Intuit (INTU)
Market Price (3/1/2026): $409.88 | Market Cap: $114.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Intuit (INTU)
Market Price (3/1/2026): $409.88Market Cap: $114.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 6.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.4 Bil | Key risksINTU key risks include [1] significant regulatory scrutiny over its business practices, Show more. | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 6.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.4 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Key risksINTU key risks include [1] significant regulatory scrutiny over its business practices, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Decelerating Growth Outlook for Fiscal Q3 2026.
Intuit's stock declined significantly following a projected slowdown in its growth. The company's guidance for fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth indicated a deceleration to approximately 10%, a notable drop from the 17% growth reported in fiscal Q2 2026.
2. Persistent Underperformance of Mailchimp.
The Mailchimp segment continued to negatively impact Intuit's overall business solutions. Excluding Mailchimp, the Global Business Solutions revenue grew by 21% in fiscal Q2 2026, while the segment's overall growth was 18%, highlighting Mailchimp's drag on performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.4% change in INTU stock from 11/30/2025 to 2/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 2282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 632.91 | 409.03 | -35.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,433 | 19,433 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.9 | 27.7 | -35.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 279 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 2/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | -35.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | 35.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | -3.0% | 31.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -38.5% change in INTU stock from 8/31/2025 to 2/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 2282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 664.56 | 409.03 | -38.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,184 | 19,433 | 6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.1% | 21.2% | 11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 53.7 | 27.7 | -48.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 280 | 279 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -38.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 2/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | -38.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | 33.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.9% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.9% change in INTU stock from 2/28/2025 to 2/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 2282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 609.70 | 409.03 | -32.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,167 | 19,433 | 13.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.7% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.2 | 27.7 | -50.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 280 | 279 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 2/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | -32.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 51.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.6% | 50.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.4% change in INTU stock from 2/28/2023 to 2/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 49.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 2282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 399.26 | 409.03 | 2.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,684 | 19,433 | 42.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 21.2% | 49.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 57.7 | 27.7 | -51.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 281 | 279 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 2/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | 2.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.6% | 54.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 107.4% | 52.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTU Return | 70% | -39% | 62% | 1% | 6% | -40% | 7% |
| Peers Return | 47% | 5% | 31% | 25% | -2% | -21% | 96% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTU Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 43% | 60% | 57% | 43% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTU Max Drawdown | -5% | -45% | -3% | -10% | -13% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -23% | -8% | -3% | -19% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, ADP, HRB, TRI. See INTU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 908 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 445 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, ORCL, ADP, HRB, TRI
In The Past
Intuit's stock fell -49.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -49.1% loss requires a 96.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Intuit (INTU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Intuit:
- H&R Block for DIY tax software: Intuit, primarily through TurboTax, is the leading software platform for individuals to prepare their own taxes, much like H&R Block is known for its tax preparation services.
- Salesforce for small business accounting: Similar to how Salesforce is the dominant cloud platform for customer relationship management, Intuit's QuickBooks is the essential accounting and financial management software for millions of small businesses.
- Microsoft for personal and small business financial software: Just as Microsoft provides foundational software for computing and productivity, Intuit offers the foundational software for managing personal finances, taxes, and small business accounting.
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- TurboTax: A suite of software products designed to help individuals and small businesses prepare and file their income taxes.
- QuickBooks: Comprehensive accounting software and services primarily used by small businesses and self-employed individuals for managing finances, payroll, and invoicing.
- Credit Karma: A free personal finance platform that provides credit scores, credit reports, and recommendations for financial products like credit cards and loans.
- Mailchimp: An all-in-one marketing platform that provides email marketing services, audience management tools, and other marketing automation solutions for small businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intuit (symbol: INTU) serves a diverse customer base, encompassing both individuals and businesses. Due to the vast number of small businesses and self-employed individuals it serves, Intuit's customer base is best described by categories rather than listing specific company names. Therefore, we will describe the categories of customers Intuit serves.
Intuit primarily serves the following three categories of customers:
-
Individuals and Households: This category includes consumers who use Intuit's products for personal finance management and tax preparation. Key offerings for this segment include:
- TurboTax: For individuals to prepare and file their federal and state income taxes.
- Credit Karma: For consumers to monitor their credit scores, review financial products (like loans and credit cards), and manage their personal finances.
-
Small Businesses and Self-Employed Individuals: This is a very significant and broad customer category for Intuit, covering entrepreneurs, freelancers, sole proprietors, and small to medium-sized businesses across various industries. They utilize Intuit's solutions for managing their operations and finances. Key offerings include:
- QuickBooks: A comprehensive suite of products for accounting, payroll, payments, invoicing, and inventory management. This includes QuickBooks Online, QuickBooks Desktop, QuickBooks Self-Employed, and QuickBooks Payroll.
- Mailchimp: For email marketing, customer relationship management (CRM), and marketing automation, primarily catering to small businesses seeking to connect with their customers.
-
Accounting Professionals and Tax Preparers: This category consists of accounting firms and independent tax professionals who use Intuit's specialized software to serve their own clients (who are often individuals or small businesses). Key offerings include:
- ProConnect Tax: Professional tax preparation software for accountants.
- QuickBooks Accountant: Tools and features within the QuickBooks ecosystem designed specifically for accountants to manage multiple client accounts.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (Symbol: AMZN)
- Equifax Inc. (Symbol: EFX)
- TransUnion (Symbol: TRU)
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Sasan Goodarzi, Chief Executive Officer
Sasan Goodarzi has served as Intuit's CEO since January 2019, leading the company in its mission to power prosperity globally. He joined Intuit in 2004 and has successfully led its largest businesses, including the consumer group and global business solutions group. Before his tenure at Intuit, Goodarzi was the global president of the products group at Invensys and held various senior leadership roles within the automation control division at Honeywell. He also co-founded and served as CEO of a technology startup, Lazer Cables Inc. Goodarzi is currently a board member of Atlassian.
Sandeep Aujla, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Sandeep Aujla is Intuit's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, overseeing the company's financial strategy and operations. He joined Intuit in 2015. Prior to Intuit, Aujla held significant positions at Visa Inc., including Vice President of Finance for Visa Global Merchant Solutions and CyberSource Corp., and Vice President of Global Strategy, Acquisitions, and Investments.
Alex Balazs, Executive Vice President & Chief Technology Officer
Alex Balazs leads Intuit's global technology organization, encompassing engineering, architecture, security, and infrastructure. With over 20 years at Intuit, Balazs began his career with the company in 1999 as a software engineer and rose through the ranks, including roles as Chief Architect and Senior Vice President. He has been instrumental in enhancing Intuit's data engineering capabilities and leading the platform engineering team.
Mark Notarainni, Executive Vice President & General Manager, Consumer Group
Mark Notarainni oversees Intuit's Consumer Group, which includes products such as TurboTax and Credit Karma. His leadership focuses on helping individuals manage personal finance. Previously, Notarainni held key roles in customer experience and product operations.
Anton Hanebrink, Executive Vice President and Chief Corporate Strategy & Development Officer
Anton Hanebrink focuses on driving Intuit's strategic initiatives and growth opportunities, with expertise in corporate development, strategy, and investment banking. Before joining Intuit, he held significant roles at Square, Opus Capital, and Hewlett-Packard. His past achievements include leading corporate development at Square and contributing to strategic projects at The Boston Consulting Group.
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The key risks to Intuit's business (NASDAQ: INTU) are primarily centered around regulatory scrutiny, cybersecurity threats, and intense market competition.
- Regulatory and Government Scrutiny/Competition: Intuit faces significant regulatory challenges due to its operations in critical government-related areas like accounting and tax. The company has faced lawsuits and is not always viewed favorably by government officials, leading to concerns about monopolistic practices. A notable instance includes the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) finding Intuit engaged in deceptive advertising for "free" tax products. There is also the ongoing risk of federal and state taxing authorities developing their own free tax filing software, which could directly impact Intuit's consumer tax business. Changes in tax laws or government policies could also significantly affect Intuit's business model.
- Cybersecurity Risks and Data Breaches: Handling sensitive financial data makes Intuit a prime target for cyber threats. The company faces ongoing cybersecurity risks, including data privacy concerns and fraudulent activities, which necessitate continuous investment in security measures to protect its reputation and customer trust. Reports indicate recent data breaches where sensitive personal identifiable information, such as Social Security numbers and financial data, may have been accessed through TurboTax accounts due to unauthorized logins. Phishing campaigns impersonating Intuit are also a consistent threat, particularly during tax season.
- Competition and Technological Disruption: Intuit operates in a highly competitive environment, facing rivals that offer free or low-cost tax, accounting, payments, and consumer finance solutions. The rapid pace of technological change, particularly with the integration of artificial intelligence (AI), presents both opportunities and challenges. While Intuit invests heavily in AI, there's a risk that failure to continuously innovate and keep pace with emerging trends or the deployment of AI by competitors could reduce customer demand for its products and services.
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IRS Direct File Program
The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has launched and is piloting its "Direct File" program, a free, government-run tax filing system. While currently limited in scope, its expansion poses a direct, existential threat to Intuit's highly profitable TurboTax business by offering a free alternative directly from the tax authority. Should the program be expanded to more states and support more complex tax scenarios, it could significantly erode TurboTax's market share and revenue stream.
Advanced Generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs)
The rapid advancement and widespread adoption of generative AI, particularly large language models, present a clear emerging threat across Intuit's product portfolio. These AI models are increasingly capable of performing complex tasks that traditionally required specialized software:
- For TurboTax: LLMs could automate tax preparation by accurately interpreting financial documents, providing personalized tax advice, answering complex questions, and potentially even filing returns with minimal human intervention, making traditional guided tax software less essential.
- For QuickBooks: LLMs have the potential to automate much of small business accounting, including transaction categorization, reconciliation, financial analysis, forecasting, and even integrated business advice, reducing the need for manual data entry and complex software navigation.
- For Mailchimp: Generative AI can automate the creation of marketing content, conduct sophisticated audience segmentation, and personalize campaigns at scale, potentially making traditional email marketing and CRM platforms less differentiated or requiring significant shifts in their core offerings.
This emerging technology threatens to disintermediate Intuit's role by offering more autonomous, intelligent, and potentially lower-cost solutions for financial management, tax preparation, and marketing, either through standalone AI services or integration into broader platforms.
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Intuit (INTU) Addressable Market Sizes:
- TurboTax: The addressable market for TurboTax primarily spans the United States and Canada. In the U.S. tax software market, TurboTax maintains a dominant position, holding a 60% market share as of April 2025. The broader tax preparation market is evenly split between "do-it-for-me" and "do-it-yourself" models in terms of user volume.
- QuickBooks: QuickBooks serves a global market of small and medium-sized businesses. As of 2025, over 7 million companies worldwide utilize QuickBooks for accounting and financial management. Of these, more than 4.9 million are U.S.-based businesses, accounting for nearly 70% of its global user base. In the SMB accounting software sector, QuickBooks holds a commanding market share exceeding 62%. The total addressable market for QuickBooks Online in the United States is estimated to be between 5 and 28 million businesses, with a closer approximation of 11.5 million employer firms having 1-20 employees. Globally, this market could extend to as many as 125 million businesses. QuickBooks is particularly dominant in the North American market, encompassing the US and Canada.
- Credit Karma: Credit Karma operates in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. While a specific total addressable market monetary value is not readily available, Credit Karma has a substantial user base, with millions of users worldwide as of October 2024. By the end of 2015, Credit Karma reported over 45 million users. The platform is widely recognized for its free credit and financial management services.
- Mailchimp: Mailchimp’s addressable market is global. The email marketing industry, where Mailchimp is a key player, is projected to reach nearly $18 billion by the end of 2027. Mailchimp has a significant global user base, with over 13 million users worldwide, and more recent data indicates 14 million users. It also commands a substantial market share in the email marketing sector, estimated at approximately 62.23%. In 2020, Mailchimp generated $800 million in revenue.
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Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives and market opportunities:
-
AI-Driven Innovation and Platform Strategy: Intuit is making significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) to transform into an AI-driven expert platform, aiming to provide "done-for-you experiences" for its customers. This includes the deployment of AI agents and AI-enabled human experts across products like QuickBooks and TurboTax, which is anticipated to boost customer engagement, improve retention, and create new monetization opportunities through increased service usage and improved conversion.
-
Expansion in the Mid-Market Segment: The company is actively targeting and growing its presence in the mid-market segment with solutions such as the Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES) and QuickBooks Online Advanced (QBOA). This segment represents a substantial growth opportunity, with Intuit focusing on offering integrated business solutions to mid-market businesses that currently use fragmented systems.
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Growth of TurboTax Live and Assisted Tax Services: TurboTax Live, which combines DIY tax software with on-demand access to human tax experts, is a key driver within the Consumer Group. Intuit expects continued strong adoption and growth in TurboTax Live revenue, aiming to accelerate assisted tax services and attract more complex, higher-income DIY customers.
-
Global Expansion: Intuit is pursuing international growth by replicating its successful U.S. business model in new markets, particularly in Canada, the U.K., and Australia. This strategy involves an initial focus on core accounting software, followed by the layering of additional services like tax, payroll, and marketing.
-
Increased Adoption of Services within the Online Ecosystem: A core part of Intuit's strategy is to increase revenue per customer by driving greater adoption of its existing services and offerings within its online ecosystem. This includes accelerating the usage of payments, payroll, and the deeper integration of Mailchimp with the QuickBooks platform.
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1. Share Repurchases
- Intuit repurchased $2.8 billion of stock during fiscal year 2025.
- The Board of Directors approved a new $3.2 billion repurchase authorization in August 2025, increasing the total authorization to $5.3 billion.
- In fiscal years 2023 and 2024, Intuit repurchased approximately $2.0 billion in stock each year.
2. Share Issuance
- Intuit's stock-based compensation, a form of share issuance to employees, was approximately $1.968 billion in fiscal year 2025.
- Stock-based compensation amounted to $1.94 billion in fiscal year 2024 and $1.712 billion in fiscal year 2023.
4. Outbound Investments
- In September 2021, Intuit acquired Mailchimp for $12 billion to enhance its marketing automation platform and diversify revenue streams.
- In February 2020, Intuit acquired Credit Karma for approximately $7.1 billion, expanding its presence in consumer credit and financial wellness.
- Recent acquisitions in 2025 include Relevvo (June 2025) and GoCo (April 2025), to further expand HR and marketing functionalities within its QuickBooks and Enterprise Suite offerings.
5. Capital Expenditures
- Intuit's capital expenditures were $84 million for the latest twelve months ending July 31, 2025.
- Capital expenditures peaked at $210 million in fiscal year 2023.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures supports ongoing investments in technology, AI-driven features, and platform innovation to enhance products like QuickBooks and improve customer experiences.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How to Get Paid to Buy INTU at a Steep Discount | 02/28/2026 | |
| How Intuit Stock Slipped -40% | 02/28/2026 | |
| Where Does Intuit Stock Rank Among Competitors? | 02/26/2026 | |
| Can Intuit Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | 02/26/2026 | |
| Better Bet Than Intuit Stock: PTC, YOU Deliver More | 02/20/2026 | |
| Is PTC a Better Buy Than Intuit? | 02/20/2026 | |
| Intuit Stock Pullback: A Chance to Ride the Uptrend | 02/07/2026 | |
| How Intuit Stock Slipped -30% | 02/04/2026 | |
| INTU Stock Falls -23% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Analyst Downgrades | 02/04/2026 | |
| INTU Stock Falls -14% On 6-Day Spree From KeyCorp Target Cut To $750 | 02/03/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| How To Earn 14% Yield While Waiting to Buy INTU 30% Cheaper | 02/28/2026 | |
| Intuit Stock Dropped -40%, Here’s Why | 02/28/2026 | |
| How Does Intuit Stock Compare With Peers? | 02/26/2026 | |
| With Intuit Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 02/26/2026 | |
| Stronger Bet Than Intuit Stock: PTC Delivers More | 02/20/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to INTU.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.3% | -7.3% | -15.0% |
| 01302026 | TDC | Teradata | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.6% | 6.6% | -8.7% |
| 01302026 | CVLT | CommVault Systems | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.0% | 1.0% | -5.1% |
| 01302026 | NTNX | Nutanix | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.3% | -2.3% | -6.3% |
| 01302026 | FICO | Fair Isaac | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -11.1% | -11.1% | -16.1% |
| 01162026 | INTU | Intuit | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -30.1% | -30.1% | -34.2% |
| 10312022 | INTU | Intuit | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.9% | 16.6% | -15.5% |
| 04302022 | INTU | Intuit | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.5% | 6.8% | -15.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 179.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 100.3 |
| Rev LTM | 20,324 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,383 |
| FCF LTM | 3,003 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,039 |
| CFO LTM | 5,611 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,985 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 100.3 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/EBIT | 18.9 |
| P/E | 24.6 |
| P/CFO | 17.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -13.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -27.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -36.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -31.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 4.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -27.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -44.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -47.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Business Solutions | 9,533 | 8,038 | 6,460 | 4,688 | 4,050 |
| Consumer | 4,445 | 4,135 | 3,915 | 3,563 | 3,136 |
| Credit Karma | 1,708 | 1,634 | 1,805 | 865 | |
| ProTax | 599 | 561 | 546 | 517 | 493 |
| Total | 16,285 | 14,368 | 12,726 | 9,633 | 7,679 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Business Solutions | 7,157 | 4,581 | 3,499 | 2,590 | 2,091 |
| Consumer | 3,493 | 2,875 | 2,483 | 2,237 | 2,063 |
| ProTax | 520 | 455 | 383 | 372 | 346 |
| Credit Karma | 414 | 428 | 531 | 182 | |
| Amortization of acquired technology | -146 | -163 | -140 | -50 | -22 |
| Restructuring charges | -223 | 0 | |||
| Amortization of other acquired intangible assets | -483 | -483 | -416 | -146 | -6 |
| Share-based compensation expense | -1,915 | -1,712 | -1,308 | -753 | -435 |
| Other corporate expenses | -5,187 | -2,840 | -2,461 | -1,932 | -1,861 |
| Total | 3,630 | 3,141 | 2,571 | 2,500 | 2,176 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $409.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 114.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/22/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -49.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $533.50 | $658.57 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -23.3% | -37.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.4% | 34.7% |
| Downside Capture | 348.11 | 135.79 |
| Upside Capture | 60.17 | 74.23 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 38.0% | 52.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.62 | 1.58 | 1.06 | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Up Beta | 2.69 | 2.31 | 1.44 | 1.09 | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| Down Beta | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.72 | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | 28% | -19% | 58% | 40% | 65% | 136% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 13 | 25 | 54 | 124 | 385 |
| Down Capture | 362% | 354% | 293% | 180% | 120% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 28 | 36 | 70 | 126 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | -34.3% | 34.9% | -1.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.8% | 27.5% | 0.67 | 51.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 19.4% | 0.66 | 52.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 81.3% | 25.7% | 2.29 | -1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 16.9% | 0.58 | 13.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 16.6% | 0.25 | 32.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.0% | 44.9% | -0.42 | 24.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | 1.0% | 35.0% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.7% | 24.8% | 0.61 | 67.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 67.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 17.1% | 1.12 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.44 | 9.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 45.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 57.0% | 0.29 | 28.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | 16.4% | 32.3% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.5% | 24.2% | 0.85 | 73.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 71.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 16.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 50.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 65.8% | 66.8% | 1.05 | 19.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/20/2025 | 4.0% | -0.9% | 5.8% |
| 8/21/2025 | -5.0% | -4.2% | 0.6% |
| 5/22/2025 | 8.1% | 13.1% | 14.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 12.6% | 7.6% | 10.7% |
| 11/21/2024 | -5.7% | -5.4% | -6.0% |
| 11/28/2023 | 2.2% | 1.2% | 11.1% |
| 8/24/2023 | 4.1% | 8.7% | 2.0% |
| 5/23/2023 | -7.5% | -6.8% | 0.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.1% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 13.8% | 19.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -8.7% | -18.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10/31/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/02/2022 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aujla, Sandeep | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 629.46 | 1,335 | 840,097 | 337,234 | Form |
| 2 | Cook, Scott D | Trust | Sell | 1022026 | 668.02 | 1,402 | 936,564 | 3,786,458,940 | Form | |
| 3 | Cook, Scott D | Trust | Sell | 12312025 | 671.56 | 75,000 | 50,367,047 | 3,807,469,390 | Form | |
| 4 | Cook, Scott D | Trust | Sell | 12302025 | 673.43 | 75,000 | 50,506,991 | 3,868,555,369 | Form | |
| 5 | Aujla, Sandeep | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 675.00 | 1,098 | 741,172 | 133,076 | Form |
INTU Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment case presents a nearly symmetrical raw risk/reward profile. However, after adjusting for the higher probability of the downside scenario (driven by a contested moat, decelerating growth, and high valuation), the probability-adjusted skew falls well below 1.0x. The current valuation appears to price in the bull case while leaving the stock vulnerable to a significant re-rating on any negative catalyst.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderIntuit's profile fits a mature version of a High-Beta Compounder. While its guided growth of 12-13% is moderate, its premium valuation (~30x P/E) is highly sensitive to shifts in that growth trajectory and broader market sentiment for software. The investment debate centers on growth durability and competitive moat, aligning with the core focus of this archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis rests on Intuit's ability to drive durable, high-margin revenue growth by increasing prices on its captive small business user base and cross-selling high-attach rate services like payroll and payments within the QuickBooks ecosystem.
- QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue growth accelerated to 25% in Q1 2026, driven by higher effective prices, customer growth, and mix-shift.
- Intuit's dominant market share (over 62% in U.S. accounting software) and high customer retention (84%) create a strong foundation for pricing power.
- The company has a proven track record of significant price increases, with the QuickBooks Online Plus plan increasing by over 64% in the last five years.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary structural risk is that advanced AI could automate and commoditize the core bookkeeping and tax preparation functions that justify Intuit's subscription fees, leading to long-term pricing pressure, churn, and a breakdown of the company's pricing power moat.
- The primary bear case noted in the data is 'AI-driven automation could eventually commoditize core accounting functions'.
- The market is already signaling concern, with the stock's recent pressure attributed to 'broader market concerns about AI disruption and a re-rating of software valuations'.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| QuickBooks Online Accounting Revenue Growth | > 20% YoY | This is the primary engine of the Alpha Driver thesis. Continued growth above 20% validates the pricing power and cross-sell strategy. A drop below this level signals maturation or competitive pressure. |
| TurboTax Live Customer Growth | Positive YoY Growth | As a key near-term risk centers on tax season performance, monitoring the uptake of this high-ARPU offering is critical. A decline would signal market share pressure or a weak tax season. |
| Operating Margin (Non-GAAP) | Expansion of >100bps YoY | A core tenet of the thesis is that Intuit is an efficiency engine. The company must continue to demonstrate operating leverage by expanding margins, proving it can translate revenue growth into disproportionate profitability. |
Pricing Power vs. External Threats
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe high switching costs and a strong moat will allow continued price increases and cross-selling, driving durable growth regardless of external noise.
CORE TENSION
Can Intuit's dominant ecosystem and pricing power overcome mounting regulatory pressure, tax season uncertainty, and valuation headwinds?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The upcoming Q2 earnings on Feb 26, 2026, where Q3 guidance will be provided, is the key catalyst. A weak TurboTax outlook would validate the bear case.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a convergence of risks: FTC litigation, tough tax season comps, and high valuation creating significant downside risk if guidance falters.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 26, 2026 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Watch: Q3 Guidance, especially TurboTax segment revenue growth and conversion rates. |
Q2 2026 | FTC Deceptive Advertising Litigation Trial Watch: News of a settlement, summary judgment, or specific trial outcomes. |
Ongoing | Macro Data: 10-Year Treasury Yield Watch: Yield consistently holding above 4.5%, signaling a 'higher for longer' rate environment. |
Next 6 months | Microsoft Dynamics SMB Bundle Announcement Watch: Announcement of a new, aggressively priced SMB software bundle or migration wins from QuickBooks. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-07-30 | Stock Reaches 52-Week High Details: Shares reached a peak after a multi-month rally, reflecting strong business momentum before reversing course in the subsequent month. | Flat (0.1%) $803.38 -> $804.43 |
2025-08-21 | Q4 FY2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: The company reported Q4 results and provided initial guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting double-digit revenue growth. The negative stock reaction suggests guidance may have disappointed high investor expectations. | Plummeted 5.0% $695.20 -> $660.23 |
2025-09-18 | Annual Investor Day Details: Intuit hosted its annual investor day, outlining its long-term strategy and financial targets, with a focus on its AI-driven expert platform. | Modest 1.9% gain $660.25 -> $672.49 |
2025-11-20 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings Details: Intuit reported Q1 revenue and EPS that beat analyst estimates, driven by accelerating growth in the QuickBooks Online ecosystem. | Rose significantly by 4.0% $636.26 -> $661.93 |
2026-02-03 | Pre-Earnings Sell-Off Details: Stock plummeted on elevated volume, reflecting significant investor anxiety ahead of Q2 earnings and concerns over tough tax-season comparisons and sector-wide valuation pressure. | Crashed 10.9% $487.12 -> $434.09 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.0x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, expensive valuation, and decelerating growth guidance force a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
PTC
INDUSTRYUnlike Intuit, PTC's industrial software base is less exposed to consumer regulatory risk (FTC) and direct-to-consumer sentiment shifts during events like tax season.
VEEV
SECTORVeeva possesses a stronger, more specialized moat in the life sciences vertical, insulating it from Intuit's SMB-focused competitive and regulatory threats.
Intuit is evolving from a desktop software vendor into a unified, AI-driven financial technology platform, leveraging its massive user base in tax and accounting to cross-sell a growing ecosystem of high-margin services like payments, marketing, and personal finance.
Filter all news through the AI-driven 'expert platform' thesis. The key question is whether AI enhances pricing power and ecosystem attachment faster than it creates new, low-cost competitive threats.
QuickBooks Online subscriber growth >10% YoY; high-margin 'TurboTax Live' revenue growth >15%; Credit Karma revenue growth accelerating into double digits; evidence of successful Mailchimp cross-selling into the QuickBooks base; price increases justified by new AI features like Intuit Assist.
Slowing subscriber growth in QuickBooks Online; market share loss to competitors like Xero or H&R Block; regulatory action limiting cross-selling or targeting TurboTax 'Free File' marketing; signs that AI is commoditizing bookkeeping or tax prep, leading to price erosion; a sustained downturn in consumer credit impacting Credit Karma's revenue.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in desktop software sales — the strategic focus is the online ecosystem; short-term changes in consumer credit demand — the long-term integration thesis for Credit Karma is more important; individual competitor product announcements without evidence of market share shifts.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful monetization of the 'AI-driven expert platform' strategy, primarily through products like TurboTax Live and the new Intuit Assist. The company's ability to demonstrate that AI can drive higher Average Revenue Per Customer (ARPC) and expand operating margins is the key catalyst. Management has guided for 12-13% revenue growth in FY2026 with operating margins expanding, setting a clear benchmark for the market.
Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks & Mailchimp Ecosystem)
$11.1B TTM (59% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
QuickBooks Online (cloud accounting software); QuickBooks Desktop; Mailchimp (email marketing platform); integrated payment processing and payroll services.
Who Pays & How
Over 10 million small and self-employed businesses pay recurring subscription fees. The primary lock-in is extremely high switching costs associated with migrating years of financial data and retraining on a new accounting platform.
Competition
Consumer (TurboTax & Personal Finance)
$4.9B TTM (26% of Total) · 78% MarginWhat It Is
TurboTax (DIY and expert-assisted tax preparation software); Mint (personal finance management).
Who Pays & How
Tens of millions of individuals pay per tax filing or subscribe to expert assistance (TurboTax Live). They pay for the convenience, brand trust, and ease of importing prior-year tax data.
Competition
Credit Karma (Financial Marketplace)
$2.3B TTM (12% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
A personal finance platform offering free credit scores, credit monitoring, and a marketplace for financial products.
Who Pays & How
Financial institutions (banks, credit card companies) pay Credit Karma a referral fee when a user signs up for a product (e.g., a credit card or personal loan) through the platform. Users do not pay for the service.
Competition
ProTax Group
$0.6B TTM (3% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Professional tax preparation software for accountants, including Lacerte, ProSeries, and ProConnect Tax Online.
Who Pays & How
Professional accounting firms pay for software to prepare and file tax returns for their clients. They pay for efficiency, accuracy, and integration with tax authorities.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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