Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $27.47 | Market Cap: $37.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $27.47Market Cap: $37.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strategic Initiatives and Increased Leverage from JDE Peet's Acquisition and Planned Separation.
Keurig Dr Pepper announced an offer for JDE Peet's shares on January 15, 2026, and updated its financing plans on February 23, 2026, for this acquisition and subsequent split into two independent companies ("Beverage Co." and "Global Coffee Co."). The acquisition, targeted to close in early April 2026, is expected to result in a combined net leverage of approximately 4.5x, which may have introduced investor uncertainty despite expectations for the transaction to be about 10% EPS accretive in its first full year.
2. Persistent High Coffee Commodity Prices Impacting Coffee Segment Growth.
The company's coffee division experienced limited growth, with sales only edging up 0.6% in fiscal year 2025, primarily due to elevated coffee prices and tariff impacts. This macroeconomic factor directly affects a significant portion of Keurig Dr Pepper's business, including its new acquisition, leading to potential margin pressures.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.9% change in KDP stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.67 | 27.41 | -0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,174 | 16,603 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.8% | 12.5% | 28.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.8 | 17.9 | -24.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,358 | 1,358 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDP | -0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 3.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.8% | 59.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.1% change in KDP stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.59 | 27.41 | -4.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,759 | 16,603 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 12.5% | 28.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.3 | 17.9 | -29.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,358 | 1,358 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDP | -4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 3.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.6% | 52.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.7% change in KDP stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.50 | 27.41 | -15.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,351 | 16,603 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.4% | 12.5% | 33.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.6 | 17.9 | -41.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,356 | 1,358 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDP | -15.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 15.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 4.0% | 55.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.8% change in KDP stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.79 | 27.41 | -13.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,057 | 16,603 | 18.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.2% | 12.5% | 22.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.3 | 17.9 | -42.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,415 | 1,358 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KDP | -13.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 12.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 26.5% | 53.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KDP Return | 17% | -1% | -4% | -1% | -10% | -0% | -2% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 6% | -3% | -4% | 9% | 11% | 38% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KDP Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 53% | 48% | 52% | 73% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KDP Max Drawdown | -4% | -6% | -20% | -13% | -19% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -18% | -14% | -14% | -11% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, SBUX, MNST, SJM. See KDP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KDP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to KO, PEP, SBUX, MNST, SJM
In The Past
Keurig Dr Pepper's stock fell -30.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -30.4% loss requires a 43.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Keurig Dr Pepper:
- It's like a PepsiCo that also owns the Keurig at-home coffee system.
- A major non-alcoholic beverage company akin to Coca-Cola, but with a dominant coffee pod and brewer business via Keurig.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Coffee Systems & Products: Manufactures and distributes K-Cup pods, coffee brewers, and specialty coffee.
- Packaged Beverages: Produces and distributes its own branded packaged beverages, performs contract manufacturing for private labels, and distributes for partner brands.
- Beverage Concentrates: Manufactures and sells concentrates for a wide range of popular beverage brands and also produces syrups.
- Latin American Beverages: Produces and distributes various beverages in Latin America, including carbonated mineral water, soft drinks, bottled water, and vegetable juices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) primarily sells its products to other businesses, which then distribute or sell them to end-use consumers. While the provided background describes the types of customers served, it does not list specific customer company names. Based on the description, KDP's major categories of business customers include:
- Retailers: This broad category includes a variety of retail partners such as supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience stores, mass merchandisers, and drugstores. These retailers sell KDP's packaged beverages and K-Cup pods directly to consumers.
- Bottlers and Distributors: KDP manufactures and sells beverage concentrates to various independent and company-owned bottlers and distributors. These entities then produce and distribute the finished beverages under KDP's numerous brands. They also play a crucial role in distributing KDP's packaged beverages to various sales channels.
- Foodservice and Hospitality Establishments: This category encompasses customers such as restaurants, hotel chains, and office coffee distributors. These businesses purchase KDP products to serve to their patrons, guests, and employees, particularly through the Coffee Systems segment and for other beverage offerings.
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The primary emerging threat for Keurig Dr Pepper is the increasing environmental and sustainability backlash against single-use K-Cup pods. Growing consumer awareness, regulatory pressures, and the development of more sustainable (e.g., compostable, truly reusable, or system-agnostic refillable) coffee brewing alternatives pose a significant risk to KDP's core Coffee Systems segment, which relies heavily on the sale of K-Cup pods.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to KDP.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | BRBR | BellRing Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -1.7% |
| 02062026 | AVO | Mission Produce | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.7% |
| 01022026 | CALM | Cal-Maine Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.0% | 12.0% | -7.7% |
| 02282025 | KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -12.0% | -6.8% | -22.8% |
| 11302023 | KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.9% | 6.2% | -7.9% |
| 05312022 | KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | -8.4% | -8.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 94.1 |
| Rev LTM | 27,152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,538 |
| FCF LTM | 2,139 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,446 |
| CFO LTM | 3,186 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,767 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 94.1 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 19.0 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 22.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 4.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquid refreshment beverages (LRB) | 10,566 | ||||
| K-Cup pods | 3,614 | ||||
| Appliances | 772 | ||||
| Other | 399 | ||||
| International | 1,922 | ||||
| U.S. Coffee | 4,071 | ||||
| U.S. Refreshment Beverages | 8,821 | ||||
| Beverage Concentrates | 1,486 | 1,325 | |||
| Coffee Systems | 4,716 | 4,433 | |||
| Latin America Beverages | 599 | 497 | |||
| Packaged Beverages | 5,882 | 5,363 | |||
| Total | 15,351 | 14,814 | 12,683 | 11,618 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.41 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 37.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/07/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $28.35 | $29.24 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.3% | -6.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.0% | 26.8% |
| Downside Capture | 7.80 | 18.97 |
| Upside Capture | -33.07 | -0.95 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 2.9% | 16.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.20 | -0.21 | -0.05 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| Up Beta | 1.28 | 0.77 | 0.60 | 1.47 | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| Down Beta | 1.60 | -0.32 | -0.14 | -0.11 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Up Capture | 34% | -11% | 10% | -12% | -0% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 128 | 381 |
| Down Capture | -158% | -84% | -54% | -46% | 12% | 17% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 19 | 26 | 57 | 121 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | -13.9% | 26.8% | -0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.4% | 13.9% | 0.34 | 57.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 16.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 2.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 32.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 7.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | -0.9% | 20.6% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.1% | 13.1% | 0.40 | 59.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 28.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 35.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 9.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 8.9% | 23.7% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.8% | 14.7% | 0.40 | 46.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 33.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 36.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/24/2026 | 4.2% | 0.7% | |
| 10/27/2025 | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 7/24/2025 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 5.1% |
| 2/25/2025 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -0.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | -4.8% | -10.1% | -12.2% |
| 7/25/2024 | 1.3% | 4.6% | 8.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | -3.9% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 10/26/2023 | 1.4% | 4.7% | 12.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 1.8% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.4% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 5.9% | 12.1% |
| Max Negative | -4.8% | -10.1% | -12.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephens, Angela A | Senior VP & Controller | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 29.52 | 10,000 | 295,200 | 1,599,984 | Form |
| 2 | Gorli, Eric | President, US Refreshment Bev. | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 27.69 | 9,175 | 254,056 | 2,227,162 | Form |
| 3 | Gamgort, Robert James | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 35.91 | 7,601 | 272,952 | 82,038,837 | Form | |
| 4 | Gamgort, Robert James | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 32.90 | 208,000 | 6,843,200 | 75,412,360 | Form | |
| 5 | Gamgort, Robert James | Direct | Sell | 7312025 | 33.18 | 208,000 | 6,901,856 | 82,960,608 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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