Tearsheet

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $29.54 | Market Cap: $40.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $29.54
Market Cap: $40.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
  
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KDP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) experienced significant stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 13, 2025, primarily driven by major corporate strategic announcements, investor reactions, and its quarterly earnings performance.

1. August 2025: Acquisition of JDE Peet's and Planned Company Split. Keurig Dr Pepper announced in late August 2025 its plan to acquire the European coffee company JDE Peet's for approximately €15.7 billion ($18 billion) in an all-cash transaction. This move was coupled with an intention to subsequently separate KDP into two independent, U.S.-listed companies: a "Beverage Co." focused on refreshment beverages and a "Global Coffee Co." Investors reacted negatively to the initial announcement, causing the stock to plunge by around 12% on August 25, 2025, and nearly 30% lower than its price prior to the announcement by early December 2025, due to concerns about the high acquisition price, significant new debt, and the risks associated with this "transformational transaction."

2. October 2025: Investor Day and Financing Updates for Acquisition. In response to initial investor concerns, KDP held an Investor Day on October 27, 2025, to provide more details on the strategy, leadership, and financing related to the JDE Peet's acquisition and the planned separation. The company announced new strategic investment agreements totaling $7 billion, co-led by Apollo and KKR, to help finance the acquisition and reduce projected net leverage. This update aimed to ease investor worries about debt, and the stock saw a positive reaction, with shares soaring and rising nearly 8% in premarket trading on the day of the announcement.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KDP Return13%17%-1%-4%-1%-5%18%
Peers Return20%14%6%-3%-4%9%47%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KDP Win Rate50%50%42%42%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%55%53%48%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KDP Max Drawdown-32%-4%-6%-20%-13%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-10%-18%-14%-14%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, SBUX, MNST, SJM. See KDP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKDPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-13.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven129 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-55.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven164 days1480 days

Compare to KO, PEP, MDLZ, KHC, STZ


In The Past

Keurig Dr Pepper's stock fell -30.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -30.4% loss requires a 43.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)

Better Bets than Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KDP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.0%7.0%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.7%-5.7%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.7%4.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%-5.1%
KDP_12312018_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312018KDPKeurig Dr PepperQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
16.3%15.4%-1.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.0%7.0%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.7%-5.7%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.7%4.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%-5.1%
KDP_12312018_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312018KDPKeurig Dr PepperQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
16.3%15.4%-1.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Keurig Dr Pepper

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KDPKOPEPSBUXMNSTSJMMedian
NameKeurig D.Coca-ColaPepsiCo StarbucksMonster .JM Smuck. 
Mkt Price29.5170.52150.6585.3573.97101.5779.66
Mkt Cap40.1303.4206.296.272.211.684.2
Rev LTM16,17447,66392,36637,1847,9758,77326,679
Op Inc LTM3,47514,91412,1933,5812,2581,3323,528
FCF LTM1,5995,5706,7882,4421,9456362,193
FCF 3Y Avg1,3366,3846,6453,1451,6427952,394
CFO LTM2,1287,60311,7554,7482,1809693,464
CFO 3Y Avg1,8558,33511,9745,6171,8881,2683,753

Growth & Margins

KDPKOPEPSBUXMNSTSJMMedian
NameKeurig D.Coca-ColaPepsiCo StarbucksMonster .JM Smuck. 
Rev Chg LTM6.8%2.8%0.5%2.8%7.6%-0.7%2.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.9%4.0%3.4%5.0%8.6%2.5%4.5%
Rev Chg Q10.7%5.1%2.7%5.5%16.8%2.6%5.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.6%1.3%0.7%1.3%4.1%0.7%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM21.5%31.3%13.2%9.6%28.3%15.2%18.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.8%29.7%13.8%13.0%27.6%16.6%19.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%0.7%-0.3%-0.8%1.4%-0.3%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM13.2%16.0%12.7%12.8%27.3%11.0%13.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.1%18.1%13.0%15.4%25.3%14.8%15.1%
FCF/Rev LTM9.9%11.7%7.3%6.6%24.4%7.2%8.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.7%13.9%7.2%8.7%22.0%9.3%9.0%

Valuation

KDPKOPEPSBUXMNSTSJMMedian
NameKeurig D.Coca-ColaPepsiCo StarbucksMonster .JM Smuck. 
Mkt Cap40.1303.4206.296.272.211.684.2
P/S2.16.02.12.68.21.32.4
P/EBIT12.216.319.0-29.0-17.7
P/E21.921.926.651.838.1-9.724.3
P/CFO16.337.516.420.330.112.018.3
Total Yield6.4%7.5%7.7%4.8%2.6%-6.3%5.6%
Dividend Yield1.8%3.0%3.9%2.9%0.0%4.0%2.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.3%2.4%3.1%-2.9%-3.0%
D/E0.50.20.0-0.0-0.1
Net D/E0.50.10.0--0.0-0.1

Returns

KDPKOPEPSBUXMNSTSJMMedian
NameKeurig D.Coca-ColaPepsiCo StarbucksMonster .JM Smuck. 
1M Rtn9.7%-0.7%5.4%-2.2%5.0%-7.5%2.1%
3M Rtn9.3%6.8%6.0%5.0%14.3%-4.8%6.4%
6M Rtn-9.2%0.8%17.4%-7.2%17.3%8.2%4.5%
12M Rtn-10.1%13.7%-1.4%-10.4%39.8%-6.9%-4.1%
3Y Rtn-15.0%20.6%-9.5%-10.1%47.3%-26.8%-9.8%
1M Excs Rtn10.0%-0.3%5.7%-1.8%5.3%-7.2%2.5%
3M Excs Rtn8.1%4.1%5.0%0.8%11.7%-2.9%4.5%
6M Excs Rtn-23.4%-13.5%3.2%-21.4%3.1%-6.0%-9.7%
12M Excs Rtn-22.4%2.3%-15.1%-23.9%26.4%-21.2%-18.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-89.2%-52.1%-82.3%-83.4%-27.4%-101.0%-82.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
US Refreshment Beverages8,821    
US Coffee4,071    
International1,922    
Beverage Concentrates  1,4861,3251,414
Coffee Systems  4,7164,4334,233
Latin America Beverages  599497528
Packaged Beverages  5,8825,3634,945
Total14,814 12,68311,61811,120


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
US Refreshment Beverages2,483    
US Coffee1,158    
International475    
Unallocated corporate costs-924 -755-647-638
Beverage Concentrates  1,047932955
Coffee Systems  1,4461,2681,219
Latin America Beverages  13310585
Packaged Beverages  1,023822757
Total3,192 2,8942,4802,378


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity32,760,120
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-6.0%
Average Daily Volume14,401,676
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.27
Basic Shares Quantity1,358,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/20257.6%0.0%0.7%
7/24/20250.2%1.0%5.1%
2/25/20252.4%0.0%-0.8%
10/24/2024-4.8%-10.1%-12.2%
7/25/20241.3%4.6%8.8%
2/22/2024-3.9%-5.0%-6.4%
10/26/20231.4%4.7%12.1%
7/27/20233.7%5.9%2.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101110
# Negative989
Median Positive3.1%4.6%6.0%
Median Negative-1.9%-4.3%-4.3%
Max Positive7.6%5.9%12.1%
Max Negative-4.8%-10.1%-13.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021