield10.9%1.4%11.6%9.1%-10.8%6.4%7.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.5%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.7%2.4%6.9%1.1%0.1%10.3%3.5%
D/E4.00.10.81.31.80.01.1
Net D/E3.90.10.81.30.7-0.00.7

Returns

KMXCVNAPAGANAAPKARMedian
NameCarMax Carvana Penske A.AutoNati.Advance .Openlane  
1M Rtn-25.2%-3.2%-7.3%-10.0%-8.9%-3.8%-8.1%
3M Rtn-45.1%-10.1%-13.0%-6.7%-13.1%-11.2%-12.1%
6M Rtn-52.8%5.9%-4.5%2.5%43.6%12.0%4.2%
12M Rtn-58.8%34.1%0.3%17.2%32.8%26.7%22.0%
3Y Rtn-51.8%3,908.9%35.3%61.4%-64.4%80.6%48.3%
1M Excs Rtn-25.3%-3.3%-7.5%-10.1%-9.0%-3.9%-8.3%
3M Excs Rtn-50.0%-10.2%-18.6%-12.5%-16.8%-14.5%-15.6%
6M Excs Rtn-64.6%-6.0%-16.4%-9.3%31.7%0.1%-7.7%
12M Excs Rtn-70.2%23.2%-11.0%4.2%10.8%14.4%7.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-123.2%3,065.8%-33.2%-7.2%-140.0%10.4%-20.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,629,871
Short Interest: % Change Since 1015202514.9%
Average Daily Volume6,617,985
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.51
Basic Shares Quantity149,291,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.1%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/25/2025-20.1%-19.3%-24.4%
6/20/20256.6%3.6%-1.2%
4/10/2025-17.0%-19.9%-17.4%
12/19/20243.5%4.6%-3.9%
9/26/20245.0%1.3%-2.6%
6/21/20240.4%2.8%13.2%
4/11/2024-9.2%-13.6%-10.4%
12/21/20235.2%4.2%-7.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive9109
# Negative151415
Median Positive6.6%4.4%12.4%
Median Negative-9.2%-11.1%-10.4%
Max Positive10.1%20.7%35.7%
Max Negative-24.6%-22.8%-28.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025926202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025626202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025411202510-K 2/28/2025
11302024107202510-Q 11/30/2024
8312024927202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024627202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024415202410-K 2/29/2024
11302023105202410-Q 11/30/2023
8312023929202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023626202310-Q 5/31/2023
2282023413202310-K 2/28/2023
11302022106202310-Q 11/30/2022
8312022930202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022627202210-Q 5/31/2022
2282022414202210-K 2/28/2022
11302021106202210-Q 11/30/2021

Insider Activity

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