Illumina (ILMN)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $117.63 | Market Cap: $17.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Illumina (ILMN)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $117.63Market Cap: $17.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% | Key risksILMN key risks include [1] major regulatory fines and a forced divestiture related to its Grail acquisition, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8% |
| Key risksILMN key risks include [1] major regulatory fines and a forced divestiture related to its Grail acquisition, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Post-Earnings Volatility and Genomics Market Recovery Pace.
Despite exceeding analyst expectations for its fourth-quarter 2025 results, Illumina's stock experienced a significant drop of 10.4% following its earnings report on February 5, 2026. This decline was primarily driven by investor apprehension regarding the pace of recovery in the broader genomics market and "transition friction" as customers upgraded from older sequencers to the new NovaSeq X series. Illumina reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.16 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $1.12 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.35, surpassing the $1.23 estimate.
2. Conservative 2026 Financial Guidance.
Illumina's financial outlook for fiscal year 2026 contributed to investor caution. The company projected total revenue between $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion, representing a reported growth of 4% to 6%, with organic revenue growth (excluding China) expected to be 2% to 4%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance was set at $5.05 to $5.20, which included an estimated $0.18 dilution from the recently completed SomaLogic acquisition.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.5% change in ILMN stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 131.45 | 117.67 | -10.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,288 | 4,343 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 19.6% | 19.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.6 | 21.0 | -26.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 153 | 152 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ILMN | -10.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 3.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | -8.7% | 27.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.7% change in ILMN stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.96 | 117.67 | 17.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,284 | 4,343 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.4% | 19.6% | -33.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 21.0 | 68.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 157 | 152 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ILMN | 17.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 16.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.2% | 30.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.6% change in ILMN stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 88.74 | 117.67 | 32.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,372 | 4,343 | -0.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.2 | 4.1 | 27.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 152 | 4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ILMN | 32.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 40.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.1% | 43.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.2% change in ILMN stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 193.59 | 117.67 | -39.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,583 | 4,343 | -5.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.6 | 4.1 | -37.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 157 | 152 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ILMN | -39.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 36.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.4% | 41.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ILMN Return | 3% | -47% | -31% | -1% | -2% | -5% | -65% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -19% | -9% | 0% | 2% | -14% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ILMN Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 43% | 48% | 48% | 55% | 7% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ILMN Max Drawdown | -6% | -53% | -54% | -27% | -47% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -33% | -28% | -9% | -25% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TMO, DHR, A, QGEN, BIO. See ILMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ILMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 465.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 623 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TMO, DHR, A, QGEN, BIO
In The Past
Illumina's stock fell -82.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2021. A -82.3% loss requires a 465.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Illumina (ILMN)
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Illumina:
The Intel for DNA sequencing.
The Microsoft for genetic analysis tools.
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```html- Instruments & Consumables: Devices and materials essential for genetic and genomic analysis.
- Genotyping & Sequencing Services: Solutions that provide genetic and genomic data analysis for research and clinical applications.
- Instrument Service Contracts: Agreements for maintenance and support of Illumina's genetic analysis instruments.
- Development & Licensing Agreements: Collaborative partnerships and intellectual property licenses for genomic solutions.
- Cancer Detection Testing Services: Specialized services focused on identifying genetic markers related to cancer.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
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```htmlJacob Thaysen, Chief Executive Officer and Interim Chief Commercial Officer
Joined Illumina in 2023. Prior to Illumina, he served as president of the Life Sciences and Applied Markets Group and the Diagnostics and Genomics Group at Agilent Technologies for a decade, where he significantly improved revenue and operating profit. He was also corporate vice president of R&D at Dako. Earlier in his career, he founded and was Chief Technology Officer of Cantion, a research and defense application development company based in Denmark.
Ankur Dhingra, Chief Financial Officer
Appointed Chief Financial Officer effective April 15, 2024, Dhingra is responsible for Illumina's accounting, financial planning and analysis, internal audit, investor relations, tax, and treasury functions. Before joining Illumina, he served as CFO at Summit Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical oncology company, and previously as CFO at CareDx, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company. He also spent 18 years at Agilent Technologies in various financial and operational leadership roles, including Vice President of Investor Relations and Group CFO for the Life Sciences and Applied Markets Group.
Steve Barnard, PhD, Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Barnard joined Illumina in 1998 as the company's first scientist and fourth employee, and has held various leadership positions within Illumina's R&D organization for over 25 years. He has contributed significantly to maturing Illumina's foundational science technologies and played an integral role in the launch of industry-leading products such as the NovaSeq X series. He holds more than 100 patents globally.
Scott Davies, Chief Legal Officer
Mr. Davies joined Illumina in 2009 as its first corporate-focused attorney and has since managed all of Illumina's significant corporate legal matters and transactions. Prior to Illumina, he spent 12 years as a corporate transactions (M&A), securities, and finance attorney, including 10 years with Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP and two years with Allen & Overy. He served as interim General Counsel and Secretary before his appointment as Chief Legal Officer in 2025.
Eric Green, MD, PhD, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Green was appointed Chief Medical Officer effective February 2, 2026. He joined Illumina after more than 31 years at the National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) at the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), where he served as NHGRI Director for 15 years. He played a crucial role in integrating genomics into medicine and public health, and was a beginning-to-end participant in the Human Genome Project.
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The public company Illumina (symbol: ILMN) faces several key risks to its business, ordered from most to least significant:
- Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks in China: Illumina is significantly impacted by geopolitical tensions and regulatory actions in China. China has placed Illumina on its "unreliable entities list" and prohibited the export of its gene sequencers to the country, citing violations of market transaction rules and alleged discrimination against Chinese companies. This ban directly affects Illumina's market access, revenue streams, and long-term growth prospects in a crucial region. The situation also raises concerns about potential supply chain disruptions and intellectual property disclosure risks for life science companies operating with partners in China.
- Intensifying Competition: Illumina faces increasing competition in the genetic sequencing market. While Illumina has historically held a dominant position, rivals such as Pacific Biosciences and Oxford Nanopore Technologies are expanding their presence, particularly in areas like long-read and portable real-time sequencing. The anticipated entry of major players like Roche into the genetic sequencing market in 2026 poses a further significant threat, potentially leading to increased pricing pressures and reduced margins for Illumina. This competitive landscape, coupled with funding softness in academia and stricter regulatory requirements, challenges Illumina's ability to maintain its market share.
- Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities and Regulatory Scrutiny: Illumina has encountered significant challenges related to cybersecurity vulnerabilities within its genomic sequencing systems. The company agreed to pay $9.8 million to resolve allegations that it violated the False Claims Act by selling federal agencies systems with software containing cybersecurity flaws without adequate security programs. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has also issued warnings and initiated Class II recalls due to vulnerabilities that could allow unauthorized users to remotely control instruments, alter genomic data, or impact patient results. This highlights a growing regulatory focus on cybersecurity in medical devices and the potential for legal and financial repercussions, even in the absence of an actual data breach.
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- The emergence of ultra-low-cost genome sequencing technologies from competitors like Ultima Genomics, which aim to deliver whole genome sequencing at significantly lower price points (e.g., $100 per genome). If proven scalable and accurate, this could fundamentally commoditize sequencing, eroding Illumina's premium pricing power and market share.
- The accelerating advancements and increasing adoption of long-read sequencing technologies from companies such as Pacific Biosciences (PacBio) and Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT). As these technologies improve in accuracy, throughput, and cost-efficiency, they pose a direct competitive threat to Illumina's historically dominant short-read sequencing platforms, particularly in applications requiring the resolution of complex genomic regions or the detection of structural variants.
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Illumina (ILMN) operates within several significant addressable markets related to genetic and genomic analysis. Below are the estimated market sizes for its main products and services:
- Overall Genomics Market: The global genomics market was valued at approximately USD 46.06 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 186.64 billion by 2035. Illumina itself has stated that its addressable genomics market is expanding from USD 5 billion to USD 120 billion by 2027. Within this, the clinical market is estimated to have a total addressable market of over USD 100 billion, while the research market has a total addressable market of USD 25 billion.
- DNA Sequencing and Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS): The global DNA sequencing market size was estimated at USD 14.88 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 91.88 billion by 2033. Similarly, the global next-generation sequencing (NGS) market size was calculated at approximately USD 12.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 89.4 billion by 2035.
- Genotyping Services: The global genotyping market size was valued at USD 21.88 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 63.29 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global genotyping market size at USD 17.9 billion in 2023, with an expectation to grow to USD 46.53 billion by 2030.
- Cancer Detection Testing Services (Oncology Testing): The global cancer diagnostics market size was calculated at USD 170 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 378.44 billion by 2035. Specifically, the global multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test market size was valued at USD 1.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 5.8 billion in 2034. Illumina's former CEO indicated that Grail's multi-cancer early detection blood test alone would address a market worth USD 44 billion by 2027.
- Genomics Data Analysis: The global genomics data analysis market size was estimated at USD 5.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 20.49 billion by 2033.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Illumina (ILMN) over the next 2-3 years:1. Accelerated Adoption and Enhancements of the NovaSeq X Platform and Consumables: Illumina anticipates significant revenue growth from the continued adoption of its NovaSeq X sequencing system. Recent and planned enhancements to the NovaSeq X, including increased output (up to 40% higher with new 35B flow cells), faster turnaround times (30% improvement for WGS workflows), and improved data quality (Q70 quality score technology), are expected to drive higher instrument placements and, more critically, recurring consumables revenue. These advancements aim to make sequencing "better, cheaper, and faster," enabling larger and more complex studies and expanding market reach.
2. Expansion into Clinical Genomics Applications: A key driver is the deepening penetration of Illumina's sequencing technology into clinical settings across various health areas. This includes prioritizing oncology testing (e.g., highly sensitive molecular residual disease (MRD) testing, somatic and liquid biopsy), reproductive health, and rare disease diagnostics. Initiatives like the launch of TruPath Genome, a whole genome offering focused on higher accuracy and efficiency for rare disease workflows, and strategic partnerships for preventive genomics are central to this expansion. Illumina expects robust clinical growth, with double-digit to mid-teens growth projected for clinical consumables in 2026.
3. Growth in Multiomics and Integrated Data Solutions: Illumina is expanding its offerings beyond genomics to integrate multiomic data, which combines genetic analysis with other biological information like proteomics and epigenomics. This strategy involves both internal development and targeted acquisitions, such as Partek for multiomics software and SomaLogic for proteomics. Collaborations like the expanded Alliance for Genomic Discovery, which includes Regeneron Genetics Center and a new multiomic dataset initiative, are designed to support large-scale drug discovery and clinical research, thereby creating more comprehensive "sample to answer" solutions and driving demand for Illumina's platforms and services.
4. Geographic Market Expansion and Installed Base Growth: Illumina aims to expand its global installed base of instruments and drive increased clinical adoption in various regions. Despite some localized challenges, particularly in parts of China and EMEA in early 2024, the company emphasizes localized service, regulatory clearances, and distributor networks for geographic scaling. Management targets double-digit growth in China and broader APAC through 2026, and overall, analysts anticipate consistent revenue contributions from international markets, especially Europe. The expansion of the installed base fuels recurring consumables revenue, a significant component of Illumina's business model.
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Capital Allocation Decisions Summary for Illumina (ILMN) (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Illumina repurchased $42 million worth of shares in Q4 2025 at an average price of $124.12 per share.
- The company's annual share buybacks were $742 million in 2025 and $116 million in 2024.
- As of December 31, 2025, Illumina had $643 million remaining on its share repurchase authorization. In Q1 2025, approximately $1.2 billion in authorization remained.
Share Issuance
- In Q1 2025, Illumina's Board of Directors approved an amendment to its 2015 Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan to increase the maximum number of shares authorized for issuance by 7.9 million shares, subject to stockholder approval on May 21, 2025.
- Illumina's shares outstanding for the quarter ending December 31, 2025, were 154 million, a 3.14% decline year-over-year.
- Illumina's shares outstanding for 2025 were 0.156 billion, a 1.89% decline from 2024. In 2024, shares outstanding were 0.159 billion, a 0.63% increase from 2023.
Outbound Investments
- Illumina completed the acquisition of SomaLogic on January 30, 2026.
- Illumina made a significant acquisition of GRAIL, Inc., which was later subject to regulatory challenges, leading to its spin-off in Q2 2024.
- In January 2026, Illumina completed a $500 million public offering of 4.750% notes due in 2030, with plans to use the proceeds for various corporate purposes, including potential acquisitions and debt repayment.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for free cash flow purposes were $148 million for fiscal year 2025.
- Capital expenditures for free cash flow purposes were $137 million for fiscal year 2024.
- In Q1 2025, capital expenditures for free cash flow purposes were $32 million. The investing cash flow for the nine months ended September 28, 2025, was $(163) million, primarily reflecting ongoing investment in the business.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ILMN.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
| 05312025 | ILMN | Illumina | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 59.8% | 63.5% | -1.4% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 149.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 24.5 |
| Rev LTM | 5,704 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,136 |
| FCF LTM | 962 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 980 |
| CFO LTM | 1,238 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,241 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 24.5 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 22.6 |
| P/CFO | 18.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Illumina | 4,438 | 4,553 | 3,543 | ||
| GRAIL | 93 | 55 | |||
| Intersegment eliminations | -26 | -24 | -1 | ||
| Helix | 1 | ||||
| Total | 4,505 | 4,584 | 3,543 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Illumina | 552 | 481 | 1,008 | ||
| GRAIL | -4,657 | ||||
| Intersegment eliminations | -3 | -24 | |||
| Helix | 1 | ||||
| Total | 552 | -4,179 | 985 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $117.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 17.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/28/2000 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $129.38 | $113.98 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -9.1% | 3.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 44.8% | 49.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.48 | 0.90 |
| Upside Capture | 20.75 | 146.83 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -3.1% | 39.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.70 | -0.82 | -0.30 | 0.67 | 1.01 | 1.09 |
| Up Beta | -6.09 | -4.00 | -3.05 | -0.62 | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| Down Beta | 0.29 | -1.42 | -0.85 | -0.22 | 0.83 | 1.10 |
| Up Capture | -181% | 33% | 73% | 196% | 202% | 105% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 18 | 28 | 59 | 122 | 356 |
| Down Capture | -12% | 35% | 63% | 108% | 117% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 33 | 65 | 128 | 394 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ILMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | 47.0% | 49.1% | 0.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 0.3% | 17.6% | -0.13 | 44.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 15.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 35.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 15.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ILMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | -21.9% | 45.4% | -0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.0% | 14.5% | 0.23 | 45.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 46.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 12.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 42.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 19.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ILMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | -1.8% | 42.6% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.7% | 16.5% | 0.48 | 49.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 48.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 15.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 36.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 12.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/13/2026 | 1.0% | 1.1% | -20.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | 24.8% | 22.3% | 28.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -7.8% | -7.0% | -2.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | -4.8% | 1.7% | 6.8% |
| 1/14/2025 | -5.4% | -2.0% | -28.2% |
| 11/4/2024 | 1.0% | -1.3% | -7.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 4.1% | 2.9% | 11.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | -4.9% | -10.2% | -16.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 3.8% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -8.1% | -11.8% |
| Max Positive | 24.8% | 22.3% | 28.8% |
| Max Negative | -14.6% | -25.5% | -28.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Company Revenue | 4.50 Bil | 4.55 Bil | 4.60 Bil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Ex-China Organic Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 23.3% | 23.4% | 23.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 22.88% for 2025 |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 5.05 | 5.12 | 5.2 | 9.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.7 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davies, Scott M | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 136.09 | 323 | 43,957 | 2,434,242 | Form |
| 2 | Wedel, Christensen Jakob | SVP, Strategy/Corp Development | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 129.27 | 549 | 70,969 | 1,415,765 | Form |
| 3 | Gottlieb, Scott | Direct | Buy | 11052025 | 122.13 | 500 | 61,065 | 1,529,434 | Form | |
| 4 | Dhingra, Ankur | SVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 5142025 | 81.21 | 6,100 | 495,381 | 2,022,616 | Form |
| 5 | Thaysen, Jacob | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 5142025 | 80.88 | 6,500 | 525,732 | 6,271,578 | Form |
ILMN Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is well below 1.0x, indicating a highly unfavorable risk/reward profile. The downside scenario is both more likely (60% probability) and of a greater magnitude (-39.1%) than the upside. The speculative valuation requires near-perfect execution into a contested market, leaving no margin for error.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type E: 'Turnaround / Deep Value'The company's performance is defined by a significant operational turnaround centered on a new product cycle (NovaSeq X) following a period of flat/negative growth and strategic missteps (GRAIL acquisition). The investment thesis hinges on management's ability to execute this turnaround amid cyclical market headwinds, which is the core focus of this archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis is centered on the successful execution of the NovaSeq X product cycle. Consistent new instrument placements are expanding the installed base, which is now beginning to drive an acceleration in high-margin, recurring consumables revenue as customers increase utilization. This creates a positive mix-shift and margin tailwind.
- Sequencing Consumables Revenue Growth is accelerating, growing at a 'high single-digit rate' in Q3 2025.
- NovaSeq X instrument placements have been stable and robust, with over 55 placed in Q3 2025, meeting the company's goal of 50-60 per quarter.
- The business mix is shifting accretively towards high-margin (~70-75%) consumables, which now represent ~72% of the core business mix.
PRIMARY RISK
Competitors like Pacific Biosciences and Element Biosciences are gaining traction in core high-throughput applications, directly threatening Illumina's primary profit engine. This is not just niche competition but a direct assault on the 'razor-and-blade' model via pricing pressure and customer trade-in programs.
- The 'Next 6 Month Tangible Risks' section identifies 'Competitive Cannibalization' as a 'CRITICAL' impact risk with 'HIGH' likelihood.
- Competitors are actively targeting Illumina's installed base with 'trade-in' programs.
- Illumina is dominant in the 'Efficiency/Scale' segment but is losing to competitors in the 'Performance-Sensitive' (PACB) and 'Price-Value' (TMO) segments.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Sequencing Consumables Revenue Growth | Sustained high-single-digit YoY growth | This is the primary North Star metric. Its acceleration confirms the NovaSeq X installed base is driving utilization and validates the entire 'razor-and-blade' thesis. |
| NovaSeq X Instrument Placements | 50+ units per quarter | This is the leading indicator for future consumables revenue. A failure to maintain this placement velocity would be the earliest sign that the core 'Alpha Driver' is failing. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Stable above 68% | This KPI is the most direct way to measure the impact of the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. A sustained decline would indicate that competitive pricing pressure is eroding the profitability of the core consumables business. |
Turnaround vs. Overhang: NovaSeq Cycle vs. GRAIL Divestiture & Competition
BULL VIEW
The operational turnaround is real. Accelerating consumables revenue, strong NovaSeq placements, and upward analyst revisions prove the core business is strengthening and can power through near-term headwinds.
CORE TENSION
Can the accelerating, high-margin consumables business, driven by the new NovaSeq X cycle, generate enough growth to offset the forced, value-destructive divestiture of GRAIL and increasing competitive pressure?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Bear case is winning. The 'Next 6 Month Tangible Risks' module quantifies multiple high-impact, high-probability negative catalysts, chiefly the mandated GRAIL divestiture and competitive cannibalization of high-margin consumables.
BEAR VIEW
The GRAIL divestiture is a forced sale in a tough market, guaranteeing a massive loss. Meanwhile, competitors are actively cannibalizing the core consumables business, structurally impairing future growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb 5, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & FY2026 Guidance Watch: FY2026 revenue growth guidance. Bears expect guidance below consensus due to pricing pressure and competitive dynamics, especially in high-throughput consumables. |
Anytime (Deadline Q2 2026) | GRAIL Divestiture Announcement Watch: Terms of the sale or spin-off. Specifically, the total value write-down and any ongoing cash funding required from Illumina. |
Next 6 Months | U.S. Geopolitical Action on China Watch: Escalation of Chinese genomics firms from the 'Unverified List' to the 'Entity List' or passage of a BIOSECURE-like bill. |
Next 6 Months | Major Pharma 2026 Outlooks Watch: Commentary on R&D budgets and capital expenditure discipline from large pharmaceutical customers in their earnings calls (e.g., Pfizer, Roche). |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 12, 2025 | Investor Day Details: Hosted an investor day focused on long-term strategy, emphasizing the shift towards clinical genomics and the potential of multiomics to drive future growth. | Rose significantly by 3.8% $97.38 -> $101.11 |
Sep 9, 2025 | New Product Presentation Details: Presented data on the new NovaSeq X series at a healthcare conference, highlighting its capability to sequence over 20,000 genomes per year, driving down costs. | Fell notably by -2.8% $98.22 -> $95.49 |
Oct 30, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Reported Q3 revenue of $1.08B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.34, beating consensus estimates. Company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, citing strong clinical market demand. | Surged +24.8% $99.01 -> $123.54 |
Dec 1, 2025 | Strategic Collaboration Details: Announced a collaboration and strategic investment in MyOme's MPH Trial, aimed at demonstrating the value of whole-genome sequencing in healthcare. | Slight -0.9% pullback $128.72 -> $127.55 |
Jan 6, 2026 | Product Launch Details: Illumina launched its Illumina Connected Multiomics software, a cloud-based platform designed to streamline the analysis of complex multiomic datasets for researchers. | Rose significantly by 4.1% $141.33 -> $147.11 |
Jan 13, 2026 | Preliminary Q4 & FY2025 Results Details: Company announced preliminary Q4 revenue of ~$1.16B and FY25 revenue of ~$4.34B, beating analyst estimates. Ex-China growth was a positive signal at +7% for the quarter. | Modest 1.0% gain $145.55 -> $146.99 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is trading with explosive volatility (4.7x S&P 500). The Bearish sentiment, driven by the GRAIL overhang and competitive threats, alongside a contested moat creates a poor risk/reward. Exposure must be capped until visibility improves.
Diversification Alternatives
A
SECTORUnlike ILMN, Agilent (A) has a more diversified business across diagnostics, genomics, and applied markets, offering greater stability. It lacks a major, value-destructive overhang like the GRAIL divestiture.
WAT
SECTORWaters Corp (WAT) is a focused leader in chromatography and mass spectrometry, avoiding the intense price competition of the sequencing market. It has a clean balance sheet and a consistent history of strong free cash flow.
Illumina is transitioning from a high-growth genomics monopolist into a mature, recurring-revenue business, with its valuation hinging on the successful customer upgrade cycle to the new NovaSeq X platform and stabilizing its core clinical end-markets.
Filter all news through the lens of the NovaSeq X adoption cycle and clinical market stabilization. The key debate is whether the new platform can re-accelerate growth amid rising competition and cautious research spending.
Reports of NovaSeq X placements exceeding 100+ per quarter, particularly in clinical labs (>60% of placements). Evidence of consumables 'pull-through' on the new platform accelerating to double-digit growth. Announcements of large-scale population sequencing projects utilizing the NovaSeq X platform. FY2026 revenue guidance exceeding 4-6% growth.
Competitors like Pacific Biosciences or Ultima Genomics winning significant contracts from former Illumina-exclusive customers. A slowdown in NovaSeq X placements below ~270/year. Clinical consumables growth ex-China falling below the mid-teens percentage range. Any material negative financial impact from the completed SomaLogic acquisition.
Quarterly fluctuations in academic/research lab demand, as this segment is already known to be constrained. Early-stage announcements from long-read sequencing competitors without commercial traction. Individual studies highlighting niche applications, which don't affect the large-scale clinical and research markets that drive revenue.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful upgrade cycle to the NovaSeq X series of sequencing instruments. Launched in late 2022, this platform reduces the cost per genome to ~$200. Success is defined by placing ~270+ instruments annually and driving a corresponding high-single-digit increase in high-margin sequencing consumables, which account for over 65% of revenue. In Q4 2025, over 60% of the 100+ placements were to clinical customers, signaling adoption in the key growth market.
Sequencing Instruments & Consumables
$4.0B TTM (93% of Total) · 70% MarginWhat It Is
Sequencing Instruments: NovaSeq X Plus, NovaSeq 6000, MiSeq, NextSeq. Consumables: Proprietary reagents, flow cells, and library preparation kits required for each sequencing run on Illumina's closed-ecosystem machines.
Who Pays & How
Research institutions (e.g., Broad Institute), pharmaceutical companies (e.g., AstraZeneca, Merck), and clinical diagnostic labs pay for a combination of instruments (capex) and consumables (opex). They are locked into the ecosystem by the high initial cost of the instrument, established workflows, and data analysis pipelines tailored to Illumina's technology, creating high switching costs.
Competition
Microarrays
$0.3B TTM (7% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
BeadArray and iScan systems: devices and consumables for genotyping, which analyze specific points of genetic variation rather than sequencing the entire genome.
Who Pays & How
Consumer genomics companies (e.g., 23andMe), agricultural biotechnology firms, and researchers pay for a lower-cost method of genetic analysis for less complex applications than full sequencing.
Competition
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