CarMax (KMX)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $32.13 | Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
CarMax (KMX)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $32.13Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -123% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -234 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 388% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -123% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -234 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 388% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
KMX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -43.3% stock movement for CarMax (KMX) from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. Disappointing Q2 FY2026 Earnings and Revenue Miss.
CarMax reported significantly lower-than-expected financial results for its second fiscal quarter, which ended August 31, 2025. Net sales and operating revenues decreased to $6.59 billion from $7.01 billion in the prior-year quarter, missing analyst estimates. Net income per diluted share fell to $0.64 from $0.85 a year ago, also below Wall Street's expectations of $1.06. This led to a substantial drop in the stock price by approximately 20-23% on September 25, 2025.
2. Decline in Used Unit Sales.
A major contributor to the poor Q2 performance was a significant decrease in vehicle sales. Retail used unit sales dropped by 5.4%, and comparable store used unit sales declined by 6.3%. Wholesale units also saw a 2.2% decrease. The company attributed some of these declines to a "pull forward" in demand into the first fiscal quarter due to the announcement of tariffs, which negatively impacted Q2 sales performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KMX Return | 8% | 38% | -53% | 26% | 7% | -61% | -63% |
| Peers Return | 42% | 37% | -30% | 211% | 62% | 22% | 738% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KMX Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 25% | 50% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 58% | 37% | 52% | 52% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KMX Max Drawdown | -50% | -1% | -57% | -8% | -12% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -10% | -40% | -16% | -18% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVNA, PAG, AN, AAP, KAR. See KMX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KMX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 369.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 687 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CVNA, PAG, AN, AAP, KAR
In The Past
CarMax's stock fell -64.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -64.0% loss requires a 178.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| CarMax Earnings Notes | |||
| KMX: Strong Cash Flow at a Discounted Valuation? | Actionable | ||
| Is CarMax Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| KMX: Strong Cash Flow at a Discounted Valuation? | Actionable | ||
| CarMax Stock Down 6.7% in One Day, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for CarMax Stock with -25% Return (vs. -45% YTD) [9/26/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for CarMax Stock with -24% Return (vs. -44% YTD) [9/25/2025] | Notification | ||
| null | |||
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for CarMax Stock with -10% Return (vs. -33% YTD) [8/4/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for CarMax Stock with -10% Return (vs. -21% YTD) [7/11/2025] | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 7th, 2025 | ||
| Could CarMax Stock’s Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally? | October 23rd, 2025 | ||
| CarMax Stock Fell 26% in a Month, What Now? | October 16th, 2025 | ||
| Could CarMax Stock’s Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally? | October 15th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 8th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KMX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 10102025 | KMX | CarMax | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -20.2% | -20.2% | -28.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 10102025 | KMX | CarMax | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -20.2% | -20.2% | -28.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CarMax
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| Rev LTM | 22,317 |
| Op Inc LTM | 746 |
| FCF LTM | 395 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 316 |
| CFO LTM | 483 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 469 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.0 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/25/2025 | -20.1% | -19.3% | -24.4% |
| 6/20/2025 | 6.6% | 3.6% | -1.2% |
| 4/10/2025 | -17.0% | -19.9% | -17.4% |
| 12/19/2024 | 3.5% | 4.6% | -3.9% |
| 9/26/2024 | 5.0% | 1.3% | -2.6% |
| 6/21/2024 | 0.4% | 2.8% | 13.2% |
| 4/11/2024 | -9.2% | -13.6% | -10.4% |
| 12/21/2023 | 5.2% | 4.2% | -7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 4.4% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.2% | -11.1% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 20.7% | 35.7% |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -22.8% | -28.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9262025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6262025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4112025 | 10-K 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1072025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9272024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6272024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4152024 | 10-K 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1052024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9292023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6262023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4132023 | 10-K 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1062023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9302022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6272022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4142022 | 10-K 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1062022 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |