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Intel (INTC)


Market Price (11/29/2025): $40.78 | Market Cap: $184.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors

Intel (INTC)


Market Price (11/29/2025): $40.78
Market Cap: $184.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 8.6 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 765x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.6%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 8.6 Bil
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 765x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.6%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

INTC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat and Positive Guidance

Intel reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, with revenue increasing 3% year-over-year to $13.7 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $13.11 billion. The company also posted a non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, significantly higher than the anticipated $0.01 per share. This strong financial performance, including a 161% jump in gross profit to $5.2 billion, signaled improved execution and strategic progress, which was further supported by a positive revenue outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating healthy demand.

2. Major Strategic Partnership and Investment from NVIDIA

A significant catalyst for Intel's stock was the announcement of a strategic collaboration with NVIDIA to jointly develop custom data center and PC products. This partnership aims to integrate Intel's CPU architecture with NVIDIA's AI and accelerated computing platforms. As a testament to confidence in Intel's long-term strategy, NVIDIA committed to investing $5 billion in Intel common stock, a transaction that exceeded the specified threshold for insider dealings and underscored a strong vote of confidence from a key industry player.

3. Substantial U.S. Government Funding (CHIPS Act)

Intel received a significant financial boost during Q3 2025 with $5.7 billion in funding from the U.S. Government, part of a broader $8.9 billion agreement under the CHIPS Act. This capital injection is intended to support the expansion of American technology and manufacturing leadership, providing substantial backing for Intel's domestic operations and contributing to investor optimism regarding the company's long-term stability and growth.

4. Advancements in AI Processors and Foundry Services with New Product Launches

Intel demonstrated continued progress in its AI strategy and foundry business. The company unveiled new Intel Core Ultra (Series 2) processors designed for AI PCs at CES 2025 and introduced new GPUs for AI and workstations. A key development was the confirmation that Panther Lake, Intel's first client processor leveraging its advanced 18A process technology, is on track for high-volume production by the end of 2025, with availability in early 2026. Furthermore, Intel's foundry services secured high-profile customers like Microsoft and Amazon for its 18A process, with advanced packaging revenue expected to ramp up in the second half of 2025.

5. Potential Apple Foundry Partnership

In late November 2025, reports from analysts suggested that Intel could become a foundry supplier for some of Apple's M-series processors. This potential partnership, which could see shipments commence as early as 2027, was perceived as a significant validation of Intel's advanced-node manufacturing capabilities and a major positive catalyst for its foundry business. The news alone reportedly caused Intel's stock to surge over 8% on Black Friday, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm for the prospective collaboration.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
INTC Return-15%6%-47%95%-60%84%-30%
Peers Return61%58%-38%101%31%68%601%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
INTC Win Rate58%50%33%75%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%43%30%53%43%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
INTC Max Drawdown-25%-2%-50%-5%-62%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-9%-45%-1%-8%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NVDA, AMD, MU, AMAT, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventINTCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-63.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-34.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven176 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven131.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1127 days1480 days

Compare to NVDA, AMD, MU, AMAT, AMBQ


In The Past

Intel's stock fell -63.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/9/2021. A -63.3% loss requires a 172.6% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Intel (INTC)

Interactive Breakdown

Intel Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Intel (INTC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to INTC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.0%-7.0%-15.2%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-4.0%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.7%-6.7%-8.2%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%-5.0%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.3%4.3%-8.9%
INTC_8312024_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE08312024INTCIntelDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
7.7%10.5%-17.7%
INTC_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022INTCIntelDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-32.1%-25.6%-41.5%
INTC_10312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312020INTCIntelDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
31.7%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.0%-7.0%-15.2%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-4.0%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.7%-6.7%-8.2%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%-5.0%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.3%4.3%-8.9%
INTC_8312024_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE08312024INTCIntelDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
7.7%10.5%-17.7%
INTC_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022INTCIntelDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-32.1%-25.6%-41.5%
INTC_10312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312020INTCIntelDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
31.7%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Intel

Peers to compare with:

Financials

INTCNVDAAMDMUAMATAMBQMedian
NameIntel NVIDIA Advanced.Micron T.Applied .Ambiq Mi. 
Mkt Price36.81180.26214.24230.26249.9724.08197.25
Mkt Cap166.24,392.2348.4258.4199.5-258.4
Rev LTM53,439165,21832,02737,37828,6136934,702
Op Inc LTM-10495,9812,9999,8098,623-385,811
FCF LTM-8,41872,0235,4481,6685,823-213,558
FCF 3Y Avg-11,22743,0442,775-1,4436,457-2,775
CFO LTM8,57477,0356,40817,5257,705-168,140
CFO 3Y Avg10,95745,8663,4619,1977,788-9,197

Growth & Margins

INTCNVDAAMDMUAMATAMBQMedian
NameIntel NVIDIA Advanced.Micron T.Applied .Ambiq Mi. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.5%71.6%31.8%48.9%6.6%-31.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.6%92.0%12.9%20.3%4.4%-12.9%
Rev Chg Q2.8%55.6%35.6%46.0%7.7%-35.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%11.2%8.2%10.5%1.9%-8.2%
Op Mgn LTM-0.2%58.1%9.4%26.2%30.1%-54.6%17.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.7%51.0%4.9%-1.1%29.4%-4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM8.1%0.1%1.1%3.7%0.5%-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM16.0%46.6%20.0%46.9%26.9%-22.6%23.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.5%44.5%12.4%30.3%28.5%-28.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-15.8%43.6%17.0%4.5%20.4%-29.7%10.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-20.9%41.3%9.8%-11.5%23.7%-9.8%

Valuation

INTCNVDAAMDMUAMATAMBQMedian
NameIntel NVIDIA Advanced.Micron T.Applied .Ambiq Mi. 
Mkt Cap166.24,392.2348.4258.4199.5-258.4
P/S2.823.38.25.05.1-5.1
P/EBIT53.038.285.718.515.9-38.2
P/E764.944.579.622.021.4-44.5
P/CFO17.750.041.110.719.0-19.0
Total Yield0.1%2.3%1.3%4.8%5.6%-2.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.9%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-9.1%1.5%1.2%-2.4%4.4%-1.2%
D/E0.30.00.00.10.0-0.0
Net D/E0.1-0.0-0.00.0-0.0--0.0

Returns

INTCNVDAAMDMUAMATAMBQMedian
NameIntel NVIDIA Advanced.Micron T.Applied .Ambiq Mi. 
1M Rtn-11.0%-12.9%-18.9%1.6%6.2%-20.8%-11.9%
3M Rtn51.2%3.5%31.7%93.6%55.8%-39.4%41.5%
6M Rtn88.3%33.4%93.5%144.1%60.2%-88.3%
12M Rtn55.6%33.2%57.3%135.5%47.4%-55.6%
3Y Rtn32.1%1,054.0%191.9%324.6%148.7%-191.9%
1M Excs Rtn-10.2%-9.2%-15.8%4.9%11.2%-17.6%-9.7%
3M Excs Rtn42.9%-4.7%22.3%84.1%46.8%-43.2%32.6%
6M Excs Rtn66.5%14.3%74.3%123.0%42.3%-66.5%
12M Excs Rtn36.1%12.9%40.7%111.1%30.2%-36.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-40.6%1,005.8%123.2%237.0%72.4%-123.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Client Computing Group (CCG)29,25831,77341,06740,05737,146
Intel Foundry18,910469786  
Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI)12,63519,44522,691  
Network and Edge (NEX)5,7748,4097,976  
All Other5,6081,0895,019522289
Corporate unallocated0    
Intersegment eliminations-17,957    
Mobileye 1,8691,386  
Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics  774  
Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics intersegment revenue  -675  
Data Center Group   26,10323,481
Internet of Things Group   3,9744,700
Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group   5,3584,362
Programmable Solutions Group   1,8531,987
Total54,22863,05479,02477,86771,965


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Client Computing Group (CCG)9,5135,56915,70415,12915,202
Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI)1,6201,3008,439  
All Other1,079-5,977-5,722-3,381-3,878
Network and Edge (NEX)2041,0331,711  
Intersegment eliminations-203    
Corporate unallocated-5,165    
Intel Foundry-6,955-281-23  
Mobileye 690554  
Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics  -1,207  
Data Center Group   10,57110,227
Internet of Things Group   7381,342
Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group   361-1,176
Programmable Solutions Group   260318
Total932,33419,45623,67822,035


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity131,905,538
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.6%
Average Daily Volume75,711,769
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.74
Basic Shares Quantity4,514,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20250.3%5.2%-9.6%
7/24/2025-8.5%-12.5%9.6%
4/24/2025-6.7%-7.0%-6.7%
1/30/2025-2.9%-3.1%13.6%
10/31/20247.8%21.9%11.2%
8/1/2024-26.1%-29.0%-23.6%
4/25/2024-9.2%-13.1%-12.1%
1/25/2024-11.9%-12.5%-13.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive897
# Negative161517
Median Positive7.2%5.0%10.8%
Median Negative-7.8%-9.3%-9.8%
Max Positive10.7%21.9%36.0%
Max Negative-26.1%-29.0%-23.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024131202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023126202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023428202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022127202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022729202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022429202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021127202210-K 12/25/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Holthaus Michelle JohnstonEVP & GM, CCG11082024Sell26.0025,000650,0007,104,708Form
1GELSINGER PATRICK PCEO11062024Buy22.5311,150251,1982,366,288Form