Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $244.0 | Market Cap: $587.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $244.0Market Cap: $587.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | Key risksJNJ key risks include [1] massive financial and reputational damage from tens of thousands of unresolved talcum powder lawsuits, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 25 Bil, FCF LTM is 19 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 25 Bil, FCF LTM is 19 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
| Key risksJNJ key risks include [1] massive financial and reputational damage from tens of thousands of unresolved talcum powder lawsuits, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Fourth-Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Upbeat 2026 Outlook.
Johnson & Johnson's stock gained following its Q4 2025 earnings report on January 21, 2026, which showcased revenue of $24.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $24.15 billion by 1.86%. Although adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.46 met forecasts, the company provided an optimistic outlook for 2026, projecting estimated reported sales of $100.5 billion (midpoint) and adjusted EPS of $11.53 (midpoint). This guidance exceeded consensus estimates of $98.5 billion in sales and indicated the company's ability to navigate financial headwinds, including "hundreds of millions of dollars" in costs from a drug pricing deal with the Trump administration.
2. Robust Performance and Pipeline Expansion in Innovative Medicine.
The Innovative Medicine segment demonstrated strong growth, with worldwide operational sales increasing by 5.3% in 2025. This was primarily driven by key oncology products such as DARZALEX, CARVYKTI, ERLEADA, and RYBREVANT/LAZCLUZE, as well as the neuroscience drug SPRAVATO. Specifically, Q4 2025 Innovative Medicine sales grew 10% to $15.76 billion, exceeding estimates of $15.37 billion, with the oncology portfolio revenue climbing nearly 20%. Additionally, the company received FDA approvals for CAPLYTA for major depressive disorder and RYBREVANT FASPRO plus LAZCLUZE for non-small cell lung cancer. The acquisition of Halda Therapeutics for $3.05 billion, completed by December 29, 2025, further strengthened J&J's oncology pipeline, particularly in prostate cancer therapies.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.2% change in JNJ stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 205.83 | 243.19 | 18.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 92,149 | 94,193 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.3% | 28.5% | 4.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 21.8 | 10.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,408 | 2,408 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 18.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.1% | -6.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.2% | 44.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.9% change in JNJ stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 175.12 | 243.19 | 38.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90,627 | 94,193 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.0% | 28.5% | 13.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.6 | 21.8 | 17.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,406 | 2,408 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 38.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.0% | -5.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 10.4% | 44.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.5% change in JNJ stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 160.55 | 243.19 | 51.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 88,821 | 94,193 | 6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.8% | 28.5% | 79.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 21.8 | -20.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,407 | 2,408 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 51.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 6.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 2.7% | 54.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 73.5% change in JNJ stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 140.16 | 243.19 | 73.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 87,381 | 94,193 | 7.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 28.5% | 38.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.4 | 21.8 | 7.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,614 | 2,408 | 8.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 73.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 73.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 5.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 24.3% | 53.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JNJ Return | 11% | 6% | -9% | -5% | 47% | 17% | 78% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 15% | 6% | 9% | 22% | -0% | 111% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 77% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JNJ Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 83% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 48% | 55% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JNJ Max Drawdown | -2% | -7% | -16% | -7% | -2% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -15% | -19% | -5% | -13% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PFE, MRK, LLY, ABBV, MDT. See JNJ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JNJ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 705 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 597 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,319 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PFE, MRK, LLY, ABBV, MDT
In The Past
Johnson & Johnson's stock fell -21.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/25/2022. A -21.7% loss requires a 27.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Johnson & Johnson:
The Amazon of healthcare.
Procter & Gamble meets Pfizer meets Medtronic.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Consumer Health Products: Includes popular over-the-counter brands for baby care, oral hygiene, skin health, pain relief, cold/allergy treatment, smoking cessation, acid reflux, feminine hygiene, and first aid.
- Pharmaceutical Medications: Prescription drugs addressing a broad spectrum of conditions such as immunology, infectious diseases (HIV/AIDS, COVID-19), neurological disorders, various cancers, cardiovascular issues, and pulmonary hypertension.
- Medical Technology Products: Advanced devices and solutions for areas including electrophysiology, neurovascular care, orthopaedic surgery, general surgery, and ophthalmic health like contact lenses and cataract surgery products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) primarily sells to other companies (B2B) across its three segments: Consumer Health, Pharmaceutical, and MedTech. While its products ultimately reach the general public and patients, JNJ's major direct customers are primarily the following categories of businesses:
- Retail Outlets and Retailers: These encompass pharmacies, supermarkets, and general merchandise stores that purchase and stock JNJ's Consumer Health products (such as TYLENOL, BAND-AID, NEUTROGENA, and LISTERINE) and certain MedTech products (like ACUVUE contact lenses) for sale to the general public.
- Wholesalers and Distributors: These companies facilitate the large-scale distribution of JNJ's Consumer Health, Pharmaceutical, and MedTech products to various points of sale, pharmacies, and healthcare providers.
- Hospitals and Healthcare Professionals: These entities directly procure JNJ's Pharmaceutical products (e.g., prescription medications for various conditions) and MedTech devices and solutions (e.g., orthopaedics products, electrophysiology products, advanced surgery solutions) for use in patient treatment and care within their facilities or practices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlJoaquin Duato, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Joaquin Duato joined Johnson & Johnson in 1989 at Janssen Pharmaceuticals in Spain. He served as Vice Chairman of the Executive Committee, leading the company's pharmaceutical and consumer health businesses, and overseeing supply-chain and technology operations before being appointed CEO in January 2022 and Chairman in January 2023. Mr. Duato oversaw the separation of Johnson & Johnson's consumer health segment, now an independent publicly traded company known as Kenvue. He holds a Master of Business Administration from ESADE Business School in Barcelona, Spain, and a Master of International Management from Thunderbird School of Global Management in Phoenix, Arizona. His family background, including a mother who was a nurse, a grandfather who was a pediatrician, and a grandmother who was a pharmacist, influenced his career in healthcare. He has served on the boards of the United States-Spain Council, UNICEF USA, Tsinghua University School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, and Hess Corporation. Mr. Duato was also the Chairman of Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) from 2017 to 2018.
Joseph J. Wolk, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Joseph J. Wolk joined Johnson & Johnson in 1998 and has served as the Chief Financial Officer since 2018. Throughout his tenure, he has held various senior financial roles, including Vice President of Investor Relations, Vice President of Finance for J&J Innovative Medicine, Vice President of Finance for J&J MedTech's Global Supply Chain, and Chief Financial Officer of the North America Innovative Medicine Group. Mr. Wolk played a key role in leading the separation of Johnson & Johnson's consumer health business. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from St. Joseph's University and a Juris Doctor degree from Temple University School of Law, and is also a Certified Public Accountant (CPA). Mr. Wolk also serves as an independent director on the Board of Directors for Prudential Financial, Inc. Notably, his father, uncle, and aunt also worked at Johnson & Johnson, making it a family business for him.
Jennifer L. Taubert, Executive Vice President, Worldwide Chairman, Innovative Medicine
Jennifer L. Taubert joined Johnson & Johnson in 2005. Prior to joining J&J, she spent 18 years in positions of increasing scope and responsibility at Merck and Allergan. At Johnson & Johnson, she led global commercial strategy for the pharmaceuticals business and, as President, Internal Medicine, built a new franchise in cardiovascular and metabolic disease. Under her leadership as Company Group Chairman, The Americas, the pharmaceuticals business doubled in size, becoming the number one pharmaceutical company in the United States and Canada. Ms. Taubert is a member of the Corporation's Executive Committee and leads the Innovative Medicine Group Operating Committee. She has also served as a member of the Board of Directors of McDonald's Corporation since 2022. She earned a Bachelor's degree in Pharmacology from the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a Master of Business Administration from the Anderson Graduate School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Tim Schmid, Executive Vice President, Worldwide Chairman, MedTech
Tim Schmid serves as the Executive Vice President and Worldwide Chairman of MedTech at Johnson & Johnson. He leads the company's MedTech organization, which has over 75,000 employees and generates approximately $30 billion in revenue, focusing on developing and delivering innovative medical technologies.
Vanessa Broadhurst, Executive Vice President, Global Corporate Affairs
Vanessa Broadhurst is the Executive Vice President of Global Corporate Affairs and a member of Johnson & Johnson's executive committee. She is responsible for leading strategies across Corporate Marketing, Global Communications, Global Health Equity, and Worldwide Government Affairs & Policy for the company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance.The most significant risk stems from **extensive litigation and legal liabilities**, particularly related to lawsuits concerning its talc-based products. The company has faced numerous lawsuits alleging that its talc products caused ovarian cancer, leading to substantial financial settlements and ongoing legal battles. This includes a reported $6.5 billion settlement plan to resolve nearly all U.S. lawsuits related to talc-based ovarian cancer claims, though new class-action lawsuits continue to emerge. The legal and regulatory risk exposure for Johnson & Johnson is significantly higher than the industry average.
Another prominent risk is **patent expirations and increasing competition from generics and biosimilars**. The pharmaceutical segment, a key driver for Johnson & Johnson, is heavily reliant on patent protection for its products. The loss of patent exclusivity, exemplified by drugs like STELARA, often leads to a substantial reduction in sales as competitors introduce generic or biosimilar versions. This "patent cliff" poses a continuous challenge to the company's profitability and market share.
Finally, **regulatory challenges and scrutiny** represent a significant ongoing risk. The healthcare industry in which Johnson & Johnson operates is subject to extensive and evolving regulations worldwide. Changes in laws, policies, or increased scrutiny can impose significant compliance costs, expose the company to government investigations, and result in legal actions and penalties. Past instances have highlighted regulatory shortfalls and corporate influence over regulatory bodies, underscoring the potential for regulatory issues to impact consumer safety and public trust.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) operates across various healthcare segments, with the following addressable market sizes for its main products or services:
-
Consumer Health:
- Oral Care Products (e.g., LISTERINE): The global oral care market size was estimated at USD 39.94 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 66.37 billion by 2033.
- OTC Pain Relief Products (e.g., TYLENOL, MOTRIN IB): The global over-the-counter (OTC) analgesics market size is calculated at USD 31.89 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 45.77 billion by 2035.
- Feminine Hygiene Products (e.g., STAYFREE, CAREFREE, o.b.): The global feminine hygiene products market size was accounted at USD 48.96 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 101.80 billion by 2035.
- Wound Care/First Aid Products (e.g., BAND-AID, NEOSPORIN): The global wound care market size was estimated at USD 24.77 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 35.56 billion by 2032.
- Baby Care Products: null
- Skin Health/Beauty Products: null
- Smoking Cessation Products: null
- Acid Reflux Products: null
-
Pharmaceutical:
- Rheumatoid Arthritis Therapeutics: The global rheumatoid arthritis therapeutics market size was valued at USD 35.35 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 46.66 billion by 2034.
- Psoriasis Therapeutics: The global psoriasis treatment market size was valued at USD 29.15 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 72.99 billion by 2034.
- Prostate Cancer Therapeutics: The global prostate cancer therapeutics market size was valued at USD 25.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 106.86 billion by 2034.
- Diabetes Therapeutics: The global diabetes drugs market size was valued at USD 101.48 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 283.36 billion by 2034.
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Therapeutics: null
- HIV/AIDS Infectious Disease Therapeutics: null
- COVID-19 Infectious Disease Therapeutics: null
- Mood Disorders Therapeutics: null
- Neurodegenerative Disorders Therapeutics: null
- Schizophrenia Therapeutics: null
- Hematologic Malignancies Therapeutics: null
- Lung Cancer Therapeutics: null
- Bladder Cancer Therapeutics: null
- Thrombosis Therapeutics: null
- Macular Degeneration Therapeutics: null
- Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Therapeutics: null
-
MedTech:
- Electrophysiology Products: The global electrophysiology devices market size accounted for USD 14.55 billion in 2025 and is predicted to reach around USD 55.43 billion by 2035.
- Disposable Contact Lenses (e.g., ACUVUE): The global contact lenses market size was valued at USD 11.75 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 20.97 billion by 2034.
- Neurovascular Care Products: null
- Orthopaedics Products (Hips, Knees, Trauma, Spine, Sports): null
- Advanced and General Surgery Solutions (Breast Aesthetics, ENT): null
- Ophthalmic Products (Cataract and Laser Refractive Surgery): null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Innovative Medicine Portfolio and Pipeline Expansion: The company's Innovative Medicine segment is a primary growth engine, particularly in oncology and immunology. Key products like DARZALEX (multiple myeloma) and TREMFYA (Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, psoriasis) are expected to continue their strong growth trajectory through new indications and market share gains. Johnson & Johnson anticipates more than 25 assets with significant peak year sales potential by 2030, reinforcing its focus on high-growth therapeutic areas such as oncology, immunology, and neuroscience.
- MedTech Segment Innovation and Market Expansion: The MedTech segment is poised for accelerated growth, driven by continued innovation and expansion into high-growth markets. This includes advancements in interventional cardiovascular products, robotic and digital surgery solutions (such as the OTTAVA robotic surgical system), and ophthalmic products, including new contact lens innovations and surgical vision technologies like TECNIS PureSee. The company expects a substantial portion of its MedTech sales to come from new products.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Robust R&D Investment: Johnson & Johnson consistently invests significantly in research and development, alongside strategic acquisitions, to enhance its product pipeline and portfolio. Recent acquisitions like Intra-Cellular Therapies and Halda Therapeutics are contributing to innovation and growth within the Innovative Medicine segment. These ongoing investments are critical for developing and launching new therapies and technologies across both its core business segments.
- Market Share Gains and New Product Launches: The company is focused on securing market share gains for its established and recently launched products, alongside the introduction of new therapies and medical devices. Examples include the strong performance of CARVYKTI in multiple myeloma, SPRAVATO and CAPLYTA in neuroscience, and new launches like RYBREVANT plus LAZCLUZE in lung cancer. This consistent pipeline of new approvals and expanded indications is expected to drive sustained revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025)
Share Repurchases
- Johnson & Johnson authorized a share repurchase program of up to $5 billion in September 2022.
- The company executed significant share repurchases, with annual buybacks totaling $11.089 billion in 2023 and $5.953 billion in 2025.
- Annual share buybacks were $2.432 billion in 2024.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, Johnson & Johnson acquired Abiomed for $16.6 billion to expand its MedTech portfolio, particularly in cardiovascular care.
- In 2023, the company completed the spin-off of its Consumer Health division, Kenvue, which was valued at $47 billion at its IPO and generated $13.2 billion in cash proceeds for Johnson & Johnson.
- Johnson & Johnson made two significant acquisitions in 2024, acquiring Ambrx Biopharma for approximately $2 billion to bolster its oncology pipeline and Shockwave Medical for $13.1 billion to enhance its cardiovascular intervention leadership.
Capital Expenditures
- Johnson & Johnson's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending January 2022 to 2025 averaged $3.797 billion, with expenditures peaking at $4.243 billion in December 2024. The annual capital expenditures for FY2025 were $4.8 billion.
- The company announced plans in March 2025 to invest more than $55 billion in the United States over the next four years, representing a 25% increase from the prior four-year period.
- This $55 billion investment is focused on manufacturing, research and development (R&D), and technology, including the construction of four new advanced manufacturing facilities, such as a $2 billion+ biologics manufacturing facility in North Carolina, supporting its Innovative Medicine and MedTech businesses.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to JNJ.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
| 04302024 | JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 12.5% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 168.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 339.1 |
| Rev LTM | 63,795 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21,100 |
| FCF LTM | 10,718 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,550 |
| CFO LTM | 16,642 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,016 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 339.1 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 17.7 |
| P/E | 23.2 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 42.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -24.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $243.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 585.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $230.95 | $191.00 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.3% | 27.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 16.2% | 19.1% |
| Downside Capture | -48.23 | -17.70 |
| Upside Capture | 27.26 | 29.92 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -12.8% | 7.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.45 | -0.35 | -0.25 | -0.14 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Up Beta | 0.32 | -0.39 | -0.18 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Down Beta | -0.90 | -0.24 | -0.44 | -0.23 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| Up Capture | 9% | 41% | 41% | 31% | 18% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 34 | 72 | 145 | 407 |
| Down Capture | -130% | -139% | -92% | -92% | -33% | -25% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 15 | 27 | 52 | 106 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JNJ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 53.6% | 19.0% | 2.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.4% | 17.5% | 0.20 | 54.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.5% | 18.9% | 0.94 | 7.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 68.7% | 26.2% | 1.98 | 12.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.7% | 17.3% | 0.91 | -2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.3% | 16.2% | 0.37 | 31.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -9.2% | 44.2% | -0.09 | -5.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JNJ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 12.2% | 16.6% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.5% | 14.5% | 0.33 | 58.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 20.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | -2.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 33.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.1% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 1.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JNJ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 11.6% | 18.3% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.1% | 16.5% | 0.50 | 68.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 44.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.76 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 42.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 5.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/21/2026 | -0.1% | 2.9% | 13.8% |
| 10/14/2025 | -0.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 7/16/2025 | 6.2% | 8.2% | 12.4% |
| 4/15/2025 | -0.5% | 2.2% | -5.2% |
| 1/22/2025 | -1.9% | 1.5% | 8.6% |
| 10/15/2024 | 1.5% | 0.8% | -5.5% |
| 7/17/2024 | 3.7% | 0.9% | 4.9% |
| 4/16/2024 | -2.1% | 1.0% | 2.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 17 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -2.0% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 8.8% | 13.8% |
| Max Negative | -2.8% | -5.0% | -6.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morikis, John G | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 206.15 | 1,250 | 257,688 | 381,070 | Form | |
| 2 | Reed, John C | EVP, Innovative Medicine, R&D | Direct | Sell | 10202025 | 192.71 | 21,721 | 4,185,793 | 2,053,873 | Form |
| 3 | Taubert, Jennifer L | EVP, WWC. Innovative Medicine | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 177.81 | 56,471 | 10,040,883 | 31,651,780 | Form |
| 4 | Duato, Joaquin | CEO and Chairman of the Board | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 179.21 | 125,824 | 22,548,655 | 49,455,467 | Form |
| 5 | Wolk, Joseph J | Exec VP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 176.91 | 16,820 | 2,975,571 | 2,476,694 | Form |
JNJ Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.59x places the stock in the 'Buyable' tier. The investment thesis is supported by strong, accelerating operational momentum in its core growth division which outweighs the known patent cliff. While the talc litigation risk is significant and caps the upside, the 60% probability assigned to the bull case (driven by a strong sector trend) creates a favorable, albeit not high-conviction, risk-reward profile.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowJohnson & Johnson is a large, established company with strong free cash flow, a consistent dividend, and best-in-class margins. Its growth is steady but moderate (guiding to 5-7% CAGR), and the primary challenge is defending its existing revenue base against patent cliffs, fitting the 'Mature Cash Cow' focus on capital efficiency and pricing power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on the accelerating, volume-led growth of the high-margin Innovative Medicine portfolio (led by Darzalex, Carvykti, Tremfya) being potent enough to absorb the significant revenue headwind from the Stelara biosimilar erosion and still drive overall corporate growth and margin stability.
- Innovative Medicine operational sales growth accelerated to 7.9% in Q4 2025, successfully offsetting an 1,110 basis point negative impact from Stelara.
- Company guidance for FY2026 is $100.0B - $101.0B, representing 6.2% - 7.2% YoY growth, an acceleration from the FY2025 growth rate.
- Key growth drivers are posting strong results: Darzalex sales grew ~20% YoY, Carvykti sales nearly doubled, and Tremfya grew ~17% YoY in 2024.
- Management has identified 10+ potential assets in the pipeline with >$5B peak sales potential to sustain long-term growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction on the stock is the unquantified and potentially massive financial liability from over 67,000 talc-related lawsuits. Multiple failed attempts to resolve this via bankruptcy push the company into costly and unpredictable jury trials, creating a significant sentiment overhang and the risk of a material impact to cash flow that is not fully provisioned for.
- J&J's third attempt to resolve the litigation via a subsidiary's bankruptcy was dismissed in March 2025, forcing a return to individual jury trials.
- The current MDL docket contains over 67,000 plaintiffs, representing a massive potential liability.
- The historical precedent of Bayer/Monsanto's Roundup litigation demonstrates how unresolved mass tort cases can depress shareholder value for a decade.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Innovative Medicine Operational Sales Growth (YoY) | Consistently > 7.5% | This is the core metric for the Alpha Driver. Growth above this level confirms the new portfolio is successfully overpowering the Stelara headwind and that the growth story is accelerating. |
| Stelara Sales (YoY % Decline) | Decline not to exceed -60% | While a steep decline is expected, an erosion rate significantly worse than the ~50% seen in late 2025 would indicate steeper-than-modeled competition and could put full-year guidance at risk. |
| Talc Litigation Newsflow / Reserve Changes | Any single verdict >$1B or total settlement fund proposal >$15B | This monitors the primary Anti-Alpha risk. A major adverse event would signal that the current financial reserves are inadequate and could trigger a material de-rating of the stock. |
The Great Rebasing: Can the New Portfolio Outrun the Stelara Patent Cliff?
BULL VIEW
Strong growth in Darzalex, Carvykti, and Tremfya, plus a deep pipeline, will overwhelm the Stelara headwind, leading to re-accelerated growth and a higher multiple in 2026.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating growth from the innovative pipeline (Oncology, MedTech) fully offset the material revenue erosion from Stelara's loss of exclusivity and absorb major litigation/regulatory risks?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Innovative Medicine operational growth of 7.9% in Q4 2025 accelerated despite an 1,110 basis point negative impact from Stelara, showing the new portfolio's strength is winning on an operational level.
BEAR VIEW
The ~50% decline in the ~$10B Stelara franchise, combined with unquantified talc liability and IRA margin pressure, creates an insurmountable drag on growth and sentiment.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Stelara worldwide sales decline rate (versus ~50% in Q4). |
May-June 2026 | ASCO/EHA Medical Conferences Watch: Pivotal data readouts for key pipeline assets, particularly the oral psoriasis drug icotrokinra. |
Anytime | Bellwether Talc Trial Verdict Watch: Size of jury verdict in a major talc trial. |
This Quarter (Feb-Apr 2026) | Peer MedTech Earnings (HCA, ISRG) Watch: Hospital capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for 2026. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Sep 3, 2025 | Company Announces Q3 Earnings Call Date Details: JNJ scheduled its Q3 2025 earnings call for October 14, setting the timeline for the next major financial data release for investors. | Muted (0.4%) $176.87 -> $177.63 |
Oct 28, 2025 | Reaches 6-Month Low Details: Amid broader market concerns and the ongoing patent cliff narrative for Stelara, the stock hit its lowest point in the six-month period prior to analysis. | Slight -1.8% pullback $189.09 -> $185.75 |
Oct 14, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: JNJ reported solid Q3 results with 6.8% sales growth and raised its full-year 2025 sales outlook, demonstrating strong business momentum heading into year-end. | Flat (0.2%) $189.64 -> $189.96 |
Nov 17, 2025 | Acquisition of Halda Therapeutics Details: JNJ announced the acquisition of Halda Therapeutics to enhance its oncology pipeline, specifically targeting prostate cancer with a novel oral therapy platform. | Changed Little (0.8%) $198.32 -> $200.00 |
Dec 16, 2025 | FDA Proactively Awards Priority Review Voucher Details: The FDA awarded JNJ a 'national priority' review voucher for its Tecvayli and Darzalex combination therapy in multiple myeloma, signaling strong regulatory confidence in the asset. | Muted (0.5%) $209.30 -> $210.33 |
Jan 21, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Guidance Details: Reported strong 7.1% revenue growth and provided 2026 guidance above consensus, but stock was flat as the in-line adjusted EPS suggests high expectations were already priced in. | Flat (0.2%) $218.01 -> $218.49 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock trades in a Stable Volatility regime. The Neutral sentiment reflects a deadlock between strong new product growth and material patent cliff/litigation headwinds. This balance of quality and risk warrants a standard allocation, not an aggressive one.
Diversification Alternatives
INVA
INDUSTRYSimpler model focused on royalty streams and a specialty commercial platform avoids JNJ's massive R&D execution risk, offering a cleaner thesis.
RMD
SECTORA pure-play leader in the sleep/respiratory market, RMD is completely insulated from the pharmaceutical patent cliffs and IRA pricing risks that are central to the JNJ bear case.
Trading at a forward P/E of ~21.3x, Johnson & Johnson is being valued as a stable healthcare giant successfully managing a major patent cliff (Stelara, ~$10.4B in 2024 to $6.1B in 2025) by accelerating a new portfolio of blockbusters (Darzalex, $14.4B; Tremfya, $5.2B) to transition its growth engine.
Filter all news through the lens of the post-Stelara growth transition: does this news accelerate the new portfolio's ability to exceed the revenue lost from the patent cliff?
Quarterly revenue from Darzalex, Tremfya, Carvykti, and Spravato showing aggregate YoY growth >$1.5B; Positive clinical trial data for pipeline assets in late-stage oncology or immunology; MedTech segment operational growth accelerating above 6%; Meaningful positive updates or resolution on talc litigation.
Slowing growth in key products Darzalex or Tremfya; Clinical trial failures for key late-stage pipeline assets; Widespread pricing pressure on the immunology or oncology portfolios due to policy changes; Larger-than-expected financial impact from talc litigation settlements.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in MedTech procedure volumes; Competitor drug approvals that don't directly compete with J&J's core growth assets; Early-stage pipeline announcements (Phase 1); General market commentary on the pharmaceutical sector without specific J&J impact.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's repricing depends on the successful revenue replacement of Stelara ($6.1B in 2025, down from $10.4B in 2024). The key catalyst is the continued >20% growth of oncology drug Darzalex ($14.4B in 2025) and >40% growth of immunology drug Tremfya ($5.2B in 2025), which together must add over $4B in new revenue annually to offset the decline and drive net growth.
Innovative Medicine (Pharmaceuticals)
$60.4B TTM (64.1% of Total) · 36.9% MarginWhat It Is
Blockbuster drugs including Darzalex (multiple myeloma), Stelara & Tremfya (immunology), Erleada (prostate cancer), and Carvykti (cell therapy).
Who Pays & How
Governments and private health insurers pay for clinically differentiated, patent-protected drugs that are the standard of care. For example, Darzalex ($14.35B in 2025 sales) is a cornerstone of multiple myeloma treatment protocols.
Competition
MedTech (Medical Devices)
$33.8B TTM (35.9% of Total) · 12.2% MarginWhat It Is
Surgical instruments (Ethicon), orthopaedic implants for hips and knees (DePuy Synthes), vision products including contact lenses (Acuvue), and cardiovascular devices (Abiomed, Biosense Webster).
Who Pays & How
Hospitals and surgical centers pay for devices that improve patient outcomes, reduce procedure times, and are trusted by surgeons. Brand loyalty and surgeon training create sticky relationships.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.