Tearsheet

Kellanova (K)


Market Price (12/16/2025): $83.44 | Market Cap: $29.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Kellanova (K)


Market Price (12/16/2025): $83.44
Market Cap: $29.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

K Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 16, 2025, Kellanova (K) experienced significant stock movement primarily driven by its acquisition by Mars, Incorporated. Here are five key points explaining the stock's trajectory during this period:

1. Acquisition by Mars, Incorporated Completed The most significant factor influencing Kellanova's stock was the completion of its acquisition by Mars, Incorporated. This all-cash transaction, valued at approximately $36 billion, officially closed on December 11, 2025, leading to Kellanova becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mars. The definitive agreement for the acquisition, which set the price at $83.50 per share, was initially announced in August 2024.

2. Regulatory Approvals Secured The stock's upward movement and stability toward the acquisition price were bolstered by the consistent progress in securing necessary regulatory approvals. The final major hurdle was cleared on December 8, 2025, when the European Commission granted its unconditional approval for the merger. This final approval eliminated uncertainty and solidified investor confidence in the deal's completion.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
K Return-7%7%14%-13%50%
Peers Return11%19%16%-7%-8%-7%21%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
K Win Rate58%50%58%42%75%73% 
Peers Win Rate58%57%55%45%40%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
K Max Drawdown-22%-9%-6%-26%-4%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-8%-8%-17%-10%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PEP, MDLZ, HSY, KHC, GIS. See K Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/15/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-36.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven307 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-24.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven127 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1163 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-37.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven783 days1480 days

Compare to DAR, FRPT, BRBF, MEHA, MDLZ


In The Past

Kellanova's stock fell -36.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/31/2022. A -36.7% loss requires a 58.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kellanova (K)

Better Bets than Kellanova (K)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to K. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.6%5.6%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.3%-7.3%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.6%5.6%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.3%-7.3%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kellanova

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KPEPMDLZHSYKHCGISMedian
NameKellanovaPepsiCo Mondelez.Hershey Kraft He.General . 
Mkt Price-151.2254.26188.1124.5047.0654.26
Mkt Cap29.0207.070.238.229.025.533.6
Rev LTM12,64392,36637,64511,29525,16419,15622,160
Op Inc LTM1,85512,1934,3342,1554,8953,1413,738
FCF LTM6506,7882,2901,5793,6312,0962,193
FCF 3Y Avg8956,6453,1561,5393,0472,3002,674
CFO LTM1,30511,7553,5762,1464,4742,6913,134
CFO 3Y Avg1,51211,9744,3782,1934,0663,0033,534

Growth & Margins

KPEPMDLZHSYKHCGISMedian
NameKellanovaPepsiCo Mondelez.Hershey Kraft He.General . 
Rev Chg LTM-1.4%0.5%4.1%2.5%-3.7%-3.3%-0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.5%3.4%7.5%5.2%-0.8%0.1%2.5%
Rev Chg Q0.3%2.7%5.9%26.0%-2.3%-6.8%1.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%0.7%1.5%5.0%-0.6%-1.7%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM14.7%13.2%11.5%19.1%19.5%16.4%15.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.1%13.8%14.5%21.6%19.6%16.9%15.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-0.3%-1.6%-1.9%-0.9%-0.5%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM10.3%12.7%9.5%19.0%17.8%14.0%13.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.2%13.0%12.1%19.8%15.6%15.2%14.1%
FCF/Rev LTM5.1%7.3%6.1%14.0%14.4%10.9%9.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.2%7.2%8.7%13.9%11.7%11.7%10.2%

Valuation

KPEPMDLZHSYKHCGISMedian
NameKellanovaPepsiCo Mondelez.Hershey Kraft He.General . 
Mkt Cap29.0207.070.238.229.025.533.6
P/S2.32.12.13.41.21.52.1
P/EBIT15.119.018.919.9-5.58.717.0
P/E21.326.622.924.8-7.19.622.1
P/CFO21.816.422.617.76.910.417.0
Total Yield7.5%7.7%7.4%6.9%-8.0%15.2%7.4%
Dividend Yield2.8%3.9%3.1%2.9%6.2%4.7%3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%3.1%3.4%3.9%8.3%6.6%3.8%
D/E0.20.00.30.20.70.50.2
Net D/E0.20.00.30.10.60.50.2

Returns

KPEPMDLZHSYKHCGISMedian
NameKellanovaPepsiCo Mondelez.Hershey Kraft He.General . 
1M Rtn-4.7%-4.6%5.0%0.2%-0.7%0.2%
3M Rtn-8.6%-11.2%2.2%-2.9%-2.8%-2.8%
6M Rtn-17.3%-18.0%12.1%-2.1%-9.9%-2.1%
12M Rtn--0.4%-9.7%6.1%-18.1%-26.2%-9.7%
3Y Rtn--7.4%-11.4%-13.7%-28.7%-39.6%-13.7%
1M Excs Rtn-4.1%-5.9%4.4%-1.5%-1.7%-1.5%
3M Excs Rtn-5.9%-15.9%-5.2%-7.2%-7.0%-7.0%
6M Excs Rtn-4.4%-31.0%-0.9%-15.1%-22.9%-15.1%
12M Excs Rtn--11.7%-23.5%-2.3%-29.1%-36.9%-23.5%
3Y Excs Rtn--81.1%-85.3%-88.0%-101.1%-112.0%-88.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Snacks8,1057,5636,8076,2816,663
Cereal2,7362,6185,1235,4335,029
Noodles and other1,1861,3751,145917849
Frozen1,0951,0971,1061,1391,037
Total13,12212,65314,18113,77013,578


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,481,767
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.2%
Average Daily Volume2,870,798
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.65
Basic Shares Quantity347,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20250.1%0.2%0.8%
7/31/20250.0%0.1%-0.4%
5/1/20250.0%-0.3%-0.2%
2/6/20250.3%0.4%1.4%
10/31/2024-0.2%0.1%0.5%
8/1/20246.7%25.5%38.5%
5/2/20247.5%9.4%5.9%
2/8/20242.3%0.6%2.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131613
# Negative11811
Median Positive2.1%2.3%2.0%
Median Negative-0.6%-1.9%-1.8%
Max Positive7.5%25.5%38.5%
Max Negative-8.5%-6.4%-8.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023504202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022804202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022505202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data